[h=1]How to bet New York-Minnesota[/h]
NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 16 has arrived and includes a Sunday night matchup between the Giants and Vikings. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: New York Giants atMinnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Opened Minnesota -4; now Minnesota -6.5
Total: Opened 44.5; remains 44.5
[h=2]Against the spread picks[/h]Dave Tuley says
Public perception: The public is siding with the Vikings, partly because they've been very good to bettors at 11-3 against the spread this season but also because Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended for this game.
Wiseguys' view: The line for this game opened Minnesota -4 but went to -5.5 when it became clearer that Beckham would be taking an extended holiday. The sharps have been grabbing the Giants +6 when it gets to that number.
Tuley's take: I was almost expecting this number to steam even more with Beckham out, as there's often an overreaction to a team losing its star player like this. Still I think Eli Manning and the Giants offense will do just fine making up for the loss of OBJ by having other receivers step up. The Vikings have overachieved all year, but this is the most points they've been asked to lay, and I'll count on them not being able to cover in this unfamiliar role.
The pick: Giants
Erin Rynning: These are two organizations heading in opposite directions. The Vikings continued their 2015 ascension with a dominant win over the Bear last week, vaulting their record to 9-5 -- and, more importantly, 11-3 ATS. Interestingly, the Vikings have largely been ignored in the betting markets throughout the season. This is a young, well-coached bunch that figures to continue to show improvement.
Meanwhile, the Giants show erosion all over the field while playing in the weakened NFC East keeps their season alive. Obviously the loss of Beckham is a major hit for the Giants on a team devoid of playmakers. In addition the Vikings figure to return strong defender Anthony Barr. Lay the points with Minnesota on Sunday night.
The pick: Vikings
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog: The Giants offense will be hampered by the loss of Beckham. Minnesota will play with a hurting Adrian Peterson, who tweaked his ankle in the last game. That will put the onus on the defensive side of the ball for this one.
The Vikings got back in the win column last week after a pair of losses, as they beat Chicago 38-17. While it would appear by the score that Minnesota found its offense, the 38 points were generated on just 350 total yards, and the Vikings had not topped the 20-point mark in their previous four games. The Giants have played 11 of their past 16 to the under on the road versus a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is now 30-13 to the under after scoring 30 points or more.
The pick: Under
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]228.5 passing yards by Teddy Bridgewater (O/U -110)
John Parolin: Bridgewater has back-to-back games with at least 230 yards, including 335 yards two weeks ago against the Cardinals defense. Bridgewater has hardly shed the game-manager label this season, but 228.5 is a pretty low mark -- the league's starting quarterbacks threw for at least 229 yards in 280 of the 448 games this season, and plenty of the remaining 168 were injury cases as well.
If 62.5 percent of starts hit 229 or more, is Bridgewater against the Giants in the bottom 37.5 percent of quarterback-opponent matchups? New York's defense hasn't struck fear in the hearts of many opposing quarterbacks. In the first half of games (in most cases, before the score dictates the offensive game plan) opponents are dropping back to pass at the sixth-highest rate in the league against the Giants. Bridgewater would need to drop back 38 times using his paltry 6.14 yards per dropback season average, but in the past two weeks that's up to 8.7 -- and that includes a game against the Cardinals. Using that figure, he needs only 27 dropbacks. Assuming the actual average falls somewhere between those two, 228.5 is too low for it to be a pick 'em. Take the over.
The play: Over
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NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 16 has arrived and includes a Sunday night matchup between the Giants and Vikings. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 44.5; remains 44.5
[h=2]Against the spread picks[/h]Dave Tuley says
Public perception: The public is siding with the Vikings, partly because they've been very good to bettors at 11-3 against the spread this season but also because Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended for this game.
Wiseguys' view: The line for this game opened Minnesota -4 but went to -5.5 when it became clearer that Beckham would be taking an extended holiday. The sharps have been grabbing the Giants +6 when it gets to that number.
Tuley's take: I was almost expecting this number to steam even more with Beckham out, as there's often an overreaction to a team losing its star player like this. Still I think Eli Manning and the Giants offense will do just fine making up for the loss of OBJ by having other receivers step up. The Vikings have overachieved all year, but this is the most points they've been asked to lay, and I'll count on them not being able to cover in this unfamiliar role.
The pick: Giants
Erin Rynning: These are two organizations heading in opposite directions. The Vikings continued their 2015 ascension with a dominant win over the Bear last week, vaulting their record to 9-5 -- and, more importantly, 11-3 ATS. Interestingly, the Vikings have largely been ignored in the betting markets throughout the season. This is a young, well-coached bunch that figures to continue to show improvement.
Meanwhile, the Giants show erosion all over the field while playing in the weakened NFC East keeps their season alive. Obviously the loss of Beckham is a major hit for the Giants on a team devoid of playmakers. In addition the Vikings figure to return strong defender Anthony Barr. Lay the points with Minnesota on Sunday night.
The pick: Vikings
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog: The Giants offense will be hampered by the loss of Beckham. Minnesota will play with a hurting Adrian Peterson, who tweaked his ankle in the last game. That will put the onus on the defensive side of the ball for this one.
The Vikings got back in the win column last week after a pair of losses, as they beat Chicago 38-17. While it would appear by the score that Minnesota found its offense, the 38 points were generated on just 350 total yards, and the Vikings had not topped the 20-point mark in their previous four games. The Giants have played 11 of their past 16 to the under on the road versus a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is now 30-13 to the under after scoring 30 points or more.
The pick: Under
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]228.5 passing yards by Teddy Bridgewater (O/U -110)
John Parolin: Bridgewater has back-to-back games with at least 230 yards, including 335 yards two weeks ago against the Cardinals defense. Bridgewater has hardly shed the game-manager label this season, but 228.5 is a pretty low mark -- the league's starting quarterbacks threw for at least 229 yards in 280 of the 448 games this season, and plenty of the remaining 168 were injury cases as well.
If 62.5 percent of starts hit 229 or more, is Bridgewater against the Giants in the bottom 37.5 percent of quarterback-opponent matchups? New York's defense hasn't struck fear in the hearts of many opposing quarterbacks. In the first half of games (in most cases, before the score dictates the offensive game plan) opponents are dropping back to pass at the sixth-highest rate in the league against the Giants. Bridgewater would need to drop back 38 times using his paltry 6.14 yards per dropback season average, but in the past two weeks that's up to 8.7 -- and that includes a game against the Cardinals. Using that figure, he needs only 27 dropbacks. Assuming the actual average falls somewhere between those two, 228.5 is too low for it to be a pick 'em. Take the over.
The play: Over
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