[h=1]How to bet Cincinnati-Denver[/h]NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis of Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals atDenver Broncos[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -3.5; remains Denver -3.5
Total: Opened 40.5; now 39
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says...
Public perception: The Broncos are still more of a public team, but this would be a lot more balanced if Andy Dalton was starting for the Bengals instead of AJ McCarron.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: More sharps are landing on Cincinnati +3.5, though it's a lot more split (and actually more on Denver) when books go to -3 (-120).
Tuley's take: Monday night games have been very good to me this year, and I hope the 'dogs bark in the MNF finale here. McCarron did just fine in his first start against San Francisco last week and he has enough weapons to take on the Broncos No. 1 defense. The Bengals counter with the No. 10 defense themselves, and we've seen Brock Osweiler's production slow down a little from his fast start.
The pick: Bengals
Wunderdog: The QB matchup is the story here as both teams have seen their starter go down to injury. Denver continues with Osweiler, while Cincinnati goes with McCarron. The Denver offense continues to struggle, though. AfterPeyton Manning threw 17 interceptions, Osweiler has added four more to that total and it seems that he is having trouble adjusting after halftime. Opposing coaches are taking away what he was doing in the first half -- Denver has been blanked in the second half by a margin of 36-0 in its last three games.
The Broncos have had to rely on a stout defense to stay in and win games, but as the offense struggles and they spend more time on the field, that becomes increasingly difficult. We saw the cumulative effect last week against Pittsburgh when Denver gave up a season high in points. The Bengals have truly been road warriors -- they are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven on the road, while the bright Monday Night lights have not been good to the Broncos, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven such games. Make the play on Cincinnati.
The pick: Bengals
[h=2]Over/under pick[/h]Erin Rynning: No question, the Bengals have answered many naysayers with their sparkling 11-3 record. However, after their spectacular start, this is a club that's been stuck in neutral. Over their last six games, the Bengals are just 3-3, while outgaining their opposition by just 84 yards. Now throw in McCarron trying to duplicate Dalton's numbers and the drop-off continues.
Meanwhile, the Broncos will be looking for their own answers after blowing a double-digit lead last week in Pittsburgh. Look for their defensive unit to bounce back in a big way. Obviously, it's this unit that has shined all season long and that put forward its worst performance of the year in the loss to the Steelers. In fact, expect a defensive struggle on Monday night as both teams take the conservative route on offense, trying to win with defense. I'm on the under with a lean to the Broncos.
The pick: Under, lean Broncos
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]5.0 QB sacks combined by both teams (Over -120, Under EVEN)
John Parolin: No half-sack on this prop, so a push is in play -- but these pass rushes won't need the push. A year ago, Cincinnati had 20 sacks, fewer than every team in the league and both J.J. Watt and Justin Houston individually. The Bengals are two away from doubling their 2014 total, and Osweiler has been sacked 19 times over six games, including two games where he'd have accounted for the 5.0 by himself.
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</article>The Bengals are primed to give Osweiler some trouble Monday night (especially considering the Broncos are averaging 3.0 yards per rush in their last two games). If that's not enough, the other side of the ball looks even better. The Broncos are tied with the Patriots (47) for the most sacks in the league. The Bengals offense doesn't require the quarterback to hold on to the ball long, but it took Dalton a few years in that offense to keep his sack totals down. Dalton was sacked 70 times in his first two seasons and has been sacked 70 tiomes in the three seasons since. With seven sacks in his first seven quarters under center and facing the league's most productive pass rush, it's possible that McCarron reaches a push on his own. Between the two of them, don't worry about the -120. It's still the right call.
The pick: Over
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis of Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 40.5; now 39
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says...
Public perception: The Broncos are still more of a public team, but this would be a lot more balanced if Andy Dalton was starting for the Bengals instead of AJ McCarron.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: More sharps are landing on Cincinnati +3.5, though it's a lot more split (and actually more on Denver) when books go to -3 (-120).
Tuley's take: Monday night games have been very good to me this year, and I hope the 'dogs bark in the MNF finale here. McCarron did just fine in his first start against San Francisco last week and he has enough weapons to take on the Broncos No. 1 defense. The Bengals counter with the No. 10 defense themselves, and we've seen Brock Osweiler's production slow down a little from his fast start.
The pick: Bengals
Wunderdog: The QB matchup is the story here as both teams have seen their starter go down to injury. Denver continues with Osweiler, while Cincinnati goes with McCarron. The Denver offense continues to struggle, though. AfterPeyton Manning threw 17 interceptions, Osweiler has added four more to that total and it seems that he is having trouble adjusting after halftime. Opposing coaches are taking away what he was doing in the first half -- Denver has been blanked in the second half by a margin of 36-0 in its last three games.
The Broncos have had to rely on a stout defense to stay in and win games, but as the offense struggles and they spend more time on the field, that becomes increasingly difficult. We saw the cumulative effect last week against Pittsburgh when Denver gave up a season high in points. The Bengals have truly been road warriors -- they are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven on the road, while the bright Monday Night lights have not been good to the Broncos, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven such games. Make the play on Cincinnati.
The pick: Bengals
[h=2]Over/under pick[/h]Erin Rynning: No question, the Bengals have answered many naysayers with their sparkling 11-3 record. However, after their spectacular start, this is a club that's been stuck in neutral. Over their last six games, the Bengals are just 3-3, while outgaining their opposition by just 84 yards. Now throw in McCarron trying to duplicate Dalton's numbers and the drop-off continues.
Meanwhile, the Broncos will be looking for their own answers after blowing a double-digit lead last week in Pittsburgh. Look for their defensive unit to bounce back in a big way. Obviously, it's this unit that has shined all season long and that put forward its worst performance of the year in the loss to the Steelers. In fact, expect a defensive struggle on Monday night as both teams take the conservative route on offense, trying to win with defense. I'm on the under with a lean to the Broncos.
The pick: Under, lean Broncos
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]5.0 QB sacks combined by both teams (Over -120, Under EVEN)
John Parolin: No half-sack on this prop, so a push is in play -- but these pass rushes won't need the push. A year ago, Cincinnati had 20 sacks, fewer than every team in the league and both J.J. Watt and Justin Houston individually. The Bengals are two away from doubling their 2014 total, and Osweiler has been sacked 19 times over six games, including two games where he'd have accounted for the 5.0 by himself.
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</article>The Bengals are primed to give Osweiler some trouble Monday night (especially considering the Broncos are averaging 3.0 yards per rush in their last two games). If that's not enough, the other side of the ball looks even better. The Broncos are tied with the Patriots (47) for the most sacks in the league. The Bengals offense doesn't require the quarterback to hold on to the ball long, but it took Dalton a few years in that offense to keep his sack totals down. Dalton was sacked 70 times in his first two seasons and has been sacked 70 tiomes in the three seasons since. With seven sacks in his first seven quarters under center and facing the league's most productive pass rush, it's possible that McCarron reaches a push on his own. Between the two of them, don't worry about the -120. It's still the right call.
The pick: Over
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