[h=1]Week 17 early NFL line moves[/h]
- Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 17 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- As we've discussed in these opening line report columns all season, the NFL results from one week will often have a significant impact on the next week's lines -- but that's even more magnified for Week 17 as the regular-season comes to a close and some teams are in must-win situations while other teams will be resting their starters for the playoffs.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Actually, the two conference's No. 1 seeds entering Week 16 -- the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers in the NFC and the New England Patriots in the AFC -- both lost, so they both failed to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
In one of the biggest moves from the advance lines that were posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook last Tuesday, the Patriots went from a 3.5-point road favorite at Miami (when it was thought they might have already clinched the No. 1 seed), and now after losing 26-20 in overtime to the New York Jets, that number has ballooned to New England minus-8.
That game also impacted the Jets' Week 17 line. They were 1.5-point road underdogs at Buffalo, but after beating the Patriots and now just needing to win to clinch a wild-card spot, they were reopened as 1.5-point road favorites at the Westgate. Some offshore books opened as high as minus-3 and the line at the Westgate was bet to New York minus-2.5.
In the NFC, the Arizona Cardinals' 38-8 rout of the Green Bay Packers had a big impact on both of their Week 17 lines. The Cardinals were 2.5-point home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks on the advance line (at the time that line was set, it was thought the Seahawks would need the game more), but the line was reopened Arizona minus-3.5, as the Seahawks are locked into a wild-card team while the Cardinals can still catch Carolina for home-field advantage in the NFC.
The Packers were 5.5-point home favorites versus the Minnesota Vikings, as there was a chance they could have caught Arizona for the No. 2 seed, but with their loss that's no longer an incentive and the line was reopened Green Bay minus-3 (though that could change depending on the outcome of the Vikings' Sunday night game against the New York Giants).
Here's a rundown of the other Week 17 games that have seen adjustments from last week's advance lines or have moved in early betting on Sunday afternoon/early evening. Pay attention during the week as coaches often give hints about how much their starters will play depending on how the playoff scenarios unfold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: This was Carolina minus-10 on the advance line. After the Panthers lost for the first time this season (and the Buccaneers also lost), it was lowered to 9.5, but early betting pushed it back to double digits, as Carolina still needs to win to clinch home-field advantage.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: This was also a 10-point spread on the advance line, but after the Ravens upset the Steelers it was reopened at Cincinnati minus-7 at the Westgate. However, this could also be impacted by the result of the Bengals' Monday night game at Denver.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: This game is off the board, as oddsmakers will be waiting for their weekly updates of Andrew Luck's potential return to the lineup, plus Matt Hasselbeck's mounting injuries (he has already listed doubtful on the Don Best Sports screen).
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is a 4-point favorite? Yep. The Redskins clinched the NFC East on Saturday night and are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC.
The rest of the lines for the full 16-game Week 17 card have been relatively stable. We'll see how these lines get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers on Monday morning and then during the course of the week.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 17 Openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
</header></aside>Note: Home teams in CAPS. The first number is the Westgate's advance line from last Tuesday; the second number is the Sunday afternoon "opener"; the third number is the move as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.FAVORITE UNDERDOG ADVANCE OPENER MOVE *Jets Bills 1.5 -1.5 -2.5 Panthers Buccaneers -10 -9.5 -10 Patriots Dolphins -3.5 -8 Bengals Ravens -10 -7 Falcons Saints OFF OFF Texans Jaguars OFF -5.5 Steelers Browns -9.5 -8.5 -9.5 Chiefs Raiders -7 -6.5 Colts Titans -3 OFF Cowboys Redskins PK -4 Bears Lions -1.5 -1.5 Giants Eagles -2.5 (-120) -3.5 Packers Vikings -5.5 -3 Broncos Chargers -9.5 -7 Rams 49ers -2.5 -3.5 *Cardinsls Seahawks 2.5 -3.5 An asterisk(*) denotes a change of favorite from the advance line.
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