[h=1]Chalk's Vegas Experts' guide to betting the College Football Playoff[/h]CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
There's been some tremendous action in the college football bowl season so far, but everything that's happened is just a prelude to the main event that is the College Football Playoff.
The second edition of the Football Bowl Subdivision playoff bracket features two New Year's Eve bowl games -- the College Football Playoff semifinals -- to determine who plays for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Jan. 11 in Glendale, Arizona. The undefeated (and top-ranked) Clemson Tigersface the Oklahoma Sooners in the Capital One Orange Bowl, while the Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
If you've read our bowl betting guide, you know that our experts have strong insights -- and they're back to give you their picks for the two CFP semifinals. Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica and Warren Sharp are here to point you in the right direction when you're betting two of the biggest football games of the year.
[h=2]Capital One Orange Bowl[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
4:00 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
[h=2]#1 Clemson Tigers vs.
#4 Oklahoma Sooners[/h]Line opened: Oklahoma -3, O/U 65
Current line: Oklahoma -3.5, O/U 63.5
PickCenter consensus: 51 percent pick Clemson ATS
Steele: Even though the committee ranked these teams No. 1 and No. 4, it's the No. 4 team that's favored. This game will feature two of the top quarterbacks in the country in Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield. Both teams also have 1,000-yard running backs and explosive wide receivers. Clemson was plus-159 yards per game versus bowl teams, while Oklahoma was plus-177 yards per game. The Sooners were arguably the most impressive team in the country down the stretch, but they did face TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State when they were helmed by backup quarterbacks.
Since their loss to Texas, Oklahoma has averaged 300 yards per game rushing and 293 yards per game passing. The Sooners have a slight edge on defense and enter with my No. 1-ranked pass efficiency defense. I've had Oklahoma No. 2 overall in my ratings the past four weeks, and they are the most complete team on offense, defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Final score: Oklahoma 37, Clemson 31
Harris: More than any other reason, Clemson has taken the next step because its offense has developed an effective inside A-gap rushing presence. Three factors facilitated this improvement: a featured back in Wayne Gallman (who is a more physical downhill runner than the perimeter, in-space types who led the Tigers' rush attack in the past), vastly improved offensive line play and a renewed program emphasis on the need for a more physical dimension. That emphasis on physicality was perhaps spurred by a realization that, despite the rise of potent modern shotgun offenses, the game is still about mass -- and teams that base out of mostly 10 personnel don't win national championships.
Pair Gallman with an ubur talented group of receivers and Watson, a guy who as a sophomore already looks like the best quarterback in school history, and you get a formidable offense whose only weakness is its struggles to finish drives, mostly because of turnovers. The Tigers won the turnover battle in just five of their 13 wins, but they can't expect to lose it Thursday and pick up win No. 14 against a team like Oklahoma.
The Sooners are just as complete offensively, though the offensive line is far from a dominant unit. Defensively, Oklahoma takes the ball away with regularity and Clemson's chances probably hinge on breaking the season-long advantage in turnover margin that Oklahoma holds.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Final score: Oklahoma 35, Clemson 28
Coughlin: When I look at this game, I can't help but think of how each team got to this point in the season. With Clemson, I don't think a team could have benefited more from some time off than the Tigers. They haven't had to go through a season in recent years in which they were the No. 1 ranked team in the country, receiving their opponent's best effort week in and week out. I think that wears on a team, which is why I think a couple of weeks off really helped coach Dabo Swinney to get his squad ready.
The Sooners played their best ball late because they knew they had to have every win after their loss to rival Texas, who isn't even playing in a bowl game this year.
When it comes to trying to predict what's going to happen when these two teams line up on New Year's Eve, I can't lie -- I'm a little hesitant, because last year Oklahoma was my favorite pick of the bowl season and they got housed by Clemson. I'll take the points, and roll with Dabo.
ATS pick: Clemson
Final score: Clemson 31, Oklahoma 28
Fallica: None of the four CFP participants benefited from the down time more than Clemson. The Tigers defense was able to regain its legs after tailing off down the stretch, having allowed touchdowns on 24 percent of defensive drives in the final six games after allowing TDs in just 10 percent of drives in their first seven games. WR Artavis Scott also had enough time to recover from knee surgery.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield deservedly gets a lot of credit, but against the best defense Oklahoma faced this year -- vs. Tennessee on the road -- it didn't start well; Mayfield was 8-for-25 with two interceptions through three quarters. The Sooners were saved by fourth-quarter heroics, along with a little help from the Vols that night. Then came a mind-numbing loss to Texas in which the Sooners allowed 313 rushing yards, including 115 to quarterback Jerrod Heard.
Enter Watson, who is by far the best QB Oklahoma will face this year. The Tigers are the least-talked-about No. 1 I can remember. Everyone is seemingly expecting them to lose or punching holes in their credentials, yet here they are, still displaying a zero in the loss column. It will stay that way after the Orange Bowl. While the Oklahoma revenge tour has been a powerful angle and storyline this year, the undefeated Tigers can still play the disrespect card too. Watson and a rejuvenated defense lead the Tigers to the College Football Playoff National Championship.
ATS pick: Clemson
Final score: Clemson 31, Oklahoma 27
Sharp: Count me in with the crowd that believes the Clemson defense is slightly overrated. This year they played just three offenses that rank inside the top 40 in efficiency and allowed 41 points against NC State (ranked 30th) and 37 to North Carolina (ranked 19th). Their lone tremendous performance came against Florida State, a significantly slower-paced run team that's not nearly as successful as the Sooners. Oklahoma is in the top five in offensive efficiency and runs a significantly faster, game-adjusted tempo than any of those other offenses.
The Tigers offense has 25 turnovers on the season -- 12th worst in the country -- and Oklahoma is 17th in the country in takeaways despite playing only 12 games (on a per game basis they rank seventh best). I can envision a defensive score by the Sooners or at a minimum at least one short field, and Oklahoma has been tremendous inside the red zone, making the third most trips of any team and converting at a 68 percent rate -- also among the best in the country.
Before playing the Tar Heels, Clemson played three straight weeks against offenses that ranked 77th or worse in explosive plays, 89th or worse at avoiding third down, 103rd or worse on third down and 92nd or worse in the red zone. Allowing these teams to go the length of the field, given those metrics -- and allowing an average of 24 points per game in the process -- is far from impressive.
The play: Oklahoma team total over 34 points
[h=2]Goodyear Cotton Bowl[/h]8:00 p.m. | AT&T Stadium, Arlington Texas
[h=2]#2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs.
#3 Michigan State Spartans[/h]Line opened: Alabama -9.5, O/U 49.5
Current line: Alabama -10, O/U 46
PickCenter consensus: 67 percent pick Michigan State ATS
Steele: The winner of this game will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship to play the winner between Clemson and Oklahoma. These schools have just one prior meeting, which was in the 2010 Capital One Bowl, and Alabama won by six touchdowns. The Crimson Tide have the talent edge across the board, with the exception of the quarterback position, as Michigan State's Connor Cook will likely be a high draft pick after this season.
Alabama is one-dimensional, but that one dimension is outstanding, as it features the Heisman Trophy winner in running back Derrick Henry. Michigan State has played its best in big games and, along with the Crimson Tide, has an outstanding defense. With neither team likely to be able to move the ball much, this game has the making of a low-scoring affair, which has me siding with the under for my pick.
ATS pick: UNDER 46
Final score: Alabama 24, Michigan State 13
Harris: We picked Michigan State to win it all back in August, before dropping them to No. 2 behind Oklahoma after the second week of the season. We didn't think Alabama would repeat as SEC champs, more because of a really bad overestimation of the competition than selling the Tide too short. Now that the playoff is set, Clemson is the only team of the four we don't take seriously as far as their chances to win it all, and any pairing of the other three looks like a fair fight.
Alabama is an outstanding team with a great mentality heading into this game, but the Spartans fit the profile of a team that can beat the Crimson Tide. Nobody can run the ball on Alabama, so any team that hopes to beat the Tide must be able to keep the scoring down, hit some plays in the passing game and win on special teams. In Cook and Aaron Burbridge, the Spartans have a pitch-and-catch combo that gives them a chance, and Alabama has repeatedly demonstrated it's capable of game-changing special teams lapses.
Michigan State will naturally try to limit Henry and make Jake Cokerwin the game with his arm. Limiting Henry is easier said than done, of course, but the Alabama offense has succeeded not because it's explosive and dominant and putting the game out of reach early but rather because it wears opponents down in the second half. The thing we like best about the Michigan State's chances here is that the Spartans defense is absolutely committed to wanting to tackle physically for four quarters in this game. Alabama is not going to be able to make this team quit, lose hope or give up, as the Tide's relentless physicality has done to so many others.
As of today we make no claim to have any idea who's going to win this one, but it will be a four-quarter game, and covering double digits seems a tall task, even for a focused SEC champion.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Final score: Alabama 20, Michigan State 17
Coughlin: With so much time to look at this matchup and watch film on both opponents, I'm going back to my initial thoughts from just after this matchup was announced. My biggest concern with Alabama all year has been the QB position, and when you get to this point in the season you need to get crunch-time production from the guy taking snaps. We saw it last year with the Crimson Tide -- we praised quarterback Blake Sims all year, and then when they needed him most last year vs. Ohio State he played his worst game of the year.
I trust Michigan State in this spot. They will not be overwhelmed by the situation; they will get production from Cook, their fifth-year senior QB, and they will be prepared by their head coach Mark Dantonio. I'll take the points.
The pick: Michigan State
Final score: Alabama 27, Michigan State 23
Fallica: I want to take the points, I really do. And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Spartans pull off another upset over a top-10 team, as they're 7-1 in their past eight games vs. top-10 teams, with five wins coming as an underdog. But something is holding me back.
I don't know if it's seeing Cook get rattled vs. Iowa and trying to imagine what would happen if Alabama, which has gotten pressure without blitzing all season, knocks him around. Maybe it's seeing Michigan State having trouble maintaining long drives; the Spartans have 16 TD drives of 10-plus plays this year, while Alabama has allowed only one of those all year, so the Spartans are going need to score on some big plays.
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</article>Alabama has had trouble of its own scoring points, and if Michigan State can force the Tide into third-and-long, things will be interesting. But Alabama has received a lot of help scoring via nonoffensive ways -- ranking second in the nation with eight such scores -- and other than the miracle at the Big House, Michigan State has struggled at times on special teams.
I can totally see this game being something along the lines of 17-13 in the fourth quarter, only to see the Tide go on a drive as they did to end the LSU game and win by double digits.
ATS pick: Alabama
Final score: Alabama 24, Michigan State 13
ESPN INSIDER
There's been some tremendous action in the college football bowl season so far, but everything that's happened is just a prelude to the main event that is the College Football Playoff.
The second edition of the Football Bowl Subdivision playoff bracket features two New Year's Eve bowl games -- the College Football Playoff semifinals -- to determine who plays for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Jan. 11 in Glendale, Arizona. The undefeated (and top-ranked) Clemson Tigersface the Oklahoma Sooners in the Capital One Orange Bowl, while the Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
If you've read our bowl betting guide, you know that our experts have strong insights -- and they're back to give you their picks for the two CFP semifinals. Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica and Warren Sharp are here to point you in the right direction when you're betting two of the biggest football games of the year.
[h=2]Capital One Orange Bowl[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
4:00 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
[h=2]#1 Clemson Tigers vs.
#4 Oklahoma Sooners[/h]Line opened: Oklahoma -3, O/U 65
Current line: Oklahoma -3.5, O/U 63.5
PickCenter consensus: 51 percent pick Clemson ATS
Steele: Even though the committee ranked these teams No. 1 and No. 4, it's the No. 4 team that's favored. This game will feature two of the top quarterbacks in the country in Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield. Both teams also have 1,000-yard running backs and explosive wide receivers. Clemson was plus-159 yards per game versus bowl teams, while Oklahoma was plus-177 yards per game. The Sooners were arguably the most impressive team in the country down the stretch, but they did face TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State when they were helmed by backup quarterbacks.
Since their loss to Texas, Oklahoma has averaged 300 yards per game rushing and 293 yards per game passing. The Sooners have a slight edge on defense and enter with my No. 1-ranked pass efficiency defense. I've had Oklahoma No. 2 overall in my ratings the past four weeks, and they are the most complete team on offense, defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Final score: Oklahoma 37, Clemson 31
Harris: More than any other reason, Clemson has taken the next step because its offense has developed an effective inside A-gap rushing presence. Three factors facilitated this improvement: a featured back in Wayne Gallman (who is a more physical downhill runner than the perimeter, in-space types who led the Tigers' rush attack in the past), vastly improved offensive line play and a renewed program emphasis on the need for a more physical dimension. That emphasis on physicality was perhaps spurred by a realization that, despite the rise of potent modern shotgun offenses, the game is still about mass -- and teams that base out of mostly 10 personnel don't win national championships.
Pair Gallman with an ubur talented group of receivers and Watson, a guy who as a sophomore already looks like the best quarterback in school history, and you get a formidable offense whose only weakness is its struggles to finish drives, mostly because of turnovers. The Tigers won the turnover battle in just five of their 13 wins, but they can't expect to lose it Thursday and pick up win No. 14 against a team like Oklahoma.
The Sooners are just as complete offensively, though the offensive line is far from a dominant unit. Defensively, Oklahoma takes the ball away with regularity and Clemson's chances probably hinge on breaking the season-long advantage in turnover margin that Oklahoma holds.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Final score: Oklahoma 35, Clemson 28
Coughlin: When I look at this game, I can't help but think of how each team got to this point in the season. With Clemson, I don't think a team could have benefited more from some time off than the Tigers. They haven't had to go through a season in recent years in which they were the No. 1 ranked team in the country, receiving their opponent's best effort week in and week out. I think that wears on a team, which is why I think a couple of weeks off really helped coach Dabo Swinney to get his squad ready.
The Sooners played their best ball late because they knew they had to have every win after their loss to rival Texas, who isn't even playing in a bowl game this year.
When it comes to trying to predict what's going to happen when these two teams line up on New Year's Eve, I can't lie -- I'm a little hesitant, because last year Oklahoma was my favorite pick of the bowl season and they got housed by Clemson. I'll take the points, and roll with Dabo.
ATS pick: Clemson
Final score: Clemson 31, Oklahoma 28
Fallica: None of the four CFP participants benefited from the down time more than Clemson. The Tigers defense was able to regain its legs after tailing off down the stretch, having allowed touchdowns on 24 percent of defensive drives in the final six games after allowing TDs in just 10 percent of drives in their first seven games. WR Artavis Scott also had enough time to recover from knee surgery.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield deservedly gets a lot of credit, but against the best defense Oklahoma faced this year -- vs. Tennessee on the road -- it didn't start well; Mayfield was 8-for-25 with two interceptions through three quarters. The Sooners were saved by fourth-quarter heroics, along with a little help from the Vols that night. Then came a mind-numbing loss to Texas in which the Sooners allowed 313 rushing yards, including 115 to quarterback Jerrod Heard.
Enter Watson, who is by far the best QB Oklahoma will face this year. The Tigers are the least-talked-about No. 1 I can remember. Everyone is seemingly expecting them to lose or punching holes in their credentials, yet here they are, still displaying a zero in the loss column. It will stay that way after the Orange Bowl. While the Oklahoma revenge tour has been a powerful angle and storyline this year, the undefeated Tigers can still play the disrespect card too. Watson and a rejuvenated defense lead the Tigers to the College Football Playoff National Championship.
ATS pick: Clemson
Final score: Clemson 31, Oklahoma 27
Sharp: Count me in with the crowd that believes the Clemson defense is slightly overrated. This year they played just three offenses that rank inside the top 40 in efficiency and allowed 41 points against NC State (ranked 30th) and 37 to North Carolina (ranked 19th). Their lone tremendous performance came against Florida State, a significantly slower-paced run team that's not nearly as successful as the Sooners. Oklahoma is in the top five in offensive efficiency and runs a significantly faster, game-adjusted tempo than any of those other offenses.
The Tigers offense has 25 turnovers on the season -- 12th worst in the country -- and Oklahoma is 17th in the country in takeaways despite playing only 12 games (on a per game basis they rank seventh best). I can envision a defensive score by the Sooners or at a minimum at least one short field, and Oklahoma has been tremendous inside the red zone, making the third most trips of any team and converting at a 68 percent rate -- also among the best in the country.
Before playing the Tar Heels, Clemson played three straight weeks against offenses that ranked 77th or worse in explosive plays, 89th or worse at avoiding third down, 103rd or worse on third down and 92nd or worse in the red zone. Allowing these teams to go the length of the field, given those metrics -- and allowing an average of 24 points per game in the process -- is far from impressive.
The play: Oklahoma team total over 34 points
[h=2]Goodyear Cotton Bowl[/h]8:00 p.m. | AT&T Stadium, Arlington Texas
[h=2]#2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs.
#3 Michigan State Spartans[/h]Line opened: Alabama -9.5, O/U 49.5
Current line: Alabama -10, O/U 46
PickCenter consensus: 67 percent pick Michigan State ATS
Steele: The winner of this game will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship to play the winner between Clemson and Oklahoma. These schools have just one prior meeting, which was in the 2010 Capital One Bowl, and Alabama won by six touchdowns. The Crimson Tide have the talent edge across the board, with the exception of the quarterback position, as Michigan State's Connor Cook will likely be a high draft pick after this season.
Alabama is one-dimensional, but that one dimension is outstanding, as it features the Heisman Trophy winner in running back Derrick Henry. Michigan State has played its best in big games and, along with the Crimson Tide, has an outstanding defense. With neither team likely to be able to move the ball much, this game has the making of a low-scoring affair, which has me siding with the under for my pick.
ATS pick: UNDER 46
Final score: Alabama 24, Michigan State 13
Harris: We picked Michigan State to win it all back in August, before dropping them to No. 2 behind Oklahoma after the second week of the season. We didn't think Alabama would repeat as SEC champs, more because of a really bad overestimation of the competition than selling the Tide too short. Now that the playoff is set, Clemson is the only team of the four we don't take seriously as far as their chances to win it all, and any pairing of the other three looks like a fair fight.
Alabama is an outstanding team with a great mentality heading into this game, but the Spartans fit the profile of a team that can beat the Crimson Tide. Nobody can run the ball on Alabama, so any team that hopes to beat the Tide must be able to keep the scoring down, hit some plays in the passing game and win on special teams. In Cook and Aaron Burbridge, the Spartans have a pitch-and-catch combo that gives them a chance, and Alabama has repeatedly demonstrated it's capable of game-changing special teams lapses.
Michigan State will naturally try to limit Henry and make Jake Cokerwin the game with his arm. Limiting Henry is easier said than done, of course, but the Alabama offense has succeeded not because it's explosive and dominant and putting the game out of reach early but rather because it wears opponents down in the second half. The thing we like best about the Michigan State's chances here is that the Spartans defense is absolutely committed to wanting to tackle physically for four quarters in this game. Alabama is not going to be able to make this team quit, lose hope or give up, as the Tide's relentless physicality has done to so many others.
As of today we make no claim to have any idea who's going to win this one, but it will be a four-quarter game, and covering double digits seems a tall task, even for a focused SEC champion.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Final score: Alabama 20, Michigan State 17
Coughlin: With so much time to look at this matchup and watch film on both opponents, I'm going back to my initial thoughts from just after this matchup was announced. My biggest concern with Alabama all year has been the QB position, and when you get to this point in the season you need to get crunch-time production from the guy taking snaps. We saw it last year with the Crimson Tide -- we praised quarterback Blake Sims all year, and then when they needed him most last year vs. Ohio State he played his worst game of the year.
I trust Michigan State in this spot. They will not be overwhelmed by the situation; they will get production from Cook, their fifth-year senior QB, and they will be prepared by their head coach Mark Dantonio. I'll take the points.
The pick: Michigan State
Final score: Alabama 27, Michigan State 23
Fallica: I want to take the points, I really do. And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Spartans pull off another upset over a top-10 team, as they're 7-1 in their past eight games vs. top-10 teams, with five wins coming as an underdog. But something is holding me back.
I don't know if it's seeing Cook get rattled vs. Iowa and trying to imagine what would happen if Alabama, which has gotten pressure without blitzing all season, knocks him around. Maybe it's seeing Michigan State having trouble maintaining long drives; the Spartans have 16 TD drives of 10-plus plays this year, while Alabama has allowed only one of those all year, so the Spartans are going need to score on some big plays.
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</article>Alabama has had trouble of its own scoring points, and if Michigan State can force the Tide into third-and-long, things will be interesting. But Alabama has received a lot of help scoring via nonoffensive ways -- ranking second in the nation with eight such scores -- and other than the miracle at the Big House, Michigan State has struggled at times on special teams.
I can totally see this game being something along the lines of 17-13 in the fourth quarter, only to see the Tide go on a drive as they did to end the LSU game and win by double digits.
ATS pick: Alabama
Final score: Alabama 24, Michigan State 13
