Fore! 2016

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Jordan Spieth is coming off an historic year by winning the Masters and U.S. Open, three other PGA Tour titles and the FedEx Cup. His final tweet of 2015: "Would rather this year not end."

In the last 25 years, only four players have won majors in consecutive seasons — Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy. In the last 50 years, only four players have followed a multiple-major season by winning another major — Woods, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus and Lee Trevino.

And for all he did last year, Spieth could lose the No. 1 ranking this week.

Link: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d5b7edf688e942ca8a229537b82a0cab/new-year-pga-tour-raises-5-questions

- - - - - - - -

Climbing into the season slowly, so far . . .

Outrights:

A horses for courses venue . . .

J.J. Henry(150/1) e.w.
Scot Piercy(60/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Sony:

Outrights:

Matt Kuchar(22/1) e.w.
Troy Merritt(150/1) e.w.
Luke Donald(66/1) e.w.
Pat Perez(125/1) e.w.
Colt Knost(200/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Abu Dhabi:

Just getting to the computer before the off. With only a couple exceptions, a full blown effort made by me in capping this week, starting with being in on the action last week. But still rolling out plays plenty slow.

Martin Kaymer(18/1) e.w.
Chris Wood(66/1) e.w.
Andy Sullivan(50/1) e.w.
Alex Noren(200/1) e.w.

Chris Wood(50/1) First Round Leader

GL
 
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Kicking myself over not being able to enjoy a Fasth moment at 1000/1.

CareerBuilder:

Outrights:

Robert Garrigus(150/1) e.w.
Ollie Schniederjans(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(125/1) e.w.
Zac Blair(66/1) e.w.
Luke Donald(66/1) e.w.
Jason Dufner(40/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(40/1) e.w.
Kevin Na(33/1) e.w.

Vijay Singh(10/1) e.w.

- - Na arrives as a sympathetic bad movie; I was fired up about 40/1 on Mickelson until I learned about the changes to the course rotations; Dufner acquitted himself well while being tracked last week, but this doesn't seem a strong spot; not the right spot for Donald, so tag him a value loser; Blair was a nice revelation for me last week, and while his distance is a long term issue, his golf rat genes and fearless approach suggest riding him while he's hot, and he may be compatible with pro-am formats; Glover's wedges seem worse than his putter at the moment, which is not an endorsement; if Schneiderjans can find some inspiration with my cash I would be forever appreciative; and Garrigus might be due in the Coachella Valley.

GL
 
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My golf insights have always been built on watching the golf and following the leaderboards. That’s been my foundation for “uncovering” angles, trends and fits, although further digging and research is always an important tool that can’t be neglected . . . Early days for this season, but I can say I’ve already been engaged in following the golf for three straight weeks.

After early action at the Hope, I can acknowledge that if I got a “do-over” on my plays, I’d put a premium on holing out from 5 to 15 feet and getting lots of opportunities from that distance, and keeping it in play off the tee, and power would be a non-factor, and I’d have been much less enthusiastic about the likes of Schniederjans, Watney, Donald, Hoffman, Simpson and even Mickelson from my original “short list”.

In- running at Careerbuilder . . . David Lingmerth(28/1) e.w.
- - He looks dialed-in on some of his best form and patience, and confident from 10 feet, and he had ideal conditions for getting the most troublesome track out of the way. The alternative in-running plays on my short list were Bryson Dechambeau at 25/1 and Niclas Fasth at 400/1 in the other desert.

And FWIW, I’ve been getting a sampling of some of the new putting techniques, and the early returns look mostly cringe-worthy to my eye on whether those affected have struck upon the long term answers they need . . . And BTW, Dufner has put himself in a spot from which he has frequently been a beast, plus I'm sensing he is rightfully giving off some vibes along those lines himself (hopefully).

GL
 
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I'll try some matchups:

3rd Round:

Dufner(-120) over Simpson
Blair(-120) over Pettersson

And . . .

Brandt Snedeker(50/1) e.w. The Masters

Jason Dufner(100/1) e.w. P.G.A.

GL
 
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Awesome event:

Dufner - 1st
Lingmerth - 2nd
Mickelson - T3rd
Na - T3rd


Futures YTD: 5-21 (+19.00*)
Matchups YTD: 1-1 (-0.20*)


GL
 
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Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
- - My take on Mickelson last week was summed up by Johnny Miller’s observation on the 72nd hole that Phil’s game has looked really good all through his bag, starting with his driver. Gary Koch also noted several times that all week his new swing was producing a much more piercing ball flight, with none of the “pop ups” he’s been prone to. Bones says he’s never seen Phil working harder, and Phil in his own words stated the swing has been on plane for quite a while, but he didn’t have the club face awareness down from hip high to hip high, but the awareness showed up last week and he was hitting little fades and little draws with his driver like he does with his irons. It also appeared to me he was standing over his short putts for a noticeably longer few moments, and I don’t know what that might have been about, but he was rolling them in smartly. IMO this week will not be a case of one step back after two steps forward, and I like this play as much or more than 40/1 last week.

Lucas Glover(110/1) e.w.
- - Torrey Pines is the venue in 2006 when I first took notice of Lucas and thought he demonstrated something languid and loping in his swing and demeanor that suggested to me he had what I have always referred to as “a big boy game for big boy venues - and the majors.” I was right about that at least once at Bethpage. Ever since I’ve always fancied Glover at Torrey Pines (along the same lines but for different rerasons I always thought Phil would win at Augusta, and often been on board with Boo Weekley at Hilton Head, Stuart Appleby at Firestone, Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua, Luke Donald at Riviera, Brandt Snedeker at Augusta, Charles Howell at Torrey Pines (even with skinny odds and so frequently a bridesmaid, rarely a bride), Ross Fisher at Wentworth, and some others which escape me) . . . As for last week, the take I posted on Lucas from lots of play late in calendar year 2015 was “Glover's wedges seem worse than his putter at the moment, which is not an endorsement.” But last week I was pleasantly surprised by his steady production at a birdie fest alongside hacking amateurs, so maybe this week it all comes together.

Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
- -

Shane Lowry(80/1) e.w.
- - Nothing too recent in personal observations for me to draw on, but nothing too distant either, and I can see a fit . . . And FWIW his last outing at Nedbank seems bizarre to me, finishing 25th with a stat line on tour-tips of 8/2/26/25/6, so maybe he’s due a few breaks this week.

Marc Leishman(50/1) e.w.
- - Since my best golf insights have always been built on watching the golf and following the leaderboards, and I can now say I’ve been engaged in following the golf for four straight weeks, I have tried to stick to that approach exclusively in making my plays this week (and it will likely lead to at least one play in-running, like Lingmerth last week) . . . Nevertheless, this is a play I will speculate with, based on research and digging, rather than recent visual impressions and leaderboard tracking.

Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
- - A confluence of liking what an awesome capper had to say about liking his chances here every year, my own brief observations last week seeming consistent, and attractive value with the odds

Jimmy Walker(30/1) e.w.
- - Since I missed out on getting any plays down in Qatar, I won't skimp on plays for this event if I have a liking. He has at least looked like he knows it's a Ryder Cup season, so maybe a value loser at this price.

Brandt Snedeker(16/1) e.w.
-- How can I not like what I've seen so far this year? I'm just not thrilled with the odds.

GL
 
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Investing my winnings on Mickelson from last week:

Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w. 145th Open Championship
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w. P.G.A.
Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w. The Masters
Phil Mickelson(40/1) e.w. U.S. Open
- - In 2004 Mickelson repeatedly noted that Troon suited him best on the Open rota because all the way around you can strategically play to one side of virtually every hole and avoid the real problems which lie on the other side; utilizing his peerless short game when missing a green, and ready shotmaking when missing a fairway, he was indelibly engaged in the three-way battle that separated from the rest of the field. And the record shows what can happen now that Lefty gets to tune up for the Open on a links course instead of the bogs at Loch Lomond . . . I would have definitely concluded that the Open offered the best value in the majors for Mickelson this year if it wasn’t for the fact such surprising odds are being offered at Baltusrol where he has won before and will be played when he will surely be highly focused on a crammed schedule of majors while building toward the Ryder Cup . . . Although the 6-time runner-up surely wants the U.S. Open the most, IMO I would have to easily rate Oakmont as the least suitable major venue for Phil this season.

GL
 
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Saturday:

In-running:
Charles Howell(80/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Freddie Jacobson(35/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.

Matchups:
Thompson(+180) over Cauley/Burgoon
Horschel(-110) over Streelman
Jacobson(-110) over Brown
Howell(+125) over Hadwin/Vegas

GL
 
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- - Only the Thursday play was closely followed . . . I would often look at Jacobson as not a threat, but I like his chances for hanging tough on Saturday . . . Horschel is confident again, if nothing else . . . Howell gets a further look after draining a 40 foot putt to birdie the last two . . . And I'll take another flyer on Thompson.

G
 
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Last week:

Futures: 3-8 (+6.25*)
Matchups: 0-4 (-4.20*)

- - No great profits, but back-to-back winners with Dufner and Snedeker . . . Another strong in-running play with Jacobson . . . Crushed in the matchups.



Futures YTD: 8-29 (+25.25*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)


GL
 
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Dubai:

Outrights:

Louis Oosthuizen (28/1) e.w.
- - Overdue a win for all the good golf he’s played, especially in an elite field; has some credentials here, and some credentials for Januarys and early seasons; and I’ve already caught glimpses of some fairly effortless form seemingly on display. Also seems like good value among options falling in the price range I’ve struck paydays on early this year.

Thomas Pieters(33/1) e.w.
- - “Hello, world” would be too strong, but seems he could still be in the midst of announcing his presence.

Lee Westwood(66/1)
- - Only thing really suggesting the old crumbly are my memories of some stellar play here in the past, before his early season focus was directed toward America.

Ross Fisher(80/1) e.w.
- - The start of my season would go from awesome to sublime if I spent the weekend watching this play come good.

Thomas Bjorn(125/1) e.w.
- - Nothing to see here.

GL
 
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Phoenix:

Outrights:

Jason Dufner(28/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(16/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(28/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(25/1) e.w.
Aaron Baddeley(140/1) e.w.
Billy Horschel(66/1) e.w.
Kyle Stanley(160/1) e.w.


- - I can’t pick up winning markers on Dufner and Snedeker, and it makes me very happy being compelled to say that; I didn’t foresee Mickelson having last weekend off, but now I like the fallout potential; Baddeley and Horschel are the players on my list I’ve enjoyed tracking on early season leaderboards (and catching an occasional television glimpse); J.B. is the one I’d be kicking myself over if he was left off and came good; and I am surprised to be adding Stanley who I won with in 2012, as I was surprised to discover his all around stats from last week were so encouraging for an early season break out.

GL
 
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In-running:


Solid in-running efforts played recently on Lingmerth (CareerBuilder) and Jacobson (Farmers) mean dipping my toes in the water again.


Phil Mickelson(100/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Chad Campbell(66/1) e.w.



GL
 
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In-running:


Allianz:


Billy Andrade(20/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3) e.w.
- - By intuition I'd like his chances to battle for the win while hitting shots and scoring in blustery Sunday conditions, but what sold me was the way his game maybe stood out just a little while I was watching the action on Saturday.



Phil is playing as well as anyone throughout his bag and is set to move up the leaderboard in Phoenix while carrying my cash at 100/1, which takes my level of anticipation a few notches higher than any Denver vs. Carolina Super Bowl.



GL
 
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Futures YTD: 9-43 (+13.25*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)


Tshwane Open:


Outrights:

Brett Rumford(28/1) e.w.
Rhys Davies(175/1) e.w.
Seve Benson(150/1) e.w.
Merrick Bremner(200/1) e.w.
Jaco Ahlers(300/1) e.w.

- - Rumford ticks many boxes, Davies seems value, the rest are a poke and hope but the best I came up with.


GL
 
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AT&T:

Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
Kevin Streelman(100/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.
Bryce Molder(80/1) e.w.
Greg Owen(200/1) e.w.
Will Wilcox(100/1) e.w.

GL
 

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