Best NFL contrarian bets for divisional round
David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Cincinnati had every opportunity to win its first playoff game in 25 years. After three consecutive fourth-quarter scores gave the Bengals a one-point lead, linebacker Vontaze Burfict intercepted a pass from Steelers backup quarterbackLandry Jones with just 1:43 remaining. Then the unthinkable happened.
Jeremy Hill's fumble on first down gave Pittsburgh one last chance to score and advance. Ben Roethlisberger, doing his best impersonation of Willis Reed, limped onto the field and drove his offense 44 yards before consecutive dumb penalties from Burfict and Adam "Pacman" Jones set up a game-winning, 35-yard field goal for Chris Boswell.
This turn of events was heartbreaking for bettors who took the Bengals moneyline, but meaningless for those who followed our advice last week and took Cincinnati with the points. That win pushes our record to 26-19 against the spread (57.78 percent) on the season. We hope to improve on those results with our newest contrarian betting system heading into the divisional round.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Both fans and analysts believe bye weeks are crucial for postseason success. By earning a top-two seed, players are able to rest and recuperate, while coaches have more time to study film and develop a strong game plan.
During the regular season, teams coming off a bye week have offered a clear-cut edge for bettors. Since 2003, teams have gone 217-192 ATS (53.1 percent) when they have at least 13 days between games. That record improves to 125-90 ATS (58.1 percent) when we highlight favorites coming off a bye week.
These well-rested teams have clearly offered value during the regular season but, as we mentioned last week, playoff betting strategies are an entirely different beast.
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain, espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception, and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. Since the narrative dictates a substantial benefit to earning a first-round bye, we hypothesized the exact opposite would be true, and there would be value betting against top-two seeds during the divisional round.
Teams that earned a first-round bye have been favored in more than 80 percent of their games during the divisional round. We believed these teams would be vastly overvalued -- particularly when they were receiving overwhelming public support.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we found favorites coming off a first-round bye have gone just 16-30 against the spread (34.8 percent) in the divisional round. When that team is receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets, the record plummets to 4-16 against the spread (20 percent).
With such a woeful record, this system offers the perfect "fade" opportunity, meaning we will bet against teams fitting these criteria. Specifically, we will focus on underdogs who played in the wild-card round when they face off against a rested team following their bye week.
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[h=2]Why does this work?[/h]Our analysis found that the number of bets per game nearly doubles from the regular season to the postseason. This influx of money from uneducated square bettors increases the profitability of our betting-against-the-public strategies.
One of the biggest differences between sharp bettors and square bettors is that sharps will make a wager only when they believe that they have uncovered an edge. On the other hand, squares tend to bet big, nationally televised games. These recreational bettors want to make their viewing experience more entertaining by having a vested interest, and will place their wagers based on instinct and intuition.
Squares have historically bet favorites far more frequently than underdogs. Using our archived database, we found that a majority of public bettors have taken the favorite in 77.8 percent of all games. Sportsbooks understand this tendency and will shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
We should also point out that bye-week teams also enjoy home-field advantage during the divisional round. In the past we have discussed how bettors tend to overvalue home teams, and that trend holds up during the postseason. Over the past 12 years, visitors have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent rate during the regular season and a 54.5 percent rate in the playoffs.
Perhaps a first-round bye is a momentum killer for teams that are riding high entering the playoffs. Perhaps oddsmakers simply overvalue the idea of being well-rested. Perhaps public perception creates artificially inflated lines. Whatever the reason, byes have been historically overvalued. This edge can further be exploited by taking teams being ignored by the betting public.
[h=2]Divisional-round system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Kansas City Chiefs (+5) at New England Patriots
After steamrolling the Texans in the wild-card round, the Chiefs opened as 5.5-point underdogs and have received 46 percent of early spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. Although public betting has been fairly even, Kansas City has dropped from +5.5 to +5. While it's true that "5" is considered to be a dead number, which makes that half-point line move fairly insignificant, the Chiefs fit several additional profitable betting systems which help validate our selection. Since 2003, teams coming off a double-digit win have gone 34-23 ATS (59.6 percent) when they receive less than 50 percent of spread bets. We also discovered that underdogs coming off a road win have gone 34-15 ATS (69.4 percent) during the NFL playoffs. Both of these trends point toward value on the Chiefs. Kansas City fits the criteria for our 2014 wild-card system and our 2015 wild-card system, andTom Brady has actually been one of the worst ATS quarterbacks during the postseason. For those reasons, we're happy to take the Chiefs and the points.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City +5
Green Bay Packers (+7) at Arizona Cardinals
The Packers opened as 7.5-point underdogs, and early public betting has been evenly split with 53 percent of bettors backing the Cardinals. Despite this even public betting, Green Bay dipped from +7.5 to +7 across the sports betting marketplace. The Packers fit several of the same criteria as the Chiefs, but there are several additional sharp money indicators pointing toward value on Mike McCarthy's squad. Our research found that playoff underdogs have gone 32-16 ATS (66.7 percent) when their opponent's winning percentage is at least 80 percent, since 2003. The Packers fit the criteria mentioned in our 2014 conference championship analysis.
ESPN Chalk pick: Green Bay +7
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers
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</article>The Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites and have received 69 percent of spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the line has not moved since opening on Sunday evening. The Seahawks also fit several aforementioned betting systems, including last week's wild-card system, but there are other excellent betting systems triggered on Seattle. Since 2003, road teams that average at least 120 rushing yards per game have gone 39-26 ATS (60 percent) in the playoffs. The Seahawks currently fit this system, but it will be interesting to see whether Marshawn Lynch(abdominal injury) is able to play on Sunday. Many offshore sportsbooks are currently offering the Seahawks as 3-point underdogs, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing your wagers.
ESPN Chalk pick: Seattle +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Denver Broncos
Technically the Steelers fit this system as well, but this game is currently off the board at the Westgate Superbook due to uncertainty surrounding the availability of Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown andDeAngelo Williams.
These lines and trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check out ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting percentages.
David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Cincinnati had every opportunity to win its first playoff game in 25 years. After three consecutive fourth-quarter scores gave the Bengals a one-point lead, linebacker Vontaze Burfict intercepted a pass from Steelers backup quarterbackLandry Jones with just 1:43 remaining. Then the unthinkable happened.
Jeremy Hill's fumble on first down gave Pittsburgh one last chance to score and advance. Ben Roethlisberger, doing his best impersonation of Willis Reed, limped onto the field and drove his offense 44 yards before consecutive dumb penalties from Burfict and Adam "Pacman" Jones set up a game-winning, 35-yard field goal for Chris Boswell.
This turn of events was heartbreaking for bettors who took the Bengals moneyline, but meaningless for those who followed our advice last week and took Cincinnati with the points. That win pushes our record to 26-19 against the spread (57.78 percent) on the season. We hope to improve on those results with our newest contrarian betting system heading into the divisional round.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Both fans and analysts believe bye weeks are crucial for postseason success. By earning a top-two seed, players are able to rest and recuperate, while coaches have more time to study film and develop a strong game plan.
During the regular season, teams coming off a bye week have offered a clear-cut edge for bettors. Since 2003, teams have gone 217-192 ATS (53.1 percent) when they have at least 13 days between games. That record improves to 125-90 ATS (58.1 percent) when we highlight favorites coming off a bye week.
These well-rested teams have clearly offered value during the regular season but, as we mentioned last week, playoff betting strategies are an entirely different beast.
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain, espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception, and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. Since the narrative dictates a substantial benefit to earning a first-round bye, we hypothesized the exact opposite would be true, and there would be value betting against top-two seeds during the divisional round.
Teams that earned a first-round bye have been favored in more than 80 percent of their games during the divisional round. We believed these teams would be vastly overvalued -- particularly when they were receiving overwhelming public support.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we found favorites coming off a first-round bye have gone just 16-30 against the spread (34.8 percent) in the divisional round. When that team is receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets, the record plummets to 4-16 against the spread (20 percent).
With such a woeful record, this system offers the perfect "fade" opportunity, meaning we will bet against teams fitting these criteria. Specifically, we will focus on underdogs who played in the wild-card round when they face off against a rested team following their bye week.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD |
|---|---|
| Opponent Coming off Bye Week | 30-18 (62.5%) |
| Underdog, Opponent Coming off Bye Week | 30-16 (65.2%) |
| 'Dog <50% of spread bets, Opp. Coming off Bye | 16-4 (80.0%) |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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[h=2]Why does this work?[/h]Our analysis found that the number of bets per game nearly doubles from the regular season to the postseason. This influx of money from uneducated square bettors increases the profitability of our betting-against-the-public strategies.
One of the biggest differences between sharp bettors and square bettors is that sharps will make a wager only when they believe that they have uncovered an edge. On the other hand, squares tend to bet big, nationally televised games. These recreational bettors want to make their viewing experience more entertaining by having a vested interest, and will place their wagers based on instinct and intuition.
Squares have historically bet favorites far more frequently than underdogs. Using our archived database, we found that a majority of public bettors have taken the favorite in 77.8 percent of all games. Sportsbooks understand this tendency and will shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
We should also point out that bye-week teams also enjoy home-field advantage during the divisional round. In the past we have discussed how bettors tend to overvalue home teams, and that trend holds up during the postseason. Over the past 12 years, visitors have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent rate during the regular season and a 54.5 percent rate in the playoffs.
Perhaps a first-round bye is a momentum killer for teams that are riding high entering the playoffs. Perhaps oddsmakers simply overvalue the idea of being well-rested. Perhaps public perception creates artificially inflated lines. Whatever the reason, byes have been historically overvalued. This edge can further be exploited by taking teams being ignored by the betting public.
[h=2]Divisional-round system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Kansas City Chiefs (+5) at New England Patriots
After steamrolling the Texans in the wild-card round, the Chiefs opened as 5.5-point underdogs and have received 46 percent of early spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. Although public betting has been fairly even, Kansas City has dropped from +5.5 to +5. While it's true that "5" is considered to be a dead number, which makes that half-point line move fairly insignificant, the Chiefs fit several additional profitable betting systems which help validate our selection. Since 2003, teams coming off a double-digit win have gone 34-23 ATS (59.6 percent) when they receive less than 50 percent of spread bets. We also discovered that underdogs coming off a road win have gone 34-15 ATS (69.4 percent) during the NFL playoffs. Both of these trends point toward value on the Chiefs. Kansas City fits the criteria for our 2014 wild-card system and our 2015 wild-card system, andTom Brady has actually been one of the worst ATS quarterbacks during the postseason. For those reasons, we're happy to take the Chiefs and the points.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City +5
Green Bay Packers (+7) at Arizona Cardinals
The Packers opened as 7.5-point underdogs, and early public betting has been evenly split with 53 percent of bettors backing the Cardinals. Despite this even public betting, Green Bay dipped from +7.5 to +7 across the sports betting marketplace. The Packers fit several of the same criteria as the Chiefs, but there are several additional sharp money indicators pointing toward value on Mike McCarthy's squad. Our research found that playoff underdogs have gone 32-16 ATS (66.7 percent) when their opponent's winning percentage is at least 80 percent, since 2003. The Packers fit the criteria mentioned in our 2014 conference championship analysis.
ESPN Chalk pick: Green Bay +7
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers
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</article>The Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites and have received 69 percent of spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the line has not moved since opening on Sunday evening. The Seahawks also fit several aforementioned betting systems, including last week's wild-card system, but there are other excellent betting systems triggered on Seattle. Since 2003, road teams that average at least 120 rushing yards per game have gone 39-26 ATS (60 percent) in the playoffs. The Seahawks currently fit this system, but it will be interesting to see whether Marshawn Lynch(abdominal injury) is able to play on Sunday. Many offshore sportsbooks are currently offering the Seahawks as 3-point underdogs, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing your wagers.
ESPN Chalk pick: Seattle +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Denver Broncos
Technically the Steelers fit this system as well, but this game is currently off the board at the Westgate Superbook due to uncertainty surrounding the availability of Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown andDeAngelo Williams.
These lines and trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check out ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting percentages.
