Picking Cruz goes against all the rules. A fighter with this sort of time of time off should basically never get the nod of not just an active champion, but one who is also at the forefront of technical innovation. The key for me is Cruz was already ahead of his peers before his career was derailed. Dillashaw has leapt into a point where many of the strategies and skills Cruz developed won't work. He also carries his own liabilities with the ducking and dodging. A sniper like Dillashaw can time him and hurt Cruz far worse than Cruz can do the opposite.
For the existing champion, his aggression might be his undoing. If he chases or tries to be momentarily stationary to draw Cruz in, he'll be chewed to pieces. He has to move as well and must find a way to corral Cruz to an extent to allow his own confusing forward movement to work.
But for a fighter like Cruz to have been this impacted by injuries and the fight to be this close (on paper, anyway) is a minor miracle in itself. Cruz continues to defy even the lofty expectations placed in front of him. And the truth is, his time off has been a blessing in one fundamental respect: He's likely developed new techniques and wrinkles to his game we've never seen. A lot of the video previews for this event featured Cruz in WEC bouts. One wonders how relevant that really is. Cruz has been able to develop some additions to his game, almost in secret. I suspect we'll be shown some of them today.
Dominick Cruz +129
This is a true test of Pettis' abilities. He needs to be able to stuff any takedowns Alvarez is going to send his way. Not each and every single attempt, but the general pressure he could apply. Alvarez is a very underrated wrestler and likely can't stand with Pettis for very long on the feet, anyway. Pettis has shown the ability to be competent at takedown defense, but can spend long periods of his back pressed against the fence as he fights off someone else's offensive pressure. He doesn't have five rounds to work here, meaning he can't afford to give away even a single round. I don't suspect he will. I'm looking for the former champ to hurt Alvarez on the feet and finish him off via TKO before the referee is forced to step in.
Anthony Pettis -336
There's a real question about whether the sort of personal life distractions Browne has to deal with in addition to the very questionable level of training he's receiving at Glendale Fight Club is good enough to stay at the top of the division. Mitrione has shown moments of real ability, but has also made questionable decisions as well. I'll be honest and say I can't quite point to what, specifically, Mitrione has over Browne other than he appears to be dialed in at a time when Browne is not.
Matt Mitrione +130
The Brazilian can crack here, but not with the same kind of hand speed as Pearson. Trinaldo might be a bit better on the ground as well, both with submissions and positional control once it's been first established. That establishment, though, is where Pearson has the edge. I'm looking for the Alliance MMA lightweight to use space, timing and speed to pick Trinaldo apart on the feet en route to a stoppage victory.
Ross Pearson -147
Patrick Cote +107
Chris Wade -364
Ed Herman +185
Luke Sanders +100
Paul Felder -241
Sean O'Connell-Ilir Latifi.....Under 1.5 -110
Kyle Bochniak-Charles Rosa.....Over 2.5 +110
Rob Font -205
Francimar Barroso +135
For the existing champion, his aggression might be his undoing. If he chases or tries to be momentarily stationary to draw Cruz in, he'll be chewed to pieces. He has to move as well and must find a way to corral Cruz to an extent to allow his own confusing forward movement to work.
But for a fighter like Cruz to have been this impacted by injuries and the fight to be this close (on paper, anyway) is a minor miracle in itself. Cruz continues to defy even the lofty expectations placed in front of him. And the truth is, his time off has been a blessing in one fundamental respect: He's likely developed new techniques and wrinkles to his game we've never seen. A lot of the video previews for this event featured Cruz in WEC bouts. One wonders how relevant that really is. Cruz has been able to develop some additions to his game, almost in secret. I suspect we'll be shown some of them today.
Dominick Cruz +129
This is a true test of Pettis' abilities. He needs to be able to stuff any takedowns Alvarez is going to send his way. Not each and every single attempt, but the general pressure he could apply. Alvarez is a very underrated wrestler and likely can't stand with Pettis for very long on the feet, anyway. Pettis has shown the ability to be competent at takedown defense, but can spend long periods of his back pressed against the fence as he fights off someone else's offensive pressure. He doesn't have five rounds to work here, meaning he can't afford to give away even a single round. I don't suspect he will. I'm looking for the former champ to hurt Alvarez on the feet and finish him off via TKO before the referee is forced to step in.
Anthony Pettis -336
There's a real question about whether the sort of personal life distractions Browne has to deal with in addition to the very questionable level of training he's receiving at Glendale Fight Club is good enough to stay at the top of the division. Mitrione has shown moments of real ability, but has also made questionable decisions as well. I'll be honest and say I can't quite point to what, specifically, Mitrione has over Browne other than he appears to be dialed in at a time when Browne is not.
Matt Mitrione +130
The Brazilian can crack here, but not with the same kind of hand speed as Pearson. Trinaldo might be a bit better on the ground as well, both with submissions and positional control once it's been first established. That establishment, though, is where Pearson has the edge. I'm looking for the Alliance MMA lightweight to use space, timing and speed to pick Trinaldo apart on the feet en route to a stoppage victory.
Ross Pearson -147
Patrick Cote +107
Chris Wade -364
Ed Herman +185
Luke Sanders +100
Paul Felder -241
Sean O'Connell-Ilir Latifi.....Under 1.5 -110
Kyle Bochniak-Charles Rosa.....Over 2.5 +110
Rob Font -205
Francimar Barroso +135
ointer::aktion033
)
k:
