Sunday 1/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Any one have BEN BURNS football picks. Thanks

Billy Walter's CONFIRMED NFL Championship Plays for Sunday are:

BigPapiGil said:

Marc Lawrence 10* Top Play

Denver Broncos +3.5

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Do u have the write up for this? I see this is ur first post and just curious if this is the correct play. There have been a lot of incorrect picks posted lately and I just want the forum to have the right plays. Not saying ur a liar or anything but, since this is ur first post a write up would give u some credibility going forward.

SOUTHERN WISEGUY said:

Just realized the plays didn't post!!! Anyway, there are 3 plays "out there" but I can only CONFIRM 2 right now...the 2 are....DENVER and CAROLINA

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You should give credit where you copy this info from!! Just sayin.

:wink:

Creole GOY in the NFL. TIA

LENBO said:

Is it from a site other than Playbook? That's his site.
He's advertising the same play on his site without the 10* reference which is the Broncos.
Different sites use different ratings.
Marc Lawrence NFL Never Situation Lost Perfect Top Key Play!

The higher rated play on his site is Arizona.
NFL Championship Round Play Of The Year

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Whats wrong with you guys. Stars are for shit. Lawrence use to have only 1 or maybe 2 College 10* and 1 pro 10 * every yr. But his 5 * have been so bad that he has had a 10* every week fur the last 5. the only reason these guys use stars so if they happen to hit 3 four stars in a row then they would charge for there 4 stars and tell you how good they are. Stars are only used to get your money .

sportscrazy said:

Whats wrong with you guys. Stars are for shit. Lawrence use to have only 1 or maybe 2 College 10* and 1 pro 10 * every yr. But his 5 * have been so bad that he has had a 10* every week fur the last 5. the only reason these guys use stars so if they happen to hit 3 four stars in a row then they would charge for there 4 stars and tell you how good they are. Stars are only used to get your money .

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He hasn't released 10*s every week for the last 5 weeks on his website.
Post them since you made the statement.

sportscrazy said:

Whats wrong with you guys. Stars are for shit. Lawrence use to have only 1 or maybe 2 College 10* and 1 pro 10 * every yr. But his 5 * have been so bad that he has had a 10* every week fur the last 5. the only reason these guys use stars so if they happen to hit 3 four stars in a row then they would charge for there 4 stars and tell you how good they are. Stars are only used to get your money .

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Exactly. They also use stars as another way to make their record look better. Let's say, for instance, that a service loses two 3* plays on Saturday. That is 0-2, -6 stars. So they come back on Sunday with a 10* play. It wins. So now instead of saying they were 1-2 for the weekend, they say they were +4 stars. It is just a shell game. Conversely if they win their two 3* games and lose their 10*, they forget the stars when reporting their weekend results and advertise they were 2-1 for the weekend. I know how the whole game works. I have a small service. They also collect twice!

Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Patriots most formidable in history
January 23, 2016 8:26 AM by Bob Christ

Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Patriots most formidable in historyThe Final Four of Carolina, Arizona, Denver and New England is one of the most formidable in league history, with this group combining for a 52-12 overall regular-season mark. That’s the best for conference finalists the past 11 seasons.

Last week they all won to make for a 4-0 sweep for home teams in divisional round, the seventh time that’s happened since 1990. Alas, they went only 1-2-1 ATS.

On the Westgate Las Vegas Super Bowl board, the Panthers and Patriots opened the week as co-favorites to win the league title at 2-1, with the Cardinals at 3-1 and Broncos at 4-1. Interestingly, a week earlier Arizona was the favorite at 3-1. Apparently the Cards’ 26-20 overtime win over Green Bay last week didn’t score many style points.

Now for a closer look at Sunday’s games. The odds listed are courtesy of Westgate LV. Times are PT.

AFC Championship – New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)

Time: Noon

Line: Patriots by 3 (44)

Facts: This is the first time since the 1977 season the home team in the AFC final has been such a heavy underdog. Back then, Denver was 3.5-point dog vs. Oakland and won, 20-17… Since the merger, home dogs in this round are 8-8 ATS... This will be the fifth time QBs Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have met in the finals. Both are 2-0 at home... Brady is 2-6 (SU/ATS) in Denver... Two years ago, when the host Broncos beat NE 26-16 for AFC laurels they were a 5-point pick... New England is 3-0 the past two seasons when having fewer than 15 rushing plays, including last week’s 27-20 win over KC. All other teams in that span are 0-39... WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola (both questionable) are expected to play for NE. They were out for the Week 12 meeting in Denver, when Broncos QB Brock Osweiler led his team to a 30-24 OT win after rallying from a 14-point deficit... This season, Denver QBs had 19 TD passes and 23 INTs. The last team to reach the conference finals with fewer TD throws than INTs was the 2009 Jets (12/21).

Analysis: This will mark Brady’s 13th career game against a defense that finished the year ranked No. 1. He’s 8-4 SU/ATS, but is 1-3 SU/ATS on the road since 2009, including that Week 12 loss in Denver. And that Broncos defense, which recently got back its safeties, is yielding only 4.4 yards a snap, which is half a yard better than anyone else. And this week they get sackmaster DeMarcus Ware back. Even though Denver’s offense has struggled this season (especially with dropped throws), scoring only three TDs on 18 short fields, the Broncos shouldn’t have to worry about a shootout. They showed a spark in the running game in recent weeks with Manning spending more time under center. Last week vs. Pittsburgh, Denver had 109 rush yards. In a crucial Week 17 victory over San Diego, the Broncos had 210 ground yards behind C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Such production there could work wonders against a battered Patriots defense that was on the field for a ridiculous 83 plays last week.

Forecast: Broncos 24, Patriots 21



NFC Championship – Arizona Cardinals (14-3) at Carolina Panthers (16-1)

Time: 3:40 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 3 (47.5)

Facts: Carolina, which has the league’s sixth-rated defense, goes against the NFL’s top-ranked offense. It’s the seventh straight game the Panthers have contested a top-10 unit... Last season in the wild-card round, host Carolina beat Arizona 27-16, holding the Cardinals to a playoff record-low 78 yards of total offense. Arizona’s top two QBs were hurt and Ryan Lindley started... Carolina QB Cam Newton has rushed 132 times for 636 yards and 10 TDs this season. The other three QB starters Sunday have combined for 71 yards and four TDs on 65 carries... Arizona has averaged only 3.1 yards on 91 rushes vs. defenses that rank in the top 10 in yards per carry, but 4.5 vs. everyone else. Carolina is No. 4 on that chart... Injury report: Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart (ankle) and TE Greg Olsen (shoulder) have been upgraded to probable... Arizona QB Carson Palmer threw two INTs in Green Bay territory last week. Newton’s had two such throws all year.

Analysis: Field conditions could well be horrible after the tarp is removed after the passing of Winter Storm Jonas. Things were slippery enough last week when the Panthers beat Seattle 31-24 on a dry field, so Arizona had better pack its long cleats... Last week, both teams appeared to have victories secure before winning nail-biters. The Panthers blew most of a 31-0 lead to the Seahawks and Arizona needed OT to beat the Packers after giving up a tying Hail Mary as time expired. The edge on a crummy field should go to Carolina’s ground attack, which has generated 30 straight games of 100-yards. They will face a Cardinals defense that has yielded 100-plus yards its past three games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have totaled 67 yards rushing its past two games combined. And despite having a rich assortment of receivers to choose from in John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Palmer could be hurting if play-action doesn’t carry much clout.

Forecast: Panthers 26, Cardinals 17

NFL oddsmakers spill why Patriots, Panthers deserve to be championship faves
By Colin Kelly

The Denver Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, with the home-field advantage conferred by that status. But their offense has struggled for weeks, with Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff game proving to be no exception, and the oddsmakers clearly took note of it.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker, opened the second-seeded New England Patriots as 3-point road chalk for next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in the Mile High City.

Denver had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat sixth-seeded Pittsburgh 23-16 Sunday, pushing as a 7-point home favorite while getting to its total with just one touchdown and five field goals. The Broncos (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) didn’t get that TD until three minutes remained in the game, again leaning heavily on their defense, even with Peyton Manning seemingly healthy.

No. 2 seed New England, meanwhile, was in control throughout its 27-20 victory Saturday over No. 5 seed Kansas City, covering as a 6-point home fave. The Patriots (13-4 SU, 8-7-2 ATS) led 27-13 before giving up a late TD. The win ended a two-game SU and ATS skid, the reason New England will be on the road this week.

The Broncos and Pats met in Week 12, with Denver rallying from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to snare a 30-24 overtime victor – again as a home underdog getting 2.5 points. That was the second of seven games that Manning sat out with a foot injury.

This game will feature yet another meeting of Manning and Brady, with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

“New England is road chalk because it is the more complete team, and the bettors aren’t going to back off that side,” Lester said. “We initially took Patriots money and moved to -3.5, but now we are back to the opener after a sharp bet on Denver. As the regular gamblers get involved, we could see the total push up a bit.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, noted New England is much healthier this time around.

“The Patriots opened a 3-point favorite and closed -2.5 on their last visit to Mile High. In that contest, the Pats had no Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, but had a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter,” Avello said. “The Broncos had no Peyton in that one, however they do for this one. But I’m not sure if that’s a positive or negative.

“I opened the Patriots a 3-point favorite again, and the early money was on New England, driving this number to -3 (-120). I’m trying not to get off of 3 if I can help it.”

‘NFC Championship Game’

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Panthers looked so much like a No. 1 seed in the first half Sunday that they overcame a second-half slumber against two-time defending NFC champion Seattle. Carolina, 2.5-point home chalk against the sixth-seeded Seahawks, led 31-0 at the break, didn’t score the rest of the game but still got the 31-24 win and cover in a divisional-round game.

Carolina (16-1 SU) improved to 12-5 ATS, easily the best spread-covering mark among the remaining playoff teams.

Top-seeded Arizona, laying seven points at home to No. 5 seed Green Bay on Saturday, also had a gut-check thriller. The Cardinals (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS) gave up a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis as the fourth quarter expired, tying the game at 20-20.

But on the first play of overtime, Carson Palmer hit Larry Fitzgerald with a short pass that ultimately covered 75 yards, and the same duo then finished the job with a 5-yard TD shovel pass to give Arizona a 26-20 victory.

“I divided each team’s first and second-half showings this past weekend before I hung this number,” Avello said. “Arizona started poorly but finished strong, and Carolina started strong and finished poorly. Looking deeper, the Panthers haven’t played well in the second half in three of their last four games.

“I opened the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites because of the strength of home field, although I expected to see Cardinals money. The opposite happened, as the number was bet up to -3. I do believe the price will drop below 3 again, as the Cardinals are certainly as good as the Seahawks and may not fall completely asleep in the first 30 minutes of the game.”

Lester said while the NFC finale may not have the flair of Brady-Manning, he’s expecting a very competitive contest.

“It’s not the sexy matchup like we have in the AFC, but this should be one heck of a game,” Lester said. “It’s a simple home-field edge factor when setting this spread, as these teams are as close as they get in terms of power ratings. We expect to see the wise guys on Arizona early, but I doubt this moves off the key number by kickoff.”

Patriots, Panthers open faves as Conference Championship odds hit board
By Andrew Caley

Well the NFL got the AFC Championship matchup it wanted as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will meet one more time.

But what is interesting about this matchup from a betting perspective, is the fact the No. 2 seeded Patriots have opened as 3-point road favorites against the No. 1 seeded Broncos. The total opened at 44.5. This is a case of Manning clearly being on the decline and Brady looking like the same old Brady.

Brady was his usual self this season, throwing for 4,770 yards, with 36 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, leading the Patriots to a 12-4 record straight up and 7-7-2 against the spread.

Meanwhile Manning, who made his first start since Nov. 15 after battling a foot injury in the second half of the year, passed for just 2,249 yards with nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. The Broncos were 5-4 SU/ATS in Manning’s nine starts.

This will be the 17th time Brady and Manning will face off during their illustrious careers and the fourth time for the AFC Championship. Brady leads the all time matchup 11-5 SU and 8-6-2 ATS. The over/under record in their 16 meetings is 10-6 O/U.

Meanwhile in the NFC, the No. 1 seeded Carolina Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites against the No. 2 seeded Arizona Cardinals. The total opened at 47.

The Panthers, lead by sure-fire MVP Cam Newton, are the best bet remaining in the playoffs. They went 11-5 ATS in the regular season and followed that up by covering the 2.5 chalk in their Divisional matchup with Seattle. Carolina was also a great over bet this season, going 11-5-1 including playoffs.

The Cardinals, led by their own MVP candidate Carson Palmer, went 9-7 ATS this season, and while they managed a 26-20 OT over Green Bay they were unable to cover as 7-point home favorites. They are 9-8 O/U this season including playoffs

Championship Notes
By VI News

♦Patriots at Broncos♦
3:00 PM EST – CBS

Line Movement:
New England opened as a 2 ½-point road favorite at Westgate Las Vegas, but that number has quickly moved to -3 (-120). Sportsbooks is the only offshore book offering the Patriots at -3 ½, while the rest of the offshore books show New England at -3 with juice from -115 to -125. The total opened at 44 ½ and that hasn’t seen much movement, except at CRIS where it has dropped to 44.

New England Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Denver Home Record: 7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS

Head-to-Head:
There wasn’t a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning matchup this season, but the Broncos rallied past the Patriots in overtime at home in Week 12 by a 30-24 count. Denver erased a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown run by C.J. Anderson to hand New England its first loss following a 10-0 start. The Broncos knocked off the Patriots to win the 2013 AFC Championship at home, 26-16 as five-point favorites. Brady and Manning have split four career playoff matchups with Manning’s teams winning the last two meetings in 2013 and 2006 in the conference title game.

Playoff Notes:
The Patriots advanced to their fifth straight AFC Championship after holding off the Chiefs at home, 27-20 in the divisional round to cash as six-point favorites. New England has won eight of its last 11 playoff games dating back to the 2012 postseason, while covering six times in that stretch. The Patriots are the first road favorite in the AFC Championship since 2004, as New England blew out Pittsburgh as a three-point chalk, 41-27.

The Broncos didn’t play their best game in the divisional round, but found a way to stave off the Steelers, 23-16. Denver advanced to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2013, while the Broncos pushed as seven-point favorites, moving their ATS record to 0-3-1 in the divisional round with Manning at the helm. The Broncos have won four of the last six playoff games at Sports Authority Field, while being listed as an underdog in the playoffs for the first time with Manning.

Total Notes:
Denver moved to 6-2-1 to the ‘under’ at home this season after the Pittsburgh victory. Since cashing the ‘over’ in the second round double-overtime loss to Baltimore in 2012, the Broncos have finished ‘under’ the total in each of the last four home playoff games. The Patriots eclipsed the ‘over’ in five of eight road contests this season, while going ‘over’ the total in six of the last eight playoff games since 2013.

♦Cardinals at Panthers♦
6:40 PM EST – FOX

Line Movement:
Carolina opened up as a three-point home favorite at most sportsbooks, while the total came out at 48 ½ at the Westgate Las Vegas. The total dropped to 47 ½ at the Westgate, while offshore book 5dimes has listed the total at 47.

Arizona Road Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS

Carolina Home Record: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS

Head-to-Head:
These two teams didn’t face off in 2015, as the Panthers eliminated the Cardinals in the 2014 Wild Card round, 27-16 as 5 ½-point favorites. Carson Palmer didn’t face Carolina as he sat out with a torn ACL, as Arizona’s offense was limited to 78 yards behind backup Ryan Lindley. The Panthers own a 1-2 SU/ATS record against Arizona in Cam Newton’s career, as the Carolina quarterback threw for 422 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut against the Cardinals in 2011.

Playoff Notes:
The Cardinals outlasted the Packers in overtime, 26-20 to advance to their first NFC Championship since 2008. Arizona won the NFC title that season over Philadelphia, 32-25 as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The Panthers jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks in the divisional round before holding off Seattle, 31-24. Carolina evened its mark at 2-2 in the playoffs with Cam Newton at quarterback since 2013, as both victories came at Bank of America Stadium.

Total Notes:
Panthers have hit the ‘over’ in 11 of 17 games, while going 6-2-1 to the ‘over’ at home. The Cardinals cashed the ‘under’ in six of the final seven contests, but finished ‘over’ the total in five of eight games away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Last year’s Wild Card game between these teams went ‘over’ the total of 37 ½, while Carolina has hit the ‘over’ in three straight playoff games.

Cashing in your NFL Conference Championship bets takes perfect timing
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

‘Spread to bet now’

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)
What to make of the Panthers? Carolina was driving a Ferrari in the first half against the Seahawks, but came out in the third period behind the wheel of a VW Beetle. It got just a little bit dicey in the late going as the Panthers went into a four-corner Dean Smith-type offense in the second half. Expected league MVP Cam Newton wound up throwing the ball only 22 times as the Panthers burned clock after going up big early.

The Panthers are unlikely to have their way in the late game against a Cardinals team that is ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL against the run, against the pass and overall. Books figure that this game is a push, giving the field goal to Arizona as the road team. There appear to be no major injuries or other factors that could alter that line, though early money is on Carolina to cover.

‘Spread to wait on’

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3)
The Patriots are now paying the price for that debacle at Miami in the final game of the season in which they played much of the game to protect the health of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. A win over the pathetic Dolphins would have likely meant that the AFC title game would be played in Gillette Stadium (though the divisional round matchup would have been different), and New England would have been a solid touchdown favorite.

As it is, the Patriots are giving the three, based on New England’s bounce-back effort against white-hot Kansas City last week. New England’s defense is a notch better than Pittsburgh and no one can occupy Peyton Manning’s skull more effectively than Bill Belichick can. Bettors like New England two to one in the early going, but bear in mind that the Patriots and Brady have not ever fared well in Denver since the teams started going at it back in the 1960s.

‘Totals to watch’

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (’47’)
Both the Cardinals (9-7) and the Panthers (10-5-1) have been Over teams this season, led by MVP-candidate quarterbacks. More importantly, both teams have coaches who are now afraid to let the ball fly – even with the stakes so high.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (‘44.5’)
Interesting number, considering that when the teams played in late November, they put 48 points on the board in regulation. The Patriots offense is healthier now than it was two months ago and the Broncos have turned back to Manning, even though they had 433 total yards behind Osweiler in November.