[h=1]Betting guide for New England-Denver[/h]NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The 2015 NFL playoffs are set to continue Sunday afternoon with the top two seeds in each conference facing off, which could make betting the games a difficult task.
Not to worry, though -- we've asked our experienced group of gambling experts to give their picks for both games this weekend. They will help provide some insight into how some of the sharpest minds in the business are looking at these matchups.
We've tasked ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp, along with John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information and Wunderdog Sports, with providing their expert opinions.
All lines are provided by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
[h=2]New England Patriots atDenver Broncos[/h]Spread: Opened New England -3; now New England -3
Total: Opened 44; now 44.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 78 percent picked New England
Tuley's take: I'm really torn on this game. I believe the Patriots are the better team, but the NFL Vegas Rankings that I'm part of here at Chalk have them just 1.5 points better than the Broncos and I was expecting this line to be around pick 'em with the game in Denver (or even for the Patriots to be getting a point or two). However, with New England being a road favorite of a full field goal, the betting value looks to be<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> on the Broncos. As much as I love home underdogs, though, I can't pull the trigger on Denver.
</offer>
Tom Brady's 11-5 lifetime record versus Peyton Manning has been widely discussed and Bill Belichick's defensive schemes usually frustrate Manning. The Broncos won the regular-season meeting 30-24 in overtime, but that was with Brock Osweiler at QB and Denver ran for 179 yards (plus, the game might've been over if not for a muffed punt by New England). I expect Belichick and his defensive staff to make the necessary adjustments to limit the running game and pressure Manning into mistakes. The Broncos have been winning mostly thanks to their No. 1 defense, and while I expect the Patriots to have more success with Julian Edelman (who missed the last meeting) back in the lineup, I believe this will be lower-scoring than that first game. I'm still not sure if I'll bite the bullet and bet the Patriots as the chalk or tease the Broncos, but I know I'll be on the under, which I'm hoping will be bet a little higher by kickoff Sunday.
The pick: Under 44.5.
Rynning: The Patriots flexed their playoff muscles last week, taking care of business against the Chiefs. In turn, the betting marketplace regained its confidence in the Brady-Belichick regime and the Patriots' return to health at the skill positions this week to position them as the field goal-plus favorite. However, I prefer the better defense of the Broncos and stronger running game, as well as the fact that Denver is getting points on its home turf.
The Patriots allowed 179 yards on the ground in the Week 12 matchup and were outgained on the ground last week by 97 yards. Even with New England's occasional disdain for its running attack, this is still an issue. I regard the Broncos as having the better stop-unit, although it showed some slippage down the stretch. However, the Steelers gained 275 yards of their offense last Sunday on just eight plays, while the Patriots are not known as a big-play offense. I'll stick with the fundamentals and the points with the Broncos.
The pick: Denver +3
Wunderdog: While a gut-feel approach to this game says the Patriots roll, there is reason to believe in the home 'dog. The Broncos are the NFL's top defense against the run and the pass, and led the league in sacks. Denver is also No. 4 in points allowed, giving up just 13, 20, 10, 24, 15, 17, 20 and 16 points in eight of its nine home games. And one of those was a 30-24 OT win in Week 12 over this Patriots team.
The Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games on grass, plus 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New England is a one-dimensional offense -- all passing -- which makes it easier for defensive coordinators. In Week 17 Miami used a nickel pass defense to open the game, daring the Patriots to run. New England took the bait, trying to run, but couldn't behind a bad offensive line and lost 20-10 as 10-point favorites.
The Patriots have been hit by injuries all season long, losing their top running back (Dion Lewis), their top offensive lineman (Nate Solder) and depth on the defensive line with LB Jerod Mayo and DE Dominique Easley. Last week in the playoffs their top LBs (Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins) left early with injuries; they will both play but are not 100 percent. Hightower is their best run-stuffer and after he was lost in the earlier meeting in Denver, the Broncos' running game got going; the Patriots managed just 39 yards on 16 carries. Take the points with Denver.
The pick: Denver +3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]74.5 receiving yards by Rob Gronkowski (O/U -110)
The Broncos' defense deserves every bit of publicity it has received this season. It is the only defensive unit allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game and is a nightmare for wide receivers. Opposing wideouts have racked up 1,963 yards and 6.94 yards per target, both the lowest marks in the league. But tight ends? The Broncos have allowed 914 yards by tight ends this season, tied for ninth most. Only seven defenses allowed at least 900 yards and seven TD receptions by tight ends this season; none of them is still playing.
The Broncos have faced Gronkowski already and had every reason to focus on Gronk as New England's top pass-catching threat. The other starting skill players for New England that day were Brandon LaFell, Keshawn Martin, Scott Chandler and LeGarrette Blount, none of whom entered the Week 12 game with more than 17 receptions on the season. Gronkowski left with an injured knee in the second half and still finished with six receptions for 88 yards. Adding Edelman and Danny Amendola should give Gronk a little more room to operate.
The play: Over
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (Yes -165, No +145)
Tom Brady threw 36 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, but "no" is paying out +145? Brady has thrown an interception in 43 of 91 games including playoffs during the past five years (47 percent) and 16 of 36 in the past two (44 percent); that's almost the opposite of the +145 payout.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>Name recognition in the opposing defense is a driving force, and the Broncos' pass defense has been good this season. But the Broncos haven't necessarily been ball hawks -- Denver intercepted 14 passes this season, tied with three other teams for 13th in the league. Should Brady or Manning meet the Panthers (24, most) or Cardinals (19, fourth most) in the Super Bowl, maybe this prop comes back. But Brady just beat the team with the second-most interceptions in the divisional round 27-20 with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. "No" would be a decent play at a pick 'em, but at plus-145? Definitely.
The play: No (+145)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<footer class="article-footer" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; padding-top: 0px; max-width: 640px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
</footer>
ESPN INSIDER
The 2015 NFL playoffs are set to continue Sunday afternoon with the top two seeds in each conference facing off, which could make betting the games a difficult task.
Not to worry, though -- we've asked our experienced group of gambling experts to give their picks for both games this weekend. They will help provide some insight into how some of the sharpest minds in the business are looking at these matchups.
We've tasked ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp, along with John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information and Wunderdog Sports, with providing their expert opinions.
All lines are provided by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Total: Opened 44; now 44.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 78 percent picked New England
Tuley's take: I'm really torn on this game. I believe the Patriots are the better team, but the NFL Vegas Rankings that I'm part of here at Chalk have them just 1.5 points better than the Broncos and I was expecting this line to be around pick 'em with the game in Denver (or even for the Patriots to be getting a point or two). However, with New England being a road favorite of a full field goal, the betting value looks to be<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> on the Broncos. As much as I love home underdogs, though, I can't pull the trigger on Denver.
</offer>
Tom Brady's 11-5 lifetime record versus Peyton Manning has been widely discussed and Bill Belichick's defensive schemes usually frustrate Manning. The Broncos won the regular-season meeting 30-24 in overtime, but that was with Brock Osweiler at QB and Denver ran for 179 yards (plus, the game might've been over if not for a muffed punt by New England). I expect Belichick and his defensive staff to make the necessary adjustments to limit the running game and pressure Manning into mistakes. The Broncos have been winning mostly thanks to their No. 1 defense, and while I expect the Patriots to have more success with Julian Edelman (who missed the last meeting) back in the lineup, I believe this will be lower-scoring than that first game. I'm still not sure if I'll bite the bullet and bet the Patriots as the chalk or tease the Broncos, but I know I'll be on the under, which I'm hoping will be bet a little higher by kickoff Sunday.
The pick: Under 44.5.
Rynning: The Patriots flexed their playoff muscles last week, taking care of business against the Chiefs. In turn, the betting marketplace regained its confidence in the Brady-Belichick regime and the Patriots' return to health at the skill positions this week to position them as the field goal-plus favorite. However, I prefer the better defense of the Broncos and stronger running game, as well as the fact that Denver is getting points on its home turf.
The Patriots allowed 179 yards on the ground in the Week 12 matchup and were outgained on the ground last week by 97 yards. Even with New England's occasional disdain for its running attack, this is still an issue. I regard the Broncos as having the better stop-unit, although it showed some slippage down the stretch. However, the Steelers gained 275 yards of their offense last Sunday on just eight plays, while the Patriots are not known as a big-play offense. I'll stick with the fundamentals and the points with the Broncos.
The pick: Denver +3
Wunderdog: While a gut-feel approach to this game says the Patriots roll, there is reason to believe in the home 'dog. The Broncos are the NFL's top defense against the run and the pass, and led the league in sacks. Denver is also No. 4 in points allowed, giving up just 13, 20, 10, 24, 15, 17, 20 and 16 points in eight of its nine home games. And one of those was a 30-24 OT win in Week 12 over this Patriots team.
The Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games on grass, plus 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New England is a one-dimensional offense -- all passing -- which makes it easier for defensive coordinators. In Week 17 Miami used a nickel pass defense to open the game, daring the Patriots to run. New England took the bait, trying to run, but couldn't behind a bad offensive line and lost 20-10 as 10-point favorites.
The Patriots have been hit by injuries all season long, losing their top running back (Dion Lewis), their top offensive lineman (Nate Solder) and depth on the defensive line with LB Jerod Mayo and DE Dominique Easley. Last week in the playoffs their top LBs (Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins) left early with injuries; they will both play but are not 100 percent. Hightower is their best run-stuffer and after he was lost in the earlier meeting in Denver, the Broncos' running game got going; the Patriots managed just 39 yards on 16 carries. Take the points with Denver.
The pick: Denver +3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]74.5 receiving yards by Rob Gronkowski (O/U -110)
The Broncos' defense deserves every bit of publicity it has received this season. It is the only defensive unit allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game and is a nightmare for wide receivers. Opposing wideouts have racked up 1,963 yards and 6.94 yards per target, both the lowest marks in the league. But tight ends? The Broncos have allowed 914 yards by tight ends this season, tied for ninth most. Only seven defenses allowed at least 900 yards and seven TD receptions by tight ends this season; none of them is still playing.
The Broncos have faced Gronkowski already and had every reason to focus on Gronk as New England's top pass-catching threat. The other starting skill players for New England that day were Brandon LaFell, Keshawn Martin, Scott Chandler and LeGarrette Blount, none of whom entered the Week 12 game with more than 17 receptions on the season. Gronkowski left with an injured knee in the second half and still finished with six receptions for 88 yards. Adding Edelman and Danny Amendola should give Gronk a little more room to operate.
The play: Over
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (Yes -165, No +145)
Tom Brady threw 36 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, but "no" is paying out +145? Brady has thrown an interception in 43 of 91 games including playoffs during the past five years (47 percent) and 16 of 36 in the past two (44 percent); that's almost the opposite of the +145 payout.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>Name recognition in the opposing defense is a driving force, and the Broncos' pass defense has been good this season. But the Broncos haven't necessarily been ball hawks -- Denver intercepted 14 passes this season, tied with three other teams for 13th in the league. Should Brady or Manning meet the Panthers (24, most) or Cardinals (19, fourth most) in the Super Bowl, maybe this prop comes back. But Brady just beat the team with the second-most interceptions in the divisional round 27-20 with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. "No" would be a decent play at a pick 'em, but at plus-145? Definitely.
The play: No (+145)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<footer class="article-footer" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; padding-top: 0px; max-width: 640px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
</footer>
