[h=1]Where early betting money is going for Super Bowl 50[/h]
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- When football fans get together on Monday to talk, post or tweet about Super Bowl 50, many of them are going to casually remark that theCarolina Panthers opened as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos.
Nine of the 14 Nevada books opened Carolina -4 (as well as a majority of the offshore books) and that was the consensus line at the end of wagering on Sunday night with eight of the Nevada books settling in at that number, but it doesn't tell the whole story of how we arrived at that spread. As we've done in this "Opening Line" column all season, we'll discuss how this line got bet into place, including a look at the advance line, how different books posted their numbers and where the line is likely to move in the coming weeks.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Evolution of Super Bowl 50 odds[/h]Note: "Advance" was the line posted last week; Opener was posted Sunday night after matchup was finalized; "End Sunday" was line by the end of betting on Sunday night.
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For starters, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted advance lines last week for the four possible Super Bowl 50 matchups based on where Jay Kornegay and his staff of oddsmakers thought the line would open if those teams advanced. For the Broncos-Panthers matchup, they posted Carolina as a three-point favorite over Denver with an over/under of 43 points. As with all speculative lines like this, the game must take place for wagers to be valid (otherwise, they're refunded).
In the early game Sunday, the Broncos held off the Patriots 20-18 in the AFC Championship Game after closing as consensus three-point home underdogs and +130 on the money line. During the first quarter of the NFC title game, the Greek offshore book posted its two possible Super Bowl lines with Carolina -3 over Denver and Arizona -2.5 over Denver. While the Panthers were jumping out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, the BetOnline offshore book (which also had advance lines like the Westgate, and the lowest I saw was Carolina -2) popped up on the Don Best screen at Carolina -3 (-120). Early bettors jumped all over the Panthers and bet both books up to 3.5 and then 4 by the time the Panthers led 24-7 at halftime. That's when offshore giant Pinnacle joined the fray also with Carolina -4 at 8:28 p.m. ET.
Those three books sat at that number as the NFC title game went into the third quarter and Nevada books (which traditionally used to wait until at least the fourth quarter of a title game blowout to post opening lines before offshore books really started pushing the envelope in recent years) stayed on the sidelines. Station Casinos was the first Vegas book to pop up on the Don Best screen with Carolina -4 at 9:04 p.m. ET/6:04 p.m. PT (we'll stick with Eastern Time the rest of this report). That was right before the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made the bold move of opening Carolina -5.5 at 9:06 p.m. ET.
Around that same time, the Greek (tweeting @BetTheGreek) reported that sharp action had forced it to drop the line to 3.5, so it wasn't surprising that sharp bettors with access to the Westgate (which just added its mobile phone app for in-state bettors this past week) jumped all over Denver +5.5. The Denver +5.5 line only last 5 minutes until 9:11 p.m. ET and then it was another 2 minutes before it was bet down to 4.5 and another 6 minutes to get bet down to where the rest of the market sat at Carolina -4 at 9:19 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, Pinnacle joined the Greek at Carolina -3.5 at 9:18 p.m. ET and stayed at that number the rest of the night, even after the Greek went back to Carolina -4 at 9:44 p.m. ET
By the time the Panthers completed their 49-15 rout of the Cardinals at 9:58 p.m. ET, Carolina -4 was the consensus line in Nevada with 10 of the 13 books on the Don Best screen (Jerry's Nugget was the only book to not have opened by that time) at Carolina -4. Treasure Island had the lowest line at Carolina -3 (-125) with Boyd Gaming the highest at Carolina -4.5.
By the time the Vegas books closed late Sunday night, Carolina -4 was still the most common line at 8 of the 14 books, though Caesars, MGM, Stations and the Stratosphere had joined Boyd Gaming at 4.5. Pinnacle and Treasure Island were the last books holding the line at Carolina -3.5.
On Monday morning, several of the Las Vegas books had gone to Carolina -4.5.
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</article>The over/under didn't take such a circuitous route. As mentioned before, the Westgate's advance total was 43. The early offshore books went with 44 and then as the Panthers continued to run up the score (and they were the league's top scoring team this year), later books went with 44.5 (including the Westgate) and those got slowly bet up to 45. At 9:36 p.m. ET, the Wynn Las Vegas opened higher than any other book at 45.5, but by the time the Panthers finished their 49-15 victory at 9:58 p.m. ET, the majority of Nevada books had joined them at 45.5.
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- When football fans get together on Monday to talk, post or tweet about Super Bowl 50, many of them are going to casually remark that theCarolina Panthers opened as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos.
Nine of the 14 Nevada books opened Carolina -4 (as well as a majority of the offshore books) and that was the consensus line at the end of wagering on Sunday night with eight of the Nevada books settling in at that number, but it doesn't tell the whole story of how we arrived at that spread. As we've done in this "Opening Line" column all season, we'll discuss how this line got bet into place, including a look at the advance line, how different books posted their numbers and where the line is likely to move in the coming weeks.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Evolution of Super Bowl 50 odds[/h]Note: "Advance" was the line posted last week; Opener was posted Sunday night after matchup was finalized; "End Sunday" was line by the end of betting on Sunday night.
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| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | ADVANCE | OPENER | END SUNDAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | Denver | -3 | -5.5 | -4 |
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For starters, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted advance lines last week for the four possible Super Bowl 50 matchups based on where Jay Kornegay and his staff of oddsmakers thought the line would open if those teams advanced. For the Broncos-Panthers matchup, they posted Carolina as a three-point favorite over Denver with an over/under of 43 points. As with all speculative lines like this, the game must take place for wagers to be valid (otherwise, they're refunded).
In the early game Sunday, the Broncos held off the Patriots 20-18 in the AFC Championship Game after closing as consensus three-point home underdogs and +130 on the money line. During the first quarter of the NFC title game, the Greek offshore book posted its two possible Super Bowl lines with Carolina -3 over Denver and Arizona -2.5 over Denver. While the Panthers were jumping out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, the BetOnline offshore book (which also had advance lines like the Westgate, and the lowest I saw was Carolina -2) popped up on the Don Best screen at Carolina -3 (-120). Early bettors jumped all over the Panthers and bet both books up to 3.5 and then 4 by the time the Panthers led 24-7 at halftime. That's when offshore giant Pinnacle joined the fray also with Carolina -4 at 8:28 p.m. ET.
Those three books sat at that number as the NFC title game went into the third quarter and Nevada books (which traditionally used to wait until at least the fourth quarter of a title game blowout to post opening lines before offshore books really started pushing the envelope in recent years) stayed on the sidelines. Station Casinos was the first Vegas book to pop up on the Don Best screen with Carolina -4 at 9:04 p.m. ET/6:04 p.m. PT (we'll stick with Eastern Time the rest of this report). That was right before the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made the bold move of opening Carolina -5.5 at 9:06 p.m. ET.
Around that same time, the Greek (tweeting @BetTheGreek) reported that sharp action had forced it to drop the line to 3.5, so it wasn't surprising that sharp bettors with access to the Westgate (which just added its mobile phone app for in-state bettors this past week) jumped all over Denver +5.5. The Denver +5.5 line only last 5 minutes until 9:11 p.m. ET and then it was another 2 minutes before it was bet down to 4.5 and another 6 minutes to get bet down to where the rest of the market sat at Carolina -4 at 9:19 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, Pinnacle joined the Greek at Carolina -3.5 at 9:18 p.m. ET and stayed at that number the rest of the night, even after the Greek went back to Carolina -4 at 9:44 p.m. ET
By the time the Panthers completed their 49-15 rout of the Cardinals at 9:58 p.m. ET, Carolina -4 was the consensus line in Nevada with 10 of the 13 books on the Don Best screen (Jerry's Nugget was the only book to not have opened by that time) at Carolina -4. Treasure Island had the lowest line at Carolina -3 (-125) with Boyd Gaming the highest at Carolina -4.5.
By the time the Vegas books closed late Sunday night, Carolina -4 was still the most common line at 8 of the 14 books, though Caesars, MGM, Stations and the Stratosphere had joined Boyd Gaming at 4.5. Pinnacle and Treasure Island were the last books holding the line at Carolina -3.5.
On Monday morning, several of the Las Vegas books had gone to Carolina -4.5.
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</article>The over/under didn't take such a circuitous route. As mentioned before, the Westgate's advance total was 43. The early offshore books went with 44 and then as the Panthers continued to run up the score (and they were the league's top scoring team this year), later books went with 44.5 (including the Westgate) and those got slowly bet up to 45. At 9:36 p.m. ET, the Wynn Las Vegas opened higher than any other book at 45.5, but by the time the Panthers finished their 49-15 victory at 9:58 p.m. ET, the majority of Nevada books had joined them at 45.5.
