Service Plays for Super Bowl 50 Sunday 2-7-16

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GOODFELLA

3* Carolina (play up to -7)

Dave Essler:
Carolina Panthers -5 (obviously got his line earlier and said take it up to -6)

He also does pretty good with props and I will post them when he puts them out

SPARTAN- Carolina -5

Stephen Nover | NFL Side Sun, 02/07/16 – 6:30 PM
Double-Dime bet • 102 DEN 4.5 (-120) Bet33 vs 101 CAR
Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games.
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It’s not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks.
Carolina’s defense isn’t as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl.
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl – back in 2003.
They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0.
The Broncos are ‘dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he’s looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he’s in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite – capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning’s regular season statistics show horrific numbers – a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn’t turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots.
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart’s equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game.
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers’ defense isn’t nearly as dominant as Seattle’s was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen.
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn’t Newton’s strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos’ elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him.
Pick Made: Jan 25 2016

PREDICTION MACHINE

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
102 6:30 PM DENVER ♦Lock of the Week♦ vs CAROLINA • 6 •-2.6 • 58.9% • $68

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
101 6:30 PM CAR vs DEN • 22.6 • 19.9 • 57.1%

OVER/UNDER PICKS
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
102 6:30 PM CAR vs DEN • 45.5 • 42.5 • Under 55.1% • $29

BWs plays: Carolina -4, line is -6, over 45, line moved to 45 1/2, many houses in Vegas at 45 1/2, off-shore @ Betonline is 44 1/2. GL!

moneymax said:

Dave Essler:
Carolina Panthers -5 (obviously got his line earlier and said take it up to -6)


He also does pretty good with props and I will post them when he puts them out

Click to expand...

The Play on Carolina is a Double-Dime Bet
Essler is also going with the under of 45 as a single dime bet.

Here are his Props:
#1182: First TD rushing/Special Teams/Defensive +145
With two of the best defenses and two weeks to prepare - I'll take my chances, especially w/Newton
#621: Any Scoreless Quarter +250
Again, see defenses and turnovers - certainly worth that price
#3883: Denver scores 6 points in the first quarter
Almost a slight hedge if the game slides the wrong way early - plus, it IS Manning who IS capable
#4299: A horse collar penalty +525
Again, two aggressive defenses and at that price it's worth something
#4309: Offsetting penalties called +173
Because it seems to happen all the time - even early unsportsmanlike as refs take control a possibility
#6901: Aqib Talib intercepts a pass +300
Because we did this last year - he's been there/done that and may bait Newton

The Champ, aka Tony Chau. Paid for and confirmed by me.

Thanks for your order!​

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Betting Line Moves

Denver/Carolina Under 44.5

Wayne Root Trust Football Service



Millionaire
Panthers/Broncos UNDER 45 Points
3:30 PM (EST) -- Levi's Stadium


Pinnacle
Broncos (+5½) over Panthers
3:30 PM (EST) -- Levi's Stadium

Denver Broncos 1) Wayne''s LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS! 2) Classic "Sharps vs Squares" matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps. 3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it''s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history...and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can''t resist)...D almost always wins. I''ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver. 4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it''s Peyton. Edge: Denver. 5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago...he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather- as of now forecast is 68 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver. 6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver. 7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver. 8) Line moves- line opened +3 1/2. Today it''s 6. That alone is very significant. Those 2 1/2 points could determine the game. Denver now covers or pushes all the statistically important NFL numbers- 3, 4 and 6. Edge: Denver. 9) The team with the worst recordhas won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into "chip on shoulder" psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver. 10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a "big game." I define "come from behind" as behind 7 or more at any time in any game...and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver ---------------- According to William Hill US Sportsbook, 93% of the money wagered against the spread so far has come in on the Panthers. In addition, 81 percent of the tickets have had Carolina listed on them. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +190).



12 Super Bowl Props


1) Denver. -2.5. +210
2) First score of game: Denver field goal.
3) Will there be an overtime. Yes, +700
4) Total points scored by Carolina. Under 25, -105
5) First team to score 10 PT''s or more; Denver. +140
6) Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points? Yes +350
7) MVP Von Miller. 20/1
8) Owen Daniels total receiving yards. Over 31.5. -120
9) Emmanuel Sanders total pass receptions over 5.5. -115
10) Will Denver score a TD in the 3rd quarter? Yes. +125
11) Alternative game total. Under 38.5 +240
12) Largest lead of game by either team. Under 13.5. +160

Stat 13 said:

Anyone hear who Colin Cowherd picked?

Click to expand...

Colin Cowherd likes Carolina by 11 points

moneymax said:

I didn't buy it but I would think they would be on Denver +6. It fits everything they always write about...contrarian betting on the team that's receiving the lower percent of bets, there was a "sharp" action triggered on Denver, and there's potential for reverse line movement if the line moves down from 6.

Again I didn't buy the pick but they are pretty transparent in who they are taking.

Click to expand...

Sportsinsights is on the under 45. Confirmed by me.

Don Best Advantage

Denver +5.5
Denver/Carolina Under 45

NYC-Italian said:

Must be a typo at 42?

Click to expand...

its alternate o/u 42 @ 2.25 price

marc lawrence

phone plays DENVER