Ultimate Super Bowl 50 betting guide
NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Another marquee Super Bowl is upon us, with the Carolina Panthers taking on the Denver Broncos. For the third straight season, the top seed in each conference has reached the big game, and this one is expected to break the all-time Super Bowl betting handle of $119.4 million set two years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII between Seattle and Denver.
Chalk's Super Bowl Betting Guide aims to bring you a comprehensive look at Super Bowl 50 and hopefully produce as many winners as last year's guide.
Insider's team of pro football handicappers (Dave Tuley, Geoff Kulesa fromwunderdog.com, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp) as well as John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information, will give their thoughts on the point spread and over/under as well as breaking down a bunch of the ever-popular proposition bets.
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.
Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos (in Santa Clara, California)
Spread: Opened Carolina -4; now Carolina -6
Total: Opened 45; now 45.5
Public Consensus pick: 72 percent picked Carolina
Tuley's take: I know everyone who follows me is assuming I would be on the underdog in the Super Bowl, but I wasn't so sure myself. Based on the Westgate SuperBook's advance line of Carolina -3 and my personal power ratings, I didn't think I would be getting enough points to get me to back Denver. (Note: I have faded Peyton Manning often in his career, never more so than in the Super Bowl two years ago against Seattle.)
But then a funny thing happened, as the early Denver backers backed off and it's been a landslide of money on Carolina to push the line all the way to Carolina -6. That's enough of an overadjustment for me to get involved on the Denver side.
The best reason to back the Broncos is their No. 1-rated defense; it's the main reason Denver is here. What gives me pause is that the Panthers have shredded two very good defenses in Seattle and Arizona the past two weeks as Carolina, the league's top-scoring team in the regular season at 31.3 points per game, has been even better in the playoffs. I'm counting on the two-week break giving Wade Phillips and the Denver defensive coaches a better chance to game plan for Cam Newton & Co. The key will be if they can avoid the first-half onslaught that doomed the Seahawks and Cardinals.
I believe the Broncos can do that, which leads me to look at the under as Carolina's defense is rated No. 4 while Denver has run hot and cold on offense throughout the year (partly due to Manning starting the season in more of a game-manager role and also because of his injuries). I don't expect the Broncos to suddenly explode against the Panthers' defense, but they certainly have ample talent to score enough to keep this close.
The pick: Denver +6 (lean on the under 45.5).
Rynning: It's difficult to deny the Panthers' accomplishments this season, and even the clear advantages they should own in this matchup. It's challenging to recall a team quite like the Panthers in recent NFL history, as their plus-28 turnover margin is an outlandish margin. Playing a weak schedule, they outgained their opposition by just over 40 yards per contest. Again, the Panthers can quickly counter the naysayers of the weak schedule with their controlling performances in the playoffs. However, the Broncos outgained their opposition by just over 55 yards per contest, and played a much more grueling schedule.
Wade Phillips continues to work a masterful job with an extremely talented defense. What goes up, generally always comes down in the league of parity. That speaks to a hint of value with the Broncos at +6 in an expected lower-scoring game dominated by defense.
The pick: Broncos +6 or more (and under the total).
NFL Vegas Rankings vs. Super Bowl 50 line
In the NFL Vegas Rankings before the conference championship games, our panel of ESPN Chalk NFL handicappers -- Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- had the Panthers rated 2.5 points better than the Broncos if they were to meet on a neutral field (which we obviously get in the Super Bowl). The Broncos beat the New England Patriots20-18 in the AFC Championship Game and the Panthers routed the Cardinals 49-15 for the NFC title, and I personally upgraded the Broncos by half a point and gave a full point upgrade to the Panthers, thus increasing Carolina to three points better.
We usually don't divulge our individual ratings, but when I asked Selvaggio and Rynning for their updated power ratings, they also said that they had the Panthers three points better than the Broncos. It looked like that was where the Super Bowl line was going to open a week ago Sunday, but the majority of oddsmakers made it Carolina -4. The vast majority of money has come in on the favored Panthers and pushed the line to six at a lot of books. That has all the appearance of an overadjustment in the eyes of our panel.
Value play: Denver +6.
Total: 45.5 points
Wunderdog: The weather should be nice in Santa Clara on Sunday: sunny and 65 degrees, which will help the offenses. Carolina has the league's top-scoring offense, while Denver's is middling. The aging Manning has had two weeks to rest, which has been critical for him late in his career. Denver might often play conservative, but this is the last game of the season for all the marbles. And Manning has great weapons on the outside, with a pair of quality running backs for balance in Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson, plus excellent tight end options in Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis.
First-year coach Gary Kubiak has gotten the job done, upgrading the ground game and bringing in a zone-blocking scheme. He was the Ravens' offensive coordinator last season and called a brilliant game in the playoffs when they nearly upset the eventual champion Patriots (a 35-31 thriller) as a big 'dog.
Carolina has scored 31 and 49 points in two playoffs games and is 19-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record since the arrival of Ron Rivera, including 9-0 to the over the past two seasons. Even though the Panthers dominated the first half, they surrendered 403 yards and 24 points to Seattle, so they are susceptible. Take the over.
The play: Over the total
Sharp: While I have backed the over in Carolina's playoff games with great success, including hitting my largest wager of the year on it against the Cardinals, I can't pull that trigger against the Broncos. First and foremost, this decision is driven by my math model which believes this total is very fair and not overly mispriced. Second, one of the keys that has aided the Panthers offensively is their ability to avoid third downs and generate larger chunk plays. However, the Broncos are the best at forcing teams into third down that the Panthers will have faced all year. And while I think the Panthers will do a better job converting on third down than the Patriots and Steelers, who went 4-of-27 (15 percent) in the playoff games, the simple fact that they will spend much of their offensive day in third down will inherently limit their ability to produce scores quickly and consistently.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest edge in this game for Denver might well be their run offense, particularly on third-and-short and in the red zone. Manning would be wise to ride the run game until he has to open up the pass game. But I believe Carolina knows that, and will sell out to stop the run early; the Patriots sold out to stop the run in the first half in the AFC title game, limiting the Broncos to 2.6 yards per carry. This Denver offense is not a quick-strike offense, and will be in their share of third downs as well, perhaps even more than they were their last couple of games. As such, I would not lean toward the over. It's unlikely I will be involved in the full game total at all.
The play: Pass
Best prop bets
Parolin: The Super Bowl is a prop bettor's dream. Considering all the cross-sport options, it's the only game of the year where there really is something for everyone.
To that point, my prop analysis for Super Bowl 50 has been separated into three categories: heavy favorites that are still the right call, props with -110 vig that I believe have value and the long shots that just might be worth a flier. Interspersed in analysis from our other handicappers on their favorite props.
Big favorites that I like to cash
Will there be a safety? (Yes +550, No -800)
Parolin: Sanity was restored in Super Bowl XLIX, with no safety recorded for the first time in four Super Bowls. Recent history will cloud the judgment of some, but stick to the numbers and don't let the three-year streak with a safety fool you. There have been 249 games with safeties in the last 15 years out of 3,996 total games played (including the postseason), which comes out to 6.23 percent of all NFL games. The -800 odds are less than the implied probability of the safety not happening. Take the no here.
The play: No (-800)
Will there be overtime? (Yes +550, No -800)
Parolin: It's the same odds as the safety prop, but does OT happen as often? We determined safeties happened in slightly more than 6 percent of games in the last 15 years, so let's apply the same test to overtime. In 3,996 total games played, there have been 242 wins and five ties. Give the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook credit -- the same odds at least reflect consistency between 247 overtime games and 249 games with a safety out of 3,996 total games. But the consistent relationship between data and odds in this case makes the advice very similar.
The play: No (-800)
Tuley: I want to start out by saying that a lot of people will say this is a sucker bet. And it's true that it has been -- no Super Bowl has gone to overtime (which also means that no bettor has ever cashed on the "yes" as long as the prop has been available). An argument can also certainly be made that the price is cheap at +550, but again I believe this game will be closer than most people think with the defenses setting the tone and that certainly increases the chances of the game being tied at the end of regulation.
The play: Yes +550
Will there be a successful two-point conversion? (Yes +330, No -400)
Parolin: Neither coach was particularly tempted during the regular season -- the Broncos were 0-for-1, and the Panthers waited until the NFC Championship Game to attempt their only two-point conversion this season, a successful attempt against the Cardinals. Denver did convert against the Steelers in the divisional round, leaving the teams with two successful conversions in 18 "combined" games played (11.1 percent of games). So much for Analytical Ron.
The play: No (-400)
Will Bradley Roby have an interception? (Yes +600, No -900)
Parolin: Denver's 2014 first-round pick from Ohio State, Roby is a fine nickel corner. He had one pick in 18 games this season (his intercepted two-point conversion in last week's AFC Championship Game technically doesn't count as a pick), so his odds are long to begin with. The bigger problem isn't with Roby's skill level, but with his lack of opportunity. Playing behind Chris Harris andAqib Talib leaves Roby involved largely against three-wide receiver sets. Roby played only 160 snaps this season when the other team had at least two tight ends on the field.
Carolina used at least two tight ends on 550 snaps this season, second most in the league. That was over half of the Panthers' plays, and would likely leave Roby on the sideline more often than usual. This isn't to mention the possibility that Carolina could run the ball more if it has a lead.
The play: No (-900)
Props closer to even odds with value
3.5 receptions by Ted Ginn Jr. (O/U -110)
Parolin: Ginn Jr. has been targeted three times in the entire playoffs on 39 total routes run (7.7 percent of routes). How low is that percentage? There were 349 players targeted at least 10 times this season (including playoffs), and Ginn's 7.7 target percentage is lower than all of them. The only other players under 10 percent were Marlon Moore, Levine Toilolo and Kellen Davis in that sample. If there needed to be more reasons to avoid a player getting looks less often than Levine Toilolo did, it's the opponent. Denver will employ maybe the best cornerback duo in the NFL between Talib and Harris. Ginn will have a chance to make an impact, but it's unlikely it will be with high target volume.
The play: Under
13.5 yards for Cam Newton's first Pass TD (O/U -110)
Parolin: Newton threw 35 touchdown passes this season, split into 19 TDs at 13 yards or shorter and 16 TDs at 14 or more. Denver allowed only 19 total TDs this season, split into 11 at the shorter distance and eight that would classify as "overs." The combined advantage between the two is 30 "unders" and 24 "overs," giving a slight advantage to the under bet. More support for the under comes with Denver's intermediate-to-deep passing defense. The Broncos allowed a 41.3 completion percentage on throws deeper than 10 yards downfield, fourth-best in the league. The Broncos are the only team in the league allowing less than 9.0 yards per attempt on those throws, and might require the Panthers to get a little closer to the end zone to convert through the air.
The play: Under
235.5 passing yards by Peyton Manning (O/U -110)
Parolin: Manning hasn't thrown for 236 yards in a game since Week 9. He was out of the lineup after Week 10, returned for nine pass attempts in Week 17 and then had back-to-back weeks of full work in home games against the Steelers and Patriots. Manning finished under by 14 yards against Pittsburgh and by 60 yards against the Patriots.
He averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt in the last two playoff games, while the Panthers have only allowed 6.2 all season long. Using 6.0 as the average benchmark, Manning would need 39 pass attempts -- a number he hit in four of his 11 starts -- to get over the total. The garbage time potential is what looms here, but in a game featuring two elite defenses, trust your eyes on Manning (and the data on his total).
The play: Under
Tuley: Similar to the Newton prop above, Manning might hit a big play at some point in the game, but I believe the Broncos will be relying on the running game and short passes from him. The garbage time potential to rack up some years does exist, if Carolina is able to jump out to a lead.
The play: Under 235.5
6.5 receiving yards by Vernon Davis (O/U -110)
Parolin: The data on Davis is fairly conclusive, as he hasn't caught a single pass from Manning this season -- or a pass from anyone since Week 15. But the data to analyze won't necessarily come from Davis, but rather how other teams have approached the Super Bowl. Seattle's Chris Matthews had 109 receiving yards in last year's Super Bowl, while it was Percy Harvin the year before who had Seattle's longest rush. Randy Moss had San Francisco's longest reception in Super Bowl XLVII. The names of unlikely Super Bowl heroes are long: Mario Manningham, Antwaan Randle El and Austin Collie, to name a few more.
Davis still has enough athleticism to create separation, but back-to-back games with drops buried him on the Denver depth chart. He's working his way back on to the field, culminating in 10 snaps and a target last week against New England (incomplete); those are both the most he's had since Week 15. Returning to his former stadium is a plus, as are the positive words from his head coach. He doesn't need to catch the game-winning touchdown, he just needs 7 yards -- he'll get them.
The play: Over
12.5 total penalties (O: +110, U -130)
Accepted penalties only, offsetting and declined penalties do not count
Via William Hill
Wunderdog: In the 2015 NFL season, games have averaged 13.8 total penalties. However, the Super Bowl is the biggest game of them all, and no one wants to see it decided by the referees. The refs know this and just like in other big games (NBA finals, college football/basketball championship games, etc.), the refs have a tendency to swallow their whistles. Everyone, including the referees, wants the game decided on the field by the players.
The bulk of regular-season NFL games see between 10 and 13 penalties called. In the Super Bowl, the most common numbers are 8, 9 and 10. Since 2001, only 51 playoff games have gone over 12 penalties (compared to 109 that have fallen below 13). In 2015, only three of 10 playoffs games went over 12 penalties, which equates to far odds of -213. In games in which referee Clete Blakeman has presided, the average called penalties was 11.8 -- below this posted total even before we take into account the magnitude of this game. Thus, the case is very strong for the number of called penalties in this game failing to reach 13. Take the under on this prop.
The play: Under
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6.5 MINUTES OF THE GAME?
**(Includes safety)
YES +120
NO -140
Tuley: I don't often lay extra juice, but this does tie in with my expectation of a low-scoring first half. Hopefully, the offenses start conservatively and we get a couple of three-and-outs.
The play: No -140
TOTAL POINTS BY: PANTHERS
OVER 25.5 -110
UNDER 25.5 -110
Tuley: I certainly need the Denver team to step up, but with my lean on the under, I'm projecting the Panthers to score between 20 and 24 points. This seems more likely to me than a very good Broncos D allowing 27 or more.
The play: Under 25.5
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.5 -200
UNDER 13.5 +175
Tuley: Again, the key to a lot of my bets is the Panthers not jumping out to a huge early lead, but this one requires the game to stay relatively close throughout. And if we can keep Carolina under 25.5 points, that makes this bet more likely to cash.
The play: Under 13.5
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: CAM NEWTON (CAR)
**(If no Rushing Attempt -- Under is the winner)
OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110
Tuley: I also considered under 12.5 for Newton's longest run, but while I think he could get one longer run than that, I believe the Broncos defense and its athletic linebackers will be able to contain him overall to keep him under this number.
The play: Under 41.5
Lottery tickets
Will there be a missed extra point? (Yes +300, No -360)
Parolin: One solid way to find value in these props is by looking for overreaction potential based on recent history. It doesn't get much more recent than the AFC Championship Game, when Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowskimissed his first extra point attempt of the season. Graham Gano was not as reliable as Gostkowski, but was 65-for-68 converting extra points including the playoffs. Gano hadn't missed in the last six games, and hit all his extra points in 15 of his 18 games played this year. Brandon McManus was 37-of-38 this season on extra points including the playoffs. Between the two of them, that's a missed extra point in four of the 18 games they played (22 percent of games).
We started assuming value would be found here due to recency bias, but that's almost dead on the +300/-360 split. Now consider the added pressure of the Super Bowl in conjunction with an untested new surface to solve the well-publicized field problems at Levi's Stadium -- it's not unreasonable to think these factors could push a kick wide.
The play: Yes (+300)
Sharp: This prop isn't for everyone, and it's not one to go heavy on if you don't want your heart pumping after every touchdown. These two kickers have combined to go 102-of-106 on extra point attempts this year (96 percent), and at -380, it is implying the odds to beat are 78 percent. Even if this was -500, that implies you need to beat 83 percent. The "yes" on this bet is +300, meaning it needs to happen 25 percent of the time to win. Even if there are five TDs with extra point attempts, you need one of them to miss (20 percent) -- and these guys missed only 3.8 percent this year. There is more pressure in the Super Bowl, but this prop is priced quite poorly in my opinion.
The play: No -360
Will Ted Ginn Jr. have a rushing attempt? (Yes +280, No -340)
Parolin: Ginn had six rushes this season, including two in a game against theRedskins way back in November. So why is he a worthy lotto ticket on Sunday?T.J. Ward, Darian Stewart and Harris have all battled injuries affecting either mobility or tackling, and an end-around to make the Broncos secondary tackle an explosive player makes sense.
Teams have tried that against the banged-up Broncos defense in creative ways down the stretch -- the Bengals used Mohamed Sanu on two rushes (including a touchdown) in Week 16, San Diego's Javontee Herndon had one in Week 17 and Pittsburgh's Martavis Bryant had two (including a 40-yarder) in the divisional round. Ginn fits the profile of the receiver who would be given a chance on Sunday.
The play: Yes (+280)
Sharp: At first blush, this prop looks priced appropriately, as +280 odds imply about a 26 percent likelihood. Ginn has recorded at least one rushing attempt in five of his 17 games, or 29 percent. However, a quick look at the games when Ginn rushed the ball tells us that the Panthers like to run him more to keep the edge rushers honest. And they gave him a carry in each of their playoff games so far.
Denver blitzes at the fourth-highest rate of any team in the NFL and their edge rushers are quite active. If the edge rushers crash down on the read-option too much, a reverse to Ginn at least once will create a big play for Carolina, or at a minimum, could keep the defense honest. I think it's far more likely in this particular game that Ginn gets one carry about 50 percent of the time, which means +100 odds; at +280, it's a definite buy.
Will Jonathan Stewart score a first-half TD? (Yes +330, No -400)
Parolin: This seems a little steep toward no. Stewart had seven first-half touchdowns in 15 games this season (including playoffs), though he scored twice against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. That left him with first-half scores in six of 15 games, but all six of Stewart's games with first-half touchdowns came since Week 8 (his last nine games).
Since Week 8 and including the playoffs, the Panthers have 93 more first-half points than any team in the league. They're averaging 21.1 points per game before halftime in that span, almost six points ahead of the next-closest team. There's value in "yes" here.
The play: Yes
Other
Tuley: In last year's Super Bowl Betting Guide, I had the biggest score (and guaranteed a winning day by halftime) with a bet known as "Double Result" in which you try to pick the winner of the first half parlayed to the game winner. However, I opted to bet the first-half tie to both teams winning (both bets were listed at 15-1); the reason I loved the bet is that I was basically getting 7-1 on a pick 'em game to be tied at halftime! I've already fired again on this bet.
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</article>It's not as ideal as last year's pick 'em scenario with Carolina favored by six points (and a three-point first-half favorite), but I also believe it's going to be a tighter game and lower-scoring than expected with Denver and Carolina's elite defenses. As long as the Broncos can avoid getting run over early like we saw the Panthers do to both the Seahawks and Cardinals, I think we'll see a relatively uneventful first half in which we just need the teams to trade a score or two to get us to our halftime tie: a 10-10 score seems reasonable. If we get the tie, our overall bet (since we will lose one of the wagers) will net 7-2 odds if Carolina wins the game and 7-1 if Denver wins.
WILL THE GAME BE TIED AFTER 0-0?
**Score is counted after the completion of extra point or two-point conversion
YES +110
NO -130
Tuley: This coincides in with my belief that you should bet the way you think the game will turn out. Since I expect a close game, this prop pays us off at plus money if the game is tied later on in the game (and unlike my previous bet, it doesn't have to be at exactly halftime).
The play: Yes +110
NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Another marquee Super Bowl is upon us, with the Carolina Panthers taking on the Denver Broncos. For the third straight season, the top seed in each conference has reached the big game, and this one is expected to break the all-time Super Bowl betting handle of $119.4 million set two years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII between Seattle and Denver.
Chalk's Super Bowl Betting Guide aims to bring you a comprehensive look at Super Bowl 50 and hopefully produce as many winners as last year's guide.
Insider's team of pro football handicappers (Dave Tuley, Geoff Kulesa fromwunderdog.com, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp) as well as John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information, will give their thoughts on the point spread and over/under as well as breaking down a bunch of the ever-popular proposition bets.
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.
Spread: Opened Carolina -4; now Carolina -6
Total: Opened 45; now 45.5
Public Consensus pick: 72 percent picked Carolina
Tuley's take: I know everyone who follows me is assuming I would be on the underdog in the Super Bowl, but I wasn't so sure myself. Based on the Westgate SuperBook's advance line of Carolina -3 and my personal power ratings, I didn't think I would be getting enough points to get me to back Denver. (Note: I have faded Peyton Manning often in his career, never more so than in the Super Bowl two years ago against Seattle.)
But then a funny thing happened, as the early Denver backers backed off and it's been a landslide of money on Carolina to push the line all the way to Carolina -6. That's enough of an overadjustment for me to get involved on the Denver side.
The best reason to back the Broncos is their No. 1-rated defense; it's the main reason Denver is here. What gives me pause is that the Panthers have shredded two very good defenses in Seattle and Arizona the past two weeks as Carolina, the league's top-scoring team in the regular season at 31.3 points per game, has been even better in the playoffs. I'm counting on the two-week break giving Wade Phillips and the Denver defensive coaches a better chance to game plan for Cam Newton & Co. The key will be if they can avoid the first-half onslaught that doomed the Seahawks and Cardinals.
I believe the Broncos can do that, which leads me to look at the under as Carolina's defense is rated No. 4 while Denver has run hot and cold on offense throughout the year (partly due to Manning starting the season in more of a game-manager role and also because of his injuries). I don't expect the Broncos to suddenly explode against the Panthers' defense, but they certainly have ample talent to score enough to keep this close.
The pick: Denver +6 (lean on the under 45.5).
Rynning: It's difficult to deny the Panthers' accomplishments this season, and even the clear advantages they should own in this matchup. It's challenging to recall a team quite like the Panthers in recent NFL history, as their plus-28 turnover margin is an outlandish margin. Playing a weak schedule, they outgained their opposition by just over 40 yards per contest. Again, the Panthers can quickly counter the naysayers of the weak schedule with their controlling performances in the playoffs. However, the Broncos outgained their opposition by just over 55 yards per contest, and played a much more grueling schedule.
Wade Phillips continues to work a masterful job with an extremely talented defense. What goes up, generally always comes down in the league of parity. That speaks to a hint of value with the Broncos at +6 in an expected lower-scoring game dominated by defense.
The pick: Broncos +6 or more (and under the total).
NFL Vegas Rankings vs. Super Bowl 50 line
In the NFL Vegas Rankings before the conference championship games, our panel of ESPN Chalk NFL handicappers -- Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- had the Panthers rated 2.5 points better than the Broncos if they were to meet on a neutral field (which we obviously get in the Super Bowl). The Broncos beat the New England Patriots20-18 in the AFC Championship Game and the Panthers routed the Cardinals 49-15 for the NFC title, and I personally upgraded the Broncos by half a point and gave a full point upgrade to the Panthers, thus increasing Carolina to three points better.
We usually don't divulge our individual ratings, but when I asked Selvaggio and Rynning for their updated power ratings, they also said that they had the Panthers three points better than the Broncos. It looked like that was where the Super Bowl line was going to open a week ago Sunday, but the majority of oddsmakers made it Carolina -4. The vast majority of money has come in on the favored Panthers and pushed the line to six at a lot of books. That has all the appearance of an overadjustment in the eyes of our panel.
Value play: Denver +6.
Total: 45.5 points
Wunderdog: The weather should be nice in Santa Clara on Sunday: sunny and 65 degrees, which will help the offenses. Carolina has the league's top-scoring offense, while Denver's is middling. The aging Manning has had two weeks to rest, which has been critical for him late in his career. Denver might often play conservative, but this is the last game of the season for all the marbles. And Manning has great weapons on the outside, with a pair of quality running backs for balance in Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson, plus excellent tight end options in Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis.
First-year coach Gary Kubiak has gotten the job done, upgrading the ground game and bringing in a zone-blocking scheme. He was the Ravens' offensive coordinator last season and called a brilliant game in the playoffs when they nearly upset the eventual champion Patriots (a 35-31 thriller) as a big 'dog.
Carolina has scored 31 and 49 points in two playoffs games and is 19-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record since the arrival of Ron Rivera, including 9-0 to the over the past two seasons. Even though the Panthers dominated the first half, they surrendered 403 yards and 24 points to Seattle, so they are susceptible. Take the over.
The play: Over the total
Sharp: While I have backed the over in Carolina's playoff games with great success, including hitting my largest wager of the year on it against the Cardinals, I can't pull that trigger against the Broncos. First and foremost, this decision is driven by my math model which believes this total is very fair and not overly mispriced. Second, one of the keys that has aided the Panthers offensively is their ability to avoid third downs and generate larger chunk plays. However, the Broncos are the best at forcing teams into third down that the Panthers will have faced all year. And while I think the Panthers will do a better job converting on third down than the Patriots and Steelers, who went 4-of-27 (15 percent) in the playoff games, the simple fact that they will spend much of their offensive day in third down will inherently limit their ability to produce scores quickly and consistently.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest edge in this game for Denver might well be their run offense, particularly on third-and-short and in the red zone. Manning would be wise to ride the run game until he has to open up the pass game. But I believe Carolina knows that, and will sell out to stop the run early; the Patriots sold out to stop the run in the first half in the AFC title game, limiting the Broncos to 2.6 yards per carry. This Denver offense is not a quick-strike offense, and will be in their share of third downs as well, perhaps even more than they were their last couple of games. As such, I would not lean toward the over. It's unlikely I will be involved in the full game total at all.
The play: Pass
Best prop bets
Parolin: The Super Bowl is a prop bettor's dream. Considering all the cross-sport options, it's the only game of the year where there really is something for everyone.
To that point, my prop analysis for Super Bowl 50 has been separated into three categories: heavy favorites that are still the right call, props with -110 vig that I believe have value and the long shots that just might be worth a flier. Interspersed in analysis from our other handicappers on their favorite props.
Big favorites that I like to cash
Will there be a safety? (Yes +550, No -800)
Parolin: Sanity was restored in Super Bowl XLIX, with no safety recorded for the first time in four Super Bowls. Recent history will cloud the judgment of some, but stick to the numbers and don't let the three-year streak with a safety fool you. There have been 249 games with safeties in the last 15 years out of 3,996 total games played (including the postseason), which comes out to 6.23 percent of all NFL games. The -800 odds are less than the implied probability of the safety not happening. Take the no here.
The play: No (-800)
Will there be overtime? (Yes +550, No -800)
Parolin: It's the same odds as the safety prop, but does OT happen as often? We determined safeties happened in slightly more than 6 percent of games in the last 15 years, so let's apply the same test to overtime. In 3,996 total games played, there have been 242 wins and five ties. Give the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook credit -- the same odds at least reflect consistency between 247 overtime games and 249 games with a safety out of 3,996 total games. But the consistent relationship between data and odds in this case makes the advice very similar.
The play: No (-800)
Tuley: I want to start out by saying that a lot of people will say this is a sucker bet. And it's true that it has been -- no Super Bowl has gone to overtime (which also means that no bettor has ever cashed on the "yes" as long as the prop has been available). An argument can also certainly be made that the price is cheap at +550, but again I believe this game will be closer than most people think with the defenses setting the tone and that certainly increases the chances of the game being tied at the end of regulation.
The play: Yes +550
Will there be a successful two-point conversion? (Yes +330, No -400)
Parolin: Neither coach was particularly tempted during the regular season -- the Broncos were 0-for-1, and the Panthers waited until the NFC Championship Game to attempt their only two-point conversion this season, a successful attempt against the Cardinals. Denver did convert against the Steelers in the divisional round, leaving the teams with two successful conversions in 18 "combined" games played (11.1 percent of games). So much for Analytical Ron.
The play: No (-400)
Will Bradley Roby have an interception? (Yes +600, No -900)
Parolin: Denver's 2014 first-round pick from Ohio State, Roby is a fine nickel corner. He had one pick in 18 games this season (his intercepted two-point conversion in last week's AFC Championship Game technically doesn't count as a pick), so his odds are long to begin with. The bigger problem isn't with Roby's skill level, but with his lack of opportunity. Playing behind Chris Harris andAqib Talib leaves Roby involved largely against three-wide receiver sets. Roby played only 160 snaps this season when the other team had at least two tight ends on the field.
Carolina used at least two tight ends on 550 snaps this season, second most in the league. That was over half of the Panthers' plays, and would likely leave Roby on the sideline more often than usual. This isn't to mention the possibility that Carolina could run the ball more if it has a lead.
The play: No (-900)
Props closer to even odds with value
3.5 receptions by Ted Ginn Jr. (O/U -110)
Parolin: Ginn Jr. has been targeted three times in the entire playoffs on 39 total routes run (7.7 percent of routes). How low is that percentage? There were 349 players targeted at least 10 times this season (including playoffs), and Ginn's 7.7 target percentage is lower than all of them. The only other players under 10 percent were Marlon Moore, Levine Toilolo and Kellen Davis in that sample. If there needed to be more reasons to avoid a player getting looks less often than Levine Toilolo did, it's the opponent. Denver will employ maybe the best cornerback duo in the NFL between Talib and Harris. Ginn will have a chance to make an impact, but it's unlikely it will be with high target volume.
The play: Under
13.5 yards for Cam Newton's first Pass TD (O/U -110)
Parolin: Newton threw 35 touchdown passes this season, split into 19 TDs at 13 yards or shorter and 16 TDs at 14 or more. Denver allowed only 19 total TDs this season, split into 11 at the shorter distance and eight that would classify as "overs." The combined advantage between the two is 30 "unders" and 24 "overs," giving a slight advantage to the under bet. More support for the under comes with Denver's intermediate-to-deep passing defense. The Broncos allowed a 41.3 completion percentage on throws deeper than 10 yards downfield, fourth-best in the league. The Broncos are the only team in the league allowing less than 9.0 yards per attempt on those throws, and might require the Panthers to get a little closer to the end zone to convert through the air.
The play: Under
235.5 passing yards by Peyton Manning (O/U -110)
Parolin: Manning hasn't thrown for 236 yards in a game since Week 9. He was out of the lineup after Week 10, returned for nine pass attempts in Week 17 and then had back-to-back weeks of full work in home games against the Steelers and Patriots. Manning finished under by 14 yards against Pittsburgh and by 60 yards against the Patriots.
He averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt in the last two playoff games, while the Panthers have only allowed 6.2 all season long. Using 6.0 as the average benchmark, Manning would need 39 pass attempts -- a number he hit in four of his 11 starts -- to get over the total. The garbage time potential is what looms here, but in a game featuring two elite defenses, trust your eyes on Manning (and the data on his total).
The play: Under
Tuley: Similar to the Newton prop above, Manning might hit a big play at some point in the game, but I believe the Broncos will be relying on the running game and short passes from him. The garbage time potential to rack up some years does exist, if Carolina is able to jump out to a lead.
The play: Under 235.5
6.5 receiving yards by Vernon Davis (O/U -110)
Parolin: The data on Davis is fairly conclusive, as he hasn't caught a single pass from Manning this season -- or a pass from anyone since Week 15. But the data to analyze won't necessarily come from Davis, but rather how other teams have approached the Super Bowl. Seattle's Chris Matthews had 109 receiving yards in last year's Super Bowl, while it was Percy Harvin the year before who had Seattle's longest rush. Randy Moss had San Francisco's longest reception in Super Bowl XLVII. The names of unlikely Super Bowl heroes are long: Mario Manningham, Antwaan Randle El and Austin Collie, to name a few more.
Davis still has enough athleticism to create separation, but back-to-back games with drops buried him on the Denver depth chart. He's working his way back on to the field, culminating in 10 snaps and a target last week against New England (incomplete); those are both the most he's had since Week 15. Returning to his former stadium is a plus, as are the positive words from his head coach. He doesn't need to catch the game-winning touchdown, he just needs 7 yards -- he'll get them.
The play: Over
12.5 total penalties (O: +110, U -130)
Accepted penalties only, offsetting and declined penalties do not count
Via William Hill
Wunderdog: In the 2015 NFL season, games have averaged 13.8 total penalties. However, the Super Bowl is the biggest game of them all, and no one wants to see it decided by the referees. The refs know this and just like in other big games (NBA finals, college football/basketball championship games, etc.), the refs have a tendency to swallow their whistles. Everyone, including the referees, wants the game decided on the field by the players.
The bulk of regular-season NFL games see between 10 and 13 penalties called. In the Super Bowl, the most common numbers are 8, 9 and 10. Since 2001, only 51 playoff games have gone over 12 penalties (compared to 109 that have fallen below 13). In 2015, only three of 10 playoffs games went over 12 penalties, which equates to far odds of -213. In games in which referee Clete Blakeman has presided, the average called penalties was 11.8 -- below this posted total even before we take into account the magnitude of this game. Thus, the case is very strong for the number of called penalties in this game failing to reach 13. Take the under on this prop.
The play: Under
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6.5 MINUTES OF THE GAME?
**(Includes safety)
YES +120
NO -140
Tuley: I don't often lay extra juice, but this does tie in with my expectation of a low-scoring first half. Hopefully, the offenses start conservatively and we get a couple of three-and-outs.
The play: No -140
TOTAL POINTS BY: PANTHERS
OVER 25.5 -110
UNDER 25.5 -110
Tuley: I certainly need the Denver team to step up, but with my lean on the under, I'm projecting the Panthers to score between 20 and 24 points. This seems more likely to me than a very good Broncos D allowing 27 or more.
The play: Under 25.5
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.5 -200
UNDER 13.5 +175
Tuley: Again, the key to a lot of my bets is the Panthers not jumping out to a huge early lead, but this one requires the game to stay relatively close throughout. And if we can keep Carolina under 25.5 points, that makes this bet more likely to cash.
The play: Under 13.5
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: CAM NEWTON (CAR)
**(If no Rushing Attempt -- Under is the winner)
OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110
Tuley: I also considered under 12.5 for Newton's longest run, but while I think he could get one longer run than that, I believe the Broncos defense and its athletic linebackers will be able to contain him overall to keep him under this number.
The play: Under 41.5
Lottery tickets
Will there be a missed extra point? (Yes +300, No -360)
Parolin: One solid way to find value in these props is by looking for overreaction potential based on recent history. It doesn't get much more recent than the AFC Championship Game, when Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowskimissed his first extra point attempt of the season. Graham Gano was not as reliable as Gostkowski, but was 65-for-68 converting extra points including the playoffs. Gano hadn't missed in the last six games, and hit all his extra points in 15 of his 18 games played this year. Brandon McManus was 37-of-38 this season on extra points including the playoffs. Between the two of them, that's a missed extra point in four of the 18 games they played (22 percent of games).
We started assuming value would be found here due to recency bias, but that's almost dead on the +300/-360 split. Now consider the added pressure of the Super Bowl in conjunction with an untested new surface to solve the well-publicized field problems at Levi's Stadium -- it's not unreasonable to think these factors could push a kick wide.
The play: Yes (+300)
Sharp: This prop isn't for everyone, and it's not one to go heavy on if you don't want your heart pumping after every touchdown. These two kickers have combined to go 102-of-106 on extra point attempts this year (96 percent), and at -380, it is implying the odds to beat are 78 percent. Even if this was -500, that implies you need to beat 83 percent. The "yes" on this bet is +300, meaning it needs to happen 25 percent of the time to win. Even if there are five TDs with extra point attempts, you need one of them to miss (20 percent) -- and these guys missed only 3.8 percent this year. There is more pressure in the Super Bowl, but this prop is priced quite poorly in my opinion.
The play: No -360
Will Ted Ginn Jr. have a rushing attempt? (Yes +280, No -340)
Parolin: Ginn had six rushes this season, including two in a game against theRedskins way back in November. So why is he a worthy lotto ticket on Sunday?T.J. Ward, Darian Stewart and Harris have all battled injuries affecting either mobility or tackling, and an end-around to make the Broncos secondary tackle an explosive player makes sense.
Teams have tried that against the banged-up Broncos defense in creative ways down the stretch -- the Bengals used Mohamed Sanu on two rushes (including a touchdown) in Week 16, San Diego's Javontee Herndon had one in Week 17 and Pittsburgh's Martavis Bryant had two (including a 40-yarder) in the divisional round. Ginn fits the profile of the receiver who would be given a chance on Sunday.
The play: Yes (+280)
Sharp: At first blush, this prop looks priced appropriately, as +280 odds imply about a 26 percent likelihood. Ginn has recorded at least one rushing attempt in five of his 17 games, or 29 percent. However, a quick look at the games when Ginn rushed the ball tells us that the Panthers like to run him more to keep the edge rushers honest. And they gave him a carry in each of their playoff games so far.
Denver blitzes at the fourth-highest rate of any team in the NFL and their edge rushers are quite active. If the edge rushers crash down on the read-option too much, a reverse to Ginn at least once will create a big play for Carolina, or at a minimum, could keep the defense honest. I think it's far more likely in this particular game that Ginn gets one carry about 50 percent of the time, which means +100 odds; at +280, it's a definite buy.
Will Jonathan Stewart score a first-half TD? (Yes +330, No -400)
Parolin: This seems a little steep toward no. Stewart had seven first-half touchdowns in 15 games this season (including playoffs), though he scored twice against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. That left him with first-half scores in six of 15 games, but all six of Stewart's games with first-half touchdowns came since Week 8 (his last nine games).
Since Week 8 and including the playoffs, the Panthers have 93 more first-half points than any team in the league. They're averaging 21.1 points per game before halftime in that span, almost six points ahead of the next-closest team. There's value in "yes" here.
The play: Yes
Other
Tuley: In last year's Super Bowl Betting Guide, I had the biggest score (and guaranteed a winning day by halftime) with a bet known as "Double Result" in which you try to pick the winner of the first half parlayed to the game winner. However, I opted to bet the first-half tie to both teams winning (both bets were listed at 15-1); the reason I loved the bet is that I was basically getting 7-1 on a pick 'em game to be tied at halftime! I've already fired again on this bet.
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| FIRST HALF WINNER | GAME WINNER | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| TIE | PANTHERS | 8/1 |
| TIE | BRONCOS | 15/1 |
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</article>It's not as ideal as last year's pick 'em scenario with Carolina favored by six points (and a three-point first-half favorite), but I also believe it's going to be a tighter game and lower-scoring than expected with Denver and Carolina's elite defenses. As long as the Broncos can avoid getting run over early like we saw the Panthers do to both the Seahawks and Cardinals, I think we'll see a relatively uneventful first half in which we just need the teams to trade a score or two to get us to our halftime tie: a 10-10 score seems reasonable. If we get the tie, our overall bet (since we will lose one of the wagers) will net 7-2 odds if Carolina wins the game and 7-1 if Denver wins.
WILL THE GAME BE TIED AFTER 0-0?
**Score is counted after the completion of extra point or two-point conversion
YES +110
NO -130
Tuley: This coincides in with my belief that you should bet the way you think the game will turn out. Since I expect a close game, this prop pays us off at plus money if the game is tied later on in the game (and unlike my previous bet, it doesn't have to be at exactly halftime).
The play: Yes +110
