Hypothetical - Assuming Carolina wins, what % chance would you say Cam wins SUPERBOWL MVP?

HarryCaray · Feb 5, 2016

Trying to settle an argument about this line:

Cam to win MVP -140
Cam NOT to win MVP +100

I say that the yes is a pretty good bet if you like Carolina (which btw I don't) cause you're basically getting the Carolina ML at -140. There is a 90% chance that he would win the MVP if they were to win.

Other dude says that Cam would only win about 66% of the time if Carolina wins.

I think he's a dumbass. What do you think?

wilbur · Feb 5, 2016

Cam wins either way.
Win or lose this game.
BTW, they better win

HarryCaray · Feb 5, 2016

To clarify I am referring to SUPER BOWL MVP only

JustinCruise · Feb 5, 2016

50-50

Good chance a defensive player gets it

wilbur · Feb 5, 2016

HarryCaray said:
To clarify I am referring to SUPER BOWL MVP only

I thought it was regular season,sorry

C.P. · Feb 5, 2016

I voted for NES....haha...

but..CAM 90%

Bourn · Feb 5, 2016

If Carolina wins there's a 100% chance Cam will be MVP. Your friend is a dumbass.

wilbur · Feb 5, 2016

C.P. said:
I voted for NES....haha...

but..CAM 90%

I voted for NES, too.
Must be an Illinois thing

PatsFan1283 · Feb 5, 2016

He is wrong but it doesn't necessarily mean Cam -140 to win MVP is a good bet.

-140 = 58.8% Cam wins MVP

Panthers ML (Varies by place but we'll call it -200) = 66.67%

So if the teams play 1k times Cam will win MVP 588 times out of 667 times for 87% according to the line. Pretty much in line with 90%.

So thinking Cam would win MVP 90% of the time really isn't a huge edge. I think he is probably around 80% personally but 60 is way off.

This is obviously assuming he will not be winning MVP in a loss.

HarryCaray · Feb 5, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
He is wrong but it doesn't necessarily mean Cam -140 to win MVP is a good bet.

-140 = 58.8% Cam wins MVP

Panthers ML (Varies by place but we'll call it -200) = 66.67%

So if the teams play 1k times Cam will win MVP 588 times out of 667 times for 87% according to the line. Pretty much in line with 90%.

So thinking Cam would win MVP 90% of the time really isn't a huge edge. I think he is probably around 80% personally but 60 is way off.

This is obviously assuming he will not be winning MVP in a loss.

Yeah I kinda phrased it wrong, I don't think the -140 a great bet - it is a correct line. He thinks the +100 was a great bet. I will tell him JC agrees with him, that's about the best endorsement I could have.

RenoChazz · Feb 5, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
He is wrong but it doesn't necessarily mean Cam -140 to win MVP is a good bet.

-140 = 58.8% Cam wins MVP

Panthers ML (Varies by place but we'll call it -200) = 66.67%

So if the teams play 1k times Cam will win MVP 588 times out of 667 times for 87% according to the line. Pretty much in line with 90%.

So thinking Cam would win MVP 90% of the time really isn't a huge edge. I think he is probably around 80% personally but 60 is way off.

This is obviously assuming he will not be winning MVP in a loss.

Makes one think that the -200 line is a bad line.

RenoChazz · Feb 5, 2016

I'm the lone 75-89%?

PatsFan1283 · Feb 5, 2016

Friend is probably Defying.

Doubt he thinks Cam can top 100 yards vs the Broncos D.

JustinCruise · Feb 5, 2016

Luke could easily get a couple pick 6

PatsFan1283 · Feb 5, 2016

Talib at 100-1 is solid. Has a lot of pick 6s in his career.

If Denver wins it will likely be a lower scoring game.

Defying · Feb 5, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
Friend is probably Defying.

Doubt he thinks Cam can top 100 yards vs the Broncos D.

you know I'm a Panthers fan right?

HarryCaray · Feb 5, 2016

JustinCruise said:
Luke could easily get a couple pick 6

Take a big ole gulp of that kool aid.

You're the reason the "will Luke have a pick 6 - NO" is only -1200. Most out of whack line on the board.

Defying · Feb 5, 2016

JustinCruise said:
Luke could easily get a couple pick 6

Ill give you Max of whatever you want at Luke Kuechly +230 has an INT

HarryCaray · Feb 5, 2016

wilbur said:
I thought it was regular season,sorry

If I saw Cam to win regular season MVP at -140 somewhere I'd be taking out a second mortgage.

JustinCruise · Feb 5, 2016

HarryCaray said:
Take a big ole gulp of that kool aid.

You're the reason the "will Luke have a pick 6 - NO" is only -1200. Most out of whack line on the board.

I wouldn't bet it

I'm just explaining why I said cam is only 50-50 to win mvp

It could easily be a defensive player in what could be a low scoring game

Hypothetical - Assuming Carolina wins, what % chance would you say Cam wins SUPERBOWL MVP?

Chance Cam wins MVP if CAR wins the SB

50-59%

60-74%

75-89%

90%+

Shoot NES in the head

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