Super Bowl 50 Betting Nuggets

Super Bowl 50 betting nuggets


David PurdumESPN Staff Writer




Chalk points are quick-hitting betting nuggets, meant to both inform casual fans and assist bettors.

• The Super Bowl line opened as low as the Carolina Panthers minus-3.5 and grew to as high as minus-6 late last week.
• On Wednesday, a rush of Denver Broncos money poured in on the Broncos, reportedly from sophisticated players. "We didn't take the giant bets [on the Broncos] that I've heard about," Art Manteris, vice president of Station Casinos' sportsbooks, said Thursday night. "But we took plenty of $10,000 and $20,000 bets from some guys we knew and some guys we didn't. We're still going to need the Broncos for a big decision."
• The average size of bets on the Super Bowl point spread at William Hill is $263 for the Panthers and $90 on the Broncos.
  
  
  • "Up until late Wednesday afternoon, everything we've taken had been on the Panthers. But the bets we started taking [on Denver] Wednesday were much larger than any of the other bets," Steve Mikkelson, sports book director at the Atlantis Casino in Reno, said.
  • As of 3 p.m. PT Thursday, 91 percent of the money wagered on the Super Bowl point spread at William Hill's Nevada sportsbook was on the Panthers.
  • As of Friday morning, twice as much money had been bet on the Panthers than the Broncos on the spread at MGM sportsbooks. "We're in a good spot right now," said Jay Rood, MGM vice president of race and sports. While the trend for the public is the over, some sharps have been pushing the other side. "We had a guy come in Thursday night and bet us pretty good on the under," Rood said.
  • A consultant used by some Nevada sportsbooks made the line Carolina minus-4, 44.5.
  • Consensus belief among Las Vegas bookmakers: Denver and the under are the sharp sides.
  • On average, the sharp side wins roughly 47 to 53 percent of the time.
  • On Monday, 86 percent of the money wagered on the Super Bowl point spread at sportsbook operator CG Technology was on the Panthers. On Wednesday afternoon, 59 percent of the money was on the Panthers.
  • As of 11:30 p.m. PT Thursday, five times as much money had been bet on the over compared to the under at the Westgate SuperBook.
  • You can bet on the Broncos or Panthers to score exactly one point at 9,999-1 odds at William Hill. As of Thursday evening, there had been one $5 bet on the Panthers to score exactly one point and one $5 bet on the Broncos to score exactly one point.
  • Prop at CG Technology: The over/under for Peyton Manning pass attempts in the 2016 NFL regular season is .5. The over pays +400 and the under -600.
  • The over/under on how long it will take Lady Gaga to sing the national anthem is set at 2:20 at offshore sportsbook Bovada; 60 percent of the money is on the under.
  • Orange is the favorite in offshore sportsbook Bovada's "What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?" Thirty-one percent of the money is on orange, followed closely by blue.
  • In the history of the Super Bowl coin flip, there have been 24 heads and 25 tails.
  • For every one parlay with Denver and the under, there are five Carolina and the over at The Stratosphere's sportsbooks, according to race and sports director Ed Malinowski.
  • The alternate Super Bowl line, Denver plus-7.5 (-140), had attracted the most sharp action at CG Technology, according to vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal. The juice to take the Broncos plus-7.5 has grown all the way to -155, as of Thursday.
  • The Panthers are 48-34 against the spread in Cam Newton's starts, including a 27-18 ATS record as a starter.
  • Manning is 140-122-3 ATS as an NFL starter. He is 20-11 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Denver coach Gary Kubiak is 68-72 ATS, including a 34-31 ATS record as an underdog.
  • Carolina coach Ron Rivera is 49-35 ATS, including a 27-19 ATS record as a favorite.
  • Rivera's Panthers beat Kubiak's Texans 28-13 in 2011, covering as 4.5-point underdogs in the only meeting between the two coaches.
  • Super Bowl favorites are 32-17 straight-up.
  • Super Bowl favorites are 24-23-2 ATS.
  • There have been 24 overs, 23 unders and one push in Super Bowl history. (There was no over/under total on Super Bowl I).
  • The favored team went 168-98 straight-up this NFL season.
  • Underdogs went 138-118 ATS this season.
  • According to British sports betting exchange Matchbook.com, Brits bet more on the NFL than the Premier League in 2015 -- a 50 percent increase from last season.
  • At William Hill's UK book, 52 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the money is on the Panthers.
  • As of Friday, 56 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money was on the Panthers at UK sportsbook Ladbrokes.
  • The best Super Bowl bet of them all: Vegas. Since 1991, the first year Nevada Gaming Control began tracking betting on the Super Bowl, Nevada's regulated sportsbooks have posted a profit in 24 of the past 26 Super Bowls.
  • Sportsbook directors estimate that 80-90 percent of the money wagered on the Super Bowl takes place on Saturday and Sunday.
  • 42 of 50 ESPN staffers picked Carolina to win. Here's what some Vegas notables and celebrities thought.
  • Cam Newton is around a -160 favorite to be named Super Bowl MVP. Forty-percent of the money wagered on the Super Bowl MVP odds at William Hill was on Newton, as of Thursday evening.
  • The Panthers are -215 to win the Super Bowl straight-up.
  • A quarterback has been the Super Bowl MVP 27 times, including five of the past six years.
  • "Yes" on "Will there be a successful two-point conversion?" is the most popular prop bet at William Hill.
  • The Panthers led the NFL in first-half scoring, averaging 17.8 points. Denver averaged 10.9 points in the first half.
  • Carolina is a three-point favorite in the first half.

Hache Man said:

• • On average, the sharp side wins roughly 47 to 53 percent of the time.

Click to expand...

I'd hardly call this one a nugget. I guess it's just saying the sharp side isn't so sharp.

Favorites are 24-23-2. Over/under is 24-23-1. I guess Vegas has this Super Bowl thing down.

Hache Man said:

You can bet on the Broncos or Panthers to score exactly one point at 9,999-1 odds at William Hill. As of Thursday evening, there had been one $5 bet on the Panthers to score exactly one point and one $5 bet on the Broncos to score exactly one point.

Click to expand...

WTF? Do they make a habit of posting outcomes that are literally impossible?

Sorry HC but you are flat out wrong on this one.

HarryCaray said:

WTF? Do they make a habit of posting outcomes that are literally impossible?

Click to expand...

A returned extra pt try for a "td" = 1 pt right? I mean I guess its a get "rich" quick scheme. heh


-murph

Returned extra point would be 2 points

Murphy8276 said:

A returned extra pt try for a "td" = 1 pt right? I mean I guess its a get "rich" quick scheme. heh


-murph

Click to expand...

HarryCaray said:

WTF? Do they make a habit of posting outcomes that are literally impossible?

Click to expand...

Hamilbet said:

Sorry HC but you are flat out wrong on this one.

Click to expand...

mrwho said:

Returned extra point would be 2 points

Click to expand...

You are correct brother and nice to see ya man. I had to google it now because I know it was "possible" just not "plausible"

A fumbled return for a td (after an extra point) out of the back of the endzone, or recovered by the kicking team is 1 point for the defense. Crazy, yes, but true.

"
<header id="yui_3_18_1_1_1454862120195_2203" class="header"> Strange but true: NFL team could, in theory, score one-point safety

</header> <cite class="byline vcard top-line"> By Eric Edholm <abbr>September 11, 2015 9:47 AM</abbr> </cite> Shutdown Corner


Time to review the league's new extra-point rules, shall we?
Yes, the single-point after-touchdown try is now longer; you likely have heard by now that it's a 33-yard attempt to turn six points into seven with a made kick.
But did you know a team could score a one-point safety for the first time in league history?
[]
The rule changes that allow for the defensive team to try to prevent an extra point/two-point try also allow a two-point safety the other way. Example: After a TD, the Seahawks go for two, Russell Wilson tries to throw an out route to Jimmy Graham, the ball is intercepted by Alec Ogletree and run back 98 yards. Not only do the Seahawks fail on the conversion but — like the rule the NCAA has had for years — the Rams would be awarded two points, for a four-point swing.
But imagine this scenario ...
As noted by the New York Times, there's a chance for a 1-point safety, too. Say the Seahawks instead go for the extra-point try and it's blocked. The ball caroms backward and is pinballed down the field toward the opposite end zone. A defender — Ogletree, let's say — picks it up and runs toward his end zone but fumbles before he reaches paydirt, and the ball either is recovered by a Seahawk or is fumbled out of the end zone.
Boom! One point for the Rams. Jeff Fisher's ears just perked up.
Is it likely? No. In fact, the one-pointer might be the rarest play in football. But it has happened.


-murph

Saints block extra point, score first defensive 2-point conversion in NFL history

Considering the safety to open the game in the first play 2 years ago with Manning involved mind you, I guess nothing is impossible. :smoker2:


-murph

Murphy8276 said:

A returned extra pt try for a "td" = 1 pt right? I mean I guess its a get "rich" quick scheme. heh


-murph

Click to expand...

mrwho said:

Returned extra point would be 2 points

Click to expand...

That's what I thought, I was positive it was 2 points. Someone could've taken some money off me on that wager.

Well it's still the dumbest bet in history, but at least it is technically possible.

Murphy8276 said:

Considering the safety to open the game in the first play 2 years ago with Manning involved mind you, I guess nothing is impossible. :smoker2:


-murph

Click to expand...

I remember this bc...it fucked up all my pools...ha

Murphy8276 said:

As noted by the New York Times, there's a chance for a 1-point safety, too. Say the Seahawks instead go for the extra-point try and it's blocked. The ball caroms backward and is pinballed down the field toward the opposite end zone. A defender — Ogletree, let's say — picks it up and runs toward his end zone but fumbles before he reaches paydirt, and the ball either is recovered by a Seahawk or is fumbled out of the end zone.
Boom! One point for the Rams. Jeff Fisher's ears just perked up.

Click to expand...

Hahahaha, what an obscure rule.