#722 Buffalo -2 1/2 -110
Toledo at 14-9 (5-5) and 11-9 ats scoring 78.9 ppg giving up 71.3 ppg for a diff of 7.6
Buff at 14-9 (7-3) and 11-8-2 ats scoring 76.5 ppg giving up 73.8 ppg for a diff of 2.7
Diff of 5, I give Buff 3-4 at home, Buff a tough place to play because of travel in this conf, I like the spread. Toledo is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at Buff. But yet, Buff is 7-2 straight up last 9 in this series. Most of Toledo's ats success at Buff ae because the line has always been very high, 5, 4, 19, 10, 15, and now this game at -2 1/2.
Buff is playing very well right now coming off a 10 point win over E. Mich and riding a 4 game winning streak and are 6-1 last 7 games. (like it)
Buff just beat Toledo back on Jan 30 73-68 at Toledo. Buff forced 17 to's that game. (like it)
There is no let up in play when Buff goes to the bench. The bench average (37.8 %) of the points. (got to like it)
Buff: fta: 608 ftm: 431 70.9% I like that they get to the line more than Toledo does
Tole: fta: 487 ftm: 357 73.3%
Toledo playing well now to winning two straight by 27 and 15 over W Mich and Kent since their last loss which of course was against Buff. (revenge) maybe, if they get hot from 3 pt land they are very tough to beat.
Buff lead the conf in off rebs at 12.7a game and 2nd in 3 pt defense at 32.4%. In order to win this game the have to get out of the shooters and contest.
Anyway, playing Buff at home and see how it goes.
#732 E. Michigan -1 -110
C. Mich at 13-10 (6-4) and 7-7-2 ats scoring 77.5 ppg giving up 72.6 ppg for a dif of 4.9
E. Mich at 11-12 (3-7) and 6-10 ats scoing 78.9 ppg giving up 74.6 ppg for a diff of 4.3
I feel like I have a little value on this one. I have the game lined at E. Mich -3. The two team have definitely been going in the opposite directions. E. Mich has lost 6 out of their last 7 games and C. Mich has won 4 out of their last 5 games. Explains the line being what it is in this game. Even though E. Mich won at C. Mich, (99-80) it took a unbelievable shooting performance. E. Mich shot 66% from the field including 13 of 20 from 3 pt land. Great shooting but I do question the def which coach explained he wanted to stop the inside game. You see E. Mich has a really good post player, but they can also get hot from the perimeter if you let them wide open. C. M playing much better now anyway and have some revenge on their minds. They are tied for first in their division with Ball St who they have on deck this Sat.
Why do I like the home team in this one?
Starting with the trends:
Central Michigan is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan: (rival game where they both usually fair much better at home)
Central Michigan is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road (they may win the game, but they do struggle away from home)
Eastern Michigan is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games (don't like it one bit)
Eastern Michigan is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home (glad they are home)
Eastern Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Central Michigan (I guess they aren't as bad as the used to be)
E. Mich are very aggressive on Def. They average 10 steals a game (2nd in the nation) and force 17 to's a game. (I really like it)
E Mich get to the ft line at a really good rate. They lead the conf getting to the line and are 13th in the nation getting to the line.
E. Mich: FTA: 617 FTM: 449 shooting 72.8% They have almost made more ft's than C.M has attempted. (close games usually come down to the ft line)
C. Mich: FTA: 464 FTM: 335 shooting 72.2% when you launch 3's it's hard to get the line
Going to ride the home team and hope they can bust out of their losing streak.
#736 Tenn -10 1/2 -110
Auburn at 9-13 (3-7) and 9-12 ats scoring 73.3 ppg giving up 77.6 ppg for a diff of -4.3
Tenn at 11-12 (4-6) and 11-10-1 ats scoring 77.3 ppg giving up 76.3 ppg for a diff of 1.0
Diff is 5, Tenn at home 3-4, could be a point lower and I'd like it for a (2). The line is high because Auburn is at it again. Pearl is ticked, he has suspended leading scorer Cantry (18.3 ppg) indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team. He scored 20 points in the first meeting between these two teams at Auburn in a 83-77 win. That's huge losing him and heading into Tenn where they have owned you and have revenge on their minds. In that first game at Auburn, the Vols were 3-28 (10.7%) from 3 pt land. I guess they were so far behind that they were trying to catch up or they shot so many 3's and got way behind. Tenn did out rebound Auburn by 11 ib the game. Whatever, doesn't matter now because that was way back on Jan 2. I really think this one could get ugly for Auburn and I hope it does.
Auburn is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee (the main reason why I bet this game)
Only 1 time in the last 10 games the spread in this game has been over 10 1/2 points and Tenn won that game by 26. (I'll take 11 and be happy)
Tenn leads in all stats except made 3 pointers.
Tenn shooting 74.7 from the ft line. (like it a lot)
Aub shooting 63.7 from the ft line.
Tenn is 47-7 at home in this series.
Could go on and on but you know who I bet on.
#740 Ohio St -5 1/2 -110
Northwestern at 16-8 (4-7) and 9-10-2 ats scoring 73.1 ppg giving up 66.5 ppg for a diff of 6.6
Ohio St at 14-10 (6-5) and 12-12 ats scoring 70.6 ppg giving up 66.3 ppg for a diff of 4.3
Diff of 2, Ohio St worth 4 at home, line could be -2-3. That would be to easy. NW beat up on some cupcakes as they almost always do in non conf play or the diff would be much lower. Point is a like the line and think it's very attainable for Ohio St at home. They own NW in this series. They have won 11 straight and 22 out of the last 23 in this series. Amazingly, they have won 30 straight in this series at home.
Ohio St won the first meeting this year at NW 65-56.
Ohio St are 10-0 and 6-4 ats last 10 in this series with a average score of 70.5 to 59.6. NW was at -2 in their game at home. Everyone had written Ohio St off. Almost all of the college basketball teams this season could have been written off with the way the season has been going. Ohio St has a very young team. That young team has grown up and is playing ball the way coach Matta wants them to play. He is to good of a coach not to have his team improve as the year goes on.
Not going to list a ton of stuff about this game. It will come down to tempo. NW always tries to shorten the game and fires up a lot of 3's. If Ohio St contests and gets out and gets some transition going they should cover. Stranger things have happened. I'm a Buckeye fan tonight.
#757 New Mexico -2 1/2 -110
New Mexico at 14-9 (7-3) and 12-8 ats scoring 78.0 ppg giving up 72.4 ppg for a diff of 5.6
Utah St at 11-11 (3-8) and 7-12 ats scoring 71.9 ppg giving up 71.6 ppg for a diff of 0.3
Diff of 5, Uth St at 3-4 at home, closer to 3 this year, line is where it needs to be considering the current seasons of these two teams. I really like NM in this one. The only thing stopping it from being a (2) for me is the heart breaking loss that NW are coming off of at San Diego St in double over time. From what I read NW up 66-61 with around 15 secs left in reg and SDS hits a lay up to cut it to 3 and NW has a violation on the inbounds pass that led to SDS drilling a 3 to pout the game in ot to begin with. I guess after watching the tape the refs made the wrong call and it wasn't a violation as the player had one foot down and established when he caught the ball which is legal. Anyway, doesn't matter now, game over and lost and that's life.
What a stretch NW just went through, beating Boise at Boise, then beating UNLV, and the DOT loss at SDS, now they are at Logan, Utah. Where they are 2-10. That's why only a (1) for me.
NW have won the last two games at Utah St for what it's worth, means a lot to me, as current coach Craig Neal is 2-0 and the only NM coach in history to win at Logan. hopefully he knows what he's doing. I just think that this Utah St team is down and have not been the same since Collette left the school.
NM won the first game at home back on Jan 9 by a score 77-59. They led at the half 43-18. I'm sure the Utah St coach along with the team wants to remedy that. I just don't see how they are going to stop it.
They have lost their Karma at home and are only 3-6 ats at home.
Check out this from the ft line:
NM: FTA: 557 FTM: 410 shooting at 73.6% NM have made 17 more ft;s than Utah St have even attempted!!! (love it)
Ut S: FTA: 393 FTM: 267 shooting at 67.9% Utah St just doesn't get to the ft line much. NM has made 143 more free points than Utah ST.
If you do the math and divide by the number of games played, 23 for NM and 22 for Utah St: this is what I come up with per game average fta and ftm:
NM: FTA: 24.2 FTM: 17.8
Uta: FTA: 17.8 FTM: 12.1
I like the numbers. Of course things don't always play out that way. I always try to find any edge possible and this is a big one imo.
Good luck everyone
