[h=1]How to bet the Daytona 500[/h]PJ WalshESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and March Madness still weeks away, the end of February is often seen as a dead period in the sports calendar. However, according to a recent article from BettingTalk.com, NASCAR's Daytona 500 represents the biggest event, in terms of betting action, between Super Bowl and Selection Sunday.
While the Daytona 500 can provide incredible excitement with big wrecks, close racing and photo finishes, that intensity also translates to unpredictable racing. Because NASCAR mandates the use of restrictor plates at Daytona to keep speeds at an acceptable level, cars don't have the horsepower to pull away from each other, resulting in large packs of cars racing dangerously close together for 500 miles.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Pack racing ensures that the The Big One is always looming, waiting for one slip up, mechanical failure or ill-conceived maneuver from NASCAR's Danica Patrick/Ricky Stenhouse power couple to gobble up a large portion of the field. While big wrecks can be exciting for fans (as long as all drivers can walk away), they make accurately projecting race performance very difficult, even for the most seasoned NASCAR bettor.
Experienced bettors begrudgingly accept restrictor-plate racing for what it is and adjust by risking less during the Daytona 500 than at more predictable racetracks. However, even with bankroll preservation in mind, an influx of public money and betting market overreactions do provide opportunities to pick off soft lines for The Great American Race.
To help bettors prepare for the Daytona 500, I've outlined a couple of quick handicapping tips below, including two bets that offer opportunities to snag value while not overextending bankrolls.
[h=2]Starting position is overvalued at Daytona[/h]Note: Odds used in this article reflect Daytona 500 odds from 5Dimes.
Because of restrictor plates, drivers who qualify at the front of the field can't drive away from those in the back, while cars that start deep can quickly use the draft to pick their way to the front. However, casual bettors looking for action just because it's the Daytona 500 don't know this and drastically overreact to qualifying results.
To put this in perspective, 20-year-old Chase Elliott won the pole for Sunday's race and was available at +3150 to win the Daytona 500 early Monday morning. By Tuesday, Elliott's odds dropped to a ridiculous +1400 based on nothing other than his starting position. Keep in mind that Elliott is a rookie with only five career Sprint Cup races under his belt, none of which took place at restrictor-plate racetracks (Daytona and Talladega).
While Elliott is oozing with talent, has a famous racing father (Bill Elliott), and takes over the famous No. 24 car vacated by the retired Jeff Gordon, his lack of experience raises a serious red flag.
The bet: Ryan Blaney (+125) to finish ahead of Elliott
This is a complete value play based on the major overreaction to Elliott winning the pole. I know I just spewed about Elliott's lack of experience and here I am picking another rookie, Blaney, to finish ahead of him. However, while Blaney is a rookie, he is in just as good equipment as Elliott and has 18 Sprint Cup races under his belt (compared to Elliott's five) including four restrictor-plate races. Throw in the fact that Blaney finished ahead of Elliott in Thursday's first duel race and +125 is a nice value worth a play.
[h=2]Dissect the duels[/h]The duel races set the starting lineup (except for the front row, which is set by qualifying speeds) and give bettors a chance to monitor live racing that will be extremely similar to the conditions that drivers will experience during the Daytona 500.
When analyzing these races, it's important to not focus solely on finishing position, but to look for drivers who are able to slice through the field, "suck up" to cars ahead of them and make passes, especially with limited help from behind.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. could do just about anything with his race car during the first duel race, leading 43 of 60 laps en route to a dominating win. However, oddsmakers are forcing Dale Jr. backers to pay a premium of +400 at the time of publication.
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</article>While Earnhardt's win was obviously a popular one, seemingly lost in the commotion was the performance of Joe Gibbs Racing in Duel 2. JGR teammates Kyle Buschand Matt Kenseth combined to lead 58 of 60 laps, with Busch taking the checkered flag. Unfortunately, Kenseth got caught up in a wreck on the final lap (meaning he'll have to race a backup car and start at the back of the field for the Daytona 500) while Busch was able to finish the race unscathed.
Instead of paying +400 for Earnhardt Jr., I'm instead taking Busch at +1000, giving me one of the dominant cars at a much more palatable price.
Note: While 5Dimes is offering a bad price on Denny Hamlin (+750), I've seen him available at +1000 at most sportsbooks, including Westgate, which would also be a play for me at that price.
The bet: Kyle Busch to win (+1000)
To summarize, after analyzing Thursday's duel races and taking advantage of betting market overreactions, the following betting card is offering value for the Daytona 500:
ESPN INSIDER
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and March Madness still weeks away, the end of February is often seen as a dead period in the sports calendar. However, according to a recent article from BettingTalk.com, NASCAR's Daytona 500 represents the biggest event, in terms of betting action, between Super Bowl and Selection Sunday.
While the Daytona 500 can provide incredible excitement with big wrecks, close racing and photo finishes, that intensity also translates to unpredictable racing. Because NASCAR mandates the use of restrictor plates at Daytona to keep speeds at an acceptable level, cars don't have the horsepower to pull away from each other, resulting in large packs of cars racing dangerously close together for 500 miles.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Pack racing ensures that the The Big One is always looming, waiting for one slip up, mechanical failure or ill-conceived maneuver from NASCAR's Danica Patrick/Ricky Stenhouse power couple to gobble up a large portion of the field. While big wrecks can be exciting for fans (as long as all drivers can walk away), they make accurately projecting race performance very difficult, even for the most seasoned NASCAR bettor.
Experienced bettors begrudgingly accept restrictor-plate racing for what it is and adjust by risking less during the Daytona 500 than at more predictable racetracks. However, even with bankroll preservation in mind, an influx of public money and betting market overreactions do provide opportunities to pick off soft lines for The Great American Race.
To help bettors prepare for the Daytona 500, I've outlined a couple of quick handicapping tips below, including two bets that offer opportunities to snag value while not overextending bankrolls.
[h=2]Starting position is overvalued at Daytona[/h]Note: Odds used in this article reflect Daytona 500 odds from 5Dimes.
Because of restrictor plates, drivers who qualify at the front of the field can't drive away from those in the back, while cars that start deep can quickly use the draft to pick their way to the front. However, casual bettors looking for action just because it's the Daytona 500 don't know this and drastically overreact to qualifying results.
To put this in perspective, 20-year-old Chase Elliott won the pole for Sunday's race and was available at +3150 to win the Daytona 500 early Monday morning. By Tuesday, Elliott's odds dropped to a ridiculous +1400 based on nothing other than his starting position. Keep in mind that Elliott is a rookie with only five career Sprint Cup races under his belt, none of which took place at restrictor-plate racetracks (Daytona and Talladega).
While Elliott is oozing with talent, has a famous racing father (Bill Elliott), and takes over the famous No. 24 car vacated by the retired Jeff Gordon, his lack of experience raises a serious red flag.
The bet: Ryan Blaney (+125) to finish ahead of Elliott
This is a complete value play based on the major overreaction to Elliott winning the pole. I know I just spewed about Elliott's lack of experience and here I am picking another rookie, Blaney, to finish ahead of him. However, while Blaney is a rookie, he is in just as good equipment as Elliott and has 18 Sprint Cup races under his belt (compared to Elliott's five) including four restrictor-plate races. Throw in the fact that Blaney finished ahead of Elliott in Thursday's first duel race and +125 is a nice value worth a play.
[h=2]Dissect the duels[/h]The duel races set the starting lineup (except for the front row, which is set by qualifying speeds) and give bettors a chance to monitor live racing that will be extremely similar to the conditions that drivers will experience during the Daytona 500.
When analyzing these races, it's important to not focus solely on finishing position, but to look for drivers who are able to slice through the field, "suck up" to cars ahead of them and make passes, especially with limited help from behind.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. could do just about anything with his race car during the first duel race, leading 43 of 60 laps en route to a dominating win. However, oddsmakers are forcing Dale Jr. backers to pay a premium of +400 at the time of publication.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>While Earnhardt's win was obviously a popular one, seemingly lost in the commotion was the performance of Joe Gibbs Racing in Duel 2. JGR teammates Kyle Buschand Matt Kenseth combined to lead 58 of 60 laps, with Busch taking the checkered flag. Unfortunately, Kenseth got caught up in a wreck on the final lap (meaning he'll have to race a backup car and start at the back of the field for the Daytona 500) while Busch was able to finish the race unscathed.
Instead of paying +400 for Earnhardt Jr., I'm instead taking Busch at +1000, giving me one of the dominant cars at a much more palatable price.
Note: While 5Dimes is offering a bad price on Denny Hamlin (+750), I've seen him available at +1000 at most sportsbooks, including Westgate, which would also be a play for me at that price.
The bet: Kyle Busch to win (+1000)
To summarize, after analyzing Thursday's duel races and taking advantage of betting market overreactions, the following betting card is offering value for the Daytona 500:
- Ryan Blaney (+125) vs. Chase Elliott
- Kyle Busch to win (+1000)
