Hillary Clinton will find it harder to crush Donald Trump than she thinks

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton will find it harder to crush Donald Trump than she thinks

The more the elite in politics and the media attack him – however merited – the higher Trump’s ratings go

By Simon Heffer

12:00PM GMT 05 Mar 2016

simon heffer biography

Simon Heffer was born in 1960 and educated at King Edward VI's School, Chelmsford, and Corpus Christi College, Cambridge, where he read English and subsequently took a PhD in modern history.
He joined The Daily Telegraph as a leader writer in 1986 and later held the posts of chief leader writer, political correspondent, parliamentary sketchwriter, comment editor and deputy editor.

As Associate Editor he wrote a twice-weekly column for the Daily and a cultural column for the Sunday Telegraph. He won the Charles Douglas-Home Prize in 1994. He has written biographies of Thomas Carlyle, Enoch Powell and Ralph Vaughan Williams, a political biography of King Edward VII and the polemic Nor Shall My Sword: The Reinvention of England, about England's relations with Scotland
He left the company in 2011.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

In America last week I sought to work out who hates Donald Trump more: Democrats or Republicans. The answer, I soon realised, was Republicans; his own party is in a seething panic about what appears to be the probability of his becoming their presidential candidate.

A group of them, whose spokesman is a failed presidential candidate from the last two elections, Mitt Romney, are trying to rally support and raise money to stop him. The problem is that they don’t have a plan, and they fail to see what their party is now really like. They also fail to see what an unhappy, troubled, angry country America now is, and how Americans feel their mainstream politicians have not responded to their fears.

By March 15 there will have been eight more Republican primaries, and Trump leads in the polls in almost all of them – including Florida, where he is 20 points ahead of Marco Rubio, whose home state it is. In 10 days, any doubt about Mr Trump’s candidacy could well be eliminated, as he stays on course to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

There is talk – coming from Mr Romney’s camp – of a “brokered convention” – an attempt to re-open the selection process at Cleveland in July when the formal nomination is made. And although the three other candidates in [FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]last Thursday’s debate all promised to support him if he won the nomination[/FONT], there is also talk of a “third party” of moderate Republicans taking Mr Trump on. If the Republican party wants to commit suicide, that would be an ideal way to it.

In the primaries on Super Tuesday there were record turnouts of Republican voters. In Virginia, where Mr Trump beat Mr Rubio, who was thought to be the favourite, the turnout was 110 per cent up on 2012. The Republican party has changed, and its Brahmin leaders simply don’t get it. Nor do they see that trying to subvert its internal democracy will lead to a political disaster possibly worse than any Mr Trump might cause.

Karl Rove, whose record working for George W Bush should make him not so much circumspect as silent, bellyaches on the airwaves about the Trump nightmare, failing, like Mr Romney, to grasp that people have fundamentally rejected the politics that lost the Republicans the last two elections. Across the United States, millions who never vote are turning out to vote Trump. He has changed the Republican party.

A distinguished professor at an Ivy League university told me last week that Mr Trump’s impetus comes from the fact that real wages for the average American have not risen since the mid-Seventies. President after president has promised to change this, but failed. Some have elevated America’s standing in the world – Ronald Reagan remains beloved of both Republicans and Democrats for that reason – but economic nirvana remains elusive. Mr Trump’s constituency of predominantly white working-class and lower-middle class voters have had enough, and want a different leadership.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

Mr Trump endures almost universal abuse and ridicule on television and in most of the press. His family’s original name – Drumpf – has become a national joke. Endless clips are broadcast of him contradicting himself. He is branded an “extremist” and a “loose cannon”. Mr Romney – who begged for Mr Trump’s endorsement in 2012 – called him “a phoney, a fraud” who would prompt a recession and endanger national security. The liberal media vilify him – the New York Daily News last Wednesday published a feature on countries where people might emigrate should “The Donald” be elected.

However, the more the elite in politics and the media attack him – however merited their attacks may be – the higher his ratings go. Groups who abjured him now embrace him. Evangelicals – a significant constituency – have pledged support, despite Mr Trump’s being a pro-abortion secularist who is on his third wife. They share his belief that the economy needs radical change, and America must be great again.

He also attracts the insult of choice from some opponents, especially in the media, that he is “racist”. His notorious Mexican wall – to keep out illegal immigrants – is their main proof. He made a hash of denouncing David Duke of the Ku Klux Klan last weekend when Duke endorsed him. The media went for the jugular; but soon some black community leaders hinted they might back Mr Trump, because many black people are among the disadvantaged he promises to help.

Trump is really a New York Democrat, which is why conservatives have lined up against him. They call him a “con man” who is “hijacking” their party. But is the Republican party really theirs any more? Or is it undergoing the sort of change the Tory party underwent in the Eighties, when Mrs Thatcher attracted vast numbers with no heritage of voting Conservative? It smells like that.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

The thought of this sends the Republican establishment into a spin: it is beyond their comprehension, and they can barely articulate it. The Republican Governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, said in bewilderment before Super Tuesday “Trump is a juggernaut that it’s hard to unravel”, minting one of the great mixed metaphors of the campaign. It mimics the disbelief expressed by Democratic party grandee Averell Harriman when Jimmy Carter was nominated in 1976: he said he couldn’t be the candidate “because I don’t know him”.

Democrats too are facing up to a Trump candidacy. They ridicule him, in the sure and certain belief he cannot beat Hillary Clinton: a prominent New York architect told me that Mr Trump and his family are “like an upmarket version of the Kardashians”. The liberal media’s tune is subtly changing. Mocking articles have evolved into ones about “how could we have gotten this so wrong?” (Answer: the media are as out of touch as the politicos who share their East Coast cocoon and who spoonfeed them.)

Now the articles are about “what happens when parties can’t derail dodgy candidates”, and are turning towards “how Hillary will see off The Donald”. On Super Tuesday, a poll claimed 49 per cent of Americans had “very negative” feelings about Mr Trump; but also that 39 per cent had “very negative” feelings about Mrs Clinton. Last Wednesday a Washington official was granted immunity from prosecution in the FBI investigation into Mrs Clinton’s use of private emails when Secretary of State; even some Democrats concede there is a chance of her being indicted before election day.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

Mrs Clinton is widely seen as “not honest”. She is also a dreadful speaker: her victory speech last Tuesday was a concatenation of clichés droned out with a mechanical lack of conviction, and culminating in the bizarre “let’s make America whole”. Mr Trump is a fine stand-up comedian. He has some of the actorish charm of Ronald Reagan, even if he lacks his political sense. It carried Reagan far, and may similarly serve Mr Trump.

According to the New York Times there was a “secret” plan in the Clinton camp to deploy President Bill Clinton to take on Mr Trump, and expose the shallowness and dishonesty of his bombast, hyperbole and insult. That would be brave, given the dirt on President Clinton, how impervious Mr Trump has proved, and how his public love him violating the Queensberry Rules. Were Mr Trump a politician there would be a real danger the Clintons could cut him off at the knees; but because he isn’t, and the American public don’t want him to be one, they may find him harder to crush than they think.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

When you ask Americans why they, or people they know, might vote for Mr Trump, they often reply: “He tells it like it is.” They also maintain that because he is so rich “nobody owns him”. They don’t care about the trade war he might provoke with China; they don’t care about the global obloquy he would attract by building his wall, or expelling Muslims (assuming he could actually do either); they don’t care that he sounds isolationist at a time when the world is an astonishingly dangerous place. And they hear that the political class elsewhere – such as in the United Kingdom – finds Mr Trump preposterous and disgusting, they don’t care about that either. They, like much of America, now look only inwards.

On the corner of West 46th Street and 6th Avenue in New York there is a debt clock, showing America’s $19 trillion debt: it changes, upwards, by $10,000 a second. President Obama has not mastered that. His place in history will not be what he would have wanted. He inherited a nation embarrassed by its conduct of foreign affairs, and bequeaths one embarrassed financially. Money is spent profligately and often corruptly. Whoever benefits, it does not appear to be the ordinary, hard-pressed American, and they are left susceptible to Trumpery.

The revolt here against the political class may only just have started. Not long ago none of us thought Mr Trump would get the nomination. We were probably wrong. Now, everybody – led by Republican grandees – thinks Mrs Clinton will obliterate him. We could be wrong again. The fight is portrayed as establishment versus anti-establishment. But it also one of reason against emotion, and it is far from clear reason will prevail.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

Is the Republican party really theirs any more? Or is it undergoing the sort of change the Tory party underwent in the Eighties, when Mrs Thatcher attracted vast numbers with no heritage of voting Conservative? It smells like that.

The liberal media’s tune is subtly changing. Mocking articles have evolved into ones about “how could we have gotten this so wrong?” (Answer: the media are as out of touch as the politicos who share their East Coast cocoon and who spoonfeed them.)

Not long ago none of us thought Mr Trump would get the nomination. We were probably wrong. Now, everybody – led by Republican grandees – thinks Mrs Clinton will obliterate him. We could be wrong again.

superbeets · Mar 5, 2016

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Dave007inVegas · Mar 9, 2016

A statistical model predicts Trump will beat either Democrat nominee.

It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

http://primarymodel.com/

vitterd · Mar 9, 2016

Dave007inVegas said:
A statistical model predicts Trump will beat either Democrat nominee.

It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

http://primarymodel.com/

How many times do you idiots have to post this dumb shit? It's like 2012 all over again.

JDeuce · Mar 9, 2016

Dave007inVegas said:
A statistical model predicts Trump will beat either Democrat nominee.

It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

http://primarymodel.com/

Turnout will be the biggest factor IMO. By far.

hillary doesn't excite the dimocrap base at all. She's a tired, screechy battle axe whom people seem to hate much more than admire.

R voters are clearly pissed off and ready to turn out en masse, and in a normal year, the R candidate would win this election by five TDs. But this isn't a normal year. Today's R's seem to be more worried about taking out other R sects. Trump supporters hate Cruz supporters + vice versa. Each side is swearing they won't offer support or vote if the other guy gets the nomination. It's like some kind of freaking ongoing gang war in South Central Los Angeles.

Maybe once they see hillary is the alternative, the losing voter base will change their tune seven months down the line. But right now, the country is as polarized as I've ever seen it. Too early to tell if the R base can get their shit together. If they do, Hillary will suffer a monumental loss.

ScottL · Mar 9, 2016

I'm worried that if they run against each other one of them will win.

Dafinch · Mar 10, 2016

vitterd said:
How many times do you idiots have to post this dumb shit? It's like 2012 all over again.

They're probably caught unaware by the sun rising every morning in the east as well, totally fucking clueless.

hno:

ointer::think2:

Hillary Clinton will find it harder to crush Donald Trump than she thinks

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