[h=1]Best NCAA tournament contrarian system bets[/h]David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Betting against the public is one of the most basic and popular methods used at Sports Insights. We've gone to tremendous lengths to prove that this system produces a positive return on investment, and each season we update our betting percentage data to find the optimal betting percentage threshold for that contrarian strategy.
There are two types of bettors: sharps and squares. Imagine the sports betting marketplace as a seesaw. If too many square bettors load up on one side (typically caused by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers need to even the weight by adjusting the line and encouraging action on their opponent. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors that are willing to take the unpopular side and go against the grain.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
A direct correlation exists between the number of bets placed and the value derived from betting against the public, but the sample size is limited during the regular season. Unfortunately, this makes many of our basic betting against the public strategies ineffective -- if two mid-majors square off, oddsmakers won't usually take enough action on either side to warrant a line move.
There are certain instances that fit the bill before the postseason, though. Let's pretend that North Carolina is a 7-point favorite against Duke and 80 percent of bettors are taking the Tar Heels. In this example, the game receives a large volume of bets, meaning oddsmakers would likely move the line to 7.5 or 8 to encourage more bettors to take Duke to mitigate their risk. In simpler terms, contrarian bettors would be able to get a free half-point or point by taking an unpopular viewpoint and backing the underdog.
Buying back on artificially inflated lines is almost always a profitable strategy, but that's particularly true during March Madness. The number of bets on each game rises dramatically compared to the regular season, which positively impacts the value of betting against the public.
We should point out that although most bettors can be classified as squares, these casual bettors don't account for a large portion of the total dollars wagered -- at least not during the regular season. The NCAA tournament is an entirely different animal, as the number of square bettors increases exponentially -- and public money has a greater impact on sportsbooks. The American Gaming Association estimates that more than $9.2 billion is illegally wagered on the tournament every year. In this way, the tourney is comparable to the NFL playoffs.
To provide some context, teams receiving less than 50 percent of the action on spread bets have gone just 18,363-18,465 (49.9 percent) in regular-season games, but they're 362-329 ATS (52.4 percent) in NCAA tournament games since the start of the 2004-05 season. When we focus on the most heavily-bet tournament games, our return on investment increases tremendously.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Spread Bet Volume On NCAA Tourney Teams Since 2004-05</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>Compare the number of bets to the daily average, and you'll see how we can pinpoint the games receiving the most public money -- and, in all likelihood, artificially inflated lines. For example, if a game has 1,500 bets and the average for that particular day for college basketball is 1,000, the value for that game would be 1.5 times the daily average.
It's still early in the week, so the numbers are subject to change before tipoff. Visit the ESPN Chalk free odds page for the latest updates.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday morning.
[h=2]NCAA tournament system matches[/h]
Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5) vs.
Wichita State Shockers(Tuesday, 9:10 p.m.)
Vanderbilt opened as a 3-point underdog, receiving just 28 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting helped move the line another .5 points in its favor. This may be an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Commodores, who lost the final two games of the season.
Yale Bulldogs (+5.5) vs.
Baylor Bears (Thursday, 2:45 p.m.)
After winning the Ivy League and earning a berth in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1962, Yale opened as a 5.5-point underdog and received just 28 percent of spread bets. In addition to their contrarian value, the Bulldogs also fit a profitable system that focuses on teams with slow paces. In what should be a low-scoring game, we expect Yale to keep things close and cover the spread.
Stony Brook Seawolves (+14.5) vs.
Kentucky Wildcats(Thursday, 9:40 p.m.)
In an article posted on our blog earlier this week, we found that Kentucky was one of the most overrated teams in the country -- which means this could be a fantastic opportunity to sell high on the Wildcats. Stony Brook opened as a 13.5-point underdog but, with 81 percent of bettors taking Kentucky, the line has ballooned to 14.5. Opportunistic contrarian bettors should take advantage of this artificially inflated line and pounce on the Seawolves as double-digit 'dogs.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (-1.5) vs.
Seton Hall Pirates (Thursday, 9:55 p.m.)
Despite being the lower seed, Gonzaga opened as a 2-point favorite. The Bulldogs have received just 36 percent of spread bets, which has caused the line to drop to 1.5. Additionally, Gonzaga fits our betting system from last year's tournament, which advised bettors to fade the trendy underdog. Mark Few has proven to be one of the top coaches in the nation, so we will gladly back the Zags as a small contrarian favorite.
Dayton Flyers (-1) vs.
Syracuse Orange (Friday, 12:15 p.m.)
Dayton opened as a pick 'em and, despite receiving just 41 percent of spread bets, the Flyers have moved to -1 across the sports-betting marketplace. That line movement was caused by a steam move triggered at Pinnacle -- one of our top performing bet signals. This season, the NCAA men's basketball Pinnacle steam move has gone 241-201 ATS (54.5 percent), which should give bettors confidence about backing the Flyers.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (+14) vs.
Oklahoma Sooners (Friday, 4:00 p.m.)
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Roadrunners opened as 13.5-point underdogs, and they've received just 26 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has caused the line to move a half-point from 13.5 to 14. In addition to Cal State Bakersfield's contrarian value, we should point out that CSB head coach Rod Barnes has gone 13-2 ATS in postseason games -- one of the best records in our database. The Roadrunners fit several profitable betting systems, so we will gladly go against the grain and take the 'dog in this matchup.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+7.5) vs.
West Virginia Mountaineers (Friday, 7:10 p.m.)
Stephen F. Austin opened as 8-point underdogs and, despite receiving just 32 percent of spread bets, the line has dropped to +7.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money has been hammering the Lumberjacks.
Cincinnati Bearcats (-1.5) vs.
Saint Joseph's Hawks (Friday, 9:55 p.m.)
Despite opening as a 2-point favorite, Cincinnati has received just 28 percent of spread bets. This means that they are offering contrarian value, and it also means that they fit our NCAA tournament betting system from last season. Bettors may have a hard time forgetting the Bearcats' incredible loss to UConn in the American Athletic Conference tournament, but that makes it the perfect opportunity to buy low.
ESPN INSIDER
Betting against the public is one of the most basic and popular methods used at Sports Insights. We've gone to tremendous lengths to prove that this system produces a positive return on investment, and each season we update our betting percentage data to find the optimal betting percentage threshold for that contrarian strategy.
There are two types of bettors: sharps and squares. Imagine the sports betting marketplace as a seesaw. If too many square bettors load up on one side (typically caused by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers need to even the weight by adjusting the line and encouraging action on their opponent. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors that are willing to take the unpopular side and go against the grain.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
A direct correlation exists between the number of bets placed and the value derived from betting against the public, but the sample size is limited during the regular season. Unfortunately, this makes many of our basic betting against the public strategies ineffective -- if two mid-majors square off, oddsmakers won't usually take enough action on either side to warrant a line move.
There are certain instances that fit the bill before the postseason, though. Let's pretend that North Carolina is a 7-point favorite against Duke and 80 percent of bettors are taking the Tar Heels. In this example, the game receives a large volume of bets, meaning oddsmakers would likely move the line to 7.5 or 8 to encourage more bettors to take Duke to mitigate their risk. In simpler terms, contrarian bettors would be able to get a free half-point or point by taking an unpopular viewpoint and backing the underdog.
Buying back on artificially inflated lines is almost always a profitable strategy, but that's particularly true during March Madness. The number of bets on each game rises dramatically compared to the regular season, which positively impacts the value of betting against the public.
We should point out that although most bettors can be classified as squares, these casual bettors don't account for a large portion of the total dollars wagered -- at least not during the regular season. The NCAA tournament is an entirely different animal, as the number of square bettors increases exponentially -- and public money has a greater impact on sportsbooks. The American Gaming Association estimates that more than $9.2 billion is illegally wagered on the tournament every year. In this way, the tourney is comparable to the NFL playoffs.
To provide some context, teams receiving less than 50 percent of the action on spread bets have gone just 18,363-18,465 (49.9 percent) in regular-season games, but they're 362-329 ATS (52.4 percent) in NCAA tournament games since the start of the 2004-05 season. When we focus on the most heavily-bet tournament games, our return on investment increases tremendously.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Received <50% of bets | 362-329 (52.4%) | +14.20 | +2.1% |
| Received <50% of bets, 1.5x Daily Average | 56-30 (60.9%) | +17.24 | +18.7% |
| *Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Spread Bet Volume On NCAA Tourney Teams Since 2004-05</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot>
It's still early in the week, so the numbers are subject to change before tipoff. Visit the ESPN Chalk free odds page for the latest updates.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday morning.
[h=2]NCAA tournament system matches[/h]
Vanderbilt opened as a 3-point underdog, receiving just 28 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting helped move the line another .5 points in its favor. This may be an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Commodores, who lost the final two games of the season.
After winning the Ivy League and earning a berth in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1962, Yale opened as a 5.5-point underdog and received just 28 percent of spread bets. In addition to their contrarian value, the Bulldogs also fit a profitable system that focuses on teams with slow paces. In what should be a low-scoring game, we expect Yale to keep things close and cover the spread.
In an article posted on our blog earlier this week, we found that Kentucky was one of the most overrated teams in the country -- which means this could be a fantastic opportunity to sell high on the Wildcats. Stony Brook opened as a 13.5-point underdog but, with 81 percent of bettors taking Kentucky, the line has ballooned to 14.5. Opportunistic contrarian bettors should take advantage of this artificially inflated line and pounce on the Seawolves as double-digit 'dogs.
Despite being the lower seed, Gonzaga opened as a 2-point favorite. The Bulldogs have received just 36 percent of spread bets, which has caused the line to drop to 1.5. Additionally, Gonzaga fits our betting system from last year's tournament, which advised bettors to fade the trendy underdog. Mark Few has proven to be one of the top coaches in the nation, so we will gladly back the Zags as a small contrarian favorite.
Dayton opened as a pick 'em and, despite receiving just 41 percent of spread bets, the Flyers have moved to -1 across the sports-betting marketplace. That line movement was caused by a steam move triggered at Pinnacle -- one of our top performing bet signals. This season, the NCAA men's basketball Pinnacle steam move has gone 241-201 ATS (54.5 percent), which should give bettors confidence about backing the Flyers.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Roadrunners opened as 13.5-point underdogs, and they've received just 26 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has caused the line to move a half-point from 13.5 to 14. In addition to Cal State Bakersfield's contrarian value, we should point out that CSB head coach Rod Barnes has gone 13-2 ATS in postseason games -- one of the best records in our database. The Roadrunners fit several profitable betting systems, so we will gladly go against the grain and take the 'dog in this matchup.
Stephen F. Austin opened as 8-point underdogs and, despite receiving just 32 percent of spread bets, the line has dropped to +7.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money has been hammering the Lumberjacks.
Despite opening as a 2-point favorite, Cincinnati has received just 28 percent of spread bets. This means that they are offering contrarian value, and it also means that they fit our NCAA tournament betting system from last season. Bettors may have a hard time forgetting the Bearcats' incredible loss to UConn in the American Athletic Conference tournament, but that makes it the perfect opportunity to buy low.
