[h=1]Four reasons the Capitals will make a Stanley Cup run[/h]
Matthew CollerHockey Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER
The 2015-16 regular season must feel pretty familiar for longtime followers of the Washington Capitals. The Caps have run away with the Eastern Conference, leading by 17 points in the standings with a 34-goal margin in goal differential over the next-best team. Heading into the postseason, they will be heavy favorites to represent the Eastern Conference.
But the Capitals' faithful have been burned too many times to get overly excited about a regular-season title. Three times during Bruce Boudreau's tenure (2007 to 2011), the Capitals posted more than 100 standings points -- and they were eliminated in the conference quarterfinal or semifinal each time.
While there are factors that go beyond the team's control such as randomness, luck and injuries (the Blackhawks and Kings are the two healthiest teams of the past five seasons), a closer look at Barry Trotz's team reveals that these aren't your slightly older sibling's Capitals. The 2015-16 version is less flawed than the disappointing teams of the past. Here are four reasons the Capitals can make a Stanley Cup run this spring:
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[h=2]The Ovechkin line[/h]For the majority of his career, Capitals superstar scorer Alex Ovechkin has played alongside talented center Nicklas Backstrom, but he has rarely had a consistent winger on the other side. The offseason acquisition of T.J. Oshiefrom the St. Louis Blues changed that, as Oshie has spent the entire season with Backstrom and Ovechkin.
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<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Ovechkin's Wingers</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside>Not only is the line consistent, but the former Blue is also the most talented player who has been given the opportunity to play with the two elite scorers.
The Ovechkin-Backstrom combo has never been known for its 200-foot prowess, but Oshie has solved that problem, injecting defensive talent and puck-possession skill. When the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie line is on the ice, the Capitals have a terrific goals-for percentage of 63.2, the best for the duo with any particular winger since 2009-10 (Mike Knuble). When Oshie and Ovechkin are on the ice, the Caps allow just 1.59 goals against per 60 minutes.
When it comes time for hard-nosed playoff hockey, the Capitals' top line looks significantly more difficult for opponents than it has in the past.
[h=2]Dynamic forward depth[/h]
While you may hear broadcasters say Ovechkin has "disappeared" in the playoffs, he has 70 points in 72 career playoff games. Even an outstanding performance by one star, however, is not enough to carry a team through a seven-game series. This time around, Washington's depth scoring is better than it has ever been. The addition of "Mr. Game 7" Justin Williams as a free-agent signing and the emergence of Russian star Evgeny Kuznetsov and former first-round pick Andre Burakovsky have made the Capitals much more than a one-line team.
If Williams, 34, is past his prime, he isn't showing it. The former King ranks third on the Capitals in even-strength scoring rate, posting 1.95 points per 60 minutes. He is on par with the likes of Derek Stepan and Anze Kopitar in that category. Unsurprisingly, the veteran winger is No. 1 on the team in Corsi for percentage, at 53.3.
During the early-exit era, there were players who contributed depth scoring, too. In 2009-10, Eric Fehr added 31 even-strength points and Tomas Fleischmann had 28, but neither had the puck-possession impact of Williams. When Fehr was on the ice, the Caps were only 0.2 percent better in Corsi for percentage and were 3.5 percent worse with Fleischmann playing. Compare them to Williams, who improved his team's shot attempt ratio by 3.9 percent when on the ice.
The emergence of Kuznetsov as an elite offensive player has given Washington a more reliable second-line scorer than Alex Semin was during the Boudreau days. The 23-year-old has 45 even-strength points, the most on the team by 10, which ranks first in the NHL rate-wise among players with 40 or more games. You read that right: The Capitals are so good that the league's best even-strength point producer is on the second line.
While Burakovsky, 21, has seen only 12:52 per game on average, he has made the most of his ice time. The young winger has 13 goals and 14 assists at even strength, good for the second-best even-strength scoring rate on the team, at 2.13 per 60 minutes. Many of the playoff-disappointment Caps teams had solid role players but lacked a dangerous high-end offensive talent on the bottom six. Burakovsky gives Trotz yet another weapon.
The addition of Mike Richards also could play a big role. He has appeared somewhat back to form in 25 games, posting a 52.1 Corsi for percentage.
[h=2]The Holtby Factor[/h]Washington brings something to the postseason it hasn't had since Olaf Kolzigin the late-1990s/early 2000s: A bona fide elite goaltender. Braden Holtby has a career .921 save percentage in 233 career regular-season starts and a .936 save percentage in 34 playoff games.
Holtby leads the NHL in wins this season with 41 and has posted a quality start (under two goals allowed, or higher than a .916 save percentage) in an impressive 61.8 percent of his games. He has also been incredibly consistent at even strength, with seasonal save percentages of .928, .929 and .929 since taking over as Washington's No. 1 starter. He is much more reliable than, say,Jose Theodore, who was benched for Semyon Varlamov in the 2009 playoffs.
[h=2]A weak East[/h]When you hear narratives about the Capitals failing to step up come playoff time, one thing that seems to go unnoticed is that there were other strong teams in the Eastern Conference during the years they were knocked out early. In 2008-09, for example, the Caps finished with 108 points, while Boston had 116 and New Jersey put up 106. Washington was knocked out by a Pittsburgh team that was boosted midseason by a coaching change -- a team with Sidney Crosbyand Evgeni Malkin in their primes that went on to win the Stanley Cup.
The 2009-10 season was the biggest disappointment. The Capitals ran away with the East, finishing with 121 standings points. The next best was New Jersey at 103 points. But the Caps ran into a blazing-hot goalie in Jaroslav Halak and lost in seven games.
If the Capitals come up short again, it'll be because the 2009-10 scenario happened again. The Tampa Bay Lightninghave become a dangerous team in the second half this season, the New York Rangers still have Henrik Lundqvist and the Bruins are scoring like crazy. But Washington will enter the playoffs as the best team in the East and the strongest Capitals team in the Ovechkin era.
Matthew CollerHockey Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER
The 2015-16 regular season must feel pretty familiar for longtime followers of the Washington Capitals. The Caps have run away with the Eastern Conference, leading by 17 points in the standings with a 34-goal margin in goal differential over the next-best team. Heading into the postseason, they will be heavy favorites to represent the Eastern Conference.
But the Capitals' faithful have been burned too many times to get overly excited about a regular-season title. Three times during Bruce Boudreau's tenure (2007 to 2011), the Capitals posted more than 100 standings points -- and they were eliminated in the conference quarterfinal or semifinal each time.
While there are factors that go beyond the team's control such as randomness, luck and injuries (the Blackhawks and Kings are the two healthiest teams of the past five seasons), a closer look at Barry Trotz's team reveals that these aren't your slightly older sibling's Capitals. The 2015-16 version is less flawed than the disappointing teams of the past. Here are four reasons the Capitals can make a Stanley Cup run this spring:
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]The Ovechkin line[/h]For the majority of his career, Capitals superstar scorer Alex Ovechkin has played alongside talented center Nicklas Backstrom, but he has rarely had a consistent winger on the other side. The offseason acquisition of T.J. Oshiefrom the St. Louis Blues changed that, as Oshie has spent the entire season with Backstrom and Ovechkin.
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| SEASON | PLAYER |
|---|---|
| 2008-09 | Viktor Kozlov |
| 2009-10 | Mike Knuble |
| 2010-11 | Mike Knuble |
| 2011-12 | Troy Brouwer |
| 2012-13 | Marcus Johansson |
| 2013-14 | Marcus Johansson |
| 2014-15 | Tom Wilson |
| 2015-16 | T.J. Oshie |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Ovechkin's Wingers</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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The Ovechkin-Backstrom combo has never been known for its 200-foot prowess, but Oshie has solved that problem, injecting defensive talent and puck-possession skill. When the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie line is on the ice, the Capitals have a terrific goals-for percentage of 63.2, the best for the duo with any particular winger since 2009-10 (Mike Knuble). When Oshie and Ovechkin are on the ice, the Caps allow just 1.59 goals against per 60 minutes.
When it comes time for hard-nosed playoff hockey, the Capitals' top line looks significantly more difficult for opponents than it has in the past.
[h=2]Dynamic forward depth[/h]
While you may hear broadcasters say Ovechkin has "disappeared" in the playoffs, he has 70 points in 72 career playoff games. Even an outstanding performance by one star, however, is not enough to carry a team through a seven-game series. This time around, Washington's depth scoring is better than it has ever been. The addition of "Mr. Game 7" Justin Williams as a free-agent signing and the emergence of Russian star Evgeny Kuznetsov and former first-round pick Andre Burakovsky have made the Capitals much more than a one-line team.
If Williams, 34, is past his prime, he isn't showing it. The former King ranks third on the Capitals in even-strength scoring rate, posting 1.95 points per 60 minutes. He is on par with the likes of Derek Stepan and Anze Kopitar in that category. Unsurprisingly, the veteran winger is No. 1 on the team in Corsi for percentage, at 53.3.
During the early-exit era, there were players who contributed depth scoring, too. In 2009-10, Eric Fehr added 31 even-strength points and Tomas Fleischmann had 28, but neither had the puck-possession impact of Williams. When Fehr was on the ice, the Caps were only 0.2 percent better in Corsi for percentage and were 3.5 percent worse with Fleischmann playing. Compare them to Williams, who improved his team's shot attempt ratio by 3.9 percent when on the ice.
The emergence of Kuznetsov as an elite offensive player has given Washington a more reliable second-line scorer than Alex Semin was during the Boudreau days. The 23-year-old has 45 even-strength points, the most on the team by 10, which ranks first in the NHL rate-wise among players with 40 or more games. You read that right: The Capitals are so good that the league's best even-strength point producer is on the second line.
While Burakovsky, 21, has seen only 12:52 per game on average, he has made the most of his ice time. The young winger has 13 goals and 14 assists at even strength, good for the second-best even-strength scoring rate on the team, at 2.13 per 60 minutes. Many of the playoff-disappointment Caps teams had solid role players but lacked a dangerous high-end offensive talent on the bottom six. Burakovsky gives Trotz yet another weapon.
The addition of Mike Richards also could play a big role. He has appeared somewhat back to form in 25 games, posting a 52.1 Corsi for percentage.
[h=2]The Holtby Factor[/h]Washington brings something to the postseason it hasn't had since Olaf Kolzigin the late-1990s/early 2000s: A bona fide elite goaltender. Braden Holtby has a career .921 save percentage in 233 career regular-season starts and a .936 save percentage in 34 playoff games.
Holtby leads the NHL in wins this season with 41 and has posted a quality start (under two goals allowed, or higher than a .916 save percentage) in an impressive 61.8 percent of his games. He has also been incredibly consistent at even strength, with seasonal save percentages of .928, .929 and .929 since taking over as Washington's No. 1 starter. He is much more reliable than, say,Jose Theodore, who was benched for Semyon Varlamov in the 2009 playoffs.
[h=2]A weak East[/h]When you hear narratives about the Capitals failing to step up come playoff time, one thing that seems to go unnoticed is that there were other strong teams in the Eastern Conference during the years they were knocked out early. In 2008-09, for example, the Caps finished with 108 points, while Boston had 116 and New Jersey put up 106. Washington was knocked out by a Pittsburgh team that was boosted midseason by a coaching change -- a team with Sidney Crosbyand Evgeni Malkin in their primes that went on to win the Stanley Cup.
The 2009-10 season was the biggest disappointment. The Capitals ran away with the East, finishing with 121 standings points. The next best was New Jersey at 103 points. But the Caps ran into a blazing-hot goalie in Jaroslav Halak and lost in seven games.
If the Capitals come up short again, it'll be because the 2009-10 scenario happened again. The Tampa Bay Lightninghave become a dangerous team in the second half this season, the New York Rangers still have Henrik Lundqvist and the Bruins are scoring like crazy. But Washington will enter the playoffs as the best team in the East and the strongest Capitals team in the Ovechkin era.
