[h=1]Bookmaker roundtable: Tourney sharp bets, biggest line moves[/h]
Ben FawkesESPN Staff Writer
With one of the biggest gambling weekends of the year looming, ESPN Chalk asked some of Las Vegas' top oddsmakers where the action is coming in on the NCAA tournament so far.
[h=2]1. What teams do you have the greatest future liability on right now?[/h]Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading, William Hill: Currently, we have the most liability on Kansas and Michigan State. Bettors loved those teams all season; 19 percent of the total dollars wagered and 8 percent of the total tickets are on Michigan State to win. Meanwhile, 17 percent of the total dollars wagered currently are on Kansas, and 7 percent of the total tickets.
Jay Kornegay, head oddsmaker at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook: We have the greatest future book liability on Oregon State, Northern Iowa, Yale and Florida Gulf Coast.
Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports, CG Technology: The worst team for us right now is Indiana. We took several wagers on them at 70-1 back in January, and then an accumulation of bets throughout the season on them, even as their price shortened.
[h=2]2. What tourney games have had the biggest line moves (non-First Four)?[/h]Bogdanovich: The biggest games thus far have been the UNC Wilmington-Duke game and the VCU-Oregon State game. UNC Wilmington-Duke opened at Duke minus-9, went to minus-9.5 and is now at minus-10.5. VCU-Oregon State game opened at VCU minus-3 and is currently at VCU minus-4.5.
Kornegay: Gonzaga is currently minus-2.5 vs. Seton Hall after opening at pick 'em.
Duke opened as a 9-point favorite against UNC-Wilmington; currently, the line is Duke minus-10.5.
Butler opened minus-3 vs. Texas Tech; currently, the line is Butler minus-4.
Indiana opened minus-9.5 vs. Chattanooga; currently, the line is Indiana minus-12.
Iowa opened minus-5.5 vs. Temple; currently, the line is Iowa minus-7.5.
Maryland opened minus-7 vs. South Dakota State; currently, the line is Maryland minus-9.5.
Simbal: West Virginia vs. Stephen F. Austin was our biggest miss on an opener. We opened with minus-5 and the game went to minus-7.5, but has since dropped back down to minus-7. Kentucky moved from minus-12 to minus-14, Villanova from minus-15 to minus-17 and Kansas from minus-24.5 to minus-26.
[h=2]3. Which games have you had the most public action on?[/h]Bogdanovich: The most public action right has been on Butler in its game against Texas Tech; 95 percent of the money for this game is on Butler.
Kornegay: The public likes Baylor's chances against Yale, with a 5-1 ticket count on Baylor; they also like Duke, with a 2-1 ticket count over UNC-Wilmington.
Simbal: The most publicly bet game thus far has been Kentucky, followed by Oklahoma.
[h=2]4. Which games have you had the most sharp action on?[/h]Bogdanovich: Most sharp action right now has been on VCU in its game against Oregon State; 75 percent of the total dollars wagered has been on the Rams.
Kornegay: Sharp action has come in on Hampton plus-24 vs. Virginia; Iona plus-8 vs. Iowa State; and UNC-Asheville plus-18 vs. Villanova.
Simbal: Early on, the smart side has been Butler, which went from minus-3 to minus-4 (vs. Texas Tech), and Buffalo, where they took 14 and 13.5 (vs. Miami). Our limits will increase Wednesday, so the bigger plays will start coming in then.
[h=2]5. What are the most popular futures bets to win the tourney?[/h]
Bogdanovich: The most popular futures bets coming in now besides Kansas and Michigan State are Kentucky and Oklahoma. Kentucky is currently getting 6 percent of the total tickets and 6 percent of total dollars wagered. Oklahoma is getting backed by 4 percent of the total tickets, and 3 percent of total dollars wagered.
Kornegay: Since the tournament selection show, the most popular team by ticket count to win the tournament is Kentucky, followed by Michigan State, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia.
We also put up some propositions yesterday. The most popular prop bets so far have been ACC teams having over 11.5 tournament wins and Pac-12 teams having under 7.5 tournament wins.
Simbal: The future bets we've taken the most action on so far are:
Ben FawkesESPN Staff Writer
With one of the biggest gambling weekends of the year looming, ESPN Chalk asked some of Las Vegas' top oddsmakers where the action is coming in on the NCAA tournament so far.
[h=2]1. What teams do you have the greatest future liability on right now?[/h]Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading, William Hill: Currently, we have the most liability on Kansas and Michigan State. Bettors loved those teams all season; 19 percent of the total dollars wagered and 8 percent of the total tickets are on Michigan State to win. Meanwhile, 17 percent of the total dollars wagered currently are on Kansas, and 7 percent of the total tickets.
Jay Kornegay, head oddsmaker at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook: We have the greatest future book liability on Oregon State, Northern Iowa, Yale and Florida Gulf Coast.
Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports, CG Technology: The worst team for us right now is Indiana. We took several wagers on them at 70-1 back in January, and then an accumulation of bets throughout the season on them, even as their price shortened.
[h=2]2. What tourney games have had the biggest line moves (non-First Four)?[/h]Bogdanovich: The biggest games thus far have been the UNC Wilmington-Duke game and the VCU-Oregon State game. UNC Wilmington-Duke opened at Duke minus-9, went to minus-9.5 and is now at minus-10.5. VCU-Oregon State game opened at VCU minus-3 and is currently at VCU minus-4.5.
Kornegay: Gonzaga is currently minus-2.5 vs. Seton Hall after opening at pick 'em.
Duke opened as a 9-point favorite against UNC-Wilmington; currently, the line is Duke minus-10.5.
Butler opened minus-3 vs. Texas Tech; currently, the line is Butler minus-4.
Indiana opened minus-9.5 vs. Chattanooga; currently, the line is Indiana minus-12.
Iowa opened minus-5.5 vs. Temple; currently, the line is Iowa minus-7.5.
Maryland opened minus-7 vs. South Dakota State; currently, the line is Maryland minus-9.5.
Simbal: West Virginia vs. Stephen F. Austin was our biggest miss on an opener. We opened with minus-5 and the game went to minus-7.5, but has since dropped back down to minus-7. Kentucky moved from minus-12 to minus-14, Villanova from minus-15 to minus-17 and Kansas from minus-24.5 to minus-26.
[h=2]3. Which games have you had the most public action on?[/h]Bogdanovich: The most public action right has been on Butler in its game against Texas Tech; 95 percent of the money for this game is on Butler.
Kornegay: The public likes Baylor's chances against Yale, with a 5-1 ticket count on Baylor; they also like Duke, with a 2-1 ticket count over UNC-Wilmington.
Simbal: The most publicly bet game thus far has been Kentucky, followed by Oklahoma.
[h=2]4. Which games have you had the most sharp action on?[/h]Bogdanovich: Most sharp action right now has been on VCU in its game against Oregon State; 75 percent of the total dollars wagered has been on the Rams.
Kornegay: Sharp action has come in on Hampton plus-24 vs. Virginia; Iona plus-8 vs. Iowa State; and UNC-Asheville plus-18 vs. Villanova.
Simbal: Early on, the smart side has been Butler, which went from minus-3 to minus-4 (vs. Texas Tech), and Buffalo, where they took 14 and 13.5 (vs. Miami). Our limits will increase Wednesday, so the bigger plays will start coming in then.
[h=2]5. What are the most popular futures bets to win the tourney?[/h]
Bogdanovich: The most popular futures bets coming in now besides Kansas and Michigan State are Kentucky and Oklahoma. Kentucky is currently getting 6 percent of the total tickets and 6 percent of total dollars wagered. Oklahoma is getting backed by 4 percent of the total tickets, and 3 percent of total dollars wagered.
Kornegay: Since the tournament selection show, the most popular team by ticket count to win the tournament is Kentucky, followed by Michigan State, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia.
We also put up some propositions yesterday. The most popular prop bets so far have been ACC teams having over 11.5 tournament wins and Pac-12 teams having under 7.5 tournament wins.
Simbal: The future bets we've taken the most action on so far are:
- Total value of the seeds in the Final Four (over 10.5).
- Team to go further: Villanova vs. Oklahoma (Oklahoma leads)
- ACC wins in the tournament (under 13.5).
