Current Housing Market is a Joke

TheFalls · Mar 20, 2016

We sold our house in 2013...and have been renting a condo since then.
Been looking for a house for about a month+ now (around DFW airport in general)...the houses where we are looking are lasting about 3 days on the market.

Anyways, we put our first bid...$370K on a house listed for $349K (on the tax roll for $290K House was on the market for 2 days, had 60 showings and 20+ offers.
We didn't get it...and I'm pretty happy about it and pretty pissed about it.

I would wait for another couple of years to think about buying if the wifey didn't want one now.

weezyfbaby · Mar 20, 2016

Guy at work listed his house on a Sunday night and he accepted an offer monday at lunch. This was in charlotte.

PatsFan1283 · Mar 20, 2016

At worst, it is a decent sized bubble.

At best, it is probably just a mediocre to bad investment that won't grow like it historically has. Locations vary and still good for forced savings though.

DesertNole · Mar 20, 2016

Not as bad as multifamily/apartments, that market may be the next meltdown. Projects are going up everywhere, cap rates are a joke given the risk.

JustinCruise · Mar 20, 2016

Bought my house last year a day after it went on the market

Lost 2 houses before that because of insane bidding wars

Worked out better for us in the end, but market is nuts right now

PatsFan1283 · Mar 20, 2016

“Madness is rare in individuals—but in groups, parties, nations, and ages it is the rule,”

Albatross · Mar 20, 2016

Supply and demand. I am in the business and know it wont last. 3Q this year is what we are seeing as the price adjustment period. We have about a 5 month supply of "cheap/foreclosed" lots left and then there will be a price adjustment to the new developments have a new cost.

TheFalls · Mar 20, 2016

3Q? That's when prices would potentially stop going up? Then they would stagnate for a while...
But Texas is a different breed that is pretty much unaffected by everything else...especially DFW/Austin/Houston.
Everyone keeps moving here.
Home prices have continued to fly up while oil got smoked...you would think there should have been some correlation. But not in this piece.

PatsFan1283 · Mar 20, 2016

The Falls said:
3Q? That's when prices would potentially stop going up? Then they would stagnate for a while...
But Texas is a different breed that is pretty much unaffected by everything else...especially DFW/Austin/Houston.
Everyone keeps moving here.
Home prices have continued to fly up while oil got smoked...you would think there should have been some correlation. But not in this piece.

Migration trends likely to continue but Texas has tons of land in all directions of major cities and doesn't seem to have much restriction on development.

FWIW, the oil industry consolidating has hurt Houston real estate.

TheFalls · Mar 20, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
Migration trends likely to continue but Texas has tons of land in all directions of major cities and doesn't seem to have much restriction on development.

FWIW, the oil industry consolidating has hurt Houston real estate.

I guess I was referring more to DFW...and I know Austin keeps ticking. No one likes or really cares about Houston.

PatsFan1283 · Mar 20, 2016

This isn't something I've read or anything but it's possible it is just a market correction in a sense. Texas real estate had gone up slower than the national average for decades.

So maybe now some of that value is being seized upon and prices are finally starting to come in line with a lot of other major metros.

seldomseen · Mar 20, 2016

Albatross said:
Supply and demand. I am in the business and know it wont last. 3Q this year is what we are seeing as the price adjustment period. We have about a 5 month supply of "cheap/foreclosed" lots left and then there will be a price adjustment to the new developments have a new cost.

Are you thinking the purchase market might slow down in the 3rd or 4th quarter? Although my client base maybe is different, over the past 30 days i've seen it go up quite a bit.

TheFalls · Mar 20, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
This isn't something I've read or anything but it's possible it is just a market correction in a sense. Texas real estate had gone up slower than the national average for decades.

So maybe now some of that value is being seized upon and prices are finally starting to come in line with a lot of other major metros.

This is what I do believe as well...

metro · Mar 21, 2016

are u in Tampa ?

seldomseen said:
Are you thinking the purchase market might slow down in the 3rd or 4th quarter? Although my client base maybe is different, over the past 30 days i've seen it go up quite a bit.

Albatross · Mar 21, 2016

seldomseen said:
Are you thinking the purchase market might slow down in the 3rd or 4th quarter? Although my client base maybe is different, over the past 30 days i've seen it go up quite a bit.

By our data that will be when the market has to make a price adjustment due to the rising cost of land. In our area (north atl), the past 2.5 years we have flourished from profitability of purchasing distressed lots through the downturn. Many cases sales pricing was set on competition and not on future cost. I have a development that was purchased in 2011. All in we are sitting in each lot av 17k per. Houses selling in 400k range. Markup on distressed lots to 50k. A new piece is being developed basically next door. Lot cost for bulk take down 85k.

Summary is in my area, we believe there will be a price increase across the board to address this. All due to cost of land. The question that I have is how will the appraisal world deal with this.....they have held pretty tight.

Texny · Mar 21, 2016

I live in the dfw area and received 4 offers. The only thing is that when I get to closing my buyers have problems right before closing with financing.

Acebb · Mar 21, 2016

Widening U.S. Home-Price Gap Makes Trading Up Harder

The widening gap between the middle and upper tiers of home prices is making it harder for people to trade up, tightening inventories and pressuring prices, according to a study set to be released Monday.

The analysis, by real-estate tracker Trulia, found that fewer midrange or trade-up homes came onto the market over the past four years in metro areas where prices of high-end homes shot up the most.

Midtier homeowners are less likely to try to sell if premium homes are out of reach. That reduces inventory of such homes, leading to sales stagnation and higher prices.
“People may be in a good spot to sell their homes, but if they can’t find another home to buy they’re going to be more likely to stay put,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia. “It’s really a gridlock, a traffic jam that’s playing out in the housing market.”

festeringZit · Mar 21, 2016

The Falls said:
I guess I was referring more to DFW...and I know Austin keeps ticking. No one likes or really cares about Houston.

I'm in Austin, and the housing market is very healthy here... no signs of slowing down.

Too many Californians moving in, sadly.

TheFalls · Mar 21, 2016

festeringZit said:
I'm in Austin, and the housing market is very healthy here... no signs of slowing down.

Too many Californians moving in, sadly.

Yep...

It's very hard, and disadvantageous, to be buying a house right now, if you aren't selling a house right now.
Cali peeps are paying cash for houses here and there.

seldomseen · Mar 21, 2016

metro said:
are u in Tampa ?

Jacksonville

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