[h=1]How to bet Sunday's Elite Eight games[/h]
- Dave Tuley
- Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
Chalk's college basketball experts are back with their best bets for Sunday's Elite Eight matchups.
Tuley: After Saturday's regional finals (aka the Elite Eight) were set to feature No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, Sunday's East and Midwest finals will have two more No. 1s -- Virginia and North Carolina -- taking on relative outsiders No. 10 Syracuse and No. 6 Notre Dame, respectively.
The chalky Sweet 16 continued Friday, as Virginia and Notre Dame won and covered as favorites (though the Irish needed an 8-0 run to end its 61-56 win over Wisconsin and cover the 1.5-point spread) before Syracuse pulled off the first upset 63-60 over Gonzaga after closing as 4-point underdogs and +170 on the money line despite being the higher seed. North Carolina's 101-86 rout of Indiana made favorites 7-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in Thursday's and Friday's regional semifinals. Unders were 5-3 in that round.
We've been making plays throughout the tournament here with Andrew Lange. Friday wasn't our best day, as I split with my best bets, losing with Iowa State but then winning with Syracuse, while Lange lost with the under in the North Carolina-Indiana game. But now we'll try to put what we saw Friday to good use in picking Sunday's two games (though we land on opposite sides of the first game).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
And if you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
[h=2]ATS picks for every game[/h]Note: Picks marked with an asterisk are best bets. All times are ET.
No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-8) vs. No. 10 Syracuse Orange
6:09 p.m.
Current total: 124
PickCenter consensus: 51 percent pick Virginia to cover
BPI: Virginia has 84 percent chance of winning
Tuley: Virginia was certainly impressive in its 84-71 win over Iowa State. We knew the Cavaliers' defense would challenge the high-scoring Cyclones but didn't expect them to outshoot them in the early going with three 3-pointers in the first five minutes to grab a 17-3 lead and extend it to 26-9. Virginia is certainly dangerous if it can repeat that performance, however, the Cavs face a much tougher defense in Syracuse (way tougher than Iowa State's). Jim Boeheim's famed 2-3 zone contests 3-pointers on the perimeter and is a sea of long arms when teams try throwing it into the paint. The defense came through when it needed to down the stretch against Gonzaga. And I really liked howMichael Gbinije stepped up and took charge on offense; he had 20 points, and I expect him to do better than 8-of-23 from the floor in this game. I believe we're getting a fair price on Syracuse here, as Virginia did win the regular-season meeting by eight points (73-65), but that game was tied with eight minutes to play. The NCAA Vegas Rankings that we're part of at ESPN Chalk has Virginia as only 6.5 points better than Syracuse, so there's a little value there. I also like that the over/under is a mere 124, which shows that the oddsmakers believe this will be a relatively low-scoring game, and that makes each point we're getting more valuable.
Pick: Syracuse +8*
Lange: I was on the Syracuse side once the point spread climbed to +5 against Gonzaga, and it wasn't a pretty win for the Orange on Friday night. In fact, they were outplayed for much of the game. The difference came down to the free throw line and turnovers. Syracuse attempted 16 free throws while Gonzaga got to the charity stripe only five times and committed 17 turnovers. When the Zags weren't turning it over, open shots were plentiful. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis had a field day against the Syracuse zone with 52 points on 17-of-29 combined shooting. That spells danger against a Virginia team loaded with inside and outside offense balance.
Gonzaga coach Mark Few had said prior to the game that his squad hadn't seen much of any zone this season. The same can't be said for Virginia, which beat Syracuse in Charlottesville on Jan. 26. The Orange were able to stick around -- UVA never led by more than 10 -- thanks to a 13-of-30, 43 percent effort from 3. I'm more interested, however, in the 2-point shooting for both squads. Virginia shot a blistering 17-of-26 whereas Syracuse hit only eight shots on 24 attempts inside the 3-point line. The 3-point shot is the ultimate equalizer, but I see a team in Virginia that is going to take a lot of high-percentage shots, won't allow Syracuse to go wild on the offensive glass, and take far better care of the basketball. I'll take that over the course of 40 minutes vs. a so-so outside shooting team that will need an outlier-type performance from beyond 20 feet to stick around. Anything less than double digit is a play on the favorite.
Pick: Virginia -8*
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-10) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8:49 p.m.
Current total: 156
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick North Carolina to cover
BPI: North Carolina has 69 percent chance of winning
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</article>Tuley: Notre Dame is a scrappy team that has come from behind to beat Michigan, Stephen F. Austin and Wisconsin in its three tourney wins. I would usually be all over an underdog like that getting double digits, especially because Notre Dame beat North Carolina 80-76 in February. However, a few things give me pause. For starters, the Tar Heels are playing much better now, winning eight straight, and in that run was a 78-47 rout of this same Irish team in the ACC tournament. In addition, our NCAA Vegas Rankings have North Carolina as 11 points better than Notre Dame at this time, so I don't feel I'm getting enough points (though check the comments if this line continues to rise). This North Carolina team could already beat you up on the inside (Note: even in the early Notre Dame win, the Tar Heels had 23 second-chance points), and now with Marcus Paige lighting it up from the outside, they're close to unbeatable. I keep looking at that most recent score, mostly as a reminder to not take only 9.5 points, but also that the under is probably the best way to play this game. North Carolina's length on defense gave the Irish problems in the last meeting and could make it hard to get to this number, even if the Tar Heels score in the 80s.
Pick: Under 156
