My best MLB season win total bets
Joe PetaSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
My 2015 MLB team-by-team season win-total summaries contained 16 over/under recommendations, which went 10-5-1 by season's end. I also previewed Sunday Night baseball games all season, and picks in those games finished 14-8 (plus-6 units). Then I got hot.
Correctly selecting the winner of every postseason series but one, plus going four out of five in other single-game plays, I had a 12-2 (plus-10.77 units) postseason record by the time the Kansas City Royals were celebrating their first World Series title in 30 years at Citi Field. I hope to have the same success this year with single-team previews of all 30 MLB franchises with over/under recommendations on more than half of the teams. Below are my four best bets -- one over and one under in each league. (All season win total markets courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of March 29.)
[h=2]Best AL 'over' bet[/h]
Cleveland Indians: Over 87 wins
For a number of years, Chad Millman ran a contest in which he asked readers for their best prop bet idea prior to the Super Bowl. The most original prop idea, as judged by oddsmaker Bob Scucci, was posted at The Orleans during Super Bowl week. With that in mind, I've got a proposal for the baseball season that I think would make an excellent prop bet: Which team will be the first to clinch their division? There's a lot to consider on that bet, which makes it fascinating, but even better for bookmakers. Outside of about 15 teams, "the field" should be priced very high and might attract a lot of longshot interest as well.
Even though I'm certain the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays would be priced as the betting favorites on such a prop, I wouldn't hesitate to back the Cleveland Indians.
Prior to the second half of 2015, Cleveland's strikeout-happy pitching staff had been sabotaged by the defense on the relatively few balls that were hit into the field of play. That all changed last year after the in-season call up ofFrancisco Lindor. The rotation finally has the support it needs to translate the Indians' production into wins; Cleveland is backed by three back-end relievers on a par with the much more heralded American League trio in Kansas City and New York, as well as the defense.
I see the Indians as a team that is stacked and poised to win more than 90 games, lead the AL in wins and cruise to the AL Central title.
[h=2]Best AL 'under' bet[/h]
Baltimore Orioles: Under 78 wins
Two seasons ago, the Orioles played for, and were heavy favorites to win, the American League pennant. Last year, they needed to win their last five games of the season to play .500 baseball, their worst record in four seasons. This year, it looks like the bottom could fall out.
Not only did the Orioles lose their only effective starting pitcher (Wei-Yin Chen, 3.34 ERA) from a staff that allowed 100 more runs in 2015 than the year before, but they've significantly weakened a defense, which suddenly dropped to league average after two straight years of top-5 performances. Don't let the offense's home run potential fool you; a disproportionate amount of those blasts are going to come with the bases empty and they might not be enough to make up for the weak defense (I'm looking at you, Mark Trumbo) that will accompany them.
Finally, there's the matter of context. Every other team chasing the Blue Jays in the AL East has gotten better this offseason, making a last-place finish for the Orioles highly probable.
[h=2]Best NL 'over' bet[/h]
Miami Marlins: Over 80 wins
This line has already jumped a game and a half from when it opened at 78.5, but don't let that scare you -- this is still a great play.
For all the intriguing under-27 pairings of MVP-caliber sluggers and rotation aces across the majors, Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez have the distinction of providing their team more than 20 WAR over the past three seasons while barely ever playing together. Stanton and Fernandez have played in the same game only 28 times in their careers and only eight times in the past two seasons. If all goes as planned, that figure should more than double this year. Thanks to the presence of loads of young talent on offense, and a rotation fortified by the addition of Wei-Yin Chen, when it does happen in September, the Marlins may be in the process of accepting postseason ticket requests.
[h=2]Best NL 'under' bet[/h]
Pittsburgh Pirates: Under 85.5 wins
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; height: auto; width: auto;">
</article>Like the Miami call, the market has also moved against this play since opening last month. Here, the movement has been by a game, to 85.5, and while that's a material move for a team that hasn't won fewer than 88 games in the past three seasons, it's still a good price for a team that I project will have a hard time outscoring their opponents.
The primary problem in the run differential calculation for Pittsburgh is the runs-allowed portion of the equation. The bullpen had an MLB-leading 2.67 ERA in 2015. Not only is that generally unsustainable -- the four teams since 2011 with better ERAs gave up an average of about 50 more runs the subsequent year -- but specifically the Pirates relievers had underlying skill sets closer to league average than elite.
The rotation's loss of A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton may not sound damaging to fantasy baseball players, but their 60 starts' worth of 3.54 ERA is going to be hard to replicate, especially when their replacements areJonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. Add to that mix a defense which, unnoticed to all but the number crunchers, dropped to below average after two years of top-7 support for the pitchers, and everything is in place for a nasty increase in runs allowed this year.
Joe PetaSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
My 2015 MLB team-by-team season win-total summaries contained 16 over/under recommendations, which went 10-5-1 by season's end. I also previewed Sunday Night baseball games all season, and picks in those games finished 14-8 (plus-6 units). Then I got hot.
Correctly selecting the winner of every postseason series but one, plus going four out of five in other single-game plays, I had a 12-2 (plus-10.77 units) postseason record by the time the Kansas City Royals were celebrating their first World Series title in 30 years at Citi Field. I hope to have the same success this year with single-team previews of all 30 MLB franchises with over/under recommendations on more than half of the teams. Below are my four best bets -- one over and one under in each league. (All season win total markets courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of March 29.)
[h=2]Best AL 'over' bet[/h]
For a number of years, Chad Millman ran a contest in which he asked readers for their best prop bet idea prior to the Super Bowl. The most original prop idea, as judged by oddsmaker Bob Scucci, was posted at The Orleans during Super Bowl week. With that in mind, I've got a proposal for the baseball season that I think would make an excellent prop bet: Which team will be the first to clinch their division? There's a lot to consider on that bet, which makes it fascinating, but even better for bookmakers. Outside of about 15 teams, "the field" should be priced very high and might attract a lot of longshot interest as well.
Even though I'm certain the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays would be priced as the betting favorites on such a prop, I wouldn't hesitate to back the Cleveland Indians.
Prior to the second half of 2015, Cleveland's strikeout-happy pitching staff had been sabotaged by the defense on the relatively few balls that were hit into the field of play. That all changed last year after the in-season call up ofFrancisco Lindor. The rotation finally has the support it needs to translate the Indians' production into wins; Cleveland is backed by three back-end relievers on a par with the much more heralded American League trio in Kansas City and New York, as well as the defense.
I see the Indians as a team that is stacked and poised to win more than 90 games, lead the AL in wins and cruise to the AL Central title.
[h=2]Best AL 'under' bet[/h]
Baltimore Orioles: Under 78 wins
Two seasons ago, the Orioles played for, and were heavy favorites to win, the American League pennant. Last year, they needed to win their last five games of the season to play .500 baseball, their worst record in four seasons. This year, it looks like the bottom could fall out.
Not only did the Orioles lose their only effective starting pitcher (Wei-Yin Chen, 3.34 ERA) from a staff that allowed 100 more runs in 2015 than the year before, but they've significantly weakened a defense, which suddenly dropped to league average after two straight years of top-5 performances. Don't let the offense's home run potential fool you; a disproportionate amount of those blasts are going to come with the bases empty and they might not be enough to make up for the weak defense (I'm looking at you, Mark Trumbo) that will accompany them.
Finally, there's the matter of context. Every other team chasing the Blue Jays in the AL East has gotten better this offseason, making a last-place finish for the Orioles highly probable.
[h=2]Best NL 'over' bet[/h]
Miami Marlins: Over 80 wins
This line has already jumped a game and a half from when it opened at 78.5, but don't let that scare you -- this is still a great play.
For all the intriguing under-27 pairings of MVP-caliber sluggers and rotation aces across the majors, Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez have the distinction of providing their team more than 20 WAR over the past three seasons while barely ever playing together. Stanton and Fernandez have played in the same game only 28 times in their careers and only eight times in the past two seasons. If all goes as planned, that figure should more than double this year. Thanks to the presence of loads of young talent on offense, and a rotation fortified by the addition of Wei-Yin Chen, when it does happen in September, the Marlins may be in the process of accepting postseason ticket requests.
[h=2]Best NL 'under' bet[/h]
Pittsburgh Pirates: Under 85.5 wins
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; height: auto; width: auto;">
</article>Like the Miami call, the market has also moved against this play since opening last month. Here, the movement has been by a game, to 85.5, and while that's a material move for a team that hasn't won fewer than 88 games in the past three seasons, it's still a good price for a team that I project will have a hard time outscoring their opponents.
The primary problem in the run differential calculation for Pittsburgh is the runs-allowed portion of the equation. The bullpen had an MLB-leading 2.67 ERA in 2015. Not only is that generally unsustainable -- the four teams since 2011 with better ERAs gave up an average of about 50 more runs the subsequent year -- but specifically the Pirates relievers had underlying skill sets closer to league average than elite.
The rotation's loss of A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton may not sound damaging to fantasy baseball players, but their 60 starts' worth of 3.54 ERA is going to be hard to replicate, especially when their replacements areJonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. Add to that mix a defense which, unnoticed to all but the number crunchers, dropped to below average after two years of top-7 support for the pitchers, and everything is in place for a nasty increase in runs allowed this year.
