- [h=1]How to bet the 2016 Final Four[/h]
- Dave Tuley
- Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
- Dave Tuley
- After the Sweet 16, it looked quite possible that we could have had all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four this weekend.
However, No. 2 Oklahoma beat Oregon 80-68 in the West as a 1-point underdog and No. 2 Villanova beat Kansas 64-59 in the Midwest in the regional title game as a 2-point 'dog last Saturday. On Sunday, Syracuse beat Virginia 68-62 in the South Regional as an 8-point underdog before North Carolina became the only No. 1 team and only favorite to win (and cover) with its 88-74 victory over Notre Dame as a 9.5-point favorite in the East Regional.
That 1-3 ATS round for the favorites followed a 7-1 ATS mark in the Sweet 16 games last Thursday and Friday. For the tournament, favorites still lead 32-28 ATS (53.3 percent) while overs are 30-29-1 after both Saturday games stayed under and both Sunday games went over. We've been making plays throughout the tournament with Andrew Lange, and yours truly had Villanova over Kansas as my best bet on Saturday. We split on Sunday as I had Syracuse over Virginia while Lange sided with Virginia.
We'll now try to put what we saw last weekend to good use in picking Saturday's Final Four games. And if you're looking for more analysis and help with your own handicapping, be sure to check out PickCenter and the Chalk home page.
[h=2]ATS picks for every game[/h]Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. All times are ET.
[h=2]No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-2) vs. No. 2Oklahoma Sooners[/h]6:05 p.m.
Current total: 145
PickCenter consensus: 54 percent pick Villanova to cover
BPI: Villanova has 51.3 percent chance of winning
Tuley: Normally, I would love<offer style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; box-sizing: border-box;"> an underdog like Oklahoma that proved it could beat its opponent already (as the Sooners did in a 78-55 rout in Hawaii back in December), but Villanova is a much better team now. The Wildcats have relied on their defense all season, allowing just 63.6 points per game, but have really picked it up on offense in the NCAA tournament, averaging 82.5 PPG despite scoring "only" 64 in the upset of Kansas. The NCAA Vegas Rankings that we do at ESPN Chalk have the Wildcats rated as 3 points better than the Sooners, so we weren't surprised to see the early money coming in on the favorite after Villanova opened -1.5.
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Oklahoma's Buddy Hield will be the best player on the court, but the Wildcats did hold him to 18 points in that earlier meeting, and I expect them to contest a lot of his shots. However, even if Hield gets his points, Villanova now has the offense to keep up as the Wildcats are shooting 55 percent in the tourney and 46 percent from 3-point territory. They really are the more complete team at this time and I expect the favorite to get the win and cover.
ATS pick: Villanova -2
Lange: I was impressed with the way Villanova beat both Miami (Florida) and Kansas. The Wildcats hung 92 points on 59 possessions in a blowout win over the Hurricanes and turned right around and won a 64-59 grinder against the Jayhawks. Most teams that get to this point have the ability to win a number of ways, but of the remaining four teams, Villanova is the most versatile on both ends of the floor. Oklahoma doesn't have that ability.
As we know, the Sooners rely a lot on Hield and the outside shot. Through four games, Hield has averaged just shy of 30 PPG and the team has knocked down 44 percent of its 3-pointers on nearly 100 attempts. What happens if Hield & Co. struggle with the aforementioned sightlines and surroundings of NRG Stadium? Villanova's not shy about shooting 3s either, but if both teams fail to knock down outside shots, Villanova then becomes more than a 2-point favorite.
Lean: Villanova -2
[h=2]No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-9.5) vs. No. 10 Syracuse Orange[/h]8:45 p.m.
Current total: 145
PickCenter consensus: 52 percent pick North Carolina to cover
BPI: UNC has 79 percent chance of winning
Tuley: Syracuse continues its Cinderella run and now has ACC rival North Carolina standing in its way. The Tar Heels swept the regular-season series, covering at Syracuse but then only beating the Orange 75-70 and failing to cover at home. Syracuse was within a basket late in that game, and considering how it's now playing its best basketball of the season, I believe the Orange can stay close again.
Jim Boeheim's famed 2-3 zone will again be the key, challenging 3-pointers (though it hasn't seen North Carolina's Marcus Paige this red hot) and collapsing down on the big men in the paint. In addition to the Orange defense, it wouldn't hurt if the venue kept the scoring down, as a low-scoring game certainly helps when getting this many points. Now, while I do like Syracuse to cover the spread, I'm not as confident in the outright upset (though it is tempting at +400) since the Tar Heels are more familiar with Boeheim's schemes than other opponents.
North Carolina is still our top-rated team and I expect them to advance to the title game, just not in a rout.
ATS pick: Syracuse +9.5*
Lange: In Syracuse's wins over Gonzaga and Virginia, the Orange were outplayed for close to 70 of the 80 minutes. The Zags and Cavaliers got clean looks, competed well on the glass and for the most part took care of the basketball. But late in both games, Syracuse got desperate, changed its look and turned the game into mass chaos -- which somehow worked. To me, both victories had more to do with the opposition's deer-in-the-headlights reaction than the Orange's execution.
In their past two games, the Orange shot 36 percent from the floor. Their saving grace was despite being an average team from the free throw line (69 percent), they managed to knock down 34 of 41 freebies. All good (or ultra-fortunate) things must come to an end, and I'm not sure Jim Boeheim has any more rabbits to pull out of his hat. I think the point spread reflects Syracuse's shortcomings in this matchup, so I'd be far more willing to lay the points.
Lean: North Carolina -9.5
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Lange: The first handicapping angle for both Final Four matchups is NRG Stadium. This isn't your typical college basketball venue, with a seating capacity of nearly 72,000 and a total area of 1.9 million square feet. Needless to say it's spacious and hasn't been kind to offenses. All three games at last year's NCAA tournament South Regional finals went under the total -- by a combined 43.5 points. And who could forget 2011's title game that saw UConn and Butler combine for 10-of-44 from 3-point range and just 94 points. Add it all up and the past six games at NRG Stadium have gone under the total by an average of 17 points. The lone over (2011 Final Four, Butler vs. VCU) came by a half point. Bettors remember stuff like that, which is why both games for Saturday have seen a steady flow of under money.
Tuley: As Lange says, sharp sports bettors have been looking forward to betting the unders in this year's Final Four. I remember last year during the South Regional, a lot of people were talking on social media about how you could only bet unders in NRG Stadium. In addition to Lange's stats above, the South Regional semifinals and finals last year averaged just 124.5 points per game in games featuring eventual NCAA champ Duke, Gonzaga, Utah and UCLA. And then Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Info (you might know him as "the Bear" from College GameDay) tweeted this out last weekend.
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Last year teams shot 39.7% from field, 26.7% from 3 in Houston regional. Wonder who will be affected most by tough shooting environment.
- Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica)March 27, 2016
When the over/under was posted for the Villanova-Oklahoma matchup, it opened 149.5 at most books and as high as 150 at offshore giant Pinnacle. It has since been bet down to 145 (as of Thursday morning). The North Carolina-Syracuse over/under opened as a consensus of 147.5 and is also down to 145.- Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica)March 27, 2016
So, as I say in the video above, let the bettor beware. I've heard plenty of people on TV and elsewhere talking about betting the unders, but if you've waited until now, know that you've missed the best numbers.
Note for the national title game: if both games do stay under on Saturday (or if one is an under and the other should have stayed under but ends up going over due to bunch of fouls at the end of regulation or the game going to overtime), expect to see the same thing happen to the total for Monday's title game. If you want to jump on the under bandwagon, be sure to bet it ASAP (and I'm sure there will be a lot of people trying to set up middles).
