Hi guys, I am new in baseball forum, some of you know me from NHL forum, where I post my plays and projected lines. I will share my projected lines and my picks here in one topic.
About Projected Lines. I have created my model, which shows me raw probabilities of the outcomes. I convert those probabilities into odds.
Money management:
My starting bankroll (11.3.2016) is 10.000 Units. I finished my NHL math model late in the season, so I started later and I am currently sitting at +650.71 Units. I have only one budget for all sports (MLB and NHL are the only sports I bet right now). My budget is not big right now and I will use progressive strategy. I will recalculate my risks every day. They will vary from 0.5% to 5% of current bankroll. I will start with 2% of current bankroll per bet at the start of the season. Later my risks will depend on odds and my projected lines with other factors included.
I use EU odds, but I will write US lines here. I don't bet 130 units on -130 lines. I always play the amount I write.
All odds are taken from Pinnaclesports.com, so we don't get into "where did you get those odds" discussion.
I will show:
Profit in Units
Yield - profit/total risked
Picks played (because win% is useless information)
Pick example:
Boston -115 (130 units = 3%)
In this case I risked 130 units to win 113 units this is 3% of current bankroll
That's it.
I wish you profitable season. I hope I will do well too!
About Projected Lines. I have created my model, which shows me raw probabilities of the outcomes. I convert those probabilities into odds.
Money management:
My starting bankroll (11.3.2016) is 10.000 Units. I finished my NHL math model late in the season, so I started later and I am currently sitting at +650.71 Units. I have only one budget for all sports (MLB and NHL are the only sports I bet right now). My budget is not big right now and I will use progressive strategy. I will recalculate my risks every day. They will vary from 0.5% to 5% of current bankroll. I will start with 2% of current bankroll per bet at the start of the season. Later my risks will depend on odds and my projected lines with other factors included.
I use EU odds, but I will write US lines here. I don't bet 130 units on -130 lines. I always play the amount I write.
All odds are taken from Pinnaclesports.com, so we don't get into "where did you get those odds" discussion.
I will show:
Profit in Units
Yield - profit/total risked
Picks played (because win% is useless information)
Pick example:
Boston -115 (130 units = 3%)
In this case I risked 130 units to win 113 units this is 3% of current bankroll
That's it.
I wish you profitable season. I hope I will do well too!
