[h=1]How to bet the UNC-Villanova national title game[/h][h=1]
North Carolina, which was the No. 1 seed in the East Region, opened as a 2-point favorite at the majority of sportsbooks here after the Final Four games on Saturday night. That has grown to a 3-point spread at several books. The Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread in their tournament games, with the only non-cover being their 83-67 win over Florida Gulf Coast as 23-point favorites in the first round. They've won and covered their past four games.
But Villanova has arguably been more impressive. The Wildcats were the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, but they beat No. 1 Kansas 64-59 in the Elite Eight as 2-point underdogs and have gone 5-0 against the spread.
Both won their Final Four games in routs as Villanova beat Oklahoma 95-51 as a 2.5-point favorite (the biggest blowout in the history of national semifinals) and North Carolina beat Syracuse 83-66 as a 10-point favorite. The two teams have set a record for largest combined margin of victory of 202 points (20.2 points per game) for two finalists, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
We've been making plays throughout the tournament with Andrew Lange, and we both had Villanova in Saturday's first game. We were on opposite sides of the nightcap, as Lange had a lean on North Carolina and I lost my best bet on Syracuse.
Personally, I was happiest with my advice for people looking to bet the over/unders, as I pointed out that the Villanova-Oklahoma total opened at 149.5 points and was bet down to 145 by the time our betting guide was posted. Everyone was talking about the low-scoring history in NRG Stadium and pounding the unders, but I said beware that the best numbers were gone and any late under bettors risked getting burned. That's what happened as the game landed at 146.
We'll now try to put what we saw on Saturday to good use in picking Monday's national championship game. And if you're looking for more analysis and help with your own handicapping, be sure to check out PickCenter.
[h=2]ATS and over/under picks[/h]Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. All times are ET.
[h=2]No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats[/h]9:15 p.m.
Current total: 150.5
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick North Carolina to cover
BPI: North Carolina has 50.1 percent chance of winning
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Tuley: I've been on Villanova the past two games after seeing how the Wildcats really started clicking on offense to go with their vaunted defense. In fact, Villanova is shooting 58 percent from the field, tops of any team entering the title games since the field expanded in 1985. That was bolstered by hitting 71.4 percent against Oklahoma, second only to when Villanova hit 78.6 percent against Georgetown in its 1985 title game upset.
This team is historically hot and capable of matching North Carolina score for score. The key will be in keeping the Tar Heels' talented frontline of Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks off the offensive boards for easy putbacks. A lot of that will fall to Nova's Daniel Ochefu, who has been up to the task so far even when the Wildcats go to a four-guard lineup.
The NCAA Vegas rankings that we're apart of here at ESPN Chalk have North Carolina as 2.5 points better than Villanova, so it's right around the current spread (though if we upgrade the Wildcats a little more for Saturday's record-setting rout, we could argue the line should be lower). With both Final Four games going over the closing totals and all the talk about the shooting atmosphere at NRG Stadium seeming to disappear, I'm liking the under in the title game, as we're no longer seeing a depressed total. While both teams shot well on Saturday, there were times when shots were way off and -- again, we're hoping against the teams, especially North Carolina, getting a lot of layups -- we could see the outside shooting going cold for stretches and this game having a hard time to get to 150.5.
ATS pick: Villanova (lean to under 150.5)
Lange: Incredible offensive efficiency has been the storyline throughout the tournament for Villanova and UNC -- and both teams have averaged an identical (and remarkable) 1.31 points per possession in the five games leading up to tonight's championship. It's resulted in a lot of comfortable, wins with only Villanova's 64-59 Elite Eight victory over Kansas decided by fewer than double-digit points.
I think the Wildcats' run to the title game has been more impressive as Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma were all power rated among the top 15 nationally and seeded No. 3 or higher. North Carolina has had an easier go of it by drawing no opponent better than a No. 5 seed. The Tar Heels have also had it easy in terms of opposing defenses. Indiana, Notre Dame and Syracuse do not boast elite-level stop units. It shouldn't be a deal breaker for bettors looking to back North Carolina, but I think Villanova has the capabilities to be the first opponent to offer some defensive resistance and perhaps knock the Tar Heels out of rhythm -- something that has yet to occur.
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</article>The concern, however, is the size factor as Daniel Ochefu (6-foot-11) is the only player in the Wildcats' rotation taller than 6-7. UNC has obviously made a living in the paint and on the offensive glass with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.
In the end, the current side and total are in pretty good spots. There are likely better opportunities for value by utilizing in-game wagering or a halftime bet. As I said prior to Villanova's game against Oklahoma, I'm a big fan of the Wildcats' ability to win different types of games: slow, fast, high-scoring or low-scoring. At +3, I would be interested in the underdog.
ATS pick: Lean Villanova
- Dave Tuley
- Andrew Lang
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North Carolina, which was the No. 1 seed in the East Region, opened as a 2-point favorite at the majority of sportsbooks here after the Final Four games on Saturday night. That has grown to a 3-point spread at several books. The Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread in their tournament games, with the only non-cover being their 83-67 win over Florida Gulf Coast as 23-point favorites in the first round. They've won and covered their past four games.
But Villanova has arguably been more impressive. The Wildcats were the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, but they beat No. 1 Kansas 64-59 in the Elite Eight as 2-point underdogs and have gone 5-0 against the spread.
Both won their Final Four games in routs as Villanova beat Oklahoma 95-51 as a 2.5-point favorite (the biggest blowout in the history of national semifinals) and North Carolina beat Syracuse 83-66 as a 10-point favorite. The two teams have set a record for largest combined margin of victory of 202 points (20.2 points per game) for two finalists, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
We've been making plays throughout the tournament with Andrew Lange, and we both had Villanova in Saturday's first game. We were on opposite sides of the nightcap, as Lange had a lean on North Carolina and I lost my best bet on Syracuse.
Personally, I was happiest with my advice for people looking to bet the over/unders, as I pointed out that the Villanova-Oklahoma total opened at 149.5 points and was bet down to 145 by the time our betting guide was posted. Everyone was talking about the low-scoring history in NRG Stadium and pounding the unders, but I said beware that the best numbers were gone and any late under bettors risked getting burned. That's what happened as the game landed at 146.
We'll now try to put what we saw on Saturday to good use in picking Monday's national championship game. And if you're looking for more analysis and help with your own handicapping, be sure to check out PickCenter.
[h=2]ATS and over/under picks[/h]Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. All times are ET.
[h=2]No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats[/h]9:15 p.m.
Current total: 150.5
PickCenter consensus: 57 percent pick North Carolina to cover
BPI: North Carolina has 50.1 percent chance of winning
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Tuley: I've been on Villanova the past two games after seeing how the Wildcats really started clicking on offense to go with their vaunted defense. In fact, Villanova is shooting 58 percent from the field, tops of any team entering the title games since the field expanded in 1985. That was bolstered by hitting 71.4 percent against Oklahoma, second only to when Villanova hit 78.6 percent against Georgetown in its 1985 title game upset.
This team is historically hot and capable of matching North Carolina score for score. The key will be in keeping the Tar Heels' talented frontline of Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks off the offensive boards for easy putbacks. A lot of that will fall to Nova's Daniel Ochefu, who has been up to the task so far even when the Wildcats go to a four-guard lineup.
The NCAA Vegas rankings that we're apart of here at ESPN Chalk have North Carolina as 2.5 points better than Villanova, so it's right around the current spread (though if we upgrade the Wildcats a little more for Saturday's record-setting rout, we could argue the line should be lower). With both Final Four games going over the closing totals and all the talk about the shooting atmosphere at NRG Stadium seeming to disappear, I'm liking the under in the title game, as we're no longer seeing a depressed total. While both teams shot well on Saturday, there were times when shots were way off and -- again, we're hoping against the teams, especially North Carolina, getting a lot of layups -- we could see the outside shooting going cold for stretches and this game having a hard time to get to 150.5.
ATS pick: Villanova (lean to under 150.5)
Lange: Incredible offensive efficiency has been the storyline throughout the tournament for Villanova and UNC -- and both teams have averaged an identical (and remarkable) 1.31 points per possession in the five games leading up to tonight's championship. It's resulted in a lot of comfortable, wins with only Villanova's 64-59 Elite Eight victory over Kansas decided by fewer than double-digit points.
I think the Wildcats' run to the title game has been more impressive as Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma were all power rated among the top 15 nationally and seeded No. 3 or higher. North Carolina has had an easier go of it by drawing no opponent better than a No. 5 seed. The Tar Heels have also had it easy in terms of opposing defenses. Indiana, Notre Dame and Syracuse do not boast elite-level stop units. It shouldn't be a deal breaker for bettors looking to back North Carolina, but I think Villanova has the capabilities to be the first opponent to offer some defensive resistance and perhaps knock the Tar Heels out of rhythm -- something that has yet to occur.
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</article>The concern, however, is the size factor as Daniel Ochefu (6-foot-11) is the only player in the Wildcats' rotation taller than 6-7. UNC has obviously made a living in the paint and on the offensive glass with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.
In the end, the current side and total are in pretty good spots. There are likely better opportunities for value by utilizing in-game wagering or a halftime bet. As I said prior to Villanova's game against Oklahoma, I'm a big fan of the Wildcats' ability to win different types of games: slow, fast, high-scoring or low-scoring. At +3, I would be interested in the underdog.
ATS pick: Lean Villanova
