UFC Fight Night 86 - Sunday 4/10 - Info / Predictions / Odds / Chatter

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I put together these threads when I was posting across the street ... Time for a change so I will now bring these to The RX ...

I will add info as it becomes available throughout the week ... Feel free to talk it up and add whatever info




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UFC Fight Night 86 - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia
Sunday, April 10, 2016




Who's up for some mid-morning/afternoon UFC? That's what the UFC is serving up on Sunday, April 10th at the Arena Zagreb in Zagreb, Croatia. The main event is a big heavyweight showdown between former champion Junior dos Santos and surging contender Ben Rothwell. If you were to book this fight 4 years ago, JDS would have been both the reigning champion, as well as a massive favorite. Now? The betting lines are close to even, which also is a huge credit to Rothwell's improvements over the years after the infamous Mark Hunt fight.

UFC Zagreb is filled with heavyweight bouts, of which 4 of the 5 occupy the top main card slots. The co-main event was originally supposed to feature Ruslan Magomedov against Gabriel Gonzaga, but a Magomedov injury changed things up, and now Derrick Lewis will travel to Europe to take on the former UFC title challenger.



Here's the full bout order for next Sunday ...


Main Card (FS1, 2 PM ET/11 AM PT)


Junior dos Santos vs. Ben Rothwell
Derrick Lewis vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou
Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
Jan Blachowicz vs. Igor Pokrajac
Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu


Preliminary Card (FS1, 12 PM ET/9 AM PT)


Zak Cummings vs. Nicolas Dalby
Damir Hadzovic vs. Mairbek Taisumov
Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez
Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak


Preliminary Card (Fight Pass, 10:30 AM ET/7:30 AM PT)


Lucas Martins vs. Robert Whiteford
Cyril Asker vs. Jared Cannonier
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Bojan Velickovic
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 Newcomer Breakdown: Filip Pejic

Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters.



Filip “Nitro” Pejic
Hometown: Zagreb, Croatia
Age: 23
Height: 5’11”
Reach: N/A
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Camp: Olimp Ban Team
Career Record: 10-1
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None



Background

The Zagreb native will make his UFC debut in his hometown. He trains at Olimp Ban Team out of Zagreb and has been fighting professionally for the better part of five years. All but one of his ten career wins has come inside the distance.

Strengths



  • Very long for the weight class
  • Good hands within range
  • Does his best work when counterstriking
  • Creative guard off his back


Weaknesses



  • Wild striker from range
  • Poor wrestler
  • Can be put on his back rather easily by opponent
  • While active off his back, rarely threatens with submission attempts



Matchup with Damian Stasiak
Contrast in style a a major theme of this all-European clash. Pejic is the younger, higher ceiling fighter while Stasiak is the more experienced, grappling focused bantamweight. Pejic is the much longer fighter at nearly 6 feet tall; he’s one of the tallest fighters in the division. He will work to strike in combination, but he’s rather wild so his decent output is rather nullified. In this fight, I see a significant advantage for the Polish fighter in the grappling. Pejic has some of the worst takedown defense in the division, while Stasiak is a capable wrestler. In previous fights, Stasiak has shown solid top control and decent ground and pound. I expect a majority of the fight to take place with Pejic put on his back by Stasiak. I’m not sure if we’ll see a finish, but the result should at least be clear if it goes to the judges’ scorecards.


UFC Ceiling

Filip Pejic has racked up a decent amount of wins on the European regional circuit, but is still very green. He’s got the length and size to compete in the organization. He’s not a bad athlete with decent output, but his skill set is very much imbalanced. In the UFC, fighters need to be able to grapple in order to have success. Pejic’s inability to defend takedowns is a real concern and it’s hard to see him improve to stick around in the UFC. With a couple more years of experience, perhaps he will get another chance in the organization, but as currently stands it’s tough to see him sticking around.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 Newcomer Breakdown: Cyril Asker


Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters.



Cyril “Silverback” Asker
Hometown: Avignon, France
Age: 30
Height: 6’2”
Reach:
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Camp: Bushido Academie
Career Record: 7-1
Key Wins: Ruan Potts
Key Losses: None



Background
The former EFC Africa Heavyweight Champion has only been competing professionally for four years. Asker holds a BJJ purple belt with five of his seven wins coming by finish.

Strengths



  • Decent boxing fundamentals
  • Above average offensive wrestler
  • Times takedowns well


Weaknesses



  • Undersized heavyweight
  • Lacks volume in his strikes
  • Poor head movement
  • Doesn’t fight well against aggressive opponents
  • Moves forward without moving his head
  • Can be pushed against the cage
  • Had problems with poor competition



Match-up against Jared Cannonier
Cyril Asker will have the odds against him in his UFC debut against American Jared Cannonier. Asker holds a wrestling advantage in this bout, but will struggle against the much better striker. Asker does a poor job moving his head and I expect Cannonier to take advantage by teeing off against his French opponent. Once Asker gets hit, he stops moving and Cannonier will have ample opportunities to finish the fight. Cannonier is too good of an athlete to be taken down repeatedly in this fight where Asker would have the advantage. I expect Cannonier to control the striking from start to finish in this fight scoring a knockout finish midway through the first round.


UFC Ceiling

The UFC has begun raiding EFA in South Africa as it continues to expand its global footprint. Unfortunately success in the UFC has come few and far between for veterans of the EFA promotion. While they have looked good against inferior competition in EFA, they have looked out of depth in the UFC. Asker is another example of this. He’s an undersized heavyweight that simply isn’t a good enough athlete or wrestler to control opponents on the ground. His stand up is even worse than his grappling game. It’s difficult to see Asker having much success in the UFC. The more likely result will be his opponents scoring highlight reel wins over him.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 Weigh-In Show will be on Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT on Fox Sports 1
 

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Jon Anik and Brian Stann will be calling Sunday’s Fights.

Studio analysts will be Frank Mir and Tyron Woodley
 

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Junior dos Santos vs. Ben Rothwell

Records: Dos Santos (17-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC), Rothwell (36-9 MMA, 6-3 UFC)
Past five: Dos Santos 2-3, Rothwell 4-1
Division: Heavyweight
Rankings: Rothwell No. 4, Dos Santos No. 9
Odds (as of 04/04/16): Rothwell -105, Dos Santos -125




Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis

Records: Gonzaga (17-10 MMA, 12-9 UFC), Lewis (14-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Past five: Gonzaga 2-3, Lewis 3-2
Division: Heavyweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 04/04/16): Lewis -185, Gonzaga +160




Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou

Records: Blaydes (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC), Ngannou (6-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
Past five: Blaydes 5-0, Ngannou 5-0
Division: Heavyweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 04/04/16): TBA




Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura

Records: Johnson (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC), Tybura (13-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC)
Past five: Johnson 4-1, Tybura 4-1
Division: Heavyweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 04/04/16): TBA




Jan Blachowicz vs. Igor Pokrajac

Records: Blachowicz (18-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC), Pokrajac (25-12 MMA, 4-7 UFC)
Past five: Blachowicz 3-2, Pokrajac 3-2
Division: Light heavyweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 04/04/16): TBA




Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu

Records: Moroz (6-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC), Stanciu (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC)
Past five: Moroz 4-1, Stanciu 5-0
Division: Women’s strawweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 04/04/16): TBA
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 predictions: Zagreb Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
From Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




145 lbs.: Robert Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins

Robert Whiteford (12-3) opened his UFC career with a fight against Judo expert Jim Hettes, suffering a second-round submission finish. Wins over Daniel Pineda and Paul Redmond followed before he ran afoul of the resurgent Darren Elkins in October.


He stands three inches shorter than Lucas Martins (15-3) at 5’9."


Following a submission to strikes against Edson Barboza in his UFC debut, Martins rattled off three straight victories, one each at Lightweight, Bantamweight and Featherweight. He’s since lost two straight, one to the aforementioned Elkins and one to blue-chip prospect Mirsad Bektic.




He’s knocked out 11 opponents and submitted another three.


Even with his recent struggles, it’s been fun to watch Martins go from the awkward, hittable mess that barely scraped by Jeremy Larsen to a legitimately dangerous striker with solid takedown defense. There’s no shame in losing to Elkins, who’s on a roll and also beat Whiteford, or to Bektic, who’s probably the division’s best prospect.


Against Whiteford, the Brazilian’s power and durability should pay dividends. He’s certainly capable of forcing the Scot to stand with him and ought to win the ensuing slugfest. Expect an entertaining round or two before "Mineiro" drops the hammer.


Prediction: Martins by second-round technical




265 lbs.: Cyril Asker vs. Jared Cannonier

France’s Cyril Asker (7-1) joins UFC on a five-fight win streak, the latter three in South Africa’s EFC promotion. His most recent bout saw him oust champion Andrew van Zyl with a guillotine choke, his fifth first-round finish.


"Silverback" has knocked out three and submitted two opponents.


Jared Cannonier (7-1) made his promotional debut in Jan. 2015, suffering a first-round knockout to Shawn Jordan. He was set to make a second Octagon appearance in Aug. 2015 against Jonathan Wilson, only to suffer a broken rib in training.


His six finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.


Asker’s big and has a decent grasp of boxing, but his speed, diversity, and wrestling are all lacking. Cannonier has the athletic edge and I’m not convinced Asker can take his power. Though Asker has a decent right hand and these are heavyweights, I’m fairly confident Cannonier takes it.


In this matchup of "Silverback" vs. "Killa Gorilla," the rhymes have it. Cannonier catches him in an exchange sometime in the first round.


Prediction: Cannonier defeats Asker via first-round technical knockout




185 lbs.: Bojan Velickovic vs. Alessio Di Chirico

Bojan Velickovic (13-3), training out of the Elevation Fight Team alongside T.J. Dillashaw and others, enters UFC having won four straight since a loss to Ultimate Fighter 17 competitor Gilbert Smith. In January, "Serbian Steel" picked up the RFA Welterweight title with a third-round guillotine of Benjamin Smith.


Eight of his wins have come by submission, five of them via form of choke.


Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico (9-0) tore through the local circuit, stopping his first five opponents in one round each and the sixth under a minute into the second round. He’s since moved on to the European scene and picked up another three wins in Poland and the Czech Republic.


He’s knocked out and submitted four opponents apiece.


This should be interesting, at the very least. This is a well-matched clash between decent prospects, both of whom have somewhat similar styles. I’m leaning towards Velickovic, although I have some concerns about the longtime welterweight’s overpowering style making the jump to 185 pounds.


Neither man has a clear edge in the striking or wrestling department, but Velockovic showed some very solid takedown reversals against Smith that should allow him to bring his crushing top game to bear. Combine that with his superior gym and experience against quality opposition and you have the recipe for either a mid-fight sub or competitive decision for the big Serb.

Prediction: Velickovic via unanimous decision
 

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UFC Fight Night Predictions
From Cage Rank




Dos Santos - KO Round 3
Gonzaga - Submission Round 2
Blachowicz - Decision
Dalby - Decision
Tybura - Submission Round 2
Velickovic - Submission Round 2
Pejic - KO Round 3
Taisumov - Submission Round 2
Cannonier - Submission Round 2
Perez - KO Round 3
Martins - KO Round 3
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 Newcomer Breakdown: Damir Hadzovic



Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters.



Damir “The Bosnian Bomber” Hadzovic
Hometown: Gorazde, Bosnia
Age: 29
Height: 6’0”
Reach: N/A
Weight Class: Lightweight
Camp: Rumble Sports
Career Record: 10-2
Key Wins: John Maguire
Key Losses: Krzystof Jotko, Andreas Stahl



Background
The Bosnian fighter has a pretty decent competitive pedigree fighting as high as middleweight against the likes of Krzystof Jotko. His biggest win to date is over former UFC fighter John Maguire. He’s fought in some of the top organizations in Europe including Cage Warriors and Venator FC. He enters the UFC on a six fight winning streak.


Strengths



  • Decent striking from range
  • Snapping lower leg kicks
  • Really good footwork
  • Powerful knees in the clinch
  • Uses elbows when in top control to inflict maximum damage
  • Fights better as the fight wears on


Weaknesses



  • Lacks volume in his striking
  • Can be pushed back by active strikers
  • Too comfortable striking from range
  • Striking technique needs improvement



Matchup against Mairbek Taisumov
Perhaps the most underrated fight on the entire card as Bosnian Damir Hadzovic takes on Chechnya’s Mairbek Taisumov. Hadzovic is big for the weight class. He combines that physicality with good footwork, a decent kickboxing approach, and excellent work in the clinch. He has decent fundamentals which, in my mind, make him UFC ready. Unfortunately for Hadzovic, he’s facing a buzz saw in Taisumov. While I think Hadzovic is capable of having some success on the feet, the difference in this fight comes down to creativity. Taisumov has a lot more variety in his striking particularly at range. In a fight where Taisumov would prefer to fight at range, he’s the more accurate, more creative striker and will land regularly from the outside. Hadzovic needs to get the fight to the clinch to the win and I don’t see that happening against a strong, disciplined Taisumov. Hadzovic should have some success in the UFC, but this is a very difficult introduction into the promotion. Look for Taisumov to win a clear decision.


UFC Ceiling

The Bosnian Bomber enters the UFC with a decent pedigree having fought a handful of current and former UFC fighters. He’s long for the weight class with a decent stand up game. He’s a pretty resilient fighter that has never been finished and tends to fight better as the fight goes longer. Both of those are traits that tend to see fighters outperform their skill sets. In order to have a lengthy career in the organization, he needs to further refine his technique in the standup and show significant development in the wrestling department. If he’s unable to do that, expect him to be utilized as a decent action fighter capable of winning against lower level competition in spectacular fashion.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86: Rothwell vs. dos Santos, preview and predictions
by Riley Kontek - Fansided






Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos

In the main event, Ben Rothwell looks to punch his ticket to a potential UFC Heavyweight Championship title shot when he takes on former champion Junior dos Santos. Not long ago, I would have taken dos Santos in a heartbeat and not thought twice about it. Now, he has slowed considerably, while Rothwell has gotten a lot better. The fights with Cain Velasquez have really taken a lot out of dos Santos and he hasn’t looked the same, even in victory. Rothwell has won four fights in a row, knocking out Brandon Vera and Alistair Overeem, while submitting Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett. Rothwell will finish dos Santos and clinch a title shot at the winner of Fabricio Werdum-Stipe Miocic.



Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis

In the co-main event, heavyweights square off, as long-time UFC vet Gabriel Gonzaga takes on the beastly Derrick Lewis. Gonzaga is a BJJ black belt that has improved his striking, but I would assume a ground battle is where he’d want to engage with Lewis. Lewis is a physical specimen with big time power, especially on the feet. He also has ruthless ground-and-pound, where he can knock your lights out. Gonzaga can easily submit Lewis if he gets him down, but I think Lewis will land a haymaker that puts Gonzaga away.



Francis Ngannou vs. Curtis Blaydes

In yet another heavyweight bout, Francis Ngannou looks to continue building his reputation in his sophomore outing, when he takes on late notice prospect Curtis Blaydes. Ngannou is a big, physical stud with strength that is hard to match. He showed solid takedown defense in downing Luiz Henrique, as well as lethal, powerful striking that can end a bout in a hurry. Blaydes is a wrestler with horrifying ground-and-pound. His athleticism and explosiveness are hard to deal with, especially when he achieves the takedown. Ngannou needs to land early and finish Blaydes, or else he’s in big trouble. Blaydes achieves the takedown and wears Ngannou out until he finishes late.



Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura

The heavyweights look to duke it out in the next bout, as Polish prospect Marcin Tybura makes his debut against rugged big boy Timothy Johnson. Tybura has long been a top prospect in the heavyweight division, as the former M-1 champion has dominated opponents with his suffocating ground game. From the top position, he can pound you out with his sledgehammer fists or finish you with his high-level submissions. As for Johnson, he is a wrestler that thrives when he can get the finish while he has his cardio. Tybura has had success fighting guys like Johnson in the past. That’s why I think Tybura makes a successful debut, though Johnson puts up a strong fight.



Igor Pokrajac vs. Jan Blachowicz

Croatian light heavyweight Igor Pokrajac returns to the UFC after a stint in the regional scene and looks to make the most of his home advantage against Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz has his back against the wall, as he has fallen to Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson in his last two bouts. Those decision losses followed an impressive debut, where he completely trashed Ilir Latifi with strikes. As for Pokrajac, he is a striker as well, which should make this matchup fun. Since his ousting from the UFC, which saw him go on a five-fight winless streak, he has picked up three wins in the regional circuit, all of which come via finish. This will be a rude re-welcoming to the Octagon, though, as Blachowicz downs the Croat with strikes.



Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu

Kicking off the main card are the strawweights. Ukraine’s Maryna Moroz looks to give Romanian Cristina Stanciu a not-so-warm welcome to UFC. Stanciu is a 22-year-0ld prospect that has been trashing opponents left and right in Romania. She has shown great strength on the ground, where Moroz is also strong. The difference is that Moroz has fought tougher competition. But I like Stanciu’s potential and smell an upset brewing. I will take Stanciu in the upset, which I am sure will be an unpopular decision.



Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings

The featured prelim will take place in the welterweight division, as Denmark’s Nicolas Dalby takes on late replacement Zak Cummings. Dalby will be the striker to Cummings wrestler. Dalby is a very powerful, precise striker that can hurt you quickly and accumulate damage. Cummings is rugged and aggressive, looking to constantly push forward and achieve the takedown. Can he do that against Dalby? My guess is he locks him up in the clinch a few times, but Dalby does enough damage on the feet to walk away the winner.



Mairbek Taisumov vs. Damir Hadzovic

Known as “The Bosnian Bomber,” Bosnian-Dane Damir Hadzovic has a tall task in his UFC debut when he takes on top-40 lightweight Mairbek Taisumov. Hadzovic dives into the deep end right away, as Taisumov has been a high-level UFC guy since entering the company in 2014. In Taisumov’s last three fights, he has knocked out Alan Patrick, Tony Christodoulou and Marcin Bandel. He is a physical brute and will look to bully Hadzovic. Hadzovic is a finisher too, and has earned big wins over Martin Delaney and John Maguire. Hadzovic is definitely an intriguing prospect, but Taisumov should be able to score a convincing win here.



Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Britain’s Ian Entwistle, but he makes his return in the next bout when he takes on fellow bantamweight Alejandro Perez of Mexico. Entwistle is a submission specialist, who prefers the leg lock attack on the ground. It leaves him open to ground-and-pound, but he does have solid proficiency when it comes to finishing those leg locks. Perez is an athletic striker who diversifies his attack on the feet. His takedown defense will need to be on high alert, as his grappling is not on the level of that of Entwistle. The Brit takes the win, possibly by submission.



Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak

Fellow Europeans will square off in the next fight, as Croatian Filip Pejic defends his home turf against Poland’s Damian Stasiak. Pejic has fought a dozen times, falling just once. The 23-year-old has finished most of his fights by knockout, though he has not really fought anybody of much note. Stasiak has not fought a high level of competition either, but does have a UFC fight under his belt. In it, he lost a decision in unimpressive fashion to Yaotzin Meza. Stasiak is more of a submission guy, so this will be a striker vs. grappler bout. I will give Pejic the win here with the home crowd at his back.



Robert Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins

Scottish featherweight Robert Whiteford returns to the Octagon in the next bout. He will face the Brazilian Lucas Martins. This is a grappler vs. striker fight, straight up. Whiteford is a judo fighter that has been running with American Top Team in recent times. He is vastly improved, though a setback to Darren Elkins kind of stymied the momentum he’s built. Martins is a muay Thai stylist. He has struggled against grapplers, especially ones that can achieve the takedown. I think Whiteford can get the takedown in this fight, controlling Martins to a submission or decision.



Jared Cannonier vs. Cyril Asker

The heavyweights will take to the cage next, as France’s Cyril Asker makes his UFC debut against Alaskan Jared Cannonier. Cannonier is a smaller heavyweight who has already contemplated a move to light heavyweight. He has finished all but one of his wins, but his debut against Shawn Jordan was less than stellar. Asker is a world-traveled heavyweight that has fought everywhere from South Africa to Germany to Finland. He is a finisher as well, especially in the first round, and won a submission in the first frame over UFC vet Ruan Potts. Cannonier has a lot to prove here, but I don’t think he will get the win. Asker to score another first-round victory.




Bojan Velickovic vs. Alessio di Chirico

The welterweights will contest the first fight of the night as Serbia’s Bojan Velickovic and Italy’s Alessio di Chirico, both making their official UFC debuts, square off. Velickovic first appeared on TUF, where he failed to make it past the elimination round. Since then, he has won five of six bouts outside the company, and took the RFA title in a win over Ben Smith. As for di Chirico, he is undefeated at 9-0, though he has not really faced any great competition. He has finished all but one fight, while Velickovic as gone the distance just five times in 15 outings (he lost three of the decisions). These finishers will both throw down, but I expect Velickovic to edge di Chirico in what should be a thriller.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 Predictions
from Combat Press




Emma Challands’ Pick's

dos Santos
Lewis
Blaydes
Tybura
Blachowicz
Moroz
Dalby
Hadzovic
Entwistle
Pejic
Whiteford
Asker
Velickovic


Bryan Henderson’s Pick's

Rothwell
Gonzaga
Blaydes
Tybura
Blachowicz
Moroz
Cummings
Hadzovic
Entwistle
Pejic
Whiteford
Asker
Velickovic
 

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Predictions for UFC Fight Night
from The MMA Way




Mark's Picks

Rothwell - TKO Round 2
Lewis - TKO Round 1
Tybura - Decision
Ngannou - TKO Round 1
Blachowicz - Decision
Cummings - Decision
Taisumov - Decision
Entwistle - Decision
Pejic - Decision
Martins - Decision
Cannonier - Decision
Velickovic - TKO Round 2
Stanciu - Decision


James Picks

dos Santos - TKO Round 2
Lewis - TKO Round 1
Tybura - Submission Round 2
Ngannou - TKO Round 2
Blachowicz - TKO Round 2
Cummings - Decision
Taisumov - Decision
Entwistle - Submission Round 1
Pejic - TKO Round 2
Martins - Decision
Cannonier - Decision
Velickovic - Submission Round 2
Moroz - Decision
 

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MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 2pm ET)

Ben Rothwell +110
Junior Dos Santos -150
Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100


Gabriel Gonzaga +125
Derrick Lewis -165
Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -170


Francis Ngannou +100
Curtis Blaydes -140
Over 1.5 -125
Under 1.5 -115


Timothy Johnson +150
Marcin Tybura -190
Over 1.5 -165
Under 1.5 +125


Igor Pokrajac +265
Jan Blachowicz -385
Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120


Cristina Stanciu +180
Maryna Moroz -260
Over 1.5 -165
Under 1.5 +125


PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, Noon ET)

Zak Cummings +135
Nicolas Dalby -175
Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165


Damir Hadzovic +200
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140


Alejandro Perez -120
Ian Entwistle -120
Over 1.5 +145
Under 1.5 -185


Filip Pejic +100
Damian Stasiak -140
Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140


PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 10:30 a.m. ET)

Robert Whiteford +110
Lucas Martins -150
Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110


Cyril Asker +150
Jared Cannonier -190
Over 1.5 -135
Under 1.5 -105


Alessio Di Chirico +130
Bojan Velickovic -170
Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
 

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4 Fights to Watch
from Vinny Craig - MMA Latest News




Robert Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins

One of the most exciting fights of the night is the featured prelim on UFC Fight Pass when fFeatherweights Robert Whiteford (12-3 MMA; 2-2 UFC) and Lucas Martins (15-3; 3-3) square off.

Whiteford is a Scottish prospect that has given some exciting fights to Europe. He’s a winner of two of his last three fights after his last bout against a surging Darren Elkins at UFC Dublin. The loss succeeded two wins against Daniel Pineda (decision) at UFC 171 and Paul Redmond (KO) at UFC Glasgow in his home country of Scotland. ‘The Hammer’ is a strong judoka and muay-thai practitioner, two things he uses well in sequence with each other to wins his fights.

Martins has hit a rough patch as he lost two in a row, both in his native Brazil. After winning his first 12 fights outside of the UFC, the call every professional MMA fighter wants came through for a fight at UFC on FX 7. He would lose his first fight as he got submitted by punches to Edson Barboza. His next three were all stoppage wins as he beat Jeremy Larson, Junior Hernandez, and Alex White. As like his opponent, the streak ended with two losses in a row Darren Elkins and Mirsad Bektic.




Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings

One of the most exciting European prospects in Nicolas Dalby (14-0-1; 1-0-1) gets a spotlight position as the preliminary card feature bout against Zak Cummings (18-4; 3-1). The original fight was Dalby against Bartosz Fabinski, but Fabinski was removed from the card due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by Cummings.

Dalby has become an all-around mixed martial artist. He joined the UFC on a 13-fight win streak, winning two different organizations’ belts. He got his first fight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Alves. He showed his whole skill set with good striking supplemented by offensive and defensive grappling to get a split-decision. His next fight was closer to home in Dublin against Darren Till. Dalby was down on the scorecards, down two round to none going into the third. He landed 61 of his 84 Significant Strikes and 78 of his 111 total strikes in the third round to force a 10-8 round. The fight went to a draw, keeping both of the fighters undefeated records intact.

Cummings was on The Ultimate Fighter season 17 where he was picked by Team Sonnen. He would lose his first fight in the house to eventual semifinalist Dylan Andrews by decision. Cummings would make it to the UFC on his own and show his worth two wins in a row including a D’Arce submission over in his debut. He had a setback against talented grappler Gunnar Nelson when he was submitted to a Rear-Naked choke. He came back at UFC on Fox 16 with a TKO win over Dominique Steele 43 seconds into the fight. Cummings doesn’t look to have an advantage anywhere in the fight, but leave that up to Dan Tom and his breakdowns for stuff like that.




Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis

We jump all the way to the co-main event as the Heavyweight version of grappler vs. striker is evident. Gabriel Gonzaga (17-10; 12-9) and Derrick Lewis (14-4, 1 NC; 5-2) meet in an interesting style bout. Gonzaga was originally supposed to face Ruslan Magomedov before Magomedov pulled out due to injury. Lewis dropped out of his bout against Roy Nelson at UFC 197 to face Gonzaga.

Gonzaga is a former title challenger at UFC 74 where he lost by third round TKO. He won four fights in a row to get there, the last being the iconic head kick KO of Mirko Cro Cop in the main event of UFC 70. After the title loss, Gonzaga could never quite get it going after that with a 6-7 record since then. Lately, he’s lost 3 of his last 4 including the rematch with Cro Cop. He did pick up a win in his last fight as the featured prelim at TUF 22 Finale against Konstantin Erokhin. Gonzaga has 11 submission attempts in the UFC, good for third in the active division. He also has 23 career takedowns, second to only former champion Cain Velasquez with 33.

Lewis, aka ‘The Black Beast’, is always a fun watch. Every one of his UFC fights has ended with a KO/TKO both in victory defeat. He has two wins in a row, both by TKO, over Viktor Pesta and Damien Grabowski. In 14 career victories, Lewis has a 100% finish rate with 13 KO/TKO and 1 submission. Lewis is third all-time with an average fight time of just over five minutes (5:10).




Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos

The main event is the last of four Heavyweight fights to end the night. Ben Rothwell (36-9; 6-3) and Junior dos Santos (17-4; 11-3) meet to keep relevant in the Heavyweight division.

Rothwell has figured it out as of late. He has won his last four fights with two by TKO/KO and two by submission. The savvy veteran has fought the “who’s who” in and out of the UFC with fights against Tim Sylvia, Roy Nelson, Cain Velasquez, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. After starting his UFC time with alternate wins and losses, his TKO win over Overeem changed the scope of things. His last two wins have come by his patented go-go choke which he used to beat Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett. Rothwell has picked up his striking output lately with 4.35 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute(SLpM) in his last four compared to 2.85 SLpM in his career.

Dos Santos is the former Heavyweight champion; He was a winner of in each of his first seven fights to earn a title shot against Cain Velasquez at UFC on Fox 1. He would need just 66 seconds to finish the champ by KO and become the champion himself. Dos Santos defended the belt against Frank Mir at UFC 146 with a second round TKO. The UFC gave Velasquez another shot at UFC 155 where dos Santos was outclassed for five rounds. He’s had another shot at Velasquez since then with the same outcome at UFC 166. In his last bout, he lost to someone not named Cain Velasquez for the first time in eight years and 15 fights. With his 12 knockdowns and 730 career Significant Strikes, dos Santos leads the Heavyweight division all time in both.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 pre-fight facts




Dos Santos has alternated wins and losses over his past six UFC appearances.

Dos Santos has suffered both of his UFC stoppage losses by knockout.


Dos Santos’ eight knockout victories in UFC heavyweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Cain Velasquez (nine) and Andrei Arlovski (nine).

Dos Santos’ 12 knockdowns landed in UFC heavyweight competition are the most in divisional history and tied for fifth overall in company history.

Dos Santos and Stipe Miocic combined for 222 significant strikes landed at UFC on FOX 13, a single-fight UFC heavyweight record.

Dos Santos defends 80.5 percent of all opponent takedown attempts in UFC heavyweight competition, the second highest rate in divisional history behind Arlovski (87.5 percent).

Rothwell has earned 33 of his 36 career victories by stoppage. That includes his past five wins under the UFC banner.

Rothwell’s four-fight stoppage streak in UFC competition is second longest among active fighters behind middleweight champ Luke Rockhold (five).

Rothwell’s four-fight UFC winning streak in heavyweight competition is the second longest active streak in the division behind Fabricio Werdum (six).

Rothwell enters the event on his on his first four-fight winning streak since 2006. He’d never won consecutive fights under the UFC banner prior to his current run.



Co-main event


Derrick Lewis (14-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC) makes his eighth UFC heavyweight appearance since 2014, the most in the division. No heavyweight has more than four bouts in that timeframe.

Lewis has earned 13 of his 14 career victories by knockout. That includes all five of his wins under the UFC banner.

Lewis’ five knockout victories in UFC heavyweight competition since 2014 are the most in the division.

Lewis is the only fighter in UFC history to have his first seven appearances end in a knockout.

Gabriel Gonzaga (17-10 MMA, 12-9 UFC) competes in his 22nd UFC heavyweight bout, the second most appearances in divisional history behind Frank Mir (27).

Gonzaga is 5-4 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in January 2012.

Gonzaga’s 12 victories in UFC heavyweight competition are third most in divisional history behind Mir (16) and Arlovski (14).

Gonzaga’s 11 stoppage victories in UFC heavyweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Mir (13).

Gonzaga’s 17-second knockout of Dave Herman at UFC 162 is tied for the third-fastest knockout in UFC heavyweight history.

Gonzaga’s 23 takedowns landed in UFC heavyweight competition are tied for fourth most in divisional history behind Velasquez (29), Randy Couture (25) and Cheick Kongo (24).

Gonzaga’s four submission victories in UFC heavyweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Mir (eight).

Gonzaga’s 11 submission attempts in UFC heavyweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Mir (21) and Stefan Struve (19).



Remaining main card



Francis Ngannou (6-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has earned all six of his career victories by stoppage.

Jan Blachowicz (18-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is one of two light heavyweights in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a body kick. He accomplished the feat against Ilir Latifi at UFC Fight Night 53.

Igor Pokrajac (28-12 MMA, 4-7 UFC), 37, is the oldest of the 26 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.

Pokrajac returns to the UFC for a second stint after he was released from the promotion following a December 2014 loss.

Pokrajac earned three consecutive victories outside the UFC to earn a second stint with the promotion.

Pokrajac is 0-4 with one no-contest in his past five UFC appearances. He hasn’t earned an octagon victory since May 2012.

Pokrajac was outlanded by 57 significant strikes when he faced Fabio Maldonado at UFC on FUEL TV 3, but still won a decision. That’s the second largest disparity in UFC history for a fighter to win a decision.

Cristina Stanciu (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC), 21, is the youngest of the 26 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.



Preliminary card


Zak Cummings (18-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has earned 14 of his 18 career victories by stoppage. That includes two of his three UFC victories.

Cummings is one of 13 fighters in UFC history to finish a fight via D’arce choke. He accomplished the feat against Ben Alloway at UFC Fight Night 27.

Mairbek Taisumov (24-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has earned 22 of his 24 career victories by stoppage. That includes three of his four victories under the UFC banner.

Taisumov’s three-fight stoppage streak in UFC lightweight competition is longest among active fighters in the division.

Ian Entwistle (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Dec. 13, 2014. The 484-day layoff is the longest of his nearly six-year career.

Entwistle has earned all of his career victories by first-round stoppage.

Lucas Martins (15-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC) is one of five fighters in UFC history to earn victories in three different weight classes. Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, George Roop and Manny Gamburyan also accomplished the feat.

Martins is the only fighter in UFC history to earn victories in three different weight classes in consecutive fights. He’s also the only fighter to earn stoppage victories in three different divisions.

Martins’ submission win over Junior Hernandez at the 1:10 mark of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night 28 stands as the second fastest submission by a debuting UFC bantamweight behind Yuta Sasaki’s win at UFC Fight Night 48.
 

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UFC Fight Night 86 predictions: Zagreb FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




170 lbs.: Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings

Sweden’s Nicolas Dalby (14-0-1) has been nothing but entertaining in his two-fight UFC career, beginning with a gritty split decision over Brazilian knockout artist Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. In October, he threw down with top British prospect Darren Till and battled through a knockdown to force a draw and earn Fight of the Night in the process.

"Sharpshooter" has knocked out four opponents and submitted another three.

Zak Cummings' (18-4) run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17 came to an end in the Round of 16 with a decision loss to Dylan Andrews. He’s gone 3-1 in UFC itself, including an upset decision over Yan Cabral and 43-second knockout of Dominique Steele in July 2015.


He replaces the injured Bartosz Fabinski on one month’s notice.

In many ways, Dalby reminds me of Martin Kampmann. He’s capable on the feet, but doesn’t have much stopping power and can struggle with bigger hitters. One thing he lacks that Kampmann relied heavily on, however, is a powerful offensive and defensive wrestling game.

Hence the reason I’m picking Cummings.

Cummings is huge for the weight class and is a very capable grappler when not dealing with beasts like Gunnar Nelson. Expect him to edge a decision through effective top control.

Prediction: Cummings via unanimous decision




155 lbs.: Mairbek Taisumov vs. Damir Hadzovic

Mairbek Taisumov's (24-5) one-sided loss to Michel Prazeres in 2014 has given way to three straight knockouts, his head kick finish of Alan Patrick in May 2015 earning him "Performance of the Night." "Beckan" was set to take a step up against Beneil Dariush in January, only for Darush to suffer an injury and Taisumov to run into visa issues.

He has just one decision victory in nine years as a professional.

Damir Hadzovic (10-2) has won six straight since a 2012 loss to current UFC middleweight Krzysztof Jotko, four of them via stoppage. Training alongside Nicolas Dalby, Hadzovic has stopped eight opponents overall with five knockouts.

"The Bosnian Bomber" stands three inches taller than Taisumov at 6’0."

I picked Taisumov to beat Dariush and Wade, so no prize for guessing what I think of Hadzovic’s chances. The Bosnian is a decent, slow-starting striker, but lacks Taisumov’s speed, power, and kicking prowess. "Beckan" will also have a considerable edge in wrestling and can do major damage from top position.

To win this fight, Hadzovic would have to keep Taisumov at range and try to exhaust him. Taisumov just hits too damn hard for that to work, unfortunately. The Chechen chews him up with kicks before putting him down late in the first.

Prediction: Taisumov via first-round technical knockout




135 lbs.: Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez

Ian Entwistle's (9-2) relentless pursuit of submissions came back to bite him in the UFC debut, where he held fast to a heel hook attempt and, in doing so, allowed Daniel Hooker to beat him senseless with elbows. "Enty" returned to Bantamweight and had a bit more success with his leglocks against Anthony Birchak, whom he tapped in 64 seconds.

He has never gone past the first round as an amateur or a professional, scoring seven submissions.

Mexico’s Alejandro Perez (16-6) took home gold on the inaugural TUF: "Latin America" with a decision over teammate Jose Alberto Quinones. He suffered a quick submission loss to Patrick Williams his next time out, but rebounded with an injury stoppage of Scott Jorgensen in Nov. 2015.

He will give up two inches of height to the 5’8" Entwistle.

Entwistle fights are annoying to pick because he either wins big or loses big -- there are no in-betweens. Either he scores an immediate sub or gets smashed to pieces in the process. This fight should be no different, as Perez is by far the better striker and has some decent grappling of his own.

Honestly, though, I think Entwistle catches him.

Perez, while very skilled and well-rounded, doesn’t have the top-tier submission defense he’d need to survive the early onslaught. Entwistle wraps up a heel hook sometime in the first two minutes.

Prediction: Entwistle via first-round submission




135 lbs.: Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak

Filip Pejic (10-1) has gone 8-0-1 since a technical knockout loss in 2012, including a four-fight first-round knockout streak through 2013. Following a draw against Serbia’s Slobodan Maksimovic, he destroyed Zoltan Turai with soccer kicks 57 seconds into their Oct. 2015 showdown.

"Nitro" stands three inches taller than Damian Stasiak (8-3) at 5’11."

A five-fight win streak brought Poland’s Stasiak to UFC, where he debuted in Aug. 2015 in Krakow. There, he struggled with Yaotzin Meza’s grappling en route to a unanimous decision loss. He was originally set to face Erik Perez back in Nov. 2015 before withdrawing.

I watched Pejic’s draw with Maksimovic and came away with a distinct "meh" impression. He’s decent with his hands and decent off his back, but doesn’t throw very much and doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling. Stasiak, meanwhile, is every bit as capable on the feet and also has a decent grappling game to go along with it.
Seems pretty cut-and-dry to me.

Stasiak should have at least a slight edge everywhere the fight goes, plus the option of hitting a takedown if things get hairy. Expect a clear decision win for the Pole.

Prediction: Stasiak via unanimous decision
 

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Crazy stats ...


UFC's first show in Croatia features 5 (count 'em) heavyweight fights, 8 UFC debuts, and fighters from 13 countries.


Croatia, England, Poland, Scotland, Brazil, USA, Bosnia, Cameroon, Denmark, Mexico, Russia, Romania, & Ukraine.
 

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Fight Night 86
from The News Hub




Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos


Big Ben is putting a decent run together, and is putting big names away, most recently in January being the first person to submit Josh Barnett. On the other hand, the dos Santos that was icing opponents between UFC 90 and UFC 146 seems like a distant memory. Some bookies have Rothwell the 4/5 favourite, others favour dos Santos. Me, I'm on Big Ben.


Gabriel Gonzaga vs Derrick Lewis


Gonzaga was originally slated to face Ruslan Magomedov in this event and I’d have been on the Russian in a flash. He’s now up against Derrick Lewis who doesn’t have the win-streak Magomedov does, and while Gonzaga is definitely a step up in class for him, I’m backing him to make the grade.


Francis Ngannou vs Curtis Blaydes


Promotional newcomer, Blaydes is 5-0 and is facing 6-1 Francis Ngannou, who won his UFC debut by KO in December. It’s a fairly even fight on paper, but with Frenchman, Ngannou having the much shorter commute, I’m leaning his way.


Igor Pokrajac vs Jan Blachovicz


Blachowicz won his UFC debut against Illr Latifi, but has lost twice since, albeit against solid competition. Pokrajac got cut from the UFC losing 5 in a row (although 1 was overturned to a NC). He’s won three straight in local shows, and it’s worth noting that virtually all his career losses have been a LONG way from home. In European fights, Pokrajac wins and more often than not, finishes. The bookies have Blachovicz as a big favourite, so backing Pokrajac to win his UFC return looks like the value bet of the card.


Maryna Moroz vs Cristina Stanciu


Stanciu is entering the Octagon for the first time with a 5-0 record including three first round submissions in the last year. This is Moroz’ third fight for the promotion, and is coming off the back of her first loss. Prior to that she was 6-0, also mostly winning by early submission. I’m more likely to bet that the fight won’t go the distance than pick an actual winner here.
 

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UFC Fight Pass Spotlight: Whiteford vs Martins Breakdown
from Dan Tom - MMA Latest News



In a card full of international talents, UFC Fight Pass delivers a fireworks matchup for it’s featured bout between Rob “The Hammer” Whiteford and Lucas “Mineiro” Martins.
Whiteford will be looking to get back to his winning ways after having mixed success thus far in the UFC. With the Scottish Judoka using his skills to keep fights standing, Robert may have found himself a willing dance partner here in Martins. “Mineiro” stormed onto the scene as he is one of the few fighters in the UFC to hold victories in three different weight classes(bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight). Now coming off of two consecutive losses, the Brazilian may be fighting for more than just a win in this contest.

Starting off on the feet, both men carry different striking styles that should make for a fun and competitive affair. Wielding classic Chute Boxe stylings, Martins Muay Thai is very reminiscent of his camp and counterparts. Thai marching and feinting his way into range, Mineiro will utilize a left jab or hook to corral his opposition into his power side. Given the mirroring stance of his southpaw opponent, this approach could be very effective in setting up right crosses and powerful mid to high kicks. Martins accurate left hook could also be live here given Whiteford’s tendency to keep his lead right hand low.

That all said, “The Hammer” has some solid tools of his own that could see the light of day. Possessing natural knockout power and a durable chin, Whiteford has made serious strides in his striking technique since moving shop to American Top Team. The Scotsman’s demonstrated improvements in his head movement and footwork should serve him well, as I see those attributes being a key factor for his success. From managing the distance to creating angles, it is Rob’s natural counter & interception intuitions that make his punches work. Whiteford’s variating left cross-right hook combinations could find their mark especially well given Martins habit of keeping his head on center.

As far as ground games go, Whiteford should have a clear on-paper advantage over the Muay Thai stylist. Never the less, we have only see the young Martins once in the last 17-months which make progressions hard to forecast. The Brazilian has however made shown improvements to his counter wrestling. Displaying good balance in defending singles and even better defense from the cage, Whiteford will have to get crafty should he decide to ground his opposition. Wielding a variety of trips & throws from the clinch, it’s Robert’s underrated level-changing double-leg that may be most successful against the taller man.

Even if Whiteford fails on initial attempts, these engagements could prove useful in disrupting his opponents offense or even edging out tight rounds. Although Rob will have to mind Mineiro’s dangerous knees in close, the Brazilian displays slow hand retractions off clinch breaks that have cost him in the past. Considering that Whiteford shows solid hand fighting and natural inclinations to strike off the break, this could spell trouble for the taller Martins in tight quarters. I feel Mineiro’s best chances are at a distance where he can utilize his length and head kicks to dissuade Rob’s movement and possibly expose his low hands. Ultimately, I suspect Whiteford’s durable chin and knockout power will make the difference against an opponent who has been hit, hurt and dropped in 5 of his last 6 outings. Regardless of who you favor here, this is a firefight well worth your attention on Fight Pass.



Official Pick: Whiteford – Inside the distance




Preliminary Card Predictions



  • Dalby def. Cummmings
  • Entwistle def. Perez
  • Hadzovic def. Taisumov
  • Pejic def. Stasiak
  • Whiteford def. Martins
  • Asker def. Cannonier
  • Di Chirico def. Velickovic





Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Ian Entwistle
-Ben Rothwell
-Derrick Lewis


Low Tier Picks:


-Robert Whiteford
-Timothy Johnson
-Filip Pejic


Pieces for your parlay:


-Ian Entwistle
-Jan Blachowicz
-Nicolas Dalby


Props worth looking at

-Rothwell/Dos Santos – Under: +125
-Johnson/Tybura – Over: -160
-Lewis/Gonzaga – Under: -150


Fights to avoid:


-Mairbek Taisumov vs Damir Hadzovic
-Filip Pejic vs Damian Stasiak
-Alessio Di Chirico vs Bojan Velickovic
 

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