[h=1]Betting guide for golf's first major[/h]Alf MusketaSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Betting on golf is at an all-time high right now. Sportsbooks are getting plenty of action across the board -- on futures odds, tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups and prop bets. The depth and quality of the fields on the PGA Tour is better than ever, and while the majority of the sports betting world has been focusing on NCAA basketball and the opening of the baseball season, we are now ready to tackle Augusta National and the year's first major.
Your main handicapping focus should be on current form; second, Augusta National and the experience factor; third, value and shopping around for the best long-shot prices and matchups. As a bettor, you should be prepared to spread out your risk and take advantage of the many props and live wagering opportunities that oddsmakers post.
This week, Augusta National hosts its smallest invitational field since 2002, with only 89 players in action. There are no noteworthy changes made to the course this year. The early weather forecast appears to be good, with most of the tournament dry and playing fast. There is an outside chance of rain on Thursday and light winds throughout the week. Scoring should be low. The winning score last year was 270 -- or 18 under par, if you prefer. I predict something close to 276 will win this week, due to the likelihood of the greens drying out and speeding up as the week progresses.
Handicappers will argue whether it is better to rest the week before a major or play in a tournament leading up to it. The green jacket has been won eight times in the past 13 years by players who competed in the tour event prior to Augusta National.
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This season there is no prohibitive favorite, but I still believe the winner will come from one of the top 10 players in the field -- though that doesn't mean some of the players with longer odds should be excluded from the discussion when contemplating a bet for this week.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and William Hill U.S.
[h=2]Favorites[/h]Jason Day (6-1)
Day regained the World No. 1 ranking with his win at the WGC Dell Match Play event two weeks ago. He suffered back spasms during his first match, and despite the repeated requests from his family and team members to rest, we admire his gutsy decision to continue. After winning, he said, "the goal was to get back to No. 1, then dominate from there." His daily practice routine, especially the three-and-a-half-hour short game session, which resulted in his getting up and down 19 of 22 times in the match play format, has paid dividends. Add in the confidence of back-to-back wins on tour, and beatingRory McIlroy (the defending champion of the match play event) in the semifinals, and we see Day, the hottest player in golf, as the man to beat.
Bubba Watson (14-1)
Watson's game is rounding back into form at just the right time, with a win six weeks ago at the Northern Trust Open followed by a runner-up finish at the WGC Cadillac Championship. It could be a good omen for Watson; in 2014 he won the Northern Trust Open and then went on to win his second green jacket. He's never missed a cut at Augusta, but what sets him apart from any player in the field is that he is a superior, long-hitting lefty. His hard cut tee shot on the par-5 13th in 2015 -- in which he was able to hit a sand wedge into the green -- was so dramatic that the Augusta National committee is looking at lengthening the hole and tee box. While the San Francisco Giants have garnered the most attention for even-year success of late, lefties have had a similarly sterling record at Augusta, having won almost every even-dated year (2008 is the only exception) going back to 2004. If Bubba gets his putter going anywhere near the top half of the field in strokes gained putting this week, he'll have a great opportunity to win his third title at Augusta.
Justin Rose (25-1)
Rose was tied for sixth place or better in three of the four majors in 2015, including a runner-up finish at Augusta. His worst finish here is a T-39 -- and he has never missed at a cut. He gets out of the gate fast, and he led this tournament in 2007 and '08 and finished T-25 or better in seven of the past eight years. He says he is most proud of last year's performance, when he shot four consecutive rounds under par. Rose has, in my opinion, the best swing on tour -- he just needs to make a few more birdies and he'll have a chance to don the green jacket and win his second major title.
[h=2]Long shots[/h]Paul Casey (75-1)
With so many distractions, including a divorce and multiple injuries, Casey dropped to 169th in the Official World Golf Rankings a few years ago. He bounced back over the past two seasons, and with a stellar 2015 that produced eight top-10 finishes, he was back in the top 25 of the OWGR. Last month he had back-to-back top-10 finishes in the WGC Cadillac Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Casey now ranks 11th in total driving and 11th in greens in regulation. I can see him improving upon his T-6 finish from 2015 at Augusta, with a solid shot to win his first green jacket. We most certainly have a ticket on Casey at 75-to-1.
Brooks Koepka (80-1)
Koepka has all the tools to win this event. First off, he's long off the tee, ranking ninth in driving distance (307.4 yards) on tour. He hits a nice draw off the tee when needed, and at Augusta, seven holes bend right to left versus four left to right and three straight. Last year was his first time around Augusta National, and we know that first-timers struggle with this layout and the super-fast greens, but even more so with getting caught up in all the hoopla and excitement of their first trip to Augusta National. Yes, Koepka missed the cut last week in the Shell Houston Open, but prior to that he has been knocking on the door, with three top-10s in six starts.
[h=2]Head-to-head matchups[/h]Charley Hoffman (-115) over Shane Lowry
When wagering on matchups, I like to concentrate on who to bet against rather than betting on certain players. Sure, we'd all like to win with Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott, but I recommend you stay away from those matchups. They can beat each other any given week on any course.
Hoffman missed the cut at the Career Builder Challenge back in January. Since then he has played on the weekend in seven straight tournaments. Last week at the Shell Houston Open, Hoffman came out strong, firing a first-round-leading 64, but he faded to a T-33 finish. Lowry missed the cut last week, and he didn't win a match at the WGC Dell Matchplay in group play -- and last year he missed the cut at Augusta. Hoffman will look to improve on 2015's strong T-8 finish.
Daniel Berger (-110) over Webb Simpson
This matchup features two players going in opposite directions. While we try to stay away from players making their first start in this tournament, it looks like Berger is playing his best golf of the year right now. Last year's tour Rookie of the Year, Berger was bombing his tee shots last week in Houston and posted a T-5 finish -- closing with a sizzling round of 66.
Simpson has performed poorly of late, and we believe it's because of the 2016 putting anchor ban. In his last three starts, he's missed two cuts and posted a mediocre 68th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Simpson is a low-ball flight hitter, which is not well received on this track, and it shows: He has missed the cut at Augusta in two of the past three years.
Jamie Donaldson (-115) over Graeme McDowell
We are betting against G Mac every chance we get. He has many distractions, including his first child being on the way, a pub/restaurant business to take care of and a lack of confidence on the course. Augusta National doesn't suit his game, either -- he's too short off the tee, and his best finish is 52nd, with two missed cuts in his past three appearances. Donaldson has posted back-to-back top-20 finishes on tour and he ranks a magnificent second in strokes gained putting; MacDowell ranks a distant 154th in that category.
[h=2]Props[/h]Finishing position by Dustin Johnson: Under 17.5 (-110)
Johnson is perhaps the best player in the game today to never have won a major. As we saw at last year's U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, he can dominate the field with his driver alone. His game is tailor-made for Augusta National, and this past week in Houston he made more long putts than I've ever seen him make. He should be right there in the mix come Sunday, and this prop should be closer to 10.5, not 17.5. Take the under.
Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut? Yes (-160)
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</article>DeChambeau is one of only five players in the history of golf to have won the U.S. Amateur and NCAA individual championship in the same year. He gets an invite here after winning the Amateur, and he says he will turn pro after this tournament. DeChambeau has an interesting game, with unusual clubs, but a solid single plane swing inspired by who I consider the greatest ball striker of all time: Moe Norman. He has been on the Augusta National grounds for more than two weeks, and in that span he has played 11 practice rounds so far.
The cut for the first major is the top 50 players and ties, plus those who are within 10 shots of the lead. This year with such a tiny field of 89, where you can safely eliminate half the first timers, older past champions and most of the amateurs invited, 55-60 golfers could easily be playing on the weekend -- meaning DeChambeau would have to finish ahead of only 29 players at the close of play on Friday.
ESPN INSIDER
Betting on golf is at an all-time high right now. Sportsbooks are getting plenty of action across the board -- on futures odds, tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups and prop bets. The depth and quality of the fields on the PGA Tour is better than ever, and while the majority of the sports betting world has been focusing on NCAA basketball and the opening of the baseball season, we are now ready to tackle Augusta National and the year's first major.
Your main handicapping focus should be on current form; second, Augusta National and the experience factor; third, value and shopping around for the best long-shot prices and matchups. As a bettor, you should be prepared to spread out your risk and take advantage of the many props and live wagering opportunities that oddsmakers post.
This week, Augusta National hosts its smallest invitational field since 2002, with only 89 players in action. There are no noteworthy changes made to the course this year. The early weather forecast appears to be good, with most of the tournament dry and playing fast. There is an outside chance of rain on Thursday and light winds throughout the week. Scoring should be low. The winning score last year was 270 -- or 18 under par, if you prefer. I predict something close to 276 will win this week, due to the likelihood of the greens drying out and speeding up as the week progresses.
Handicappers will argue whether it is better to rest the week before a major or play in a tournament leading up to it. The green jacket has been won eight times in the past 13 years by players who competed in the tour event prior to Augusta National.
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This season there is no prohibitive favorite, but I still believe the winner will come from one of the top 10 players in the field -- though that doesn't mean some of the players with longer odds should be excluded from the discussion when contemplating a bet for this week.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and William Hill U.S.
[h=2]Favorites[/h]Jason Day (6-1)
Day regained the World No. 1 ranking with his win at the WGC Dell Match Play event two weeks ago. He suffered back spasms during his first match, and despite the repeated requests from his family and team members to rest, we admire his gutsy decision to continue. After winning, he said, "the goal was to get back to No. 1, then dominate from there." His daily practice routine, especially the three-and-a-half-hour short game session, which resulted in his getting up and down 19 of 22 times in the match play format, has paid dividends. Add in the confidence of back-to-back wins on tour, and beatingRory McIlroy (the defending champion of the match play event) in the semifinals, and we see Day, the hottest player in golf, as the man to beat.
Bubba Watson (14-1)
Watson's game is rounding back into form at just the right time, with a win six weeks ago at the Northern Trust Open followed by a runner-up finish at the WGC Cadillac Championship. It could be a good omen for Watson; in 2014 he won the Northern Trust Open and then went on to win his second green jacket. He's never missed a cut at Augusta, but what sets him apart from any player in the field is that he is a superior, long-hitting lefty. His hard cut tee shot on the par-5 13th in 2015 -- in which he was able to hit a sand wedge into the green -- was so dramatic that the Augusta National committee is looking at lengthening the hole and tee box. While the San Francisco Giants have garnered the most attention for even-year success of late, lefties have had a similarly sterling record at Augusta, having won almost every even-dated year (2008 is the only exception) going back to 2004. If Bubba gets his putter going anywhere near the top half of the field in strokes gained putting this week, he'll have a great opportunity to win his third title at Augusta.
Justin Rose (25-1)
Rose was tied for sixth place or better in three of the four majors in 2015, including a runner-up finish at Augusta. His worst finish here is a T-39 -- and he has never missed at a cut. He gets out of the gate fast, and he led this tournament in 2007 and '08 and finished T-25 or better in seven of the past eight years. He says he is most proud of last year's performance, when he shot four consecutive rounds under par. Rose has, in my opinion, the best swing on tour -- he just needs to make a few more birdies and he'll have a chance to don the green jacket and win his second major title.
[h=2]Long shots[/h]Paul Casey (75-1)
With so many distractions, including a divorce and multiple injuries, Casey dropped to 169th in the Official World Golf Rankings a few years ago. He bounced back over the past two seasons, and with a stellar 2015 that produced eight top-10 finishes, he was back in the top 25 of the OWGR. Last month he had back-to-back top-10 finishes in the WGC Cadillac Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Casey now ranks 11th in total driving and 11th in greens in regulation. I can see him improving upon his T-6 finish from 2015 at Augusta, with a solid shot to win his first green jacket. We most certainly have a ticket on Casey at 75-to-1.
Brooks Koepka (80-1)
Koepka has all the tools to win this event. First off, he's long off the tee, ranking ninth in driving distance (307.4 yards) on tour. He hits a nice draw off the tee when needed, and at Augusta, seven holes bend right to left versus four left to right and three straight. Last year was his first time around Augusta National, and we know that first-timers struggle with this layout and the super-fast greens, but even more so with getting caught up in all the hoopla and excitement of their first trip to Augusta National. Yes, Koepka missed the cut last week in the Shell Houston Open, but prior to that he has been knocking on the door, with three top-10s in six starts.
[h=2]Head-to-head matchups[/h]Charley Hoffman (-115) over Shane Lowry
When wagering on matchups, I like to concentrate on who to bet against rather than betting on certain players. Sure, we'd all like to win with Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott, but I recommend you stay away from those matchups. They can beat each other any given week on any course.
Hoffman missed the cut at the Career Builder Challenge back in January. Since then he has played on the weekend in seven straight tournaments. Last week at the Shell Houston Open, Hoffman came out strong, firing a first-round-leading 64, but he faded to a T-33 finish. Lowry missed the cut last week, and he didn't win a match at the WGC Dell Matchplay in group play -- and last year he missed the cut at Augusta. Hoffman will look to improve on 2015's strong T-8 finish.
Daniel Berger (-110) over Webb Simpson
This matchup features two players going in opposite directions. While we try to stay away from players making their first start in this tournament, it looks like Berger is playing his best golf of the year right now. Last year's tour Rookie of the Year, Berger was bombing his tee shots last week in Houston and posted a T-5 finish -- closing with a sizzling round of 66.
Simpson has performed poorly of late, and we believe it's because of the 2016 putting anchor ban. In his last three starts, he's missed two cuts and posted a mediocre 68th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Simpson is a low-ball flight hitter, which is not well received on this track, and it shows: He has missed the cut at Augusta in two of the past three years.
Jamie Donaldson (-115) over Graeme McDowell
We are betting against G Mac every chance we get. He has many distractions, including his first child being on the way, a pub/restaurant business to take care of and a lack of confidence on the course. Augusta National doesn't suit his game, either -- he's too short off the tee, and his best finish is 52nd, with two missed cuts in his past three appearances. Donaldson has posted back-to-back top-20 finishes on tour and he ranks a magnificent second in strokes gained putting; MacDowell ranks a distant 154th in that category.
[h=2]Props[/h]Finishing position by Dustin Johnson: Under 17.5 (-110)
Johnson is perhaps the best player in the game today to never have won a major. As we saw at last year's U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, he can dominate the field with his driver alone. His game is tailor-made for Augusta National, and this past week in Houston he made more long putts than I've ever seen him make. He should be right there in the mix come Sunday, and this prop should be closer to 10.5, not 17.5. Take the under.
Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut? Yes (-160)
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</article>DeChambeau is one of only five players in the history of golf to have won the U.S. Amateur and NCAA individual championship in the same year. He gets an invite here after winning the Amateur, and he says he will turn pro after this tournament. DeChambeau has an interesting game, with unusual clubs, but a solid single plane swing inspired by who I consider the greatest ball striker of all time: Moe Norman. He has been on the Augusta National grounds for more than two weeks, and in that span he has played 11 practice rounds so far.
The cut for the first major is the top 50 players and ties, plus those who are within 10 shots of the lead. This year with such a tiny field of 89, where you can safely eliminate half the first timers, older past champions and most of the amateurs invited, 55-60 golfers could easily be playing on the weekend -- meaning DeChambeau would have to finish ahead of only 29 players at the close of play on Friday.
