What I am working heavily is to focus on numbers and i want to stay away from intuition plays, because season is long and is hard to keep constantly good handicapping only with informations and intuition. I speak for myself.
I always wait until month may, when I drop out my projected lines. After yesterday, when i went 0-3 I put numbers in my math model, where I put projected performance for pitchers and teams for this season. It gave me some nice numbers and what is very interesting, is that most of my lines are pretty similar to those from bookmakers and I will share them with you. I am still little bit sceptic with this, but for me is better than taking picks based by intuition.
For the risks, I will use my model, which calculate the amount of money, which I place on one bet and it depends on bookmakers line. It was very successful in NHL season, when I used it (41-39, +1744, 26 Units, yield:18.82%).
I hope my numbers will help someone and we will see tomorrow what will be my tonight's record
WEDNESDAY - 6/4/2016
MLB 2016: -441.09 Units
YIELD: -50.01%
AVG RISK: 220.5 Units
AVG LINE: +102
PICKS PLAYED: 4
-------------------------------
MY PROJECTED LINES FOR TODAY:
Samardzija 51.97% San Francisco Giants -108
Jungmann 48.03% Milwaukee Brewers +108
Chatwood 44.71% Colorado Rockies +124
Corbin 55.28% Arizona Diamondbacks -124
Leake 46.56% St Louis Cardinals +115
NIcasio 53.44% Pittsburgh Pirates -115
Strasburg 52.93% Washington Nationals -112
Norris 47.07% Atlanta Braves +112
NOLA 43.50% Philadelphia Phillies +130
Finnegan 56.50% Cincinnati Reds -130
Maeda 51.01% Los Angeles Dodgers -104
Cashner 48.99% San Diego Padres +104
Happ 47.35% Toronto Blue Jays +111
Morre 52.64% Tampa Bay Rays -111
Miley 45.54% Seattle Mariners +120
Lewis 54.46% Texas Rangers -120
Bucholz 45.16% Boston Red Sox +121
Carrasco 54.84% Cleveland Indians -121
Mchugh 42.34% Houston Astros +136
Pineda 57.65% NY Yankees -136
Gibson 46.60% Minnesota Twins +115
Gallardo 53.40% Baltimore Orioles -115
Rondon 45.28% Chicago White Sox +121
Gray 54.72% Oakland Athletics -121
Sanchez 43.83% Detroit Tigers +128
Fernandez 56.17% Miami Marlins -128
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TODAY'S PLAYS:
Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) +146 (115 Units = 1.02%)
Atlanta Braves (Norris) +182 (300 Units = 2.65%)
San Diego Padres (Cashner) +120 (110 Units = 0.97%)
Tampa Bay Rays (Moore) +111 (170 Units = 1.50%)
Texas Rangers (Lewis) -103 (125 Units = 1.11%)
Good Luck to everyone!
I always wait until month may, when I drop out my projected lines. After yesterday, when i went 0-3 I put numbers in my math model, where I put projected performance for pitchers and teams for this season. It gave me some nice numbers and what is very interesting, is that most of my lines are pretty similar to those from bookmakers and I will share them with you. I am still little bit sceptic with this, but for me is better than taking picks based by intuition.
For the risks, I will use my model, which calculate the amount of money, which I place on one bet and it depends on bookmakers line. It was very successful in NHL season, when I used it (41-39, +1744, 26 Units, yield:18.82%).
I hope my numbers will help someone and we will see tomorrow what will be my tonight's record
WEDNESDAY - 6/4/2016
MLB 2016: -441.09 Units
YIELD: -50.01%
AVG RISK: 220.5 Units
AVG LINE: +102
PICKS PLAYED: 4
-------------------------------
MY PROJECTED LINES FOR TODAY:
Samardzija 51.97% San Francisco Giants -108
Jungmann 48.03% Milwaukee Brewers +108
Chatwood 44.71% Colorado Rockies +124
Corbin 55.28% Arizona Diamondbacks -124
Leake 46.56% St Louis Cardinals +115
NIcasio 53.44% Pittsburgh Pirates -115
Strasburg 52.93% Washington Nationals -112
Norris 47.07% Atlanta Braves +112
NOLA 43.50% Philadelphia Phillies +130
Finnegan 56.50% Cincinnati Reds -130
Maeda 51.01% Los Angeles Dodgers -104
Cashner 48.99% San Diego Padres +104
Happ 47.35% Toronto Blue Jays +111
Morre 52.64% Tampa Bay Rays -111
Miley 45.54% Seattle Mariners +120
Lewis 54.46% Texas Rangers -120
Bucholz 45.16% Boston Red Sox +121
Carrasco 54.84% Cleveland Indians -121
Mchugh 42.34% Houston Astros +136
Pineda 57.65% NY Yankees -136
Gibson 46.60% Minnesota Twins +115
Gallardo 53.40% Baltimore Orioles -115
Rondon 45.28% Chicago White Sox +121
Gray 54.72% Oakland Athletics -121
Sanchez 43.83% Detroit Tigers +128
Fernandez 56.17% Miami Marlins -128
----------
TODAY'S PLAYS:
Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) +146 (115 Units = 1.02%)
Atlanta Braves (Norris) +182 (300 Units = 2.65%)
San Diego Padres (Cashner) +120 (110 Units = 0.97%)
Tampa Bay Rays (Moore) +111 (170 Units = 1.50%)
Texas Rangers (Lewis) -103 (125 Units = 1.11%)
Good Luck to everyone!
