[h=1]Best Champions League bets: Manchester City-PSG, more[/h]James EasthamSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Champions League quarterfinal return legs take place this week, and all four ties are in the balance.
ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham outlines the best value bets in each of the four fixtures, including Real Madrid-Wolfsburg, Manchester City-Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid-Barcelona and Benfica-Bayern Munich.
[h=2]Tuesday[/h][h=2]Real Madrid vs. Wolfsburg[/h]Asian handicap: Real Madrid -2 (-114) vs. Wolfsburg +2 (+107)
3-way line: Real Madrid -479 / Wolfsburg +1300 / Draw +723
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 82 percent Real Madrid
Total: 3.75 (Over -108, Under -101)
Cristiano Ronaldo has called on the Real Madrid fans to get behind the team and try to make it a "perfect night" as Zinedine Zidane's hosts look to overturn the shock 2-0 defeat they suffered in the first leg in Germany last weekend. The difficulty is knowing which Real will turn up: the one that, in theory, is comfortably strong enough to beat Wolfsburg by a couple of goals, or the one that floundered and could have lost even more heavily last Wednesday.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
What's certain is that Real cannot afford to hang around: They need to win 2-0 just to force extra time, and will have to score a minimum of four times if they concede an away goal. So an open game seems almost certain, although the Total line has been moved to reflect that likelihood. Real on the handicap is the selection, as it is unlikely they will play as poorly as last week. But make no mistake: Ronaldo and Co. will need to raise their game considerably to seal one of the competition's great comebacks of recent seasons.
ESPN Chalk pick: Real Madrid -2 Asian handicap (-114)
[h=2]Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain[/h]Asian handicap: Manchester City 0 (+108) vs. Paris-Saint-Germain 0 (-116)
3-way line: Manchester City +178 / Paris-Saint-Germain +155 / Draw +273
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 26 percent draw
Total: 3 (Over +104, Under -114)
At first glance it's surprising that PSG are favourites to win at the Etihad Stadium this week considering they were no better than Manchester City in last Tuesday's first leg (2-2) and are without centre-back David Luiz and midfielder Blaise Matuidi for this return fixture. But PSG are arguably better suited to playing away than at home; they were more convincing in winning 2-1 at Chelsea in the last 16 than winning 2-1 at home to the same opponents, and last season they were better in the away leg than the home leg against Chelsea, too.
PSG clearly enjoy trips to England, and the pressure is now on City; even the City players themselves might be slightly surprised they managed to come away from Paris on level terms, and they now have the dilemma of how to approach the game where a 0-0 or 1-1 draw would be enough. Perhaps the biggest lesson from last week's match was how much better both of these sides were on offense versus defence: There were errors from both back fours and the attacking firepower was on display. That trend, along with the fact PSG have to score at least once to stand any chance of going through, suggests another open encounter is on the cards. For that reason goals is the selection.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 3 goals (+104)
[h=2]Wednesday[/h][h=2]Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona[/h]Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid +0.25 (+104) vs. Barcelona -0.25 (-111)
3-way line: Atletico Madrid +251 / Barcelona +119 / Draw +257
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: N/A
Total: 2.25 (Over -121, Under +110)
It was hardly surprising Fernando Torres described last week's first leg as one of "the worst days of my life as a footballer" as his red card was so crucial in the outcome. The Atletico Madrid striker was sent off on 35 minutes with his side leading 1-0; against 10 men Barcelona came back to win 2-1, meaning they are now strong favourites to go through.
Atletico are magnificently resistant but need to score here. The challenge is that if you attack Barcelona too insistently, you leave you leave yourself open to the tremendous counter-attacking skills of their famous front three, as Arsenal found out in the home leg of their last-16 tie, when Neymar and Lionel Messi tore them apart. Barcelona are a tempting selection, but goals is a slightly better bet, as the game is likely to be a little more open than the odds suggest.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 Goals (-121)
[h=2]Benfica vs. Bayern Munich[/h]Asian handicap: Benfica +0.75 (+104) vs. Bayern Munich -0.75 (-111)
3-way line: Benfica +447 / Bayern Munich -144 / Draw +304
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: N/A
Total: 2.5 (Over -108, Under -101)
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</article>Benfica exceeded expectations by limiting the damage to a 1-0 defeat in Germany last Tuesday. But even though they will have been pleased with that result, it makes them highly vulnerable this week. Benfica have to score at least once to stand any chance of going through, and that need to attack -- which wasn't the case last week -- will leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's speed and precision on the break.
As long as Bayern defend properly, the visitors stand a good chance not only of winning the tie but also winning on the night (they have an array of outstanding attackers and are capable of causing Benfica real problems on the counter-attack). The hosts will enjoy tremendous support and are clearly a stronger side than many gave them credit for heading into last week's first leg, but the favourites should prevail.
ESPN Chalk pick: Bayern Munich -0.75 Asian handicap (-111)
ESPN INSIDER
The Champions League quarterfinal return legs take place this week, and all four ties are in the balance.
ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham outlines the best value bets in each of the four fixtures, including Real Madrid-Wolfsburg, Manchester City-Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid-Barcelona and Benfica-Bayern Munich.
[h=2]Tuesday[/h][h=2]Real Madrid vs. Wolfsburg[/h]Asian handicap: Real Madrid -2 (-114) vs. Wolfsburg +2 (+107)
3-way line: Real Madrid -479 / Wolfsburg +1300 / Draw +723
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 82 percent Real Madrid
Total: 3.75 (Over -108, Under -101)
Cristiano Ronaldo has called on the Real Madrid fans to get behind the team and try to make it a "perfect night" as Zinedine Zidane's hosts look to overturn the shock 2-0 defeat they suffered in the first leg in Germany last weekend. The difficulty is knowing which Real will turn up: the one that, in theory, is comfortably strong enough to beat Wolfsburg by a couple of goals, or the one that floundered and could have lost even more heavily last Wednesday.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
What's certain is that Real cannot afford to hang around: They need to win 2-0 just to force extra time, and will have to score a minimum of four times if they concede an away goal. So an open game seems almost certain, although the Total line has been moved to reflect that likelihood. Real on the handicap is the selection, as it is unlikely they will play as poorly as last week. But make no mistake: Ronaldo and Co. will need to raise their game considerably to seal one of the competition's great comebacks of recent seasons.
ESPN Chalk pick: Real Madrid -2 Asian handicap (-114)
[h=2]Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain[/h]Asian handicap: Manchester City 0 (+108) vs. Paris-Saint-Germain 0 (-116)
3-way line: Manchester City +178 / Paris-Saint-Germain +155 / Draw +273
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 26 percent draw
Total: 3 (Over +104, Under -114)
At first glance it's surprising that PSG are favourites to win at the Etihad Stadium this week considering they were no better than Manchester City in last Tuesday's first leg (2-2) and are without centre-back David Luiz and midfielder Blaise Matuidi for this return fixture. But PSG are arguably better suited to playing away than at home; they were more convincing in winning 2-1 at Chelsea in the last 16 than winning 2-1 at home to the same opponents, and last season they were better in the away leg than the home leg against Chelsea, too.
PSG clearly enjoy trips to England, and the pressure is now on City; even the City players themselves might be slightly surprised they managed to come away from Paris on level terms, and they now have the dilemma of how to approach the game where a 0-0 or 1-1 draw would be enough. Perhaps the biggest lesson from last week's match was how much better both of these sides were on offense versus defence: There were errors from both back fours and the attacking firepower was on display. That trend, along with the fact PSG have to score at least once to stand any chance of going through, suggests another open encounter is on the cards. For that reason goals is the selection.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 3 goals (+104)
[h=2]Wednesday[/h][h=2]Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona[/h]Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid +0.25 (+104) vs. Barcelona -0.25 (-111)
3-way line: Atletico Madrid +251 / Barcelona +119 / Draw +257
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: N/A
Total: 2.25 (Over -121, Under +110)
It was hardly surprising Fernando Torres described last week's first leg as one of "the worst days of my life as a footballer" as his red card was so crucial in the outcome. The Atletico Madrid striker was sent off on 35 minutes with his side leading 1-0; against 10 men Barcelona came back to win 2-1, meaning they are now strong favourites to go through.
Atletico are magnificently resistant but need to score here. The challenge is that if you attack Barcelona too insistently, you leave you leave yourself open to the tremendous counter-attacking skills of their famous front three, as Arsenal found out in the home leg of their last-16 tie, when Neymar and Lionel Messi tore them apart. Barcelona are a tempting selection, but goals is a slightly better bet, as the game is likely to be a little more open than the odds suggest.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 Goals (-121)
[h=2]Benfica vs. Bayern Munich[/h]Asian handicap: Benfica +0.75 (+104) vs. Bayern Munich -0.75 (-111)
3-way line: Benfica +447 / Bayern Munich -144 / Draw +304
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: N/A
Total: 2.5 (Over -108, Under -101)
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</article>Benfica exceeded expectations by limiting the damage to a 1-0 defeat in Germany last Tuesday. But even though they will have been pleased with that result, it makes them highly vulnerable this week. Benfica have to score at least once to stand any chance of going through, and that need to attack -- which wasn't the case last week -- will leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's speed and precision on the break.
As long as Bayern defend properly, the visitors stand a good chance not only of winning the tie but also winning on the night (they have an array of outstanding attackers and are capable of causing Benfica real problems on the counter-attack). The hosts will enjoy tremendous support and are clearly a stronger side than many gave them credit for heading into last week's first leg, but the favourites should prevail.
ESPN Chalk pick: Bayern Munich -0.75 Asian handicap (-111)
