[h=1]NBA playoffs betting guide: title bets, first-round picks, more[/h]
- Dave Tuley
- Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
A lot of people think we should just hand the Larry O'Brien Trophy to theGolden State Warriors after their record-setting 73-win regular season. But it looks as if we're going to go through the formality of the playoffs anyway, so this is your ESPN Chalk NBA playoffs betting guide.
The Warriors are the 5-7 favorites (-140 stated as a money line) to win the title at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Conventional wisdom is that if the Warriors are to somehow stumble that it'll be either theCleveland Cavaliers or the San Antonio Spurs who cut down the nets and the Westgate agrees, as it has the Cavaliers at 3-1 with the Spurs at 7-2 and a huge gap to the Oklahoma City Thunder at 16-1.
I'm joined by Erin Rynning in previewing the playoffs from a betting perspective. We'll both offer a value bet from the futures board and then Rynning will take a look at the Eastern Conference, as he sees those matchups as more competitive. Yours truly will break down the Western Conference, as I'm more interested in taking the underdogs plus the points on a game-by-game basis.
[h=2]Best future value bets[/h]Miami Heat to win Eastern Conference (10-1)
Rynning: In general, it's difficult to buck the favorites and star power in the NBA futures market. However, the Heat drew well to reap the third seed in the Eastern Conference and are sitting in sound position to potentially unseat the Cavaliers. They get the perfect draw to make waves in the East. The Hornets overachieved this season, and the Heat own the matchup/talent advantages in the first round. In Round 2, they probably will face the Raptors, who've yet to win a playoff series since 2001. Finally, the most likely scenario features a showdown against the Cavaliers in the East finals. Absolutely, the Cavaliers are the deserving favorites; but with a rookie head coach and many splintered moments throughout the season, the Cavaliers' chin is a question mark. The current power rating of the Cavaliers is simply not overwhelming and the Heat have the experience and talent to make a run at the title.
Los Angeles Clippers to win Western Conference (15-1)
Tuley: It's probably not wise to go against the Warriors or Spurs in the West, but I feel I'm getting enough value with the Clippers at 15-1 to take a shot. I like how they had to play without Blake Griffin for a 45-game stretch but were able to go 30-15 -- and now they have him back. The most likely path if they get past Portland in the first round (and they're up to a -410 favorite) is to face Golden State and San Antonio in the next two series. Estimating that they'll be around +250 underdogs in those series (and if they were to upset the Warriors, it can be argued they would be a shorter underdog moving forward), the 15-1 is a fair price. If some team does the dirty work and makes the Clippers' path easier, that makes this play look even better.
[h=2]Breaking down the first round, series by series[/h][h=2]East[/h]
No. 8 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Westgate series price: Cavaliers -2500/Pistons +1100
Westgate Game 1 lines: Cavaliers -11; over/under 201
PickCenter Intel
Rynning: It's fitting the Pistons draw the Cavaliers in their first postseason since 2009, when they were swept by LeBron James and Cleveland. The Pistons actually won the head-to-head matchup 3-1 this season, although their finale Wednesday night was more like an exhibition game. Realistically matched up against a playoff-mode James and formidable Cleveland roster, the middling Pistons are still a long vision away from knocking off the top team in the East. The Cavaliers could prove vulnerable, especially after taking a punch or two, but the Pistons just don't have the all-around players to deliver those punches.
Picks: Look to bet the Pistons off a loss with the more experienced head coach, Stan Van Gundy, making the proper adjustments.
No. 7 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 2 Toronto Raptors
Westgate series price: Raptors -400/Pacers +330
Westgate Game 1 lines: Raptors -6.5; over/under 195
PickCenter Intel
Rynning: The Raptors took another step forward in the regular season, earning a franchise-record 56 wins. However, playoff success is fleeting for the franchise that was swept as the 4 seed last season by the Washington Wizards. Last season's edition showed clear slippage on defense, and All-Star guard Kyle Lowry was playing with little confidence and shooting 18-for-57 (31.6 percent) from the field for the series. No question, the Raptors own better footing entering the playoffs this season, but the Pacers are formidable foes.
Indiana features perhaps the best player in the series in Paul George, while boasting the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the league. The Pacers joined the league movement, launching 149 more 3-point shots than the previous season. The Raptors owned the second-worst 3-point defense in the regular season, allowing the opposition to shoot 37.3 percent from beyond the arc. Finally, Lowry nursed a shooting elbow injury down the stretch and he shot 50-of-156 (32.1 percent since March 20). Another cold shooting series from the All-Star could spell trouble.
Picks: Lean to the Pacers +330 to win the series, while looking to bet the Pacers in individual games.
No. 6 Charlotte Hornets vs. No. 3 Miami Heat
Westgate series price: Heat -145/Hornets +125
Westgate Game 1 lines: Heat -4.5; over/under 201.5
PickCenter Intel
Rynning: The Hornets overachieved this season, nailing down the sixth spot in the East as head coach Steve Clifford and his players did an amazing job. It was a year of adjustments for the Hornets, most notably from the 3-point line; Charlotte made only 498 3s a season ago, then took it up a notch this season (873).
The Heat, meanwhile, were just getting to know one another. The opening tip was the first time their starters all played together in a regular-season game, and they added Joe Johnson at the trade deadline. For all the Hornets' bounty of 3-point shots, the Heat still do it the old-fashioned way, ranking 28th in 3-point attempts. However, note Charlotte's lack of rim-protecting prowess. This is an undersized, slower team inside, which will prove a poor matchup against the Heat offense. Much is made of the Hornets' best record in the Eastern Conference since the All-Star break (21-8), but the Heat are close behind with a 19-10 showing. There is also cause for concern with Nicolas Batum, the Hornets' best two-way player, nursing ankle and knee injuries to the same leg.
Pick: Bet the Heat to win the series -145.
No. 5 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Atlanta Hawks
Westgate series price: Hawks -165/Celtics +145
Westgate Game 1 lines: Hawks -5; over/under 204.5
PickCenter Intel
Rynning: As the teams' identical regular-season records show, this series figures to be the most competitive and entertaining of the first round. The Hawks peaked early last season, supported by an amazing 19-0 run in December and January. As they flamed out in the playoffs, it was easy to see this team would hope to build to a crescendo come playoff time this season.
However, the Hawks continue to search for their sharp shooting, ranking just 23rd in offensive efficiency in the regular season. The Hawks stepped up their game on the other end of the court, ranking second in defensive efficiency in owning the top spot since the first of the year.
The Celtics enjoyed another step forward in their rebuilding plan, but this is a team currently built to excel in the regular season with superior depth and coaching. They continue to lack the game-changer that's generally needed in playoff basketball. In addition, they slumped down the stretch, correlating with the high ankle sprain to their best two-way player, Jae Crowder.
Pick: Hawks -165 to win the series.
[h=2]West[/h]
No. 8 Houston Rockets vs. No. 1 Golden State Warriors
Westgate series price: Warriors -7000/Rockets +1700
Westgate Game 1 lines: Warriors -13; over/under 225.5
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: For all the effort put forth by the Warriors to get the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference (and the 73-win, record-setting season), they actually get the tougher first-round opponent in the Rockets (while the Spurs face the injury-riddled Grizzlies) -- though obviously the main incentive was for the Warriors to have home-court advantage in the anticipated conference finals against the Spurs. Still, the Rockets are dangerous with James Harden capable of going off on any given night. Now, I don't expect the Rockets to win more than one game in this series, but they have more talent than your typical No. 8 seed and can cover a majority of the games. Saturday's Game 1 line is Golden State -13 and I'll take the Rockets plus the points.
The Warriors, as awesome as they've been this season, have had the oddsmakers catch up with them with inflated point spreads, and were only 14-18 ATS in their last 32 games (starting with a non-cover against the Rockets on Feb. 9) and 6-8 ATS down the stretch, which was worse before covering their last two games. The fact is, the Warriors just care about winning and moving on, so I look for their ATS woes to continue.
Picks: Rockets +13 in Game 1 and probably plus the points as long as the series goes.
No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs
Westgate series price: Spurs -11000/Grizzlies +2100
Westgate Game 1 lines: Spurs -15.5; over/under 190
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: This is one of three Western Conference series with a double-digit spread in Game 1. The line has grown to Spurs -15.5, making it the biggest of the Game 1 lines, but this is the one in which I have the least confidence. The Grizzlies have limped into the playoffs with a roster depleted by injuries, so when I saw an early line of 14.5 on this game, I was thinking that I would pass. However, as other books went with -15 and it has been bet to 15.5, I'm probably going to take the underdog on principle, as the NBA Vegas rankings only have the Spurs as 10 points better on a neutral court. There's also the possibility that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich will find time to rest his starters and take the foot off the gas at times.
Picks: Grizzlies plus the most points I can find in Game 1, then watch and see how competitive they're going to be.
No. 6 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder
Westgate series price: Thunder -3000/Mavericks +1200
Westgate Game 1 lines: Thunder -12.5; over/under 208.5
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: In our NBA Vegas rankings, we have the Thunder as only seven points better than the Mavericks on a neutral court, so even with home-court advantage, we don't think this line should be in double digits. Granted, Oklahoma City is clearly the better team, but we're all familiar with the way they've underachieved in postseasons past, and the Mavericks have tended to overachieve, so I'll trust them more in tight games.
Dirk Nowitzki certainly has to be hot and get help from his supporting cast, but the Mavs have certainly done that as they average 102.4 points per game and should be able to keep the Thunder off the offensive boards. Unless Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are both clicking, the Thunder should find it hard to win by the big margins needed to cover these inflated spreads.
Picks: Mavericks +12.5 in Game 1 and probably in Game 2 as well; probably will take them on money line in Games 3-4 to pull at least one upset in the games in Dallas.
No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers
Westgate series price: Clippers -410/Trail Blazers +340
Westgate Game 1 lines: Clippers -8; over/under 207.5
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: It shouldn't come as a surprise, since I touted the Clippers on a future bet above, that I'm not going to fade them here with the Blazers. The Game 1 line opened Clippers -6 and I would have made an argument that the chalk was the play, as our NBA Vegas rankings have the Clippers as five points better than the Blazers before adding in home-court advantage, but early bettors have taken away that value.
Picks: Pass on individual games; possibly take Clippers as short road 'dogs in games in Portland.
[h=2]Zigzagging through the NBA playoffs[/h]Tuley: It's playoff time, so you're bound to hear about the "zigzag theory" if you hang out in betting circles, whether in the real world or the virtual online world. It's also called the "loser of the last" and states that you're supposed to bet the straight-up loser in the next game against the spread.
The logic is that the team that loses will make adjustments, while the winner won't make adjustments because "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." (Note: There's also some who will say the NBA benefits from longer series, as it leads to more attendance and more TV ratings and ads, so the trading back and forth of wins added to the mystique.)
Legend has it that the zigzag started with the Gold Sheet, which popularized its use during the 1980s and '90s, and word of it spread even further with the advent of the internet age. Inevitably, as more people became aware of it, the results dried up. I first wrote about the demise of the zigzag theory in my Daily Racing Forum column in 2006.
Marc Lawrence of playbook.com had the zigzag's record at a very profitable 311-249-10 ATS (55.5 percent) from 1991 through 2000, but then only 475-444-27 ATS (51.6 percent) from 2001 through 2013 -- though it did rebound a little in 2014 at 40-33-1 ATS (54.8 percent) before going just 33-32-1 ATS last year, so now only 548-509-29 ATS (51.8 percent) since 2001.
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</article>Part of the reason for the drop-off is just the natural regression to the mean, but there's also the fact that oddsmakers have adjusted over the years to combat the zigzag players. However, there is one subset that has continued to have success and that's the zigzag only using the Game 1 losers in Game 2s against the spread. Last year, those plays went 9-6 ATS (60 percent) after going 32-12-2 ATS (72.7 percent) the previous three years. Lawrence has them at 204-159-13 (56.2 percent) since 1991.
Now, I'm not saying to bet these blindly, but it is something to consider, especially after this opening weekend.
Good luck, everybody!
