Betting Guide For NBA Playoff Game 2's

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[h=1]Betting guide for NBA playoff Game 2s[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER

LAS VEGAS -- All eight NBA playoff series have had their Game 1s, so it's time to handicap the Game 2s through the prism of the famous zig-zag theory.
For the uninitiated, the zig-zag -- also referred to as the "loser of the last" -- means betting on the loser of first game to cover the spread in the next game. Legend has it that the zig-zag started with the Gold Sheet, which popularized the theory's use during the 1980s and 90s, and word of it spread even further during the early days of the internet.
The zig-zag theory was a very profitable 311-249-10 ATS (55.5 percent) from the 1991 NBA playoffs through 2000, according to the betting results kept by Marc Lawrence of playbook.com. The results, however, haven't been as strong since the turn of the century, as the zig-zag was 475-444-27 ATS (51.6 percent) from 2001 through 2013 (and everyone should know by now that you have to hit 52.3 percent to break even against the standard 10 percent vig).


The logic behind it is that teams make adjustments after they lose or play with added incentive, while a team isn't as likely to make adjustments after a victory (note: there's also a school of thought that says longer series mean higher TV ratings and advertising revenue, and that plays into the zig-zag's success).
While the zig-zag theory is a cautionary tale that all good trends dry up, it has been very profitable for Game 2s, as according to Lawrence's database, he has Game 2 zig-zag plays at a still exceptional 204-159-13 (56.2 percent) since 1991.
One last warning before we look at the eight first-round Game 2s that will take place Monday through Wednesday: Past performance does not guarantee future results, and I don't advise playing any system blindly. So I'll try and focus in on the Game 2 zig-zag plays that I like the best, and we'll see if that approach fares better than playing all eight.
For those not aware, after the Pacers upset the Raptors in the first game on Saturday, the favorites won the next seven games, so the plays according to the Game 2 zig-zag theory would be:
Monday
Raptors -7 vs. Pacers
Mavericks +13.5 vs. Thunder
Rockets +13 vs. Warriors

Tuesday
Celtics +6 vs. Hawks
Grizzlies +18.5 vs. Spurs

Wednesday
Hornets +5 vs Heat
Pistons +10.5 vs. Cavaliers
Trail Blazers +8.5 vs. Clippers

Now let's look at them game by game and I'll mark my best bets with an asterisk (*):

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Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors
Game 1: Pacers (+7) beat Raptors 100-90
Game 2 zig-zag play: Raptors -7

The zig-zag says to lay the points with Raptors and expect them to bounce back on their home court. I'll pass on this play, as I'm more inclined to take underdogs with the points, plus I could see Toronto bouncing back to even the series but not covering this number. My play: Pass

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Game 1: Thunder (-12) beat Mavericks 108-70
Game 2 zig-zag play: Mavericks +13.5*

Despite Oklahoma City's 38-point rout in Game 1, this line opened just slightly higher than the Game 1 line at -12.5 at the majority of Vegas books on Saturday night. It's been bet up to 13.5, as most bettors are betting against the zig-zag, but this is where I like to jump in as a contrarian. I'll take the Mavs +13.5 or better if I can get it before tipoff.
My play: Mavericks +13.5*

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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Game 1: Warriors (-13) beat Rockets 104-78
Game 2 zig-zag play: Rockets +13*

Despite Golden State's 26-point rout, this line opened at only -12.5, though part of that could also be attributed to the unknown status of Stephen Curry's ankle injury. It has since been bet up to 13.5, and I'll again go with the big underdog.James Harden got in early foul trouble in Game 1, and he's unlikely to be as cold as he was in the opener. While the Warriors certainly have a lot of depth and wouldn't be devastated if Curry is unable to play or is limited, I would like that for the purposes of the Rockets being able to stay within the number.
My play: Rockets +13*

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Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Game 1: Hawks (-5) beat Celtics 102-101
Game 2 zig-zag play: Celtics +6*

This is where some betting novices get confused with zig-zag: they think that the play should be on the Hawks because they didn't cover in Game 1, but that's why I also brought up the zig-zag's other name: the loser of the last. The Celtics lost the game, so there's the Game 2 play, and I did like the fact they nearly stole Game 1.
My play: Celtics +6*

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Game 1: Spurs (-17) beat Grizzlies 106-74
Game 2 zig-zag play: Grizzlies +18.5

Despite the 32-point rout, Game 2 opened right where it closed for Game 1 at Spurs -17, but early bettors jumped all over San Antonio, and the line is now up to 18.5. I'm not thrilled with backing the injury-depleted Grizzlies, plus it looks like Gregg Popovich would like to get this series over and get his players a rest (of course that's what all coaches would like to do, but the Spurs are more capable than most).
My play: Pass

Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
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Game 1: Heat (-4.5) beat Hornets 123-91
Game 2 zig-zag play: Hornets +5

This line did rise a little after the Heat's 32-point rout. I do think these teams are pretty equally matched, but I was a little discouraged by how much better Miami looked in the opener. Of course, that thinking is why the zig-zag has had so much success because people don't see how teams can bounce back from such bad losses (though they do it all the time). Still, I can't pull the trigger here.
My play: Pass

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Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 1: Cavaliers (-11) beat Pistons 106-101
Game 2 zig-zag play: Pistons +10.5*

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</article>This is a line that moved in the logical direction after the Pistons played the Cavaliers tough before losing but covering the spread. I liked what I saw from the Pistons (who play as a team, with five players averaging 14 points or more) and will be backing them again to keep this game close and at least get the cover again.
My play: Pistons +10.5*

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Game 1: Clippers (-8.5) beat Trail Blazers 115-95
Game 2 zig-zag play: Trail Blazers +8.5

Again, this underdog is tempting, but the Clippers are my long-shot pick to win the Western Conference, so I'm going to sit back and hope they continue to get stronger. I'll certainly be looking to play them later in the series off of a loss.
My play: Pass

Best bets: Mavericks +13.5, Rockets +13, Celtics +6, Pistons +10.5.

We'll see how those four plays compare to the eight zig-zag plays.
 

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