Seattle -105 over CLEVELAND (5 innings)
12:10 PM EST. Cody Anderson went 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 91 innings for the Indians last year and came into this year as a sleeper choice to do well. A strong showing by Anderson in AAA (1.89 ERA in 71 IP) netted a late June call-up, where he continued to roll. However, we’re going to focus on skills, not stats, and what we see is a subpar K-rate that severely limits his upside given equally mediocre swing and miss stuff. Anderson falls behind too many hitters and is forced to come right down the middle because if it. His MLB xERA (5.27) further hints that we may have already seen his best year. Seattle has faced some strong pitching already this year. They play half their games at a strong pitcher’s park. The M’s have also faced Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar in succession over their past three games. They take a big step down in class here when facing Anderson.
While Nathan Karns’ late ERA spike last year and his 4.50 ERA in two starts this year will keep a lot of the market away from him, there are some solid reasons for optimism now. 1) Karns’ uptick in command in the second half of last year coupled with his big first-pitch strike rate and swing and miss rate growth makes him a big breakout target. 2) Those second half gains are hidden by aberrant hr/f; 3) His strong dominant start/disaster start split reflects his high-floor profile. If those late gains stick (and he even looks better this year) his rising ceiling will not keep him under the radar much longer. The time to invest in Karns would be now. Because this wager is based on the starting pitchers, we’ll play it in five innings. (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
The rest of today's games will be posted in another thread with updated record.
Best of luck!
