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All plays are for 2 units with the exception of Texas. That is a 0.5 unit play.

Tampa Bay -½ +116 over N.Y. YANKEES (5 innings)

5-inning wager. C.C. Sabathia wasn’t as awful as his first half of last year suggests, with all of hit%, strand% and hr/f working against him. Even with post-June velocity and groundball upticks, he wasn’t as good as his second half ERA either.
In 11 innings this year, Sabathia has three hotdogs, four hamburgers and a box of popcorn. His year-long strikeout rate plunge is ominous, and the HR’s that he serves up look here to stay. Sabathia has been neither reliable nor profitable for three years. Age, health and weight say that’s unlikely to change.

The Rays are hitting just .219 against southpaws but that is in for a big correction to the good because this is a very decent hitting lineup versus lefties. New York is hitting just .218 against lefties and that number is not in for a correction anytime soon. The Yanks are can’t hit lefties, period and in fact, they’re 0-4 against them this year.
Matt Moore is an under the radar lefty that won’t be under the radar much longer. Moore has quietly struck out 21 batters in 18 innings while walking just three. This is a guy with off the charts skills in his career the first time through an order. Moore showed flashes of becoming one of the AL's best starters in 2012 before injuries derailed that. Moore subsequently had Tommy John surgery and returned to pitch just 63 innings last year in which he really struggled in his first six starts. He returned in September and was outstanding. With top-tier raw stuff, consistency is the missing piece for Moore but that’s just about there also. Moore v C.C = pitching mismatch, thus the five-inning wager.

Minnesota +135 over WASHINGTON (5 innings)
5-inning wager. We’ll make this a five-inning wager because Washington’s relief pitching is near the top of the league in both ERA and xERA while the Twins are near the bottom in both. Kyle Gibson is winless in three starts so his stock is low and the Twinkies are just 5-11 so their stock is low too. Still, the Twins have a great hitting lineup that will score runs all year and Kyle Gibson is always capable of throwing a gem, we just don’t know when it’s going to happen.

Gibson has proven he can get groundballs, as he's seventh in groundball rate among qualified starters the last two seasons but to take a step forward, he'll need to strike out more guys. He's got the sixth-worst strikeout rate among qualified pitchers over that same time frame. The good news is that he has the tools to get more strikeouts. His changeup, slider and curveball all deliver above-average strikeout rates. He just chooses to pitch to contact and throw the fastball over 60 percent of the time. The best news, though, is that his approach may slowly be changing. In the second half of last year, he threw more changeups and curves and fewer sinkers and sliders. Last September, he posted a 16 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate, his best monthly production in that category and a number that would have been good for top-25 status last season. Gibson is not quite there yet in terms of putting it all together but he’s close and at prices like this, he’s worth a bet.

Gio Gonzalez finished 2015 with his worst ERA (3.79) and WHIP (1.42) since 2009. What happened? Bad fortune is partially to blame for his struggles, but much like 2014, it was a tale of two halves. The drastic rise in groundballs was noteworthy, but shoddy infield defense behind him, particularly at SS (only one player in MLB made more errors than Ian Desmond in 2015), no doubt contributed to an elevated hit %. In 2015, Gio tended to nibble with his pitches as only 43.5% of his pitches were inside the strike zone (zone%) compared to the league average of 47.8%. That inefficiency ran up pitch counts forcing earlier exits and contributed to his lowest dominant start % since 2009. Gonzalez’s ERA last year was aided by his third favorable hr/f in the past four years. One would assume it will eventually creep back toward league average (11%) or at least his career average (9%). Looking back, 2015 was a bit of a mixed bag for Gonzalez. He was unable to carry the momentum from a strong 2014 second half into 2015, and wound up having another season marked by disparate halves. Look, Gio is good, not great and his 0.69 ERA after two starts has him overpriced here. The Nats defense remains a liability and therefore those grounders have a better chance of being a base hit than they otherwise would. The price and the potential profit on both Gibson and Minnesota dictate this play.

COLORADO +100 over Los Angeles (5 innings)

5-inning wager. It's amazing how helpful or hurtful the hit% and strand% pendulum can be. While Scott Kazmir’s skills eroded last year, he was saved by a friendly strand rate. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again. Rising xERA trend combined with last year's big second half skill erosion put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. Kazmir is not a good option to return profits this year and that makes us sellers when he’s wrongly favored on the road in Colorado.

The Rockies planned to break spring training with Jonathan Gray in their rotation but a strained abdominal muscle near the end of camp set him back. After two minor-league rehabilitation starts, he's pain free and ready to go. Much has been written already about the struggles of the Rockies $4.8 million dollar first-round pick from 2013. Despite that, much of his original scouting report still applies: A plus-plus fastball that tops out at 98, a plus slider at 84-89 mph and his greatest strikeout weapon, alongside an above-average changeup that still is a little firm. Gray has near-frontline potential, but shoulder fatigue and shaky fastball command has led to him being much too hittable. Gray initially dominated in his debut season in the low minors, but has struggled since reaching Double-A. All of his component skills dropped since 2014 and have remained fairly static since. Whether Gray was rushed or not remains to be seen, but the tools that prompted him to be selected third overall are still there. He’s improved his fastball command and the shape of his change, and with a short and efficient delivery, everything in the profile says he can still hit his upside. There is risk for sure but Gray tweaked his mechanics after the abdominal injury and the reports are that he feels great, looks great and is throwing strikes. It’s likely to initially be a bumpy ride for Gray but when he’s a pooch with this offense behind him, he’s very much worth a bet.

Texas +140 over CHICAGO
Jose Quintana is a very decent and consistent pitcher that rarely gets blown up. Quintana is almost always good for six decent innings while allowing two, three or four runs. No matter what Quintana does tonight, we can live with it because we’re strictly playing the value here. Texas has the better offense, they’re in better form and they come in here having won five in a row. Furthermore, this is a lefty/lefty matchup that favors the visitor, as the South Side is hitting .218 versus southpaws while the Rangers are hitting .324.

Martin Perez went 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 79 innings for Texas last season. He returned from TJS mid-season and while his K-rate and xERA were forgettable, there are two very good reasons for optimism: 1) Post-injury first-pitch strike rate rose to elite ranks. 2) Heavy groundball% lean applied to every pitch, which is rare. This year, Perez has walked 11 while striking out just nine but a correction is forthcoming because of his high first-pitch strike rate. Perez’s swing and miss rate limit his upside right now, but elements of a breakout are aligning here and we’re more than willing to see what happens.

Note: We are playing the Rangers for just a half unit because we have included them in six parlays for 0.25 units each. Those parlays can be seen at the end of these write-ups.

Miami +147 over SAN FRAN
5-inning wager. Believing he ascended to the best starting pitcher option remaining on the free-agent market after Zack Greinke signed with Arizona, the Giants quickly came to terms with Jeff Samardzija. He’s yet to log a winning record in any of his four years as a starter (35-52 during that span), but had he been a free agent after the 2014 season (2.99 ERA/3.05 xERA, 202 K) he would have already been locked up to a Jon Lester-type deal. But in 2015, Samardzija inexplicably whiffed 1.5 fewer batters every nine innings while giving up the most hits, earned runs, and HR in the AL. That said, he has maintained his 94-mph fastball and his 2015 dips in swing and misses and first-pitch strikes were slight, and the 10% dive in his strand rate (to 63%) helped balloon his ERA/xERA to career-worsts 4.96/4.25. The Giants hitched their wagon to Samardzija’s four-year averages of 205 IP and 190 strikeouts and to the fact that he’s yet to lose one day to the disabled list. The latter is particularly important as the team deals with age, injury, and ineffectiveness beyond Madison Bumgarner. Although 30, Samardzija’s arm is still relatively young after converting from reliever to starter when he was 26. He’ll also be helped with his move to one of the most offense-averse venues in the majors. AT&T Park suppresses LHB HR and RHB HR by a collective 65%. From an early December perspective, the Samardzija-Giants hookup has the feel of a best-case scenario for both but Samardzija just doesn’t win games. He gives up hits in bunches and he also has bad innings. Perhaps it’s between the ears that prevent Samardzija from thriving but we’re not going to ignore that he’s a big risk laying big prices.

Jarred Cosart is a risk too but he’s not the one spotting -155 or thereabouts here. What we like about Cosart is his elite 65% groundball rate in two starts thus far. He’s always had an elite groundball rate so this is not a new found skill. Cosart’s problem is that he doesn’t throw enough strikes. He’s already walked nine batters in 10 frames and gets in trouble because of it. That’s the risk and it makes him unplayable when favored. However, these poor control types with good stuff occasionally throw a gem because they are capable of doing so. Cosart brings mid 90’s heat to the table to go along with that aforementioned heavy groundball lean, thus, he’s not a bad option at all to come up with five good innings.
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Today’s parlays will feature Texas as our key play. We’ll parlay Texas with the Islanders in one set of parlays and Texas with the Sharks in the other set of parlays. The betting lines for both those NHL teams to win in regulation are large enough for us to take a shot at. San Jose has not been outplayed in this series at all and L.A.’s secondary defensive pairs seem to be running out of gas. The Panthers are always in danger of losing because Roberto Luongo could allow five goals on any given day. Something is amiss with the Islanders, as they are a strong team that hasn’t played like such for two months but they can wake up at any time.

Note: All NHL games are in regulation time only.

Texas +133 onto NYI -½ +226 onto Oakland +123 (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.98 units).
Texas +133 onto NYI -½ +226 onto San Diego +115 (5 innings) (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.83 units).
Texas +133 onto NYI -½ +226 onto (MLB) Philadelphia +113 (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.80 units).

Texas +133 onto San Jose -½ +179 onto Oakland +123 (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.37 units).
Texas +133 onto San Jose -½ +179 onto San Diego +115 (5 innings) (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.24 units).
Texas +133 onto San Jose -½ +179 onto (MLB) Philadelphia +113 (Risking 0.25 units to win 3.21 units).
 

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S/wood.........nicely done yesterday...........good luck with all your action today............indy
 

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