[h=1]Five NFL season win total bets that I like[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Season win totals continue to grow in popularity in every sport, but nothing compares to the betting public's love for NFL over/unders.
For years, these bets wouldn't be posted until after the schedule was released and the draft had happened, and they were mostly aimed at Nevada summertime tourists to bet on their favorite teams and have a ticket to take back home and cheer for throughout the season. But wiseguys love the bets just as much because, unlike traditional futures like Super Bowl odds where a team has to win the title, a bet on a team just needs to have the team exceed its win total. In addition, you have the chance to bet against a team and hope it underachieves.
And the sportsbooks have reacted by offering these bets earlier and earlier.
In 2013, the Atlantis in Reno posted its over/unders on May 9. In 2014, the CG Technology books beat that by two months by releasing their numbers on March 7 and then beat that in 2015 by coming out on Feb. 13, less than two weeks after the Super Bowl. This year, CG Technology slacked off and opened its numbers on Feb. 24.
With the schedules now out and the draft coming up, we're going to be seeing more books posting their over/under season win totals, so it's a good time to check in on CG Technology's numbers to see which teams offer the best betting value at this time (with an eye toward jumping on better numbers if they become available).
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Atlanta Falcons (over 7)
Price: -140
A lot of analysts focus in on a team's supposed strength of schedule, but I consider that already factored into the line. I'm looking more for reasons the team will exceed or fall short of expectations. I've already gone on record that the Falcons (40-1) are my long-shot value pick to win the Super Bowl, so I have to be confident they'll easily get over their relatively low total. The Falcons were 8-8 last year after starting 5-0 and also were good enough to spoil the Carolina Panthers' perfect season. After the Falcons open against the Buccaneers, Raiders and Saints, they host the Panthers in a key matchup.
They have a big three in Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, and they've already started making improvements on the defensive side -- and we haven't even had the draft yet. I believe coach Dan Quinn, former architect of the Seattle defense, will continue to build this defense. This total is actually pretty low at 7, though there is heavy juice on the over. It's nice to have the insurance in case they were to go only 7-9, but I'll probably wait to see if I can go over 7.5 with better odds.
Carolina Panthers (under 10.5)
Price: +125
It's not too surprising that my second-best pick is an under on a team in the same division. The Panthers had everything go their way last year and now it's not going to be an "S" on Cam Newton's chest but a bull's-eye as the Panthers will get every team's top effort. That's part of the reason we see Super Bowl losers suffer from a hangover the next season. And now it looks like Josh Norman will be gone as well. In addition to having to play the defending champion Broncos on opening night, the Panthers have to face the rest of the AFC West while also playing a first-place schedule. I believe 10-6 would be a very respectable follow-up and that would still cash the under for us (and at the juicy price of +125).
Houston Texans (over 8)
Price: -140
The Texans are my top value team from the AFC, so again if I'm looking for them to make a deep run the playoffs, I need them to at least win their division and hopefully get a first-round bye. The Texans started 1-4 last year and clearly got better as the season progressed, finishing 9-7. If they had the same team returning, I would expect at least a repeat of that 9-7 mark and yet they've added Brock Osweiler to replace Brian Hoyer (and the rest of the revolving door) at QB and Lamar Miller at RB to go with a defense (ranked No. 3 last year) that should continue to improve.
Dallas Cowboys (under 9)
Price: -145
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</article>Tony Romo is back and supposedly healthy, so that's why the Cowboys are posted at over/under nine wins. I'm not buying it; I'm selling. For one thing, there's no guarantee Romo will make it through the whole season, in which case the under is definitely the right side. But even if he plays the whole year, the NFC East teams should continue beating up on each other and it won't be easy for anyone to get to double-digit wins. The Cowboys are more likely in my mind to be .500 or even worse as they have to face the AFC North (well, they might get one win against Cleveland) and travel to Green Bay and Minnesota. I'm not thrilled with laying the heavy juice, so I'll be looking to go under 8.5 at better odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers (over 10.5)
Price: -105
The Steelers were my long-shot pick to win the Super Bowl last season and despite all their injuries they were right there (leading the Broncos in the fourth quarter before a fumble from a fourth-string running back -- but, hey, I'm not bitter!). Anyway, I look for them to be dominant this year and to go over this relatively high total (though I like that it's only costing me -105) as their toughest non-division games against the Patriots and Chiefs are both at Heinz Field. Happy handicapping to everyone and we'll revisit the over/under win totals for all 32 teams after the draft.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Season win totals continue to grow in popularity in every sport, but nothing compares to the betting public's love for NFL over/unders.
For years, these bets wouldn't be posted until after the schedule was released and the draft had happened, and they were mostly aimed at Nevada summertime tourists to bet on their favorite teams and have a ticket to take back home and cheer for throughout the season. But wiseguys love the bets just as much because, unlike traditional futures like Super Bowl odds where a team has to win the title, a bet on a team just needs to have the team exceed its win total. In addition, you have the chance to bet against a team and hope it underachieves.
And the sportsbooks have reacted by offering these bets earlier and earlier.
In 2013, the Atlantis in Reno posted its over/unders on May 9. In 2014, the CG Technology books beat that by two months by releasing their numbers on March 7 and then beat that in 2015 by coming out on Feb. 13, less than two weeks after the Super Bowl. This year, CG Technology slacked off and opened its numbers on Feb. 24.
With the schedules now out and the draft coming up, we're going to be seeing more books posting their over/under season win totals, so it's a good time to check in on CG Technology's numbers to see which teams offer the best betting value at this time (with an eye toward jumping on better numbers if they become available).
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Atlanta Falcons (over 7)
Price: -140
A lot of analysts focus in on a team's supposed strength of schedule, but I consider that already factored into the line. I'm looking more for reasons the team will exceed or fall short of expectations. I've already gone on record that the Falcons (40-1) are my long-shot value pick to win the Super Bowl, so I have to be confident they'll easily get over their relatively low total. The Falcons were 8-8 last year after starting 5-0 and also were good enough to spoil the Carolina Panthers' perfect season. After the Falcons open against the Buccaneers, Raiders and Saints, they host the Panthers in a key matchup.
They have a big three in Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, and they've already started making improvements on the defensive side -- and we haven't even had the draft yet. I believe coach Dan Quinn, former architect of the Seattle defense, will continue to build this defense. This total is actually pretty low at 7, though there is heavy juice on the over. It's nice to have the insurance in case they were to go only 7-9, but I'll probably wait to see if I can go over 7.5 with better odds.
Carolina Panthers (under 10.5)
Price: +125
It's not too surprising that my second-best pick is an under on a team in the same division. The Panthers had everything go their way last year and now it's not going to be an "S" on Cam Newton's chest but a bull's-eye as the Panthers will get every team's top effort. That's part of the reason we see Super Bowl losers suffer from a hangover the next season. And now it looks like Josh Norman will be gone as well. In addition to having to play the defending champion Broncos on opening night, the Panthers have to face the rest of the AFC West while also playing a first-place schedule. I believe 10-6 would be a very respectable follow-up and that would still cash the under for us (and at the juicy price of +125).
Houston Texans (over 8)
Price: -140
The Texans are my top value team from the AFC, so again if I'm looking for them to make a deep run the playoffs, I need them to at least win their division and hopefully get a first-round bye. The Texans started 1-4 last year and clearly got better as the season progressed, finishing 9-7. If they had the same team returning, I would expect at least a repeat of that 9-7 mark and yet they've added Brock Osweiler to replace Brian Hoyer (and the rest of the revolving door) at QB and Lamar Miller at RB to go with a defense (ranked No. 3 last year) that should continue to improve.
Dallas Cowboys (under 9)
Price: -145
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</article>Tony Romo is back and supposedly healthy, so that's why the Cowboys are posted at over/under nine wins. I'm not buying it; I'm selling. For one thing, there's no guarantee Romo will make it through the whole season, in which case the under is definitely the right side. But even if he plays the whole year, the NFC East teams should continue beating up on each other and it won't be easy for anyone to get to double-digit wins. The Cowboys are more likely in my mind to be .500 or even worse as they have to face the AFC North (well, they might get one win against Cleveland) and travel to Green Bay and Minnesota. I'm not thrilled with laying the heavy juice, so I'll be looking to go under 8.5 at better odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers (over 10.5)
Price: -105
The Steelers were my long-shot pick to win the Super Bowl last season and despite all their injuries they were right there (leading the Broncos in the fourth quarter before a fumble from a fourth-string running back -- but, hey, I'm not bitter!). Anyway, I look for them to be dominant this year and to go over this relatively high total (though I like that it's only costing me -105) as their toughest non-division games against the Patriots and Chiefs are both at Heinz Field. Happy handicapping to everyone and we'll revisit the over/under win totals for all 32 teams after the draft.
