How To Bet Sunday Nights Red Sox-Astros Game

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[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Red Sox-Astros matchup[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INISDER

The Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball in a game between two teams that are looking to turn things around after slow starts.
The Astros, last year's Cinderella story, are in last place in the AL West, and only three teams in the majors (Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins) have a worse record than Houston's 6-12 mark. The Red Sox are 8-9 and in third place in the AL East. This is the finale of a three-game set in which the Red Sox won Friday night's opener and the Astros bounced back on Saturday.
Here at ESPN Chalk, we try to end your baseball betting week on a winning note as we break down the Sunday night game. Last week (as our 2016 debut was rained out the week before), Dave Tuley got off to a 1-0 start with his play on under 7.5 in the San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers game (the Dodgers won 3-1). Joe Peta and Andrew Lange both lost with the Giants.
Let's see how our three experts fare this time around.
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Westgate line: Houston Astros -115/Boston Red Sox +105
Over/under: 9 runs
PickCenter Intel

Joe Peta: It didn't get as much attention as their soaring home run total -- which increased nearly 75 percent from 2013 to 2015 -- but another huge factor in the Houston Astros' transformation from worst team in baseball to postseason participant in just two seasons was their improved defense. One of the reasons for overlooking the role of glove work is that home runs are easy to count; while defense might be noticed at the individual level, it's much harder to quantify the effectiveness of improved team defense. Houston's rank in adjusted defensive efficiency -- which measures a team's ability to turn batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners via double plays, getting caught stealing, etc. -- went from 26th to eighth in that time period. That alone lowers the entire pitching staff's ERA by nearly half a run.
Yet, there was something interesting about last year's defensive surge from bottom quartile to top quartile: The Astros had the top-rated defense through 40 games, and second-rated defense through 81 games. In dropping to eighth by season's end, they were actually a below-average defense for the second half of the season, and that trend has continued into 2016. Through the first three weeks of this young season, the Astros rank 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency. (A really interesting note is that the Astros' team defense appears to have gotten worse since the addition of shortstop Carlos Correa to the lineup, which is exactly opposite the effect Francisco Lindor has had on the Indians since his promotion to starting shortstop at nearly the same time as Correa's promotion.)
It's still too early in the season for me to adjust individual projections for 2016 from either the batter or the pitcher perspective, but I do start to make adjustments for each team's bullpen and defensive units because they tend to be indicative of performance going forward. Of course, there are other factors at play in handicapping this matchup, and some of them will be covered by our other handicappers. But my downgrade of Houston's defense almost certainly means I'm projecting more runs allowed by Houston pitchers than the oddsmakers, and that's what drives tonight's selection.
Tonight's price falls under the "wrong team favored" heading for me. Give me the Red Sox.
ESPN Chalk pick: Boston Red Sox +105.

Andrew Lange: Former first-round pick Henry Owens was recently called up following an injury to Joe Kelly. Owens has lots of upside and benefited from last year's 63 innings even though he probably wasn't MLB-ready. Out of his 11 starts last year, he allowed four or fewer runs and recorded 10 or more swinging strikes eight times. And despite coming from the left side, throughout his career, he has actually been tougher on the right-handed bat, which isn't a bad fit against Houston's lineup.
Scott Feldman is who he is at this point -- a soft-tossing right-hander who doesn't miss many bats. He's been serviceable the past few seasons thanks to a low walk rate and a ground-ball rate just shy of 50 percent.
One aspect that really hurts the Red Sox is the injury to Xander Bogaerts(wrist). Bogaerts is a plus defender and had been producing at the plate (.277 BA/.432 OBP). His range becomes even more impactful with a lefty on the hill. Instead, with Bogaerts out, Brock Holt moves over from left field and Chris Young, who can't hit righties, is now in the lineup.
As mentioned, Owens has potential, but he just doesn't have the command at this point to project to have many shutdown performances. Houston is a free-swinging club, but it'll make you pay if you routinely fall behind in the count. I'll be watching Owens closely as it's likely he'll see multiple starts moving forward. I'm not a big fan of Feldman (or his price tag), but I'd feel more comfortable with the veteran rather than the unproven youngster on the road.
ESPN Chalk pick: Houston Astros -115 (lean).

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</article>Dave Tuley: Scott Feldman isn't off to a good start at 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA, but those are heavily skewed by his two road losses. He did much better in his lone home start as he allowed just two runs (and both were unearned) in seven innings against the Kansas City Royals in a non-decision on April 13. As Lange mentions above, the possible absence of Bogaerts would help Feldman's cause. Henry Owens makes his season debut after making three starts for Triple-A Pawtucket with a sterling 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. I lean to the Astros in this game (though it's interesting to note how this line opened in the -125 to -130 range yesterday, so the early steam was on the Red Sox), but I wouldn't expect them to light up Owens, so I think the under is the stronger play here.
Tony Randazzo doesn't have a huge reputation as an under umpire -- I remember considering him as more of an over ump earlier in his career -- but the under went 15-4 in games he was behind the plate in 2014, 16-13 last year and 2-0 this season, so he's not going to hurt Owens and Feldman tonight.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 9.
 

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Good read.....Should be a good Sunday nighter.
 

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