[h=1]The Stanley Cup case for the Sharks[/h]Matthew CollerHockey Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER
The San Jose Sharks' five-game series win over the Los Angeles Kings was the biggest bracket buster of the quarterfinal round. The Kings were not only the better team in the standings during the regular season and the better team in terms of Corsi for percentage, but Los Angeles entered with the reputation of being clutch in the playoffs, while San Jose was best known for bowing out early -- the last time was in 2014, when they blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings.
However, a closer look at the Sharks reveals that they should have been -- and still should be -- considered the statistical favorite to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup finals.
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[h=2]The Couture effect[/h]The rise of the 2015-16 Sharks as a superpower goes back to a regular old game on Dec. 30. San Jose beat a struggling Philadelphia Flyers club 4-2 on the back of three power-play goals. The routine victory was driven by the third star of the game, Logan Couture, who returned to the lineup for the first time in 21 days and played just his sixth game of the season.
Before Dec. 30, with Couture mostly out, the Sharks went 17-16-2. Following his return, they finished the season on a 29-14-4 run and were the best team in the West by many metrics in a four-month span entering the postseason.
While much was made of the Kings being the No. 1 team in Corsi for percentage in the NHL this season, from Dec. 30 until the end of the regular season, the Sharks were No. 2 and outscored opponents by 23 goals at even strength, which was nine more than the Kings. During that time period, the Sharks drew 23 more penalties than they took, while the Kings were minus-16 in that category. It should come as no shock that San Jose finished the first-round series with a plus-5 penalty differential and five power-play goals.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Sharks Stats Since Dec. 30</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside>Couture's play was not the only reason the Sharks played at an elite level after Dec. 30, but his effect was significant. Not only did he score 34 points in 46 games after he came back from injury, he added a dominant 53.1 Corsi for percentage and stability to San Jose's deep pen of forwards. San Jose finished the season with eight forwards posting more than 20 points.
New head coach Pete DeBoer utilized Couture's two-way skill by regularly matching him up against tough competition, opening up offensively gifted No. 2 center Patrick Marleau to face weaker opponents.
In Game 4 of the opening round, DeBoer deployed Couture's line against Jeff Carter for 6:58 and Anze Kopitar for 3:02. In the 10 minutes Couture spent against Los Angeles' top two centers, the Sharks allowed four total shots on goal. Marleau spent 8:29 seconds of 5-on-5 time against the Kings' weakest defensive player, Vincent Lecavalier, and only 2:17 against Kopitar.
[h=2]Improved depth and goaltending[/h]While Couture has been the most obvious difference-maker, he isn't the only player who has created depth and stability for the Sharks. The offseason additions of defenseman Paul Martin, wingers Joel Ward and Joonas Donskoiand goaltender Martin Jones have been vital to their success.
The Sharks signed Martin to a four-year, $19.4 million contract, raising plenty of eyebrows considering he was 34 years old (now 35), and had played nearly 700 NHL games before putting on a San Jose uniform. But the first season of his contract has been a major success. Martin and his partner Brent Burnscombined for a 55.8 goals for percentage and 52.3 Corsi for percentage at even strength.
Burns may have received the most notoriety because of his impressive scoring totals, but Martin provided smart, steady play that has been missing since San Jose moved Burns back to defense. Burns spent between 200 and 400 minutes with five different partners last season. Of Martin's 1,365 minutes at even strength this season, 81.5 percent were played alongside Burns.
Up front, Ward and Donskoi combined for 32 goals and 47 assists this season, and both had plus-2.2 percent relative Corsi ratings at even strength -- meaning the Sharks were 2.2 percent better with them on the ice than off. The two wingers, who have often spent time on a line with Couture, are a major part of San Jose's success through depth. Even when they won 51 games and reached the Western Conference finals in 2009-10, the Sharks did not have an impressive group past their big guns. Only six forwards on the 2009-10 Sharks had more than 20 points.
Of course, without the solid play of Jones, the Sharks may not have gotten past the Kings. In five games, he managed a .912 save percentage and produced quality starts (better than .915 save percentage) in three of the five games. The Sharks should be confident in their 26-year-old goalie, who has an excellent .919 career save percentage.
In the narrative machine, players like Joe Thornton, Marleau and Joe Pavelskihave often been labeled chokers, but goaltending played a huge role in three of San Jose's recent disappointing finishes. Evgeni Nabokov had save percentages of .907, .890 and .907 in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 playoffs. Antti Niemi had an excellent 2013 playoffs, but melted down the following year, allowing 19 goals in six games.
[h=2]Putting history behind them[/h]The Sharks are better positioned from top to bottom to win the Stanley Cup than they have been in a long time, but in order to exorcize their demons, superstars will have to be superstars. During the regular season and the opening series against the seemingly unbeatable Kings, they were.
With Thornton on the ice this season, San Jose outscored opponents 3.48 to 1.44 per 60 minutes at even strength, good for a league-leading 70.7 goals for percentage. He scored three points in the opening series and played nearly 20 minutes per game, while Pavelski had five goals in the five-game series.
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</article>Whether the Sharks face the Anaheim Ducks or Nashville Predators, they will be in for a challenging matchup against an opponent with equal or greater playoff-related baggage. The Ducks were one game away from the Stanley Cup finals last year and were blown out by the Blackhawks, whereas the Predators have never advanced past the conference semifinal despite making the postseason seven times in eight years between 2004 and 2012. Both the Preds and Ducks were elite puck-possession teams this season, ranking fourth and fifth respectively in Corsi for percentage.
You wouldn't expect any easy matchups past the first round in the playoffs, but these will be particularly difficult. One factor that might help the Sharks is finishing off the Kings quickly and gaining some recovery time while their opponents battle into a sixth and possibly seventh game.
Like any team, the Sharks' chances at a Stanley Cup finals appearance also depend on luck, bounces, coaches challenges, no-calls and injuries. But if all those things are even, San Jose has the best team in the West right now, and every opportunity to finally break the shackles of their playoff past.
ESPN INSIDER
The San Jose Sharks' five-game series win over the Los Angeles Kings was the biggest bracket buster of the quarterfinal round. The Kings were not only the better team in the standings during the regular season and the better team in terms of Corsi for percentage, but Los Angeles entered with the reputation of being clutch in the playoffs, while San Jose was best known for bowing out early -- the last time was in 2014, when they blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings.
However, a closer look at the Sharks reveals that they should have been -- and still should be -- considered the statistical favorite to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup finals.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]The Couture effect[/h]The rise of the 2015-16 Sharks as a superpower goes back to a regular old game on Dec. 30. San Jose beat a struggling Philadelphia Flyers club 4-2 on the back of three power-play goals. The routine victory was driven by the third star of the game, Logan Couture, who returned to the lineup for the first time in 21 days and played just his sixth game of the season.
Before Dec. 30, with Couture mostly out, the Sharks went 17-16-2. Following his return, they finished the season on a 29-14-4 run and were the best team in the West by many metrics in a four-month span entering the postseason.
While much was made of the Kings being the No. 1 team in Corsi for percentage in the NHL this season, from Dec. 30 until the end of the regular season, the Sharks were No. 2 and outscored opponents by 23 goals at even strength, which was nine more than the Kings. During that time period, the Sharks drew 23 more penalties than they took, while the Kings were minus-16 in that category. It should come as no shock that San Jose finished the first-round series with a plus-5 penalty differential and five power-play goals.
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| STAT | VALUE | WESTERN CONFERENCE RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Even-strength goal differential | Plus-23 | 1 |
| Corsi for percentage | 52.7 | 2 |
| Penalty differential | Plus-23 | 2 |
| Power-play goals | 31 | 2 |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Sharks Stats Since Dec. 30</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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New head coach Pete DeBoer utilized Couture's two-way skill by regularly matching him up against tough competition, opening up offensively gifted No. 2 center Patrick Marleau to face weaker opponents.
In Game 4 of the opening round, DeBoer deployed Couture's line against Jeff Carter for 6:58 and Anze Kopitar for 3:02. In the 10 minutes Couture spent against Los Angeles' top two centers, the Sharks allowed four total shots on goal. Marleau spent 8:29 seconds of 5-on-5 time against the Kings' weakest defensive player, Vincent Lecavalier, and only 2:17 against Kopitar.
[h=2]Improved depth and goaltending[/h]While Couture has been the most obvious difference-maker, he isn't the only player who has created depth and stability for the Sharks. The offseason additions of defenseman Paul Martin, wingers Joel Ward and Joonas Donskoiand goaltender Martin Jones have been vital to their success.
The Sharks signed Martin to a four-year, $19.4 million contract, raising plenty of eyebrows considering he was 34 years old (now 35), and had played nearly 700 NHL games before putting on a San Jose uniform. But the first season of his contract has been a major success. Martin and his partner Brent Burnscombined for a 55.8 goals for percentage and 52.3 Corsi for percentage at even strength.
Burns may have received the most notoriety because of his impressive scoring totals, but Martin provided smart, steady play that has been missing since San Jose moved Burns back to defense. Burns spent between 200 and 400 minutes with five different partners last season. Of Martin's 1,365 minutes at even strength this season, 81.5 percent were played alongside Burns.
Up front, Ward and Donskoi combined for 32 goals and 47 assists this season, and both had plus-2.2 percent relative Corsi ratings at even strength -- meaning the Sharks were 2.2 percent better with them on the ice than off. The two wingers, who have often spent time on a line with Couture, are a major part of San Jose's success through depth. Even when they won 51 games and reached the Western Conference finals in 2009-10, the Sharks did not have an impressive group past their big guns. Only six forwards on the 2009-10 Sharks had more than 20 points.
Of course, without the solid play of Jones, the Sharks may not have gotten past the Kings. In five games, he managed a .912 save percentage and produced quality starts (better than .915 save percentage) in three of the five games. The Sharks should be confident in their 26-year-old goalie, who has an excellent .919 career save percentage.
In the narrative machine, players like Joe Thornton, Marleau and Joe Pavelskihave often been labeled chokers, but goaltending played a huge role in three of San Jose's recent disappointing finishes. Evgeni Nabokov had save percentages of .907, .890 and .907 in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 playoffs. Antti Niemi had an excellent 2013 playoffs, but melted down the following year, allowing 19 goals in six games.
[h=2]Putting history behind them[/h]The Sharks are better positioned from top to bottom to win the Stanley Cup than they have been in a long time, but in order to exorcize their demons, superstars will have to be superstars. During the regular season and the opening series against the seemingly unbeatable Kings, they were.
With Thornton on the ice this season, San Jose outscored opponents 3.48 to 1.44 per 60 minutes at even strength, good for a league-leading 70.7 goals for percentage. He scored three points in the opening series and played nearly 20 minutes per game, while Pavelski had five goals in the five-game series.
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</article>Whether the Sharks face the Anaheim Ducks or Nashville Predators, they will be in for a challenging matchup against an opponent with equal or greater playoff-related baggage. The Ducks were one game away from the Stanley Cup finals last year and were blown out by the Blackhawks, whereas the Predators have never advanced past the conference semifinal despite making the postseason seven times in eight years between 2004 and 2012. Both the Preds and Ducks were elite puck-possession teams this season, ranking fourth and fifth respectively in Corsi for percentage.
You wouldn't expect any easy matchups past the first round in the playoffs, but these will be particularly difficult. One factor that might help the Sharks is finishing off the Kings quickly and gaining some recovery time while their opponents battle into a sixth and possibly seventh game.
Like any team, the Sharks' chances at a Stanley Cup finals appearance also depend on luck, bounces, coaches challenges, no-calls and injuries. But if all those things are even, San Jose has the best team in the West right now, and every opportunity to finally break the shackles of their playoff past.
