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GEICO 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have combined to win the past four races on the schedule, but they'll have plenty more competition in Sunday's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway as up to 35 of the 40 drivers starting have a chance to win.

It's restrictor-plate racing that is the equalizer and we get it in only four races a year, but the 2.66-mile high-banked beast of a layout at Talladega is in a class all its own. So let's get ready for some edge-of-your seat, four-wide, side-by-side racing at over 200 mph.

As much as I enjoy the intensity of races at Talladega, where at any moment the 'big one' can happen, and up to 20 drivers have a chance of winning as they begin the last lap, it's actually one of the least bet races of the season for me just because the track is so volatile. I rarely play driver matchups and my normal cash wagered on odds to win is about about 30 percent less than the 32 non-plate races.

Practices mean nothing in plate races and the drivers I bet on have a much better chance of being involved in a wreck at Talladega than anywhere else. You can be cruising along with your driver, leading a bunch of laps, get shuffled out of the lead pack for a bit of the race and then, Boom! Your driver gets caught up in some other drivers mess that started 18 cars in front. It's a casualty of the track not seen as much elsewhere, which adds a randomness to the ratings equation that I don't like too much.

Because of that randomness and the cars being more equal than any other type of track, the books give you some very fair odds on all the regular favorites, but they also drop the normal 100/1 odds on lower level drivers down to 50/1, because anybody can win. I like narrowing down six drivers a week and then watching them practice and whittle it down to four or five to key on. It's harder here and luck plays a huge role. Crap shoot. Darts.

But it's a NASCAR race, and we have to bet it. We wait all week and have gone over all the trends. We get fired up because the sheer power of Talladega is intoxicating to watch, and having a bet on any sporting event you plan to watch just makes it bigger, meaningful and justified. "I didn't just waste three hours of my life watching cars go in circles real fast, I was investing for the future."

To begin the handicapping process for Sunday's race, you'll want to start with what happened in February during Daytona speedweeks where Denny Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500. I'll also suggest that you throw out everything that has happened in the past eight races, where JGR cars have been dominating.

The only problem is that the Daytona results all show JGR cars dominating as well. Hamlin won the Daytona 500 by 0.01 seconds over Martin Truex Jr. who was using Gibbs equipment. Kyle Busch was third and Carl Edwards was fifth. Four of the top-five in Gibbs Toyota's with Matt Kenseth finishing 14th after leading 40 laps (second-most). Kenseth is very due to win somewhere.

The best bet to derail the JGR train this week is six-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won this race last season. He's won in three of the past nine plate races and his 960 laps led at Talladega is more than twice as much as second most (Jimmie Johnson 467). He's been close to winning a race (three runner-ups) this season and I like him the most to get it done this week.

I also will surely have a wager on my boy Denny Hamlin. I call him 'my boy' because he drove my bets to the cash window twice in February at 15/1 odds by winning the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 in back-to-back weeks. In my own world, he's like family now -- inducted into my betting Hall of Fame with Terrell Davis. It's been my best score of the year and is enough units to carry me for the season if I don't win another race. There weren't many losses because I basically threw all the chips on the No. 11 for each race. It was part luck, but also part skill with Hamlin who leads the series with a 9th-place average finish in the past nine plate races. He won this race in 2014, and his team has this plate package figured out. He won't be able to use his winning Daytona 500 chassis because it's on display for fans in Daytona, so the Sprint Unlimited winner will be used.

There's no bad bet at Talladega until it loses. The cars are so bunched up and so equal that all it takes is being able to stay close and make that winning move on the last lap. With luck being so huge, I often rely on a myriad of hexes and midstream change of game day gear to help get my contending driver get that little extra push from Lady Luck.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)

Drivers to Watch - Talladega

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
GEICO 500
Sunday, May 1 – 1:15 p.m. EDT
Talladega Superspeedway, Lincoln, AL

The Sprint Cup Series heads to Lincoln for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday. This is one of four Sprint Cup Series races where the drivers have restrictor plates on their cars.

The one guy that will be ready to head out on this track on Sunday is Dale Earnhardt Jr., as he was the winner here in 2015. Earnhardt Jr. also won here in 2002 and 2003, so he will clearly have plenty of confidence coming into this one.

Other multiple winners that are included in this field are Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski. Johnson won this race in 2006 and 2011 and Keselowski was the winner in 2009 and 2012.

With that out of the way let’s now take a look at some of the better plays in this weekend’s race:

Drivers to Watch

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800) - Earnhardt Jr. is the favorite to win this one and it’d be some great timing for him to come away with a victory. Earnhardt Jr. has had a bit of a disappointing season, as he has not yet won a race. He has, however, finished in second on three separate occasions and is due for a victory soon. There are not going to be many better opportunities for him to win than this Sunday. Earnhardt Jr. has owned Talladega throughout his career, winning six times at this venue. As previously mentioned, he has also won this race three times. He’s a good person to back, as he’d still payout nicely at this price.

Joey Logano (+1100) - Like Earnhardt Jr., Logano is still searching for his first victory of the season and he is going to get one soon. He is one of the best drivers in the world and it’s just tough to imagine him continuing to struggle. Logano also happens to have had some success at this track in the past. While he has never won this exact race, he did win here in the 2015 CampingWorld.com 500. That gives him some good experience and he’ll be hoping to build on that on Sunday. He’s a very good pick this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (+1200) - Keselowski has had a solid season, as he won the Kobalt 400 earlier in the year and also has three other top-10 finishes. He has, however, missed the top-10 at each of the past three races. That is something that should change on Sunday, as he’ll be looking to lead the pack this weekend. Keselowski has had a ton of success at Talladega in his career and has now won this race twice. He is getting favorable odds and those are hard to pass up on for a guy who has had his success at the Geico 500.

Tony Stewart (+3000) - Stewart made his return to the track last week and finished in 19th. He knocked off some of his rust and will now be hoping to come away with a victory on Sunday. While he has not won since 2013, he is still a guy that is extremely hard to count out. He has a long history of winning races and he will be hoping to win one big race in his final Sprint Cup season. He’s worth putting a half-unit on this weekend, as he would pay out huge and there is a lot of randomness that comes with this event.

Preview: Stars (50-23) at Blues (49-24)

Date: May 01, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

Scoring depth and dependable goaltending are believed to be the Dallas Stars' biggest obstacles to a Stanley Cup run.

They showed they're capable of both in Game 1 of their second-round series with the St. Louis Blues.

As Dallas tries to build off a strong all-around performance, the Blues know they'll need an improved effort Sunday to draw even.

The Stars dictated play throughout much of Friday's 2-1 victory, though the outcome remained in doubt until the end. Rookie Radek Faksa scored the tiebreaking goal on a rebound with 4:44 remaining, and Kari Lehtonen withstood a furious St. Louis surge in the final minutes to maintain Dallas' home-ice advantage.

On a night when Tyler Seguin remained out of the lineup and Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza weren't major factors, the Stars received a big lift from their third line of Faksa, Antoine Roussel and Alex Hemsky. The trio accounted for both goals, with the 22-year-old Faksa setting up Roussel for the game's initial score midway through the second.

"He's a heck of a player," Spezza said of Faksa, who spent much of the regular season in the AHL. "He's always in the right spot.'

Lehtonen played a key role as well, recording 14 of his 31 saves in the final period. The 12-year veteran improved to 4-1 with a 2.01 goals-against average this postseason, bringing some needed stability to a goaltending position that was often a weakness during the regular season as he and Antti Niemi split time.

Dallas led the NHL with 265 goals en route to edging the Blues for the West's best record, with much of that production coming from its core of Benn, Seguin, Spezza and Patrick Sharp. That also was the case in its opening-round series with Minnesota in which Benn, Spezza and Sharp registered 11 of the team's 21 goals.

With better balance likely key to advancing against one of the league's stingiest defensive teams, Friday's result has to be viewed as encouraging.

"I thought we played a good game," Stars coach Lindy Ruff said. "I thought our energy was good and got better as the game went on. I thought we skated well. I thought we defended well. I thought we were physical. That's a good start to the series for us."

For St. Louis, the goal will be regaining the intensity and physicality it displayed in a grueling seven-game series with rival Chicago. The Blues came out sluggish in Game 1, with Dallas owning a 31-17 shot advantage over the first two periods and finishing with a 32-26 edge in hits.

St. Louis outhit the Blackhawks 283-206 in the opening round, while Dallas ranked 26th in the league in that category during the regular season.

"They outplayed us and deserved to win this one," captain David Backes said. "We need to regroup and find our game and play for a full 60 minutes like we did in the first series. I think we will be just fine. It's going to be another long, tight, hard hitting, fun matchup; but we have to get to our game sooner and for longer."

Getting Vladimir Tarasenko back on track is another priority. The Blues' top scorer has been held to one goal over the last four games after recording three with two assists over the first four of the Chicago series.

St. Louis does continue to receive solid work from Brian Elliott, who kept the Blues in the opener with 40 saves.

Elliott again won't have to deal with Seguin, who has played just once in these playoffs due to a lingering Achilles injury. Forward Patrick Eaves, who had five points in the Minnesota series, is also out after exiting Game 1 with a foot injury.

Preview: Predators (41-27) at Sharks (46-30)

Date: May 01, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

San Jose's Peter DeBoer and Nashville's Peter Laviolette acknowledged after their second-round series opener that their teams can play better.

While that may sound like coachspeak, such remarks are appropriate after the Sharks struggled for the first 40 minutes and the Predators floundered in the last 20.

San Jose took Game 1 behind a dominant third period and will look to go up 2-0 on Sunday night before the series shifts to Nashville.

Playing for the first time in a week after eliminating Los Angeles in the first round, the Sharks came out a bit rusty Friday against the Predators. They entered the third period down 1-0 before erupting for five goals to rally for a 5-2 victory.

"Coming off the break, we had some questions of how we would be. I saw some of the effects of that the first two periods. We found a way," DeBoer said. "To be able to come out of Game 1 with a win even though I think we didn't play our best 60 minutes is good because I think we'll be better in Game 2."

Former Predators forward Joel Ward set up Tomas Hertl's power-play goal that tied the game early in the third before scoring the tiebreaker with 8:11 remaining. Logan Couture added a power-play goal and an empty-netter, and Tommy Wingels sealed it with another empty-net goal in the final minute.

'As the game went on we got better, and we could feel them on their heels a little bit,' captain Joe Pavelski said. 'It was just good to see the guys keep feeding off the crowd, feeding off goals and really pushing for that next one.'

The Predators, who had just one day off after their Game 7 win in Anaheim, knew they had to play smart because they were going up against a team that had been locked in on the power play. They only took one penalty in the first two periods but allowed the Sharks to score on both of their man-advantage opportunities in the third.

San Jose has converted 29.2 percent of 24 power-play chances in the playoffs, going 5 for 7 in its last two home games, while Nashville has killed 78.6 percent of 28 penalties.

"We know they're dangerous on the power play and we can't put ourselves in that position too many times cause they're going to score goals," Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm said.

One bright spot for the Predators is they went 1 for 2 on the power play after going 1 for 26 in the Ducks series. Mike Fisher had the man-advantage goal early in the second period, and Ryan Johansen scored late in the third after Pekka Rinne was pulled for an extra skater.

"I thought it was an even game until they scored that third goal, so there's so positives, there's some negatives," Ekholm said. "But it's Game 1 out of seven, so we'll come back for Game 2."

Martin Jones made 29 saves for San Jose, which improved to 9-2 in the playoffs against Nashville.

The Sharks, who took a 2-0 series lead en route to beating the Kings in five games, are 7-2 in playoff series when winning the first two games.

Rinne stopped 33 of 36 shots for the Predators, who have been inconsistent defensively in their last five playoff games, surrendering 14 goals in three losses and two in a pair of wins.

"There were some good things and some bad things," Laviolette said. "We're capable of playing better."

NHL

Sunday's games

St Louis-Dallas (D 1-0)
Blues had won six of last seven games with Dallas before Stars' 2-1 win in Game 1; home team won five of last six series games, with seven of last nine staying under total. Last three St Louis series wins all came in OT or SO-- Blues won three of last five games in this building, but they've lost three of last four games overall, with lone win Game 7 vs Chicago in last series. Dallas won sevne of last nine games, including five of last six at home; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Stars outshot St Louis 42-32 in Game 1; they were 0-3 on power play, St Louis 0-2. .

Nashville-San Jose (SJ 1-0)
Sharks exploded for five third period goals to win Game 1, after Nashville led 1-0 after second period; San Jose outshot Preds 13-9 in third period, was 2-3 on power play- Nashville was 1-2. Predators lost three of last four games here; they've lost four of last six games overall. San Jose had five extra days to prep after beating LA in five game sin first round; Sharks won eight of last ten games overall- they've lost six of last ten games with Nashville, but won last two. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.

Playoffs tally: 1st round-- Home: 23-24, Over: 16-17-14
2nd round-- Home: 4-2, Over: 3-2-1

Hornets at Heat

CHARLOTE HORNETS (51-37) at MIAMI HEAT (51-37)
Eastern Conference – Round 1
Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 191

The Heat host the Hornets in a win or go home Game 7 at American Airlines Arena on Sunday.

Charlotte had a chance to closeout this series at home, but the team was unable to put away a desperate Miami team. The Heat were two-point underdogs in the game, but they ended up winning 97-90. One of the big differences in the game was that Miami outrebounded Charlotte 52-43. The Heat also shot 45.8% from the floor and held the Hornets to just 42.1%.

Miami will be confident coming into this one, as the team is 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS when hosting Charlotte over the past three seasons. The Heat are also 15-7 ATS after having lost two of their past three games this season.

Charlotte, however, is 9-1 ATS in road games revenging a SU loss as a favorite versus an opponent over the past two seasons.

SF Nicolas Batum (Ankle) is listed as questionable for the Hornets, who are without C Spencer Hawes (MCL) and SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Shoulder) for the rest of the season. The Heat remain without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) indefinitely.

The Hornets are going to be kicking themselves after having a chance to win this series on Friday night. Now they’ll need to turn around and find a way to beat the Heat in Miami once again on Sunday.

One guy that will be ready for this one is PG Kemba Walker (25.0 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs). Walker had 37 points and five assists in Game 6 and was truly outstanding for his team. He was hitting all of his jumpers and blew by Miami’s defenders to finish at the rim whenever he wanted. He’ll need to be aggressive as a scorer once again in Game 7.

C Al Jefferson (14.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG in playoffs) could be the guy that steps up and helps Walker in this one. He played well in Game 6, finishing the game with 18 points and nine boards in 30 minutes of action. The Heat have more athletic bigs than Jefferson, but he is a lot stronger than them and knows how to use his body around the basket. He’ll need to come away with a solid performance on both ends of the floor.

The Heat desperately needed a victory on Friday and SG Dwyane Wade (20.2 PPG, 5.7 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) delivered it for the team with a huge performance. Wade had 23 points, six boards, four assists, three blocks and two steals in Game 6. He was finishing around the rim, but he was also knocking down jumpers and that was something that he did not do this season. Miami will need Wade to come through once again on Sunday.

C Hassan Whiteside (13.7 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 3.2 BPG in playoffs) will also be big for this Heat team in Game 7. He had 12 points, seven boards and four blocks in Game 6 but he did foul out of that one. He’ll need to stay on the floor in this one, as he is important on both ends of the court for Miami.

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 121 Game 7’s in playoff history

-- The home team is 97-24 (80%) in those games

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.

-- The 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs.

Charlotte Game 7 History (0-1)

2001 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Charlotte 95 at Milwaukee 104

Miami Game 7 History (5-3)

1997 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Miami 101 vs. New York 90

2000 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Miami 82 vs. New York 83

2004 Eastern Conference First Round
Miami 85 New Orleans 77

2005 Eastern Conference Finals
Miami 82 vs. Detroit 88

2009 Eastern Conference First Round
Miami 78 at Atlanta 91

2012 Eastern Conference Finals
Miami 101 vs. Boston 88

2013 Eastern Conference Finals
Miami 99 vs. Indiana 76

2013 NBA Finals
Miami 95 vs. San Antonio 88

Indiana Game 7 History (3-4)
1994 Eastern Conference Finals
Indiana 90 at New York 94

1995 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Indiana 97 at New York 95

1995 Eastern Conference Finals
Indiana 81 at Orlando 105

1998 Eastern Conference Finals
Indiana 83 at Chicago 88

2005 Eastern Conference First Round
Indiana 97 at Boston 70

2013 Eastern Conference Finals
Indiana 76 at Miami 99

2014 Eastern Conference First Round
Indiana 92 vs. Atlanta 80

Toronto Game 7 History (0-2)
2001 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Toronto 87 at Philadelphia 88

2014 Eastern Conference First Round
Toronto 103 vs. Brooklyn 104 (OT)

All-Time Game 7 Road Winners

Year Road Team Home Team Round

2014 Brooklyn 104 Toronto 103 First round
2013 Chicago 99 Brooklyn 93 First round
2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round
2009 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals
(*) Asterisk denotes overtime

Preview: Hornets (48-34) at Heat (48-34)

Date: May 01, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Miami Heat will try to lean on their veterans once again to come out on top in a back-and-forth opening-round series.

Most of the Charlotte Hornets' top players, meanwhile, will experience a Game 7 for the first time and the franchise will play just the second in its history Sunday in Miami.

Dwyane Wade scored 23 points and made his first 3-point shot since Dec. 16, ending an 0-for-21 drought, in a 97-90 victory in Charlotte on Friday. His second of two successful shots from beyond the arc came with Miami clinging to a two-point lead in the final minute, and he also blocked Kemba Walker's layup attempt with 16 seconds to go.

"Dwyane feels most alive when the competition is at its highest and games feel like this," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "He was brilliant on both ends."

The Heat also used Luol Deng's 21 points to stave off elimination. The 12th-year forward is averaging 19.7 points in this series, 7.4 more than in the regular season.

"It's important to have veteran players that understand a competitive seven-game series," Spoelstra said. "There's so much narrative out there after each game. It feels like Pat (Riley) used to always say, 'It's winning or misery in the playoffs.' It's so true. It's one or the other.

"You need to have veteran players that understand that and can manage all the emotions and bring out their best."

Wade has played in six of Miami's eight all-time Game 7's. The Heat are 5-3 in those contests, beating San Antonio for the 2013 NBA title in their most recent.

Walker, who registered his career playoff high with 37 points Friday, will play his first Game 7 as will two of the team's other top scorers, Jeremy Lin and Cody Zeller. Nicolas Batum would play his first as well if he's healthy enough after leaving Game 6 with a strained left foot.

Even veteran center Al Jefferson is a relative newbie to Game 7s, having played his only one in his 2004-05 rookie season with Boston. The Hornets will experience their first since losing to Milwaukee in the 2001 Eastern Conference semifinals.

"It's do or die. Both teams want to advance. It's going to be a battle just like this whole series," Walker said. "There's a reason we're going to a Game 7 and it's because both teams have been scratching and clawing to get some wins."

Miami's chances of winning might come down to 3-point shooting. The Heat have connected at 50 percent or better from beyond the arc in their three wins and a combined 33.3 in three defeats, including 5 for 18 in a 90-88 loss in Game 5 on Wednesday.

The Hornets were 12 of 24 from 3-point range in that victory but that has proved an anomaly so far. They were 5 of 17 in Game 6 and have connected at less than 30 percent in four games, including 1 of 16 in Game 2.

Charlotte has shot a lackluster 40.9 percent overall in the series and has been outrebounded in all but one game. The Hornets let the Heat shoot better than 57 percent while failing behind 0-2 in the series but have since held them to 40.4 percent.

The Hornets have also overcome some wildly inconsistent performances from starting forward Marvin Williams, and that was most apparent in the past two games. He had 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting in Charlotte's victory in Miami on Wednesday but was held scoreless for the third time in the series while missing all seven shots Friday.

Williams has totaled 29 points on 12-of-19 shooting in two victories and tallied just two points while missing 28 of 29 attempts in the other four games.

Preview: Pacers (45-37) at Raptors (56-26)

Date: May 01, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

A Game 7 is always filled with pressure for any team involved. In this one, however, there's clearly more on the Toronto Raptors.

Even the Indiana Pacers' best player can't deny it.

Besides being a No. 2 seed and favored to oust Paul George and the Pacers, the Raptors have the benefit of playing at home for this win-or-go-home showdown but also the burden of trying to overcome the franchise's history of playoff failures.

"There's added pressure on them, being at home, their troubles getting out of the first round," George said. "It comes down to who wants it. And we feel good about it."

Toronto is the three-time reigning Atlantic Division champion but could fall in the first round for a third straight year, having been swept by Washington in 2015 after blowing a 3-2 series lead against Brooklyn in 2014. The Raptors are at risk of blowing another one after getting dominated in the second half to lose 101-83 in Indiana on Friday.

Not only have the Raptors never won a seven-game series, but the only time they've advanced out of the opening round in 21 years of existence came in 2001.

'The season would be a failure if we don't get out of the first round and give ourselves a chance to play in the second round,' Toronto top scorer DeMar DeRozan said. 'We understand that.'

No one should be feeling more pressure than him.

While George has stepped up to average 27.5 points, DeRozan is at 15.8 - nearly eight below his season average - as he's shot 32.1 percent from the field. He had a mere eight points for the second time in three games Friday. DeRozan shot the third-most free throws of anyone during the regular season but isn't among the top 10 in the playoffs while attempting 5 per game, nearly 3 1/2 fewer than his season average.

George, meanwhile, is 55 of 58 at the foul line.

"We've got an opportunity. That's it, man," DeRozan said. "We love to play this game. Everybody loves to play the game of basketball. You can't make it seem like a funeral."

Fellow All-Star guard Kyle Lowry has shot 27 percent from the field in three home games during the series, not that he's been much better in Indiana at 34 percent.

Lowry and DeRozan surely will be considered the goats if their stunningly poor offensive play continues in Game 7 and the Raptors bow out.

"We've got to grind it out," Lowry said. "We've got one more game. Win or go home and that's it."

George said he's "really looking forward" to Game 7. He had one of his worst offensive games of the series Friday with 21 points on 5-of-14 shooting, but he grabbed 11 rebounds as Indiana had a 44-40 edge on the glass.

Toronto hasn't won the rebounding battle in three straight games - the Pacers won twice and lost by three on the road. The Raptors dominated the boards in the first three games behind Jonas Valanciunas' 48 rebounds, but he has 20 in the last three.

What's changed? Myles Turner joined Indiana's starting lineup in Game 4 and has helped keep Valanciunas from dominating the paint. A 20-year-old rookie who stands 6-foot-11, Turner has averaged 14.5 points on 13-of-21 shooting in the past two games while totaling 17 rebounds and seven blocks.

"We understand the physicality, the style of play and what you have to do on the defensive end to get this job done," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said.

While the Raptors are 0-2 in Game 7s, the Pacers are 3-4 and most recently won one in the first round against Atlanta in 2014. They now look to become the sixth No. 7 seed to win an opening-round series since the playoffs expanded in 1984.

"We have to go in and impose our will early," George said. "They're going to have everything on their side at home, the crowd going crazy. If we continue on how we (played) to start Game 5, take the crowd out of it, let it just be about basketball, we'll be confident to leave Toronto with the series in our hands."

Sunday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds

Sunday is chalk full of great NBA action with a pair of Game 7's in the East sandwiching the second West semi final. We break down all the action so you can cap the games like a pro.


Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-6.5, 191)

Series tied 3-3

The Charlotte Hornets had a chance to close out the series at home but ran into a vintage performance from Dwyane Wade in Game 6. Now it’s the Miami Heat with a chance to clinch the best-of-7 series in front of their home fans, and they host the Hornets in the decisive Game 7 on Sunday.

Wade scored 10 of his team-high 23 points in the fourth quarter of Friday’s 97-90 triumph, including a pair of rare 3-pointers that helped seal the win. “I trust my teammates and I love them, but if we were going to lose, I was going out shooting it,” Wade told reporters. “At this point in my career, I play for these moments. ... It’s what makes you feel alive.” Kemba Walker tried to carry his team in the same manner and finished with 37 points on 14-of-30 shooting in the losing effort for the Hornets. “It’s always tough to lose, obviously,” Walker told reporters. “We made so many mistakes. We just have to be better. Of course I wish it had gone our way, but they just made great plays down the stretch, and they deserved to win.”

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 7-point home favorites for their winner-take-all Game 7 versus the Hornets. The line has been bet down to -6.5. The total has yet to move off the opening number of 191. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE HORNETS (51-37, 45-42-1 ATS, 42-44-1 O/U): Walker scored 14 of the team’s 20 points in the fourth quarter on Friday and could use a more consistent effort from the other perimeter players on the team. Small forward Marvin Williams and guards Courtney Lee, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lin have shined at times in the series but combined to go 4-of-22 from the floor in Game 6, and Batum missed the second half with ankle and foot injuries that already forced him out of two games in the series. “I tried everything,” Batum told the Charlotte Observer. “I tried hard, but I can’t push side to side. I was hurting the team much more than I was helping the team. So I told coach, ‘if you need me in the second half, call me.’ But it’s tough.”

ABOUT THE HEAT (51-37, 46-41-1 ATS, 36-51-1 O/U): Wade is getting more of a boost from his teammates, and Loul Deng continued a strong series with 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting in Game 6. The veteran forward is averaging 19.7 points in the series (up from 12.3 in the regular season) while shooting 51.4 percent from 3-point range (up from 34.4). “The best thing about (Game 7) is we’re at home,” Deng told reporters. “We gave ourselves another chance to fight. We have to come out with a lot of energy. It’s going to be a great game. I’m glad we’re home.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Hornets last six road games.


Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 209.5)

The Portland Trail Blazers benefited from some injury luck in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers and are hoping for some more when they visit the top-seeded Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Sunday. Warriors MVP guard Stephen Curry (knee) will miss Game 1 and could miss several games in the series.

Curry was diagnosed with a grade 1 strain of his right MCL after falling awkwardly in Game 4 of the first round against the Houston Rockets on Apr. 24 and was given a timetable of two weeks before being evaluated again. “Feeling better but just got a ways to go," Curry told reporters on Friday. "I always have an optimistic view, no matter what it is. I hope to get back sooner. I haven't talked to the doctors, athletic training staff, all the experts. That two-week timeline was, as (Golden State general manager) Bob (Myers) says, an educated guess." The Trail Blazers certainly wouldn’t mind if he missed the whole series and just got done wrapping up a first-round win over a Clippers squad that was without stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the final two games. “We thought (Los Angeles) was tough without (Paul) and Blake, but (the Warriors are) a championship team,” Portland guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “Even without Steph, they’re still a championship team. We’ve got to keep our mind right, compete and play together. … We’ve just got to keep improving on the things we’ve done well and be locked in defensively.”

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened Game 1 as 7.5-point home favorites and even without Steph Curry bettors have felt that wasn't enough with the line already moving to -8.5. The total has been bet down a point and a half from 211 to 209.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (48-40, 47-41 ATS, 46-42 O/U): Portland lost the first two games in the first round before winning four straight and were immediately turning the page to Golden State after clinching the series on Friday. “They pose a lot of problems,” Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum told reporters of the Warriors. “Historically speaking, they had a really good year breaking the record for wins, losing (two games) at home I believe this year, so you know it’s going to be a tough environment. Offensively, even without Steph, they do a great job of moving the ball.” McCollum was a key to the first-round win, averaging 12.5 points in Games 1 and 2 before exploding for 23.3 over the final four contests.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (77-10, 49-36-2 ATS, 46-40-1 O/U): Golden State dominated the Houston Rockets in the final six quarters of the first-round series after watching Curry go down just before the half in Game 4, outscoring them 179-119 over the final 1 1/2 games. “(We’re) doing a few things different with Steph out,” Warriors forward Andre Iguodala told reporters. “We don’t have that explosive, MVP-type player. But we did a really good job of getting into that mode, making a couple extra passes per possession. The ball had to move quicker. Klay (Thompson) has to move a little bit more than normal. Get the ball in the post a little bit more.” Golden State has two more All-Stars in Thompson and Draymond Green to go along with a solid supporting cast that will hold the fort until Curry returns.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last six games following a ATS loss.


Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-5.5, 190.5)

Series tied 3-3

All the pressure is on the second-seeded Toronto Raptors when they host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in the finale of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series. Toronto hasn't won a postseason series since 2001 - the longest drought in the NBA - and is being severely tested by a seventh-seed team that won 11 fewer regular-season games.

Indiana remained alive with a solid 101-83 victory in Game 6 to even the series and Raptors All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan doesn't need to be reminded what a Game 7 home loss will mean. "The season would be a failure if we don't get out of the first round and give ourselves a chance to play in the second round," DeRozan told reporters. "We understand that." DeRozan scored just eight points on Friday for the second time in three games and the shaky performances from him and point guard Kyle Lowry - the first player to shoot below 40 percent in each of the first six games of the postseason - have the Pacers on the brink of pulling off the improbable series victory. "I believe we can play with this team," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said after Game 6. "We have great respect for them, but I really believe we're hitting our stride at the right time and playing our best basketball of the season when it matters."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sportsnet (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 6.5-point home favorites for this winner-take-all Game 7, but bettors are siding with history and the Pacers as the number has moved down to -5.5. The total opened at 190.5 and has yet to move that number. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE PACERS (48-40, 45-41-1 ATS, 38-50 O/U): All five Indiana starters scored 12 or more points in Game 6 as the team gave All-Star forward Paul George some much-needed support. George has been carrying the team by averaging 27.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals in the series and he had 21 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in Friday's victory. "We just had a fight in us," George told reporters. "As a group, collectively, we knew that this could be the end of our season. We just did a great job of battling."

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (59-29, 47-41 ATS, 43-44-1 O/U): DeRozan is averaging 15.8 points and shooting 32.1 percent from the field, while Lowry is faring even worse at 14.3 points and 31 percent. Forward Patrick Patterson, who is shooting 31 percent over the past four games after starting off the series by making 9-of-11 shots, said the Raptors need to take a long at themselves in the mirror. "Do we want to be the team that won 56 games? Do we want to be the team that got two All-Stars to the All-Star Game, set new records, went on long winning streaks and played great defense in the first half of the season?" Patterson rhetorically asked reporters. "Or do we want to be the team that has come into Indiana the past two times and got blown out of the water? We have to decide what we want to be."

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
* Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Raptors last seven overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Pacers last eight overall.

NBA Odds: Conference Semifinals Game 1 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Just one NBA game on Saturday this week and I don't write Sunday for Monday -- we all need one day off -- so I'll switch up a bit here in my Opening Line Report and look at the series opener on Saturday between Oklahoma City and San Antonio and Monday's Game 1 between Atlanta and Cleveland. Entering Friday, those are the only two second-round matchups that are locked in; I expect two first-round series on Friday to conclude but think the third, Raptors-Pacers, will go to a Game 7 on Sunday. As for these two series, I believe one will be highly entertaining and go at least six games and the other to maybe last five. I'm guessing you know which is which.


No. 3 Thunder at No. 2 Spurs (-6.5, 201)

Think about what's on the line here. I don't even really mean this season and an expected matchup with Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. Both the Spurs and Thunder could look very different next season with a series loss here. I'm not sure Kevin Durant re-signs with OKC as a free-agent-to-be if the Thunder lose this series. It probably takes at least a trip to the NBA Finals for Durant to be assured of at least signing a one-year deal and locking his future to Russell Westbrook's after next season. The Spurs, meanwhile, could be saying goodbye to likely future Hall of Famers Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili if they lose this series. But might both put off retirement if the Spurs win the NBA title? After all, the team has yet to repeat. Interesting questions. It's the third time these two have met in the playoffs, and the previous two were in the West Finals. OKC won in 2012 and San Antonio in 2014.

San Antonio destroyed the injury-ravaged Grizzlies in Round 1 in a four-game sweep with a point differential of plus-88. That's one of the highest in NBA history for a sweep. The Thunder lost one game to Dallas when Durant and Westbrook really struggled -- OKC scored just 84 points in that loss but at least 108 in every other game -- but otherwise won each by at least 11 points. Both the Spurs and Thunder are very well rested and healthy. Can't wait to see two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard draped on Durant all series. Durant shot only 39 percent against the Spurs with Leonard on the floor during the regular season and 58 percent when he wasn't on the court. The Spurs and Thunder split four meetings. Throw out the most recent two as key players were rested on one side in each. The first meeting was the season opener and the second in a back-to-back setting for OKC. There's little question the Spurs are the better overall team, so this series will depend largely on what Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter are going to do. With Leonard suffocating Durant and the Spurs to swarm Westbrook when he's in the lane , that means there will be open shots for everyone else. If the Thunder get to 100 points against the NBA's top defense, they probably win. If not, Spurs do.

Series line: Spurs -300, Thunder +250

Key trends: The Thunder are 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in four of the past five.

Early lean: Spurs and under.

No. 4 Hawks at No. 1 Cavaliers (-7.5, 201)

These teams met in last year's East Finals and the Cavaliers swept, with really only one game that close. It should be noted the Hawks were a bit beaten up then, specifically Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll, who is now in Toronto. Then again, the Cavs didn't have Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving played in only two games and was very limited in them. LeBron James killed Atlanta in that series, averaging 30.3 points, 11 rebounds and 9.3 assists. A whopping 60.9 percent of his baskets came within five feet of the basket while he shot just 32.1 percent outside of that range. This Hawks team is much better defensively -- it entered the playoffs ranked first in the NBA in points allowed per possession since Dec. 15 -- if not quite as good offensively. But clearly the goal will be to make LeBron a jump-shooter again.

Atlanta surprised me with how thoroughly dominant it was in finishing off the Celtics in Game 6 in Boston on Thursday night, 104-92. It was the Hawks' first playoff series win over Boston since the St. Louis Hawks beat Boston in the 1958 Finals. Atlanta blew it open with a 39-point third quarter in which it shot 74 percent from the field. I still wonder how different that series might have been if Boston guard Avery Bradley hadn't gotten hurt. The one concern for Atlanta was that point guard Jeff Teague rolled his ankle but did play through it if not quite 100 percent.

Perhaps the Hawks can steal Game 1 since the potentially rusty Cavaliers have been off since sweeping out Detroit last Sunday. The Hawks were swept by Cleveland this season, dropping the three meetings by an average of almost 10 points (109.3 to 99.7). The Cavs scored 109 or more in each and outshot the Hawks 45.1 percent to 40.7 percent.

Series line: Cavaliers -450, Hawks +375

Key trends: The Hawks were 20-20-1 ATS on the road this season and 19-22 O/U. The Cavs were 20-21 ATS at home during the season and 22-19 O/U. The Cavs were 3-0 ATS vs. the Hawks in the regular season and 2-1 O/U.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.

NBA

Sunday's games

Indiana-Toronto (3-3)
Raptors are 9-4 in last 13 games against Indiana, they shot 40% from floor in three series wins, under 40% in three losses. Toronto is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 series games- seven of last nine series games stayed under total. Lowry/DeRozan were combined 7-27 in Game 6; they've won/covered four of last five games vs Indiana that were played here. Indiana blew a 13-point 4th-quarter lead in last game here.

Charlotte-Miami (3-3)
Charlotte lost chance to clinch series at home in Game 6, now return to South Beach, where they're 2-3 in last five visits, 1-2 in this series. Heat scored 97+ points in its three series wins, 88 or less in its three losses. Last four series games stayed under the total. After having great balance in Game 5 upset win, Walker took 30 shots in Game 6 and Hornets had only two starters score more than 7 points, while bench was combined -36 in 59:00 played.

Portland-Golden State (0-0)
Remember, no Steph Curry here. Warriors won six of last seven against Portland, covered eight of last ten Trailblazers are 0-4 vs spread last four times they came to Oakland. Portland got here ebcause Paul/Griffin got hurt for the Clippers, now Curry is out; Blazers are 7-3 in last 10 games, with six of last eight staying under the total. Golden State won seven of last nine games, covered six of last seven- under is 6-2 in their last eight.


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 25-17, Over: 13-29

Second round: Favorites: 1-0, over: 1-0

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors May 1, 8:00 EST

Indiana Pacers limiting the Toronto Raptors to 36.7% shooting in Game-6 walked off with a decisive 101-83 victory as -1.5 point home favorites tying the best-of-seven series 3-3 and forcing winner-take-all Game-7 on Sunday in Toronto.

Might be a touch generous. Although, Toronto is 9-4 (8-5 ATS) against Indiana, including 5-1 (4-2 ATS) on Air Canada Center hardwood since the first meeting of the 2014-2015 season the Raptors enter this decisive Game 7 a money burning 4-12-1 against the betting line its last 17 quarterfinal games, 2-6-1 ATS following a round-one loss.