Early line analysis of UFC 200
Reed KuhnSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
With UFC 200 still two months away, the buzz surrounding the event has mostly involved the uncertain participation of the notorious Conor McGregor. And yet regardless of McGregor's status, the UFC still has to deliver a fight card proportional to the importance of the milestone event itself. Accordingly, the UFC scheduled three championship bouts, with seven past or current title-holders competing on the main card to ensure no lack of star power.
But not all champions are created equal. In terms of fighting effectiveness, here's how the main card fighters stack up each fighter's rates of offense output versus punishment absorbed. Champion caliber fighters are denoted in gold.
Dominant champions have a common trait of avoiding too much damage in fights, and the notable names on the left side of the graph are consistent with that theme. It's an impressive lineup across the board, but the markets have already taken their sides on the project winners.
Card opener: Former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks had one of the best literal and figurative beards in MMA, which got him through wars with the division's elite. But there's no doubt the scrappy wrestler has taken some damage, and that contrasts sharply with the more conservative style of young up-and-comer Kelvin Gastelum. Still, having held a belt comes with market favoritism to the tune of minus-185 for Hendricks over the underdog Gastelum at plus-160.
Biggest betting favorite: Former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is a minus-340 betting favorite, the heaviest favorite on the main card, and the numbers agree with his advantage. Velasquez has historically delivered an enormous amount of punishment on his opponents without taking much in return. That's a stark contrast to the brawling style of Travis Browne, who used to stand up to some beatings yet still usually pulled off the win. Despite the statistical discrepancy, there's a great deal of volatility in the one-punch power inherent to any heavyweight matchup, and that could keep betting lines from diverging further.
Tate's first title defense: Of the least effective champions on paper, Miesha Tate has gotten by as a grinder, typically taking more damage than she gives out. But after her impressive submission of striker Holly Holm, no one can argue with Tate's strengths in wrestling, or her heart, and she's currently the minus-265 favorite. Her opponent, Brazilian Amanda Nunes, has looked solid to date with flashes of offensive brilliance, but her sample size is the smallest here so there's greater uncertainty. The biggest takeaway from the numbers is perhaps that Tate needs to tighten up her fighting style if she's going succeed as a champion who must continuously face dangerous challengers.
Toss-up title fight: With Conor McGregor currently more interested in super-fights, the interim featherweight title is up for grabs. Fortunately, the two most fitting challengers, former champions Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo, are getting a chance to take back title glory. Recent history favors Edgar's streak, but the original matchup between these two saw Aldo edge Edgar by unanimous decision. The betting lines are a virtual coin flip in what is likely to be a close back and forth battle.
Jones-Cormier 2: In their first matchup, Jon Jones closed as just under a 2-to-1 favorite over Cormier, in what were some of the closest betting odds of Jones's title reign. Despite Jones's underwhelming recent performance, the market is more clearly siding with Jones to win the unified belt against Cormier, with Jones as a 3-to-1 favorite in the rematch. Jones' massive range advantage and defensive prowess make him a challenge for anyone in the UFC at any weight.
Reed KuhnSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
With UFC 200 still two months away, the buzz surrounding the event has mostly involved the uncertain participation of the notorious Conor McGregor. And yet regardless of McGregor's status, the UFC still has to deliver a fight card proportional to the importance of the milestone event itself. Accordingly, the UFC scheduled three championship bouts, with seven past or current title-holders competing on the main card to ensure no lack of star power.
But not all champions are created equal. In terms of fighting effectiveness, here's how the main card fighters stack up each fighter's rates of offense output versus punishment absorbed. Champion caliber fighters are denoted in gold.
Dominant champions have a common trait of avoiding too much damage in fights, and the notable names on the left side of the graph are consistent with that theme. It's an impressive lineup across the board, but the markets have already taken their sides on the project winners.
Card opener: Former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks had one of the best literal and figurative beards in MMA, which got him through wars with the division's elite. But there's no doubt the scrappy wrestler has taken some damage, and that contrasts sharply with the more conservative style of young up-and-comer Kelvin Gastelum. Still, having held a belt comes with market favoritism to the tune of minus-185 for Hendricks over the underdog Gastelum at plus-160.
Biggest betting favorite: Former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is a minus-340 betting favorite, the heaviest favorite on the main card, and the numbers agree with his advantage. Velasquez has historically delivered an enormous amount of punishment on his opponents without taking much in return. That's a stark contrast to the brawling style of Travis Browne, who used to stand up to some beatings yet still usually pulled off the win. Despite the statistical discrepancy, there's a great deal of volatility in the one-punch power inherent to any heavyweight matchup, and that could keep betting lines from diverging further.
Tate's first title defense: Of the least effective champions on paper, Miesha Tate has gotten by as a grinder, typically taking more damage than she gives out. But after her impressive submission of striker Holly Holm, no one can argue with Tate's strengths in wrestling, or her heart, and she's currently the minus-265 favorite. Her opponent, Brazilian Amanda Nunes, has looked solid to date with flashes of offensive brilliance, but her sample size is the smallest here so there's greater uncertainty. The biggest takeaway from the numbers is perhaps that Tate needs to tighten up her fighting style if she's going succeed as a champion who must continuously face dangerous challengers.
Toss-up title fight: With Conor McGregor currently more interested in super-fights, the interim featherweight title is up for grabs. Fortunately, the two most fitting challengers, former champions Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo, are getting a chance to take back title glory. Recent history favors Edgar's streak, but the original matchup between these two saw Aldo edge Edgar by unanimous decision. The betting lines are a virtual coin flip in what is likely to be a close back and forth battle.
Jones-Cormier 2: In their first matchup, Jon Jones closed as just under a 2-to-1 favorite over Cormier, in what were some of the closest betting odds of Jones's title reign. Despite Jones's underwhelming recent performance, the market is more clearly siding with Jones to win the unified belt against Cormier, with Jones as a 3-to-1 favorite in the rematch. Jones' massive range advantage and defensive prowess make him a challenge for anyone in the UFC at any weight.
