Why Bet Underdogs?

(Why bet underdogs is taken from an article by Tony Salinas back in October of 2015.)

Because many times underdogs offer the most betting value. Over the long haul, you're
going to get the best of it by fading favorites. That's because:

*The public likes to bet favorites, so lines are shaded against that money.
*The media overhypes top teams...and oddsmakers often fall for the that hype.
*Computers are playing a bigger role than ever, and they overrate favorites.
*You typically have a motivational edge with underdogs.
*There's a tendency to get overconfident and complacent with favorites.

Taking an underdog usually gets you 1-2 free points (sometimes more), and does so with
what is often the much more motivated team. Once you have thought this through
completely, it becomes mush harder to lay the favorites. If you are like most bettors, you
take way to many favorites.

For what it's worth.................................

I love a good underdog...but have to admit, I probably bet 60% favorites. I try hard each week to find at least 2 good underdogs...and I try not to bet more than 6 games total. I am usually more unsure/less confident when I bet an underdog.

Alabama and Auburn were a combined 4-13 against the spread at home last year.
I know Bama (3-6) was a favorite in all their games. Auburn (1-7) had to be a fav
in most of their home games.

I played way too many favorites last year and I plan to go with more dogs this season.

cloverleaf said:

(Why bet underdogs is taken from an article by Tony Salinas back in October of 2015.)

Because many times underdogs offer the most betting value. Over the long haul, you're
going to get the best of it by fading favorites. That's because:

*The public likes to bet favorites, so lines are shaded against that money.
*The media overhypes top teams...and oddsmakers often fall for the that hype.
*Computers are playing a bigger role than ever, and they overrate favorites.
*You typically have a motivational edge with underdogs.
*There's a tendency to get overconfident and complacent with favorites.

Taking an underdog usually gets you 1-2 free points (sometimes more), and does so with
what is often the much more motivated team. Once you have thought this through
completely, it becomes mush harder to lay the favorites. If you are like most bettors, you
take way to many favorites.

For what it's worth.................................

Click to expand...

Your comments are worth "plenty" Clover.....Everybody loves a "winner" and odds-makers know this and will stack the deck when they set the lines against those big favorites knowing that the majority (not all) will lay those "padded numbers"....In the long run a football handicapper is better off taking that point or two (or more) that you make reference too. Many times that is very hard to do....especially when it involves your favorite team such as Alabama winning 48-14 as a 28 point favorite going into the game).......Most Tide fans are euphoric after the big-win and Tide bettors have mixed feelings. We've all been there before.....

I don't really look at college football games like that. Whether they are a favorite or a dog I look for value. You can have an underlay with a favorite just as much as you can a dog. I usually take a close look at favorites when I see the hype coming in for an underdog and they become a public favorite. Or the favorite is coming off an extra bad performance. That's when I look closer for the reasons why the public likes them so much, or hates the favorite. I also look for teams that played their "10 percent game" in their last game. What I mean by that is a typical college team will play up to their capabilities 80% of the time, with 10% of the time playing less than their capabilities, and 10% playing better than their capabilities, or as we all like to say "over their heads." So I'm always looking for that 10% either way, because a well coached team usually won't repeat a bad performance. And a team who plays way over their heads will seldom repeat that kind of performance the next week.

GoSooners said:

I don't really look at college football games like that. Whether they are a favorite or a dog I look for value. You can have an underlay with a favorite just as much as you can a dog. I usually take a close look at favorites when I see the hype coming in for an underdog and they become a public favorite. Or the favorite is coming off an extra bad performance. That's when I look closer for the reasons why the public likes them so much, or hates the favorite. I also look for teams that played their "10 percent game" in their last game. What I mean by that is a typical college team will play up to their capabilities 80% of the time, with 10% of the time playing less than their capabilities, and 10% playing better than their capabilities, or as we all like to say "over their heads." So I'm always looking for that 10% either way, because a well coached team usually won't repeat a bad performance. And a team who plays way over their heads will seldom repeat that kind of performance the next week.

Click to expand...

No doubt about it Sooner.....Value is still the prime-consideration. Talk about "playing over their heads"...Heck, even the "big boys" that play on Sunday will
seldom repeat a good or bad performance. This is where coaching and inspiration comes into play even with the "play for pay" boys. Savvy handicappers will pick-up on these slants and be seen at the cashier's window with winning tickets more often than others.

For the first couple weeks of the season when we really don't have anything to go on as far as past performance, I always assume that a team is going to be the same team as what they left off with last year. That goes against most everybody's thinking because the media, football forums, newspapers etc. tend to build teams up or down according to their preconceived opinions. But I try not to get too high on a team that is supposed to be very good, or too down on a team that maybe lost a lot of players and are looking to have a down year. If your too much of a cheerleader for one team or have a Debbie Downer attitude towards another based on other people's opinions, your probably not going to do very good at the college game in this day and age. I've found that in almost all cases, a team isn't going to take a huge jump from last year unless they have made some very positive offseason changes either in their philosophy or their coaching staff, or both. Every team makes some kind of change in the offseason. But I look for the ones who have NEEDED those changes.

For example OU was pretty much stuck in neutral the past few years until Stoops got rid of some dead weight and added some talented youth to his coaching staff. Those aren't just changes, those were NEEDED changes for OU to move forward and improve. If a team doesn't make those kind of changes in the offseason, my first assumption is they will be close to the same team as they were last year. Probably not much better or worse. That probably goes 90% of the teams out there. But there is always that 10% that will make a positive change that gets them over the hump. I can name you so many examples of this in my own conference the Big 12. Just look at TCU 2 years ago. They totally changed their philosophy on offense and brought in two of the best offensive minds in the country. And they went from 4-8 to one step away from the Final Four all in one year. Like I said, that goes for just 10% of the teams. Most everybody else is the same. About the only thing that changes from year to year is perception and line value.

Wow !!!!!Great insight and scholarly written...Where (did )you go to school Sooner.....Don't tell me it was in Norman.......ha....

Mack Donald said:

Wow !!!!!Great insight and scholarly written...Where (did )you go to school Sooner.....Don't tell me it was in Norman.......ha....

Click to expand...

Central State (Oklahoma)

Just find the positive EV and bet that.

From a sweating your bet perspective the joy of the dog is that you and your team usually have the same interest ( there will be times they pass on a covering FG because it doesn't matter or kick an expt when you want a two pt try and vice versa but for the most part your goals will be the same). There is little more demoralizing than having a ten point favorite up 10 with 6 minutes to go. The team you have is not trying to score anymore (unless it is Stanford in a bowl game) in most instances. They want to grind out a couple first downs and end the game. Meanwhile, the opposing defense of the underdog is far more likely to stop the favorite than other drives in the game because they know what is coming. And when they get the ball, they will be trying to score. It is why you see way more backdoor covers than frontdoor covers. But this is all factored into the closing market line. Just saying from a watching perspective the dog in the fourth qtr is far easier to watch with your money on the line.

But the first sentence is the answer. Just find the positive EV and bet that.

One rule many longtime sports bettors adhere to is taking the underdogs with the best chance
to win the game. Ranked teams have fared extremely well against the spread over the years
when made an underdog. Since 1985, these teams are 168-115-6 against the point spread,
which is 59.4 percent winners. These teams are also 147-141-1 straight up. Over the past 10
years, these teams are 80-56-4 ATS and 40-30-4 over the past five years. These numbers are
through the end of the 2010 season but the system is still a worthwhile addition to any bettors
handicapping.