How To Bet Sunday Night's Yankees-Red Sox MLB Matchup

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[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Yankees-Red Sox matchup[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
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Even if the only baseball you watched was MLB's Sunday Night Baseball weekly showcase, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox would need no introduction. Frequent Sunday night participants no matter who they play -- only a first-week rainout prevented this from being, like Boston, the Yankees' second appearance of 2016 -- when they face off in a weekend series, it's a near guarantee they'll be playing Sunday's last game.
There's good reason for viewers' familiarity with these two teams, of course. Not only do they both have nationwide fan bases, but they also win. Since the playoffs expanded in 1995, there was only one year in which neither Boston nor New York made the postseason, and in that time there has never been a season in which both teams finished under .500.
One month into this season, Boston is holding up its end of the success bargain, entering the day just one-half game behind AL East-leading Baltimore. The Yankees, thanks in part to the losses Boston hung on them in the first two games of the series, enter the game in last place. It's the first time New York has been in last place this late in the season since 2008.
Our handicappers, Joe Peta and Andrew Lange, take a look at Sunday night's matchup, in which the Red Sox are strong favorites to continue the Yankees' misery.
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Westgate line: New York Yankees +140/Boston Red Sox -150
Over/under: 7.5 runs (-110)

Joe Peta: Sporting an ERA of 6.11 after his first three starts, Nathan Eovalditurned in a seven-inning, no-runs-allowed gem versus the Texas Rangers in his outing last Monday. But Eovaldi didn't turn his season around, because he was already pitching exceedingly well despite the ugly ERA. In fact, by one measure (SIERA) his last start was actually his worst outing of the year! His troubling results, like those of his rotation mates Luis Severino and Michael Pineda, are largely due to poor Yankees' defense. (Pineda's penchant for giving up home runs is a contributing factor in his nearly 7.0 ERA.)
Normally, that type of setup -- a heavy-underdog starting pitcher with 3.0 ERA skills hidden by the unpredictability of random defense -- would be an attractive, nearly automatic pick. But Eovaldi is paired against David Price, and his 5.76 ERA after five starts is just as suspect as Eovaldi's high mark. After facing 130 batters, Price has, by far, the highest strikeout rate (over 35 percent) in his career, with no increase in his career walk rate. Like Eovaldi, the defense behind Price has been awful, but unlike Eovaldi, the poor defense backing Price appears to be inconsistent with the defense behind other Red Sox hurlers.
Thanks to the age of the Yankees' starting eight, I have no reason to doubt the sustainability of the worst-in-baseball adjusted defensive efficiency the team has posted 20-plus games into the season. As a result, that's enough to tip the scales convincingly toward Boston. There will potentially be favorable spots to back Eovaldi in underdog roles as the season progresses, but this is not the night.
ESPN Chalk pick: Red Sox -150

Andrew Lange: It's tempting to look at some of David Price's numbers (59 percent LOB, .386 BABIP) and feel that he's been unlucky with nowhere to go but up following a 5.76 ERA through five starts. With 46 punchouts in just shy of 30 innings, the strikeouts are certainly there, but I still have some concerns. Namely, Price's velocity is way down from last season. As a result, his line-drive (29 percent) and hard-hit (41 percent) rates are way above his career averages. Price is a bet-against pitcher for me right now, but admittedly New York is a fairly favorable matchup. The Yankees are far better built to hit right-handed pitching with lefties Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner and switch hitters Chase Headley, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran all showing better splits against righties at this point in their respective careers.
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</article>I'm starting to believe more in Nathan Eovaldi, who has plenty of talent but notorious difficulty with his command and secondary pitches. In June of last season, however, he started throwing a splitter, which statistically has turned out to be his best pitch. He tosses it about 25 percent of the time, and it's put opposing hitters in a position where they just can't sit back and wait for his hard -- but hittable -- four-seam fastball. Keep in mind, Eovaldi is only 26. If he can continue to improve his swing-and-miss and strikeout rates, he's got a good chance to be New York's best starting pitcher
So, it's New York or pass as Price's current form doesn't warrant this type of price tag. And unfortunately, the market already has taken a few whacks at the under, which would be my preference on the total. In the end, lean to the Yankees at plus-140 or higher.
ESPN Chalk pick: New York +140 or better only (lean)
 

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