[h=1]How to bet Raptors-Pacers Game 7[/h]
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
We've heard it many times: Two of the most exciting words in sports are "Game 7."
Unfortunately, we don't see as many Game 7s in the NBA as we do in the NHL and MLB, so we were blessed Sunday with two Game 7s after having only two instances in last year's entire postseason. ESPN Chalk handicappers didn't have any strong opinions on the early Charlotte Hornets-Miami Heat matchup, but we're going to break down Sunday night's Indiana Pacers-Toronto Raptorsgame.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Pacers forced the decisive Game 7 with a 101-83 victory at home on Friday night. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Raptors as 6.5-point home favorites, as did the majority of Nevada books (in fact, the MGM books were the only ones to open at Raptors -6). Early betting pushed the line down to 5.5 at several books, but as of 10 a.m. PT Sunday every book in Vegas on the Don Best odds screen was back up to -6 with one notable exception: the small, independent book at Jerry's Nugget in North Las Vegas was holding the line at Toronto -5.
"We're taking a stand on Indiana as we think they're the right side," said Mark Dufty, Race and Sports Book Director at Jerry's Nugget.
Here's some info to help you in determining which you think is the right side, along with Dave Tuley's take on the game.
Since the 2005 playoffs, NBA home teams are 25-9 straight-up in Game 7s (including the Miami Heat's rout of the Charlotte Hornets as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday) and 21-13 against the spread (61.8 percent) according tosportsinsights.com.
The current six-point spread is the smallest number for the Raptors at home in this series. They closed as eight-point favorites in Game 1 (losing outright 100-90), then closed as 8.5-point favorites in Game 2 (winning and covering 98-87) and closed as 7.5-point favorites in Game 5 (winning 102-99 but failing to cover). So the Raptors are 2-1 straight up in this series in games played in Toronto, but the Pacers have the 2-1 ATS edge.
After opening at 190.5, the total has ticked down a point to 189.5, the lowest of any game this series. Four of the six games have stayed under the total, averaging 188.16 points.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Raptors are 0-2 all-time in Game 7s, while the Pacers are 3-4 (2-4 on the road).
More from ESPN Stats & Info:
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Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
Spread: Toronto -6.0
Over/under: 189.5
PickCenter analysis
Tuley's take: The Forecast predictions above are for picking the outright winner of the game, but I'm more interested in which team will cover the spread. Even though we're not getting as many points as the previous three games in Toronto, I like the Pacers +6.
The fact that a series goes to a Game 7 usually means the teams are pretty well matched. Coming into the series, the big knock on Toronto was its history of underachieving in the playoffs, and we've seen that continue. I'm certainly encouraged by the fact that even though the Raptors have won two of the three games in Toronto, the Pacers are 2-1 ATS in those games (and 4-2 ATS overall in the series).
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</article>Game 5 certainly could have gone either way, and I expect Game 7 to be similar, with the game coming down to the final few possessions. I'm not as confident with Indiana getting the outright upset, but getting six points makes me feel much more comfortable.
One last thing in the Pacers' favor is that in basketball (more than any other team sport), one player can step up and take over a game. Indiana's Paul George is the most likely candidate to assume that role. If I were backing Toronto, I wouldn't feel confident in any of their players to come through in the clutch to get the victory -- let alone needing to win by seven points or more.
Tuley's pick: Pacers +6.
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
We've heard it many times: Two of the most exciting words in sports are "Game 7."
Unfortunately, we don't see as many Game 7s in the NBA as we do in the NHL and MLB, so we were blessed Sunday with two Game 7s after having only two instances in last year's entire postseason. ESPN Chalk handicappers didn't have any strong opinions on the early Charlotte Hornets-Miami Heat matchup, but we're going to break down Sunday night's Indiana Pacers-Toronto Raptorsgame.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Pacers forced the decisive Game 7 with a 101-83 victory at home on Friday night. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Raptors as 6.5-point home favorites, as did the majority of Nevada books (in fact, the MGM books were the only ones to open at Raptors -6). Early betting pushed the line down to 5.5 at several books, but as of 10 a.m. PT Sunday every book in Vegas on the Don Best odds screen was back up to -6 with one notable exception: the small, independent book at Jerry's Nugget in North Las Vegas was holding the line at Toronto -5.
"We're taking a stand on Indiana as we think they're the right side," said Mark Dufty, Race and Sports Book Director at Jerry's Nugget.
Here's some info to help you in determining which you think is the right side, along with Dave Tuley's take on the game.
Since the 2005 playoffs, NBA home teams are 25-9 straight-up in Game 7s (including the Miami Heat's rout of the Charlotte Hornets as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday) and 21-13 against the spread (61.8 percent) according tosportsinsights.com.
The current six-point spread is the smallest number for the Raptors at home in this series. They closed as eight-point favorites in Game 1 (losing outright 100-90), then closed as 8.5-point favorites in Game 2 (winning and covering 98-87) and closed as 7.5-point favorites in Game 5 (winning 102-99 but failing to cover). So the Raptors are 2-1 straight up in this series in games played in Toronto, but the Pacers have the 2-1 ATS edge.
After opening at 190.5, the total has ticked down a point to 189.5, the lowest of any game this series. Four of the six games have stayed under the total, averaging 188.16 points.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Raptors are 0-2 all-time in Game 7s, while the Pacers are 3-4 (2-4 on the road).
More from ESPN Stats & Info:
- The Pacers have never won a playoff series when seeded seventh or lower.
- Indiana's Paul George is averaging 27.5 PPG (165 points in six games) this postseason. No Pacer has averaged 25 PPG in the playoffs since Reggie Miller(31.3 PPG) in 2000-01.
- Toronto's DeMar DeRozan has been held to less than 10 points in two of the past three games (scored 34 in the other). DeRozan led the Raptors in scoring in the regular season. Kyle Lowry has shot worse than 40 percent in all six games this postseason (31.0 percent, 26-84 overall) and in 11 of his past 12 postseason games.
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| TOR (%) | IND (%) | |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN Forecast | 55 | 45 |
| BPI | 70 | 30 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 72 | 28 |
| PredictWise | 67 | 33 |
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Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
Over/under: 189.5
PickCenter analysis
Tuley's take: The Forecast predictions above are for picking the outright winner of the game, but I'm more interested in which team will cover the spread. Even though we're not getting as many points as the previous three games in Toronto, I like the Pacers +6.
The fact that a series goes to a Game 7 usually means the teams are pretty well matched. Coming into the series, the big knock on Toronto was its history of underachieving in the playoffs, and we've seen that continue. I'm certainly encouraged by the fact that even though the Raptors have won two of the three games in Toronto, the Pacers are 2-1 ATS in those games (and 4-2 ATS overall in the series).
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</article>Game 5 certainly could have gone either way, and I expect Game 7 to be similar, with the game coming down to the final few possessions. I'm not as confident with Indiana getting the outright upset, but getting six points makes me feel much more comfortable.
One last thing in the Pacers' favor is that in basketball (more than any other team sport), one player can step up and take over a game. Indiana's Paul George is the most likely candidate to assume that role. If I were backing Toronto, I wouldn't feel confident in any of their players to come through in the clutch to get the victory -- let alone needing to win by seven points or more.
Tuley's pick: Pacers +6.
