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UFC Fight Night 87
By Brian Edwards

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is poised to make its debut in the Netherlands on Sunday morning in the Eastern Time Zone in Rotterdam, where a 13-fight card will get started at 10:30 a.m. There will be three bouts on Fight Pass before the prelims get going at noon Eastern on Fox Sports 1.

The headliner will feature a heavyweight showdown between local legend Alistair Overeem and former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski. Both train in Albuquerque out of the Jackson-Winklejohn Academy, but these guys do not like each other.

Arlovski stated on “UFC Tonight” earlier this week that he’ll never train with The ‘Reem again. Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn will both corner Arlovski for this fight rather than Overeem.

Arlovski weighed in at 248 pounds, while Overeem tipped the scales at 244.

As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Overeem (40-14-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC) listed as a -230 favorite, while ‘The Pitbull’ was the +180 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -130, ‘over’ +110).

Overeem is a Dutch kickboxer who was once the Strikeforce heavyweight champion. He has won three fights in a row and four of his last five since suffering back-to-back knockout losses to Travis Browne and Antonio Silva in 2013. Since then, Overeem’s only defeat came by first-round KO at the hands of Ben Rothwell.

Before the loss to Rothwell, Overeem dominated Frank Mir for 15 minutes to take a unanimous-decision victory at UFC 169. Then in December of 2014, Overeem KO’d Stefan Struve late in the first round. Next at UFC 185 in Dallas, he took another UD win over Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson.

I was in Orlando this past December when Overeem finally squared off against former UFC champ Junior dos Santos. I was all over Overeem that night as a +260 underdog (I bet it early in the week before the odds came down and closed at +215) when he knocked out JDS in the third round.

That victory elevated Overeem into the third slot of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. He feels a win over Arlovski will merit him a title shot. That’s debatable, however, since the winner of Travis Browne vs. Cain Velasquez will also be in the conversation after they tangle at UFC 200. The current heavyweight kingpin Fabricio Werdum will defend his strap for the first time against Stipe Miocic next weekend in the UFC 198 headliner in Brazil.

In addition to the previously noted victories, Overeem has other notable career wins over the likes of Brock Lesnar, Werdum, Todd Duffee, Mark Hunt and Vitor Belfort (twice).

Arlovski (25-11-1 MMA, 14-5 UFC) has enjoyed his second tour of duty with the UFC, capturing wins at a 4-1 clip, including triumphs over Brendan Schaub, Travis Browne, Antonio Silva and Frank Mir. However, in his last outing while he was on the verge of a title shot, the 37-year-old Arlovski was KO’d by Miocic in only 54 seconds at UFC 195.

Arlovski won UFC gold by beating Tim Sylvia by first-round submission at UFC 51 on Feb. 5 of 2005. He made two successful title defenses with victories over Justin Eilers at UFC 53 and Paul Buentello at UFC 55, but he lost the belt to Sylvia by first-round KO at UFC 59. They had a rematch less than three months later at UFC 61, with Sylvia winning a UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47).

Prediction: I lean to Overeem here, but I’m not confident enough to lay the -230 price. Instead, I’ll go ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (-130) for three units. I think Overeem gets the KO late in the first round but remember, we still get the first 2.5 minutes of the second round for a finish to occur and provide us with a victory. We should point out that 40 of Overeem’s 55 career fights have ended in Round 1. Three of Arlovski’s last four bouts were over in the opening stanza.

In the co-main event, Stefan Struve and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva will collide in a crucial matchup for both fighters. Struve (26-8 MMA, 10-6 UFC), who is a Netherlands native just like Overeem, has lost two of three fights since returning from more than 21 months out of action due to an enlarged heart.

The 28-year-old was set to face Matt Mitrione at UFC 175, but the promotion’s personnel decided to cancel the fight after Struve fainted in the dressing room and had an elevated heart rate less than a hour before the bout.

The UFC’s only seven-footer was cleared to face Overeem at UFC on Fox 13, but he was knocked out with 47 seconds remaining in the opening stanza. Struve bounced back to beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in Brazil at UFC 190. However, he lost a unanimous decision to Jared Rosholt at UFC 193 last November.

Struve, who has lost three of his last four fights, owns notable career wins over Miocic, Little Nog, Lavar Johnson, Pat Barry and Buentello. He has lost to top-tier heavyweights like Hunt, Browne, Nelson and Dos Santos.

Struve weighed in on Saturday at 265 pounds, while ‘Bigfoot’ tipped the scales at 266. Unless it’s a championship bout, fighters are allowed to come in one pound over the division limit (265 for heavyweight).

Silva (20-7-1 MMA, 3-5-1 UFC) has limped to a 1-4-1 record in his last six fights, notching his only victory over Soa Palelei by second-round KO at UFC 190 last August. Then in November at UFC 193, Silva and Hunt squared off in a rematch of their draw in December of 2013 when they put on one of the greatest battles in MMA history.

But the second time around ended early when Hunt scored a first-round KO over ‘Bigfoot’ in Melbourne, Australia. All six of Silva’s recent defeats have come by KO in the opening round, including a pair of setbacks against Cain Velasquez, in addition to losses to Daniel Cormier, Arlovski and Mir.

Before his second loss to Velasquez, however, Silva scored back-to-back KO victories over Overeem and Browne. Silva rallied in the third round to finish Overeem with a violent barrage at UFC 156. In his win over Browne, Silva took advantage of Browne injuring his knee early in the bout.

Most books have Struve installed as a -220 favorite, with Silva available on the comeback for a nice +180 payout (risk $100 to win $180). The total is 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -170, ‘over’ +140).

Prediction: This is a desperation fight for both of these mixed martial artists. Both carry big names, but the loser could easily find himself cut from the promotion. Struve has yet to regain his pre-long-layoff form that made the ‘Skyscraper’ a top heavyweight prospect several years ago. At the age of 28 with 34 career fights under his belt, he still has time to produce a great career, but he needs to get started on that Sunday afternoon. Even in his one win over Little Nog since the health scare and subsequent layoff, Struve wasn’t overly impressive. Nogueira had been out a long time and is clearly past his prime anyway. I think this is a toss-up fight, so I’ll go with Silva as a nice +180 underdog in a fight that he can finish with once punch at any given time. Let’s go 1.5 units on ‘Bigfoot’ at +180.

Albert Tumenov and Gunnar Nelson are set to collide in the Octagon for a welterweight scrap. Most spots have Tumenov (18-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) listed as a -185 ‘chalk.’ Nelson is a +160 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).

After losing his UFC debut to Ildemar Alcantara by split decision in February of 2014, Tumenov has won five consecutive fights. He bagged a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus with his first round KO of Alan Jouban at UFC 192.

Then in his last outing, Tumenov captured a split-decision victory (29-28, 28-29 and 29-28) over Lorenz Larkin at UFC 195. The win over Larkin garnered Tumenov a spot at No. 13 in the UFC’s welterweight rankings.

Nelson (14-2-1 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a 27-year-old BJJ specialist from Iceland. He won his first four UFC fights and earned a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. However, he’s lost two of his last three bouts and is in dire need of a win here.

His first setback in the UFC came against Rick Story by split decision. Nelson bounced back to top Brandon Thatch by first-round submission at UFC 189. Then in a big step up in class, he lost by UD to Demian Maia at UFC 194 this past December.

Nelson has only been an underdog once in his career, defeating Thatch as a +130 ‘dog.

Prediction: I’m on the sidelines for this one. I don’t see an edge with the side or total.

The rest of the main card, which starts at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on FS1, looks like this:

Germaine De Randamie -400 vs. Anna Elmose +325 (women’s bantamweight)
Nikita Krylov -220 vs. Francimar Barroso +180 (LH)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -265 vs. Heather Jo Clark +225 (WS)

**Octagon Nuggets**

-- A sure-to-be-entertaining heavyweight slugfest between Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson and Derrick ‘Black Beast’ Lewis has been added to UFC Fight Night 90. This is the Thursday show – with Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight championship serving as the main event -- in Las Vegas two days before UFC 200. I will be there.

-- Dos Anjos is currently listed as a -400 favorite over Alvarez (+325) at 5Dimes.

-- I like Cody ‘No Love’ Garbrandt to beat Thomas Almeida as a +135 underdog in the UFC Fight Night 88 headliner on May 29.

-- I’ve already taken Frankie Edgar at -115 for his interim featherweight title fight against Jose Aldo at UFC 200 this summer.

-- According to multiple reports on Friday, the UFC’s debut in South Dakota has a main event in the works that’ll feature third-ranked lightweight Tony Ferguson vs. ninth-ranked Michael Chiesa. However, while meeting with the media in Rotterdam yesterday, Chiesa said it “was just a rumor.”

-- UFC on Fox 20 in Chicago is starting to take shape. Though the main event hasn’t been officially announced, reports have it pitting former women’s bantamweight champ Holly Holm against Valentina Shevchenko. The co-main will be a light-heavyweight slugfest between Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and Glover Teixeira. Also, Gilbert Melendez will make his return from a one-year suspension due to a positive test for PEDs to take on Edson Barboza, who is off a decision win over Anthony Pettis.

-- Robbie Lawler’s next welterweight title defense is being targeted for UFC 201 against Tyron Woodley. This show will be at Philips Arena in Atlanta on July 30.

Preview: Islanders (45-27) at Lightning (46-31)

Date: May 08, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) The Tampa Bay Lightning are one victory away from reaching the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight year, and they know it won't be easy to close out their second-round playoff series against the New York Islanders.

Even on home ice.

Despite leading the series 3-1, the Lightning have been outplayed for extended stretches, including much of the past two games, which Tampa Bay won in overtime on the road.

Game 5 is Sunday (3 p.m. EDT, NBC) at Amalie Arena, where defenseman Jason Garrison said the defending Eastern Conference champions can't afford a letdown.

The Lightning won three of the first four games in their opening round series against Detroit, but needed a late goal from Alex Killorn and 34 saves from Ben Bishop in a 1-0 victory that finished that series in five games.

'It's definitely the toughest win to get,' Garrison, who won Game 4 with a goal less than two minutes into overtime, said during a conference call Saturday, when the Lightning flew home from New York but did not practice.

'We've been in the position before. In the series against Detroit, I don't think we played our best,' Garrison added. 'Bish really stood on his head for us. So we learned from that to not try to give away too many chances.'

It also was a travel day for the Islanders, who elected to practice in suburban Brandon at the suggestion of captain John Tavares.

'We didn't want to be sitting around too much when we got in. It was obviously an option skate ... but guys wanted to get their feet moving,' Tavares said. 'Getting the morning off, it's a bit of an odd schedule that we're not as accustomed to, so it was just, `Let's get here and skate if you want, if not do what you need to do to be ready.'

Coach Jack Capuano was fine with the idea, adding 'whatever the guys feel is necessary to do, I'm going to jump on the bandwagon with them.'

Tavares is confident the Islanders can bounce back and keep the team's deepest playoff run since 1993 alive.

'We've been in elimination situations before, we fought them off and then a couple of times where we weren't as successful,' Tavares said. 'We just want to keep playing and build around the good things that we're doing and throw everything at them.'

The Lightning are on the brink of returning to the conference finals in large part because of Bishop and another stellar postseason for Nikita Kucherov, who forced OT with third-period goals in Games 3 and 4 in Brooklyn.

The 22-year-old right winger had 10 goals and 12 assists in Tampa Bay's run to the Stanley Cup final a year ago. His timely goals - with less than a minute left in regulation in Game 3, and eight minutes into the third period of Game 4 Friday night - gives him a NHL-leading eight this postseason.

Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after Friday night win that Kucherov is 'proving he's not a one-hit wonder.'

And the young forward is not alone. Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin are other young players who've made key contributions with Tampa Bay still playing without injured star Steven Stamkos and defenseman Anton Stralman.

'It's players that were drafted with a talent base and a skill, but it's the mentality part that has to develop coming into pro hockey. How you prepare, how you play. You're playing against older, bigger, stronger men, and how are you going to survive in that,' Cooper said during Saturday's conference call 'And all these guys have made that conscious choice to do all the little things you need to do to be successful in this league.'

Kucherov scored 30 goals this season, second behind Stamkos' 36. He led the team with 66 points.

'Ultimately I think goal scoring is something that comes natural to Kuch. It's all the other things that he had to slowly learn,' Cooper said. 'To get yourself in a position to score goals, you have to do all those other things. He made a conscious choice to be better in those areas, and it's paying mass dividends now.'

How much rest is too much in the NBA playoffs?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

For those of you who have spent a three or four-night weekend in Las Vegas, you’re fully aware of the fact that there are only two options at your disposal for how to manage rest while attempting to survive all of the temptations that Sin City is notorious for throwing your way.

The first is to push the gas pedal to the floor, throw caution to the wind and try to survive on free drinks and pumped-in oxygen knowing full well that the following week will be a disaster. The alternative option is a game plan dependent upon moderation: Some drinking, some gambling, some partying, some sleep.

The latter of these options will release you back into the real world with little trouble. But I think we’d all agree that a four-day weekend in Las Vegas with a mentality focused on moderation is a failure in and of itself.

That’s why Disney World was created.

Outside of Las Vegas, sufficient rest is an integral component to a healthy and successful lifestyle. But how much rest is too much rest? Do some of us perform in a more efficient manner with six hours of sleep as opposed to eight? Is a 90-minute afternoon nap a good thing or a bad thing? Were I to possess any medical training whatsoever, perhaps I could answer those questions for you. Since I don’t, I’ll simply transition in blunt fashion to how different levels of rest affect NBA playoff teams.

One of the reasonable complaints you’ll hear from sports fans this time of year is the amount of time NBA teams get in between playoff games as opposed to how the NHL operates. For example, the Warriors and Trail Blazers played Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinal on Tuesday before receiving three nights of rest prior to Saturday night’s Game 3. In contrast, the Sharks and Predators played a three-overtime Game 4 thriller in Nashville on Thursday night/Friday morning before dropping the Game 5 puck in San Jose approximately 44 hours later.

Which leads us into today’s big question: Is there a sports betting edge to be found in regards to the NBA playoffs based on how much rest takes place in between games?

A thorough examination of the last five NBA postseasons (which includes the 2016 edition) produced the following results:

ZERO DAYS OF REST

Home team SU: 0-2 (.000)
Home team ATS: 1-1 (.500)
Total: 2-0 to the OVER (1.000)

ONE DAY OF REST

Home team SU: 139-94 (.596)
Home team ATS: 106-123-4 (.462)
Total: 115-115-3 (.500)

TWO DAYS OF REST

Home team SU: 68-43 (.612)
Home team ATS: 56-53-2 (.513)
Total: 61-48 to the UNDER (.559)

THREE DAYS OF REST

Home team SU: 24-3 (.888)
Home team ATS: 20-7 (.740)
Total: 15-11-1 to the UNDER (.576)

FOUR DAYS OF REST

Home team SU: 3-1 (.750)
Home team ATS: 3-1 (.750)
Total: 2-2 (.500)

At first glance you’ll likely notice that there are few edges to be gained from a thorough evaluation of rest and how it affects NBA teams during the playoffs, although betting the under in games played on either two or three days of rest has produced small profits over the last five years.

But look closer at what happens in regards to home teams playing on three days of rest, which is something you will see Saturday night in Portland. In those situations over the last five years, home teams are a blazing 24-3 straight-up and 20-7 against the spread, which is good for a winning percentage of 74.0 percent. At the time of publication, Portland was a three-point underdog for Game 4 against Golden State.

Unlike a four-day weekend in Las Vegas, NBA postseason games played on three days of rest happen multiple times a year. However, just like in Las Vegas, the home team almost always wins.

Sunday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (+5, 203)

Cavaliers lead series 3-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers are putting on a 3-point shooting show and are on the verge of sweeping the Atlanta Hawks for the second straight postseason. Cleveland made 21 3-pointers on Friday - four shy of its record-setting performance in Game 2 - and looks to finish off the host Hawks in Sunday's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Backup forward Channing Frye knocked down seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in Friday's 121-108 victory, which marked the Cavaliers' 11th consecutive postseason win over the Hawks. Cleveland has made 61 3-pointers in the series -- the most through three games of any playoff series in NBA history. "We have some great shooters," Cleveland forward LeBron James told reporters. "The reason why we have great shooters is because that ball is popping - the ball has energy behind it, and guys feel confident when the ball gets to them that they can just let it go." Atlanta was outrebounded by a 55-28 margin in Game 3 but coach Mike Budenholzer downplayed the differential by saying "we outrebounded them in the first game and lost. I think what matters more is who scores the most."

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: With their backs up against the wall, the Hawks have opened as 5-point home pups for Game 4 and the line has yet to move off that number. The total opened at 202 and has been bet up to 203. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (64-25, 42-44-3 ATS, 45-44 O/U): Frye's performance was easily the best postseason showing of his career as his previous best effort was 20 points in 2010 when he played for the Phoenix Suns. He said teammate James Jones told him to shoot more because he's not a good passer and James has also been urging him to hoist more long-range shots. Three other Cavaliers topped 20 points - James had 24 points and 13 rebounds, point guard Kyrie Irving scored 24 points and power forward Kevin Love made five 3-pointers while contributing 21 points and 15 rebounds.

ABOUT THE HAWKS (52-39, 45-45-1 ATS, 41-50 O/U): Atlanta attempted to shake things up in Game 3 by inserting Thabo Sefolosha into the starting lineup and bringing shooting guard Kyle Korver off the bench. The move helped Korver as he made five 3-pointers while scoring 18 points - he averaged five points over the first two contests - while center Al Horford also had a breakout performance with 24 points on 11-of-15 shooting and expressed that more moves are necessary. "We're fighting for our playoff lives right now," Horford told reporters. "At this point, we have to do some changes, because what we've done hasn't worked."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last five road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Hawks last five when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.


San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1, 198)

Spurs lead series 2-1

Oklahoma City small forward Kevin Durant could be playing his final home game as a member of the franchise when the Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Sunday's Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. Durant has been coy about his postseason free-agent intentions and an Oklahoma City loss on Sunday would present the Spurs with the opportunity to close out the series at home in Game 5.

Durant isn't interested in discussing whether or not he will return to the Thunder and also scoffed at questions pertaining to how the team will need to win at least one more time in San Antonio to win the series. "We play Sunday," Durant said at Friday's postgame press conference. "We play Sunday. We can't worry about going to San Antonio. We've got another game here." Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard was the Game 3 hero with 31 points and 11 rebounds in a 100-96 victory while power forward LaMarcus Aldridge continued his strong series with 24 points and eight rebounds. Aldridge is averaging 34.3 points and shooting 63.1 percent in the series.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Thunder have opened Game 4 as slight 1-point home pups and have remained at that number. The total has been bet down one point from its opening number of 199 to the current 198. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE SPURS (73-16, 49-40 ATS, 37-50-2 O/U): Veteran point guard Tony Parker scored 19 points in Game 3 after averaging 4.5 over the first two games and also contributed eight rebounds and five assists in a strong all-around effort. "It was great," Parker told reporters. "I got a couple of more shots than usual. Just have to be aggressive. It's all about the team. Kawhi and LaMarcus, they were unbelievable. I just had to do my part." Leonard's 30-point outing was his second of the postseason and he is averaging 23.3 points in the Oklahoma City series.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (60-30, 41-48-1 ATS, 43-47 O/U): Standout point guard Russell Westbrook had 31 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in Game 3 but his five turnovers and porous 10-of-31 shooting stood out in a four-point loss. "Too many shots," Westbrook told reporters. "I've got to do a better job getting guys shots. I've got to get other guys involved, especially to beat this team. Even though I had some shots I usually make, I've got to read and find ways to get guys shots. I take the blame." Durant only took 18 shots (making 10) while scoring 26 points and red-hot power forward Serge Ibaka (15 points on five 3-pointers) could have received more attempts (eight overall, six from 3-point range).

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semi finals games.
* Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 14-2 in Spurs last 16 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Preview: Cavaliers (57-25) at Hawks (48-34)

Date: May 08, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

Though a potential NBA Finals rematch remains far off, the Cleveland Cavaliers appear well-equipped to counter the defending champions' perimeter prowess if it occurs.

A second consecutive prolific 3-point display has the hot-shooting Cavaliers in position to sweep the Atlanta Hawks for a second straight year entering Sunday's Game 4 of this one-sided Eastern Conference semifinal.

A change in venues didn't at all alter Cleveland's devastating marksmanship from beyond the arc. After hitting an NBA playoff-record 25 3-pointers in 45 attempts during a 123-98 home rout in Wednesday's Game 2, the Cavaliers went 21 of 39 en route to a 121-108 win and a 3-0 series lead Friday at Philips Arena.

After J.R. Smith, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving did most of the damage in Game 2, Channing Frye added another element to Cleveland's already formidable offense Friday. The veteran forward finished 7 of 9 from 3 in amassing a playoff career-high 27 points, complementing 24 each from James and Irving and Kevin Love's 21 and 15 rebounds.

The Cavaliers acquired Frye from Orlando at February's trade deadline to bolster their outside shooting, a glaring weakness when ousted by Golden State in last June's Finals. Cleveland shot just 29.3 percent from 3-point range for the six-game series while the Warriors averaged 11.8 3s in their wins.

'We brought him here to shoot,' James said. 'And shoot and shoot and shoot.'

It's safe to say the Cavaliers have addressed the problem. They're averaging 16.9 3s and a scorching 46.6 percent from distance during this postseason.

"When the ball is moving, we have some great shooters," James said. "When we have great shooting, the ball is popping and it has some energy behind it."

The Hawks simply haven't been able to keep up. They held a 101-93 lead with 9:14 remaining in Game 3, then missed six of their next seven shots as Frye and James led Cleveland on a game-changing 20-3 run.

"For the first three quarters, (we) felt really good about what we had going," center Al Horford said. "I think they just took it to another level in the fourth there. They really just got hot and for us, at the end of the day, if they're shooting it like that, they're going to be unstoppable."

Atlanta did have its best offensive performance of the series, shooting 16 of 34 on 3-pointers and 48.8 percent overall after being held to 39.9 percent in the first two games. Kyle Korver, held to 10 points while starting Games 1 and 2, had five 3s and provided 18 points off the bench.

However, the Hawks were outrebounded 55-28 as Cleveland owned an 18-9 advantage in second-chance points. Horford, who recorded 24 points on 11-of-15 shooting, had just one rebound and was a minus-26 on the court.

Still, a surprising inability to defend the perimeter remains Atlanta's biggest challenge. The Hawks held opponents to 33.8 percent on 3-pointers - sixth-best in the league - during the regular season and limited Boston to 30.7 percent in the opening round.

"There are times when in transition, particularly in the first two games and a little bit (Friday), (defense) was a major problem," coach Mike Budenholzer said. "I think that's when they are getting their most open looks."

It's an area the Hawks will need to improve quickly to avoid the same fate as last year, when the Cavaliers swept Atlanta in the East finals.

Cleveland has now won 11 straight playoff games against the Hawks, one shy of matching an NBA record for consecutive postseason victories over a single opponent. The Cavaliers tied the mark with their opening-round sweep of Detroit.

Preview: Spurs (67-15) at Thunder (55-27)

Date: May 08, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Russell Westbrook is willing to find out if less means more to help the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The star guard is thinking shooting less and passing more as the Thunder try to knot their Western Conference semifinal series at two games apiece Sunday in Oklahoma City.

While Westbrook had 31 points in Friday night's 100-96 defeat to the Spurs, he needed 31 field-goal attempts to get there. He admitted that contributed to the Thunder lacking an offensive rhythm for most of the contest despite erasing a 15-point halftime deficit.

'Too many shots,' said Westbrook, who ranked ninth in the NBA with 18.1 shots per game. 'I've got to do a better job getting guys shots. I've got to get other guys involved, especially to beat this team. Even though I had some shots I (usually) make, I've got to read and find ways to get guys shots. I take the blame.'

Twenty-five shots may be the cutoff where the Thunder sink or swim. Including the playoffs, the Thunder are 7-8 when Westbrook takes at least 24 shots, but that record changes to 1-5 when he puts up 27 or more. In those 15 games, he's also a better facilitator for his teammates on the lower end of that range of shots - Westbrook has a 2.33 assist-to-turnover ratio taking 24 or 25 shots but a 1.81 mark with 27 or more attempts.

'We know he's going to be very aggressive,' Spurs guard Tony Parker said. 'They go down, we know he's going to be extra aggressive, so we just make sure that everybody's paying attention to weak side defense. He's coming at us. That's who he is. He's got a lot of energy, and he's just going to keep attacking.'

Westbrook was 11 of 25 in Oklahoma City's Game 2 victory.

That doesn't mean the Spurs can slack off Kevin Durant, who has been effective when he's gotten the ball. He's gone 19 for 30 inside the arc over the last two games - 21 for 37 overall - and made all five of his shots in the paint Friday night.

The Spurs likely will keep attacking through LaMarcus Aldridge. He finished with 24 points on 8-of-21 shooting, but that was an improvement for the Thunder after Aldridge torched them for 79 points on 75 percent shooting in the first two games. While he was slightly out of sync, the forward also appears prepared to make adjustments to what made the Thunder relatively more successful.

"They pick their spots when they double," said Aldridge, whose eight baskets came from 13 feet out or further Friday. "When I tried to go quick to the baseline, they doubled early and I think that's their scheme - if I try to go baseline, then they're going to double team me. Other than that they played me straight up."

San Antonio was held to 20 points in the paint - the only other time it scored that few dating to the 2000-01 postseason came in 2004 against the Los Angeles Lakers - after racking up 90 in the first two games. But proving their versatility, the Spurs connected on 10 of 19 from 3-point range in the Game 3 victory as they continued to be ruthless from deep.

"They made tough 2s, they made 3s," Durant said. "We did a good job of making them shoot tough shots, but they made them."

The Spurs have connected at a 45.8 percent clip from beyond the arc in the postseason, well above their 37.5 percent mark for the season.

The series returns to San Antonio for Game 5 on Tuesday.

Handicapping Sweeps
By Marc Lawrence

The NBA Playoffs often find many twists and turns when it comes to handicapping the postseason.

One of the more enlightening is when teams are winless in a series and are about to be swept.

How do they respond?

We put the question to our all-knowing, well-oiled database and the results are clearly definitive.

Take a look.

These are results for teams in Game Four of a playoff series, down 0-3.

All results are since 1991 and are SU (Straight Up), ATS (Against The Spread), and in Over/Under total sequence unless noted otherwise.

Home:
24-41 SU and 27-35-3 ATS
32-31-2 Over/Under
23-21-2 ATS as an underdog
3-14-1 ATS as a favorite

Away:
2-7 SU and ATS
10-1 Over/Under
2-7 ATS dog
0-0 ATS favorite

As you can see it’s out with the old and in with the new when it comes to teams staving off elimination in Game Four of a best of seven playoff series – especially when favored to win.

FYI: Underdog of more than eight points are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS while teams off an ATS win are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, games with an Over / Under total of more than 210 points are 5-1 OVER.

There you have it.

Another edge to add to your handicapping arsenal this postseason.

The above results include outcomes from this year's postseason when the Cavaliers and Spurs swept the Pistons and Grizzlies respectively in the first round.

Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David

Eastern Conference – Game 4
Cleveland at Atlanta (ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET)
Cavaliers lead series 3-0

After setting an NBA record with 25 baskets from 3-point land in Game 2 last Wednesday, the Cavaliers followed up that effort with 21 bombs from downtown on Friday as they defeated the Hawks 121-108 in Game 3 as 2 ½-point road favorites.

The game was closer than the final score indicated and much tighter than the 25-point blowout in Game 2 but a loss is a loss and the Hawks are all too familiar with this result versus the Cavaliers. Including Friday’s setback, Atlanta has now dropped 10 straight to Cleveland and it’s a dreadful 1-9 against the spread in those losses.

The series isn’t over yet but with Cleveland opening as a 5 ½-point road favorite for Game 4 on Sunday, it appears the oddsmakers have lost hope in Atlanta.

Including Friday’s setback, the Hawks are now 1-3 both SU and ATS as home underdogs this season and all three losses were 10-plus points.

NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes it's hard to go against Cleveland when they're ready to advance, especially lately.

He explained, "The Cavaliers are 1-0 in close-out games in this year's postseason, plus they went 3-0 both SU and ATS in close-out games of the 2015 playoffs. Three of those victories occurred on the road -- Detroit in the first round this year plus victories against Boston and Chicago last year. Since 2011, LeBron James-led teams have compiled a 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS mark when trying to clinch a series, but two of those losses came with his team (Heat) leading 3-0 on the road in the first round in 2011 and 2012."

It should also be noted that in his playoff career, LeBron has been in 10 series where his team has built a 3-0 series lead. Those teams finished off the sweep eight times while capturing victories in five games in the other two series.

Atlanta has dropped three consecutive games during the regular season four times. After the third loss, the Hawks rebounded with four emphatic wins and three came by double digits while the offense posted 112, 103, 127 and 103 points.

The team total on the Hawks for Game 4 is 99 ½ while the Cavaliers have a number of 104. After watching Cleveland put up 123 and 121 points, it’s hard not to go against them, especially when a guy like Channing Frye hits 7-of-9 from 3-point land for the Cavs and finishes with a career-high 27 points.

The Hawks got a great performance from an outsider in Game 1 when backup point guard Dennis Schroder erupted for 27 points in 29 minutes. Since then, he’s only played a combined 26 minutes while posting 13 points. I know Jeff Teague has played better in the last two games but Schroder has a different gear and will likely be the starter in Atlanta next season.

After two straight ‘over’ tickets in this series, oddsmakers opened Game 4’s total at 202 and it’s been bet up to 203. Despite Friday’s shootout, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ go 12-3 in 15 home playoff games under Mike Budenholzer. And since LeBron rejoined the Cavs, the club has watched the ’under’ go 8-3-2 in road playoff games. Even though the trends could have you leaning low, the recent offensive fireworks can't be ignored.

The Cavaliers have played at 3:30 p.m. ET six times this season and have posted a 6-0 mark in these spots, which includes a 106-101 win over Detroit in Game 1 of their first round series. Atlanta has gone 2-2 in afternoon games.

For those believing the Hawks can become the first team in the NBA to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first three games, then check out 5Dimes.eu and grab a generous return of 65/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $6,500).

If necessary, Game 5 will take place on Tuesday from Quicken Loans Arena.


Western Conference – Game 4
San Antonio at Oklahoma City (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Spurs lead series 2-1

San Antonio opened this series with a wire-to-wire blowout in Game 1 but it’s been nothing but close calls in the last two games. The Spurs earned a 100-96 victory on Friday against Oklahoma City as 2 ½-point road favorites and the outcome came down to the final quarter.

The Thunder led 81-77 with seven minutes remaining in the fourth but were outscored 23-15 and San Antonio earned 11 of those points from the free throw line. OKC couldn’t buy a shot from 3-point land (0-for-5) during this span and turned the ball over three times while looking stagnant on offense.

Looking at the big picture, this best-of-seven matchup has become a game of 2 on 2 with Leonard and Aldridge clashing with Durant and Westbrook.

San Antonio won that battle Friday as Kawhi Leonard led the team with 31 points and 11 boards, which came after a 14-point effort in Game 2’s loss. LaMarcus Aldridge dropped in 24 points on Friday and he’s averaging 34.3 points per game in this series. Those numbers are much needed for San Antonio since it appears that “Father Time” has caught up with Tim Duncan (4 PPG, 4 RPG) a bit earlier than most expected.

All of the blame for OKC is usually pointed at Russell Westrbook, and that criticism is sometimes deserving. He finished with 31 points in Game 3 but he took 13 more shots than Kevin Durant (18) and that includes an ugly 3-of-10 performance from 3-point land. KD finished with 26 and only took six attempts in the fourth quarter.

Westbrook owned his play in Game 3. "Execution. That starts with me," Westbrook said. "I've got to do a better job of executing and putting guys in position to score the basketball, especially late. And especially against good defense. You've got to find ways to move the ball around and that starts with me, so I've got to do a better job leading into the next game."

Fast forward to Sunday’s key matchup and the Spurs have been installed as short road favorites (-1) over the Thunder and that’s a real tricky number to handicap.

Oklahoma City has gone 2-0 both SU and ATS off a loss in this year’s postseason and it should feel confident at home versus the Spurs. The Thunder have gone 11-3 against San Antonio in their last 14 meetings at Chesapeake Energy Arena and that includes a 5-2 record in the playoffs.

However, the Thunder are underdogs and their numbers when catching points haven’t been great at the betting counter. OKC is 2-12 as an underdog this season and that includes a 0-2 mark at home.

Even though this venue hasn’t been kind to San Antonio, Gregg Popovich’s team is 8-2 in its last 10 playoff games on the road which includes three victories in this year’s postseason.

The total for the first three games in this series closed at 200 and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last two games. Overall, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the past eight meetings between the pair. Sunday’s number is hovering around 198 and that’s the lowest total that these teams have seen since a Christmas Day affair in 2014. That game went ‘over’ the number, easily.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has adjusted their series odds to San Antonio at minus-900 (Bet $100 to win $11) while the takeback on Oklahoma City has ballooned to plus-600 (Bet $100 to win $600.)

After this game, the series heads back to San Antonio on Tuesday for Game 5.

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder May 8, 8:00 EST

San Antonio is a slight favorite (-1.0) for game four of the Conference Semifinals vs Oklahoma City. Intriguing, Spurs have been know to sputter on enemy hardwood laying two or less ponts. In the last seven situations the Spurs are 1-6 against the betting line. Add the fact Spurs haven't exactly been lining bettors' pockets in Oklahoma City at just 3-11 ATS you bet San Antonio at some risk.

Meadowlands: Sunday 5/8 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 177 - 585 / $1,018.70 (-$151.30)

BEST BETS: 21 - 44 / $83.90 (-$4.10)

Best Bet: ALWAYS B MIKI (7th)

Spot Play: NATURAL KEMP (2nd)


RACE 1

(7) BEE A MAGICIAN looks better this year than in any of her previous seasons, and that is saying something considering she is a former Horse of the Year. That said, she faces a very strong group and taking anything under 8-5 is not advised. (4) RESOLVE posted an even effort with a strong final quarter in his 2016 debut and is very capable of breaking out in his age 5 campaign. (1) JL CRUZE had to qualify last week because he couldn’t find a race. He is an obvious player while looking to stay unbeaten this year.

RACE 2

(9) NATURAL KEMP sticks out for many reasons. Beyond the fact that he faces easier company, I think the switch to Hannah Miller may help a horse that has been driven by the same person for 17 straight starts. Sometimes a new set of hands can make all the difference. (2) FEISTY LOVE has raced well every week and gets a good post to work with on Sunday. (7) GIANT T might be a stretch on the win end, but comes in for a competent driver who has a strong record as trainer here as well.

Race 3

(1) FREE WILLY HANOVER has looked good in the morning. If he can behave today, this race is open for the taking. (7) LINDY’S ON FIRE finished up willingly in her most recent qualifier. Is she ready at first asking? Can she beat the boys? The price should be right. (3) THREEHUNDREDLINDYS qualified well at Hoosier and seems like a fit against this group. (6) SODERBERG raced okay in his 2016 debut and can improve.

Race 4

(5) SOUTHWIND FLASH displayed a strong move in his qualifier only to get out-gamed for the win. If he is over last year’s breaking issues, this looks like a winning spot. (4) RADIANT BEAM raced very well in her return qualifier, though she did get a sweet trip. (1) ZETTE STARLET comes off an even morning effort and can build off that race.

Race 5

(4) CAN DO returns to The Meadowlands at a reduced level and actually won an Open here back in January. He really should perk up in this spot. (8) NO RECESS was trapped in at Vernon last time and the winner got the jump on him. When last seen here he was up in class. It seems like he has a shot here at a price. (1) FOREVER AS was Tetrick’s choice over my top pick and she does appear to have a chance if she trots the entire mile.

Race 6

(4) SWEET JUSTICE has been razor sharp and should offer fair value on the class jump. (2) UVA HANOVER finished with good life last week and now has two starts under his belt after a short break; very playable. (8) ROCK OF CASHEL has a win and two seconds in his last three starts against this type. (9) BOURBON BAY was used hard in his first start for this barn; don’t ignore him if the price is right.

Race 7

(6) ALWAYS B MIKI was driven conservatively in his first start of the year versus better foes than he faces today. He should have no problem winning at very short odds. (1) ODDS ON EQUULEUS is a sharp horse that can secure position from the cones. (4) MCARDLES LIGHTNING falls into the same category as #1; very formful.

Race 8

(7) STACIA HANOVER closed very well in her first start of 2016 while facing more difficult competition. If Zeron keeps her anywhere close to striking position she should win. (2) CINAMONY gets away from top mares in the Blue Chip Matchmaker and may enjoy the switch to the big track. (9) STORM POINT has raced well in both starts this year and certainly has a big shot if left alone on the engine.

Race 9

(1) GALLIE BYTHE BEACH never really found her best stride on the smaller track at Yonkers. I can definitely see her picking up on the mile oval. (4) LOVINEVERYMINUTE raised her game last week in her second try for trainer Richard Johnson. This is a good post that gives Bongiorno many options. (2) SHEEZA SHARK N has been impressive thus far but needs to show me a sub 1:50 mile before I back her as the possible favorite versus a crew like this one.

Race 10

(8) BETTOR CHILL OUT was a sharp winner when last seen at this condition with Simons in the bike; Campbell drives today. (4) ROYAL ENGAGEMENT moves into a high percentage barn and must be considered. (9) BALLINEEN drops down a notch but likely needs a trip from the outside post. (7) AMERICANGIRLFRIEND comes off a win versus cheaper at Freehold, but wouldn’t be a total shock in this spot.

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (5th) Flying Around, 7-2
(7th) Cruachan, 6-1

Belmont Park (1st) Bluegrass Rye, 7-2
(3rd) Roman Reign, 5-1


Belterra Park (3rd) Twilight Journey, 9-2
(8th) Whitewood Indian, 8-1

Emerald Downs (2nd) Wicked Laugh, 3-1
(7th) Noble Nick, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Fancy Terrace, 6-1
(2nd) Cherokee in Me, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (1st) Moonlit Sonnet, 3-1
(9th) Harlan's Heart, 3-1


Hastings Park (3rd) Morrie's Glory, 9-2
(6th) Omi, 6-1

Laurel Park (3rd) Irish Major, 10-1
(4th) Wolf Letter, 3-1


Lone Star Park (3rd) Sir Monte Carlo, 3-1
(7th) Uncle Witt, 9-2


Mountaineer (1st) Carolyn, 9-2
(2nd) Starship Malibu, 6-1

Parx Racing (5th) Twenty Percent, 9-2
(6th) Do a Legger, 3-1


Penn National (1st) Perfect Wind, 7-2
(3rd) Quiet Virtue, 3-1

Prairie Meadows (1st) Sid Licious, 5-1
(6th) Yodelin' Angel, 9-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Nine Point Nine, 4-1
(7th) Itsinthepost, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (4th) Arch Dancer, 5-1
(7th) Great Aztec, 3-1


Turf Paradise (7th) Classy Chick, 8-1
(8th) French General, 3-1

Woodbine (4th) Reimagined, 3-1
(10th) Miss Sea, 3-1

May Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Horse racing fans recognize May as the month of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. For baseball purists May is simply the second month of the 2016 pro baseball season. But for die-hard baseball fans, namely those who enjoy handicapping America’s pastime, it signals our annual May Good Month/Bad Month pitchers report.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in May, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s May list.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

De La Rosa , Jorge -11-3 (5-1 A)

The Colorado right-hander had a rough April and will look to find his groove this month. The normally reliable right-hander has start and stop windup and still has low 90's fastball with tail action. He will need to spot pitches better and have more control with slider and changeup to match past numbers. Update - Went on 15-day DL on 4/27 with groin.

Hernandez, Felix -11-5 (8-3 A)

Though the "King" does not have the same velocity as a few years ago, he has more pitches he throws for strikes. Thus, he's not going to be as dominant as often, but he's making the transition away from pure power pitcher to smarter hurler to get batter out.

Hughes, Phil -10-4 (6-1 H)

Never the ace many envisioned in his younger days with the Yankees, Hughes is a dependable starter for Minnesota, who commands low-90's fastball and spins a tight-curve. His walk-to-strikeout command is excellent but the biggest problem is staying focused inning after inning and has always been prone of losing concentration.

Porcello, Rick -11-5 (8-1 A)

Sinker-ball pitcher who tried to become strikeout chucker with big contract in Boston last year and failed miserably. Has gone back to what he does best so far this season, which has batters beating the ball into the ground. A true No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the rotation whose not comfortable being depended on for more.

*Sale, Chris -10-1 (5-0 A)

A true strikeout machine who, at 27, has gained the confidence to also be clubhouse leader. At 6'6 and thin, all arms and legs with funky left-side delivery, has mid to upper 90's fastball and catcher seldom has to move once target is set. Headliner of an overabundance of White Sox lefty starters.

*Scherzer, Max -13-4 (6-1 H)

Since the middle of last season, has been pedestrian performer, more like was with Arizona, with ERA over 4.25. Scherzer depends on clean mechanics for velocity and tilt on breaking pitches. It seems to come and go without warning. Washington is looking for the pitcher they had the first half of last year as right-hand version of Clayton Kershaw when he was unhittable.

*Vogelsong, Ryan -12-3 (6-1 A)

Now with Pittsburgh, lost starting job in spring training and now works in long relief or as spot starter. Not likely to change at 38 unless injuries occur.

*Weaver, Jered -10-2 (6-1 H)

After shoulder issues in the spring related to tightness, which had his fastball topping out at 81-82, Weaver got stretched out and is now serviceable mid-rotation pitcher, who knows how to works counts and change speeds. Fastball still only in mid-80's but throws so many off-speed pitches his fastball is looking quicker to hitter's thus far.

Zimmermann, Jordan -11-5 (7-1 H)

The formers Nats pitcher took an immediate liking to the American League and went 24 1/3 innings before giving up a run in 2016. Has four good pitches he can keep in the zone and is frontline hurler. For whatever reason, seldom pitches beyond the seventh inning.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Hamels, Cole -5-12 (2-6 A)

Has fit in comfortably at Texas, with still good fastball that moves late when low in the zone, excellent cutter and still one of the best changes in the game. Part of poor record is he's been on some bad teams of late in Philadelphia and has thrown better when the weather heats up, which is not a problem in Dallas.

Peralta, Wily -3-12 (1-6 A)

Been hit hard thus far in 2016, not keeping fastball down and delivering too many room service sliders. Peralta lacks great stuff and even when he's at his best, not many swings and misses. Note: Figures represent career start marks.