[h=1]Betting UFC 198: Werdum-Miocic[/h]Reed KuhnSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Brazilian UFC events are always a loud affair. But if any UFC event has ever pushed the decibels to dangerous levels, it could be this weekend at UFC 198. The fight card in Curitiba, Brazil will be the most star-studded MMA card in Brazilian history, and 40,000 local MMA fans will be on hand to remind any foreign fighters that "uh vai morer," or they are not expected to be victorious (very loose translation).
Before the late removal of Anderson Silva from the event due to illness, the fight card boasted four current or former UFC champions, and three more title-challengers, one of whom is the new Heavyweight contender Stipe Miocic. And that doesn't even include former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Ronaldo Souza, former Strikeforce and Invicta Women's Featherweight champion Cris "Cyborg" Justino, or several other fan favorites like Matt Brown, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and John Lineker.
The fight card is absolutely stacked with talent and local drawing power, so expect an even more frenzied atmosphere than is usual for a Brazilian card. That will make for extra excitement in these already interesting matchups. But someone has to win and lose regardless of crowd noise, so let's first look at how the fighters on the card stack up in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness.
One of these matchups is not like the others. As fans consider the risk of what might be a UFC record-breaking betting line for Justino's debut against Leslie Smith, they should at least recognize the extreme statistical divergence in this matchup. And how about the final two fights on the night? Let's take a closer look at the performance metrics in these key matchups.
[h=2]Catchweight: Cris "Cyborg" Justino (-1700) vs Leslie Smith (+1100)[/h]
When Ronda Rousey hit her peak of dominance, onlookers could only speculate if any woman on earth could even last a full fight with her. And the name most often suggested as a viable challenger was put forth as a single word nickname: "Cyborg." Unstoppable since her career debut in MMA, Cyborg has smashed through competition in a way similar to how Rousey arm-barred a direct path to a championship. But Cyborg was a weight division away, and until recently champion of another promotion. That changed with this weekend's matchmaking experiment to introduce her to UFC fans via a "catchweight" fight of 140 pounds against UFC women's bantamweight Leslie Smith.
How do two unranked UFC fighters end up in the third to final fight of a card this prestigious? Look no further than the betting line for Cyborg to understand the amount of hype she brings to the cage. The stats here are mismatched in that Cyborg's performance metrics were at featherweight outside of the UFC. But she faced solid opponents in Strikeforce, and there's no doubt in who has the edge on paper. Specifically, Cyborg is an accurate and powerful striker, who has also dominated opponents on the mat, while Smith has not had any success on the ground while also demonstrating worse striking defense than her prior opponents. It's a (very) rare clean sweep on the Uber Tale of the Tape for Cyborg.
Insider Recommends: Despite the uncertainty of comparing different promotional stats, the overall assessment of a lopsided matchup is clear. But the return on betting Cyborg straight up only brings savings bond-like returns, and there's always the risk of her weight cut being a problem. The better angle is to take the Under 1.5 rounds at minus-290 as part of a parlay with another convincing favorite, and expect Cyborg to do damage and get Smith into a bad spot on the ground for an early finish.
[h=2]Middleweight: No. 2 Ronaldo Souza (-320) vs No. 3 Vitor Belfort (+260)[/h]
The co-main event is a rare Brazilian vs. Brazilian marquee matchup at a Brazilian event, and a contrast of the two most dangerous skills in MMA. Belfort has long been one of the most explosive strikers in the sport, and his absurd knockdown rate is a testament that ability. On the flipside, "Jacare" Souza is one of the best submission grapplers in the sport, with 16 career submissions to his credit in just 22 MMA fights. The statline agrees that Belfort is the more dangerous striker, and that Souza has all the advantages on the ground.
Souza has only struggled with big opponents with good grappling defense, like current champion Luke Rockhold and Souza's last opponent Yoel Romero. But Belfort doesn't really fit this mold. He's unlikely to be a threat beyond the second round, and he has been taken down and controlled in the past by grapplers less skilled than Souza. If Belfort doesn't land cleanly in his first flurries, he'll likely be put on his back and immediately vulnerable to Jacare's best weapons.
Insider Recommends: Assuming Souza has the foresight to weather the early storm, he should find a way to use Belfort's aggression against him and get the fight to the ground. And then it's just a matter of time. Current odds for Souza are steep, and even the Under 1.5 rounds at -155 is a little risky if Souza has to play it safe and avoid Belfort's strengths until he tires. But an Inside the Distance finish is low-grade parlay fodder at minus-480, while a prop of Souza by submission at minus-115 is the best value single play, as this inevitably is the most likely outcome even if it occurs late.
[h=2]Heavyweight Championship: Champion Fabricio Werdum(-145) vs No. 3 Stipe Miocic (+125)[/h]
It's a complete contrast of fighting styles. Werdum is a Muay Thai striker and a jiu jitsu ace, while Miocic is a boxer on the feet and a wrestler on the mat. The grappling metrics suggest that Werdum could have trouble getting Miocic down, and that means two heavyweights slinging leather (and feet). But these guys aren't known for massive KO power, and that means there could be a lot of testing, striking and fading. It's in Werdum's best interest to close the distance to work his clinch game or setup takedowns. Meanwhile, Miocic will need all of his speed to stay out of range and counter Werdum's advances with strikes.
The skill-level mismatch here favoring the champion is offset by the challenger's youth, durability and athleticism. At heavyweight, these basic physical factors count for a lot, and that's why the odds are so close, despite the Brazilian champ getting to defend in a home cage.
Insider Recommends: This one is close to a toss-up. In the long run, Werdum offers more weapons and could chop down the legs of Miocic to make him more vulnerable to an eventual ground attack. But Miocic will be dangerous early if he can connect a well-timed counter. The numbers and multiple paths to victory favor Werdum, but he's still vulnerable and isn't getting any younger. A small prop play on Miocic by TKO at plus-365 appears to be a worthy long-shot play that realistically could come through.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values. E.g., a moneyline of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values. E.g., a moneyline of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
ESPN INSIDER
Brazilian UFC events are always a loud affair. But if any UFC event has ever pushed the decibels to dangerous levels, it could be this weekend at UFC 198. The fight card in Curitiba, Brazil will be the most star-studded MMA card in Brazilian history, and 40,000 local MMA fans will be on hand to remind any foreign fighters that "uh vai morer," or they are not expected to be victorious (very loose translation).
Before the late removal of Anderson Silva from the event due to illness, the fight card boasted four current or former UFC champions, and three more title-challengers, one of whom is the new Heavyweight contender Stipe Miocic. And that doesn't even include former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Ronaldo Souza, former Strikeforce and Invicta Women's Featherweight champion Cris "Cyborg" Justino, or several other fan favorites like Matt Brown, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and John Lineker.
The fight card is absolutely stacked with talent and local drawing power, so expect an even more frenzied atmosphere than is usual for a Brazilian card. That will make for extra excitement in these already interesting matchups. But someone has to win and lose regardless of crowd noise, so let's first look at how the fighters on the card stack up in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness.
One of these matchups is not like the others. As fans consider the risk of what might be a UFC record-breaking betting line for Justino's debut against Leslie Smith, they should at least recognize the extreme statistical divergence in this matchup. And how about the final two fights on the night? Let's take a closer look at the performance metrics in these key matchups.
[h=2]Catchweight: Cris "Cyborg" Justino (-1700) vs Leslie Smith (+1100)[/h]
When Ronda Rousey hit her peak of dominance, onlookers could only speculate if any woman on earth could even last a full fight with her. And the name most often suggested as a viable challenger was put forth as a single word nickname: "Cyborg." Unstoppable since her career debut in MMA, Cyborg has smashed through competition in a way similar to how Rousey arm-barred a direct path to a championship. But Cyborg was a weight division away, and until recently champion of another promotion. That changed with this weekend's matchmaking experiment to introduce her to UFC fans via a "catchweight" fight of 140 pounds against UFC women's bantamweight Leslie Smith.
How do two unranked UFC fighters end up in the third to final fight of a card this prestigious? Look no further than the betting line for Cyborg to understand the amount of hype she brings to the cage. The stats here are mismatched in that Cyborg's performance metrics were at featherweight outside of the UFC. But she faced solid opponents in Strikeforce, and there's no doubt in who has the edge on paper. Specifically, Cyborg is an accurate and powerful striker, who has also dominated opponents on the mat, while Smith has not had any success on the ground while also demonstrating worse striking defense than her prior opponents. It's a (very) rare clean sweep on the Uber Tale of the Tape for Cyborg.
Insider Recommends: Despite the uncertainty of comparing different promotional stats, the overall assessment of a lopsided matchup is clear. But the return on betting Cyborg straight up only brings savings bond-like returns, and there's always the risk of her weight cut being a problem. The better angle is to take the Under 1.5 rounds at minus-290 as part of a parlay with another convincing favorite, and expect Cyborg to do damage and get Smith into a bad spot on the ground for an early finish.
[h=2]Middleweight: No. 2 Ronaldo Souza (-320) vs No. 3 Vitor Belfort (+260)[/h]
The co-main event is a rare Brazilian vs. Brazilian marquee matchup at a Brazilian event, and a contrast of the two most dangerous skills in MMA. Belfort has long been one of the most explosive strikers in the sport, and his absurd knockdown rate is a testament that ability. On the flipside, "Jacare" Souza is one of the best submission grapplers in the sport, with 16 career submissions to his credit in just 22 MMA fights. The statline agrees that Belfort is the more dangerous striker, and that Souza has all the advantages on the ground.
Souza has only struggled with big opponents with good grappling defense, like current champion Luke Rockhold and Souza's last opponent Yoel Romero. But Belfort doesn't really fit this mold. He's unlikely to be a threat beyond the second round, and he has been taken down and controlled in the past by grapplers less skilled than Souza. If Belfort doesn't land cleanly in his first flurries, he'll likely be put on his back and immediately vulnerable to Jacare's best weapons.
Insider Recommends: Assuming Souza has the foresight to weather the early storm, he should find a way to use Belfort's aggression against him and get the fight to the ground. And then it's just a matter of time. Current odds for Souza are steep, and even the Under 1.5 rounds at -155 is a little risky if Souza has to play it safe and avoid Belfort's strengths until he tires. But an Inside the Distance finish is low-grade parlay fodder at minus-480, while a prop of Souza by submission at minus-115 is the best value single play, as this inevitably is the most likely outcome even if it occurs late.
[h=2]Heavyweight Championship: Champion Fabricio Werdum(-145) vs No. 3 Stipe Miocic (+125)[/h]
It's a complete contrast of fighting styles. Werdum is a Muay Thai striker and a jiu jitsu ace, while Miocic is a boxer on the feet and a wrestler on the mat. The grappling metrics suggest that Werdum could have trouble getting Miocic down, and that means two heavyweights slinging leather (and feet). But these guys aren't known for massive KO power, and that means there could be a lot of testing, striking and fading. It's in Werdum's best interest to close the distance to work his clinch game or setup takedowns. Meanwhile, Miocic will need all of his speed to stay out of range and counter Werdum's advances with strikes.
The skill-level mismatch here favoring the champion is offset by the challenger's youth, durability and athleticism. At heavyweight, these basic physical factors count for a lot, and that's why the odds are so close, despite the Brazilian champ getting to defend in a home cage.
Insider Recommends: This one is close to a toss-up. In the long run, Werdum offers more weapons and could chop down the legs of Miocic to make him more vulnerable to an eventual ground attack. But Miocic will be dangerous early if he can connect a well-timed counter. The numbers and multiple paths to victory favor Werdum, but he's still vulnerable and isn't getting any younger. A small prop play on Miocic by TKO at plus-365 appears to be a worthy long-shot play that realistically could come through.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values. E.g., a moneyline of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values. E.g., a moneyline of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
