[h=1]Football Outsiders' early 2016 NFC projections[/h]Aaron SchatzSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2016 season. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article.
For the most part, these are the same projected standings that Todd McShay used to build his way-too-early 2017 mock draft. There's a slight difference because I've fixed a variable that mistakenly penalized the Giants and Buccaneers for having new offensive systems. (Because the offensive coordinator became the head coach for both teams, the system stays the same.)
I looked at the AFC Wednesday, and today I'll go through the NFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2016.
Here are the results:
[h=2]NFC East[/h]1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.6 mean wins, SOS: 30)
2. New York Giants: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 17)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 11)
4. Washington Redskins: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Without Tony Romo, the Cowboys finished 31st last year in offensive DVOA, suffering one of the 10 largest year-to-year drops in offensive DVOA since 1989. With Romo back and a healthier Dez Bryant on the field, they're almost guaranteed to rebound in 2016. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense ended just 6.0 percent of opposing drives with takeaways last season. That was dead last in the NFL and the fourth-lowest rate of any team since 1998. There's a lot of year-to-year regression in turnovers, so there's a strong chance that improves in 2016. (In 2014, the lowest teams in this stat were the Jets and Chiefs, who both turned their defenses around significantly in 2015.)
Forecasting that Dallas will return to winning is probably less controversial than forecasting that Washington will return to losing. However, Washington isn't exactly starting from greatness. Washington won a bad division at 9-7, but ranked only 15th in DVOA. That was a big improvement over the previous two seasons, when Washington was 29th (2013) and 28th (2014) in DVOA. But this means they're likely to run into the "Plexiglass Principle," which states that teams that significantly improve one year will tend to decline the next year and vice versa. In particular, the defense is unlikely to keep up its turnover rate (15.1 percent of drives, fifth in the NFL) or ability to stop short-yardage runs (49 percent conversions, the best figure in the NFL). The addition of Josh Normanis somewhat blunted by the losses of veteran defensive linemen Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton.
There are a lot of reasons to believe the Giants will improve on defense: overall trends suggest a rebound after two straight years of decline, and the defensive line in particular should improve with the additions of Olivier Vernon andDamon Harrison. But the offense has to overcome an inexperienced line with questionable depth and the loss of starting receiver Rueben Randle. A lot depends on whether Victor Cruz is finally healthy enough to play and what the Giants can expect out of him.
Our projections are also down on the Eagles. Their offensive DVOA dropped from 13th to 26th last year, but the expected rebound is somewhat blunted by the fact that our system penalizes offenses that are learning a new system from new coaches. The defense has to replace four regular starters.
[h=2]NFC North[/h]1. Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (11.8 mean wins, SOS: 28)
2. Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (9.1 mean wins, SOS: 19)
3. Detroit Lions: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins, SOS: 26)
4. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins, SOS: 27)
The whole NFC North is likely to be in playoff contention for much of the year, thanks to the NFL's rotating divisional schedule pitting them against the AFC South and NFC East.
Aaron Rodgers had ranked among the top six quarterbacks in DVOA for six straight years before he dropped to 17th last season. The falloff can't all be blamed on the absence of Jordy Nelson, but it sure will help Rodgers to have his best receiver back on the field. It's also likely that Rodgers will fix some of his other issues, bringing the Packers' offense closer to being the highly efficient unit it was for most of Rodgers' career. Our defensive projection is not as optimistic, partly because of the departure of talent such as Mike Neal and B.J. Raji. But if Rodgers can be close to the Rodgers of old, a little decline on defense won't matter.
Our projection system sees the Vikings holding onto last year's gains rather than improving significantly, but taking the next step into Super Bowl contention is certainly a valid goal for this team. In particular, the offense could benefit from getting back two starting linemen who missed all of last year with injuries, center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt.
It's a little surprising that our system doesn't forecast more decline from the Detroit offense; the retirement of Calvin Johnson is offset by Detroit doing well in various small variables such as being a strong running team in the red zone. That still leaves Detroit as a team projected to be very close to average on both sides of the ball, but it has the advantage of an easy schedule.
Chicago's defense has been consistently bad the past few years, but we're predicting improvement thanks to both natural regression toward the mean and the addition of linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. However, that improvement is balanced by an expected drop-off on offense because of the departure of Matt Forte and offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
[h=2]NFC South[/h]1. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins, SOS: 12)
2. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins, SOS: 10)
3. Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins, SOS: 6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (6.5 mean wins, SOS: 8)
It's not a surprise to see our model predict the Panthers to decline. After all, teams don't go 15-1 two years in a row. And note what we wrote about Washington and the "Plexiglass Principle" -- Carolina went from 24th in overall DVOA in 2014 to fourth in 2015, so regression is very likely. In particular, we have quite a few reasons to expect a weaker defense from the Panthers in 2016. One of the variables in our defensive projections measures the loss of defensive talent based on Pro-Football-Reference's approximate value stat. Only six teams since 2003 have lost more approximate value over replacement than the 2016 Panthers. Most of that is Josh Norman, but Carolina also needs to replace veterans Jared Allen, Roman Harper and Charles Tillman. And lastly, the Panthers led the NFL in causing turnovers, which they did on 19.6 percent of their drives last year; that number is bound to regress toward the mean in 2016.
The good news for Carolina is that the gap between the Panthers and the rest of the NFC South was so huge last season that it will be tough for the other teams to make it up even if Carolina declines as much as we expect.
The Saints are essentially the anti-Broncos. Yesterday in our forecast for the AFC, I noted that the best defenses are rarely that good for two years in a row. The same goes for the worst defenses, and the Saints had the worst defense ever measured by DVOA even after adjusting for the fact that NFL offensive levels are at an all-time high. So in the same way that we're projecting Denver as the league's best defense but unlikely to be as good as last year, we're also projecting New Orleans as the league's worst defense but unlikely to be as awful as last year. However, the Saints' offense may not be as good as we're used to, because Drew Brees is another year older and he will have neither the retired Marques Colston nor the departed Benjamin Watson to throw to.
Atlanta was a bit lucky last year, going 8-8 despite ranking just 26th in DVOA. Our forecast essentially says the Falcons are likely to have a worse record despite being a better team. The defense still won't be very good, but the offense should rebound to a level closer to past years: slightly above average. (The Falcons ranked between ninth and 14th in offensive DVOA for seven straight seasons between 2008 and 2014, then fell to 23rd last season.)
Our projections see Tampa Bay as declining a little bit on offense and improving a bit on defense, but there are subjective reasons to question both of those results. The system is expecting regression from the offense, but of course the quarterback situation is much different now than it was two years ago. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay projects to improve because it has brought in more defensive approximate value over replacement than any other team in the NFL. However, the system may be overestimating the value of these veterans. Daryl Smith will be 34 this year, Brent Grimes 33, and Robert Ayers31.
[h=2]NFC West[/h]1. Arizona Cardinals: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins, SOS: 18)
2. Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins, SOS: 3)
3. Los Angeles Rams: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins, SOS: 5)
4. San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (3.9 mean wins, SOS: 1)
More than the AFC East, this is the division that may be decided by Tom Brady's suspension for Deflategate. Seattle has finished No. 1 overall in DVOA for an astonishing four straight seasons, and the Seahawks are our No. 1 projected team for 2016 as well. But Arizona is our projected No. 2 team, and there are two huge schedule differences that benefit the Cardinals. The first one is only a problem if we're correct about Aaron Rodgers returning to greatness: Arizona's first-place finish last year means the Cardinals go to Minnesota while Seattle has to travel to Green Bay. The second one will require federal court intervention to help the Seahawks: Arizona opens the season at home against the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Patriots while Seattle has to go to Foxborough to play the Patriots with Brady in Week 10.
But overall, these are the two best teams in the league going into 2016. Arizona has the No. 3 projection on both offense and defense. Seattle has the No. 2 projection on defense and the No. 4 projection on offense. Arizona's defense can't expect to get quite as many turnovers -- the Cardinals were second in the league with turnovers on 17.0 percent of drives -- but Chandler Jones will improve the pass rush. Seattle still has a problematic offensive line and needs to fill holes left by Brandon Mebane and Bruce Irvin, but the Seahawks have been consistently good for years now and there's no reason to expect something different in 2016.
Our QBASE projection system really loves No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, but rookie quarterbacks still don't have a great track record, class of 2012 aside. The Rams also have to replace two starters in the secondary, plus inside linebackerJames Laurinaitis. Combined with a very difficult schedule, it seems like a recipe for another 7-9 season, albeit one with a lot of hope for the future if Goff is as efficient as we expect.
The 49ers are seriously talking about using Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback all year. They are getting used to yet another new offensive system, Anquan Boldin is gone with no clear replacement, and the strength of the rest of the NFC West gives San Francisco the toughest projected schedule in the league. At least the defense should rebound a bit after finishing 27th in DVOA a year ago.
[h=2]Full NFC projected playoff standings[/h]Here's what the 2016 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections.
1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
4. Carolina Panthers (9-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-7)*
7. Detroit Lions (9-7)
8. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
9. Los Angeles Rams (7-9)
10. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
11. Chicago Bears (7-9)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
13. New York Giants (6-10)
14. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)
15. Washington Redskins (6-10)
16. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
*Wild-card teams
[h=2]Details on our methodology[/h]Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2013 or 2014. (You can find last year's final ratings here.)
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</article>Offensive projections incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback that's done independently of the team's analysis. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (San Francisco is No. 1) to the easiest (Tennessee).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2016, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2016." (Nonetheless, these projections will be much closer to our final forecast than they were in a similar article last May, because we overhauled our projection system last June.) Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict, injuries have a huge impact, and even the better team might lose any given game because on the bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 12-4.
In addition, when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with few teams predicted to have double-digit wins or losses. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published above don't mean that we expect the 2016 season to end with no team above 12-4.
ESPN INSIDER
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2016 season. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article.
For the most part, these are the same projected standings that Todd McShay used to build his way-too-early 2017 mock draft. There's a slight difference because I've fixed a variable that mistakenly penalized the Giants and Buccaneers for having new offensive systems. (Because the offensive coordinator became the head coach for both teams, the system stays the same.)
I looked at the AFC Wednesday, and today I'll go through the NFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2016.
Here are the results:
2. New York Giants: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 17)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 11)
4. Washington Redskins: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Without Tony Romo, the Cowboys finished 31st last year in offensive DVOA, suffering one of the 10 largest year-to-year drops in offensive DVOA since 1989. With Romo back and a healthier Dez Bryant on the field, they're almost guaranteed to rebound in 2016. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense ended just 6.0 percent of opposing drives with takeaways last season. That was dead last in the NFL and the fourth-lowest rate of any team since 1998. There's a lot of year-to-year regression in turnovers, so there's a strong chance that improves in 2016. (In 2014, the lowest teams in this stat were the Jets and Chiefs, who both turned their defenses around significantly in 2015.)
Forecasting that Dallas will return to winning is probably less controversial than forecasting that Washington will return to losing. However, Washington isn't exactly starting from greatness. Washington won a bad division at 9-7, but ranked only 15th in DVOA. That was a big improvement over the previous two seasons, when Washington was 29th (2013) and 28th (2014) in DVOA. But this means they're likely to run into the "Plexiglass Principle," which states that teams that significantly improve one year will tend to decline the next year and vice versa. In particular, the defense is unlikely to keep up its turnover rate (15.1 percent of drives, fifth in the NFL) or ability to stop short-yardage runs (49 percent conversions, the best figure in the NFL). The addition of Josh Normanis somewhat blunted by the losses of veteran defensive linemen Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton.
There are a lot of reasons to believe the Giants will improve on defense: overall trends suggest a rebound after two straight years of decline, and the defensive line in particular should improve with the additions of Olivier Vernon andDamon Harrison. But the offense has to overcome an inexperienced line with questionable depth and the loss of starting receiver Rueben Randle. A lot depends on whether Victor Cruz is finally healthy enough to play and what the Giants can expect out of him.
Our projections are also down on the Eagles. Their offensive DVOA dropped from 13th to 26th last year, but the expected rebound is somewhat blunted by the fact that our system penalizes offenses that are learning a new system from new coaches. The defense has to replace four regular starters.
[h=2]NFC North[/h]1. Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (11.8 mean wins, SOS: 28)
2. Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (9.1 mean wins, SOS: 19)
3. Detroit Lions: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins, SOS: 26)
4. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins, SOS: 27)
The whole NFC North is likely to be in playoff contention for much of the year, thanks to the NFL's rotating divisional schedule pitting them against the AFC South and NFC East.
Aaron Rodgers had ranked among the top six quarterbacks in DVOA for six straight years before he dropped to 17th last season. The falloff can't all be blamed on the absence of Jordy Nelson, but it sure will help Rodgers to have his best receiver back on the field. It's also likely that Rodgers will fix some of his other issues, bringing the Packers' offense closer to being the highly efficient unit it was for most of Rodgers' career. Our defensive projection is not as optimistic, partly because of the departure of talent such as Mike Neal and B.J. Raji. But if Rodgers can be close to the Rodgers of old, a little decline on defense won't matter.
Our projection system sees the Vikings holding onto last year's gains rather than improving significantly, but taking the next step into Super Bowl contention is certainly a valid goal for this team. In particular, the offense could benefit from getting back two starting linemen who missed all of last year with injuries, center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt.
It's a little surprising that our system doesn't forecast more decline from the Detroit offense; the retirement of Calvin Johnson is offset by Detroit doing well in various small variables such as being a strong running team in the red zone. That still leaves Detroit as a team projected to be very close to average on both sides of the ball, but it has the advantage of an easy schedule.
Chicago's defense has been consistently bad the past few years, but we're predicting improvement thanks to both natural regression toward the mean and the addition of linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. However, that improvement is balanced by an expected drop-off on offense because of the departure of Matt Forte and offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
[h=2]NFC South[/h]1. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins, SOS: 12)
2. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins, SOS: 10)
3. Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins, SOS: 6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (6.5 mean wins, SOS: 8)
It's not a surprise to see our model predict the Panthers to decline. After all, teams don't go 15-1 two years in a row. And note what we wrote about Washington and the "Plexiglass Principle" -- Carolina went from 24th in overall DVOA in 2014 to fourth in 2015, so regression is very likely. In particular, we have quite a few reasons to expect a weaker defense from the Panthers in 2016. One of the variables in our defensive projections measures the loss of defensive talent based on Pro-Football-Reference's approximate value stat. Only six teams since 2003 have lost more approximate value over replacement than the 2016 Panthers. Most of that is Josh Norman, but Carolina also needs to replace veterans Jared Allen, Roman Harper and Charles Tillman. And lastly, the Panthers led the NFL in causing turnovers, which they did on 19.6 percent of their drives last year; that number is bound to regress toward the mean in 2016.
The good news for Carolina is that the gap between the Panthers and the rest of the NFC South was so huge last season that it will be tough for the other teams to make it up even if Carolina declines as much as we expect.
The Saints are essentially the anti-Broncos. Yesterday in our forecast for the AFC, I noted that the best defenses are rarely that good for two years in a row. The same goes for the worst defenses, and the Saints had the worst defense ever measured by DVOA even after adjusting for the fact that NFL offensive levels are at an all-time high. So in the same way that we're projecting Denver as the league's best defense but unlikely to be as good as last year, we're also projecting New Orleans as the league's worst defense but unlikely to be as awful as last year. However, the Saints' offense may not be as good as we're used to, because Drew Brees is another year older and he will have neither the retired Marques Colston nor the departed Benjamin Watson to throw to.
Atlanta was a bit lucky last year, going 8-8 despite ranking just 26th in DVOA. Our forecast essentially says the Falcons are likely to have a worse record despite being a better team. The defense still won't be very good, but the offense should rebound to a level closer to past years: slightly above average. (The Falcons ranked between ninth and 14th in offensive DVOA for seven straight seasons between 2008 and 2014, then fell to 23rd last season.)
Our projections see Tampa Bay as declining a little bit on offense and improving a bit on defense, but there are subjective reasons to question both of those results. The system is expecting regression from the offense, but of course the quarterback situation is much different now than it was two years ago. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay projects to improve because it has brought in more defensive approximate value over replacement than any other team in the NFL. However, the system may be overestimating the value of these veterans. Daryl Smith will be 34 this year, Brent Grimes 33, and Robert Ayers31.
[h=2]NFC West[/h]1. Arizona Cardinals: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins, SOS: 18)
2. Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins, SOS: 3)
3. Los Angeles Rams: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins, SOS: 5)
4. San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (3.9 mean wins, SOS: 1)
More than the AFC East, this is the division that may be decided by Tom Brady's suspension for Deflategate. Seattle has finished No. 1 overall in DVOA for an astonishing four straight seasons, and the Seahawks are our No. 1 projected team for 2016 as well. But Arizona is our projected No. 2 team, and there are two huge schedule differences that benefit the Cardinals. The first one is only a problem if we're correct about Aaron Rodgers returning to greatness: Arizona's first-place finish last year means the Cardinals go to Minnesota while Seattle has to travel to Green Bay. The second one will require federal court intervention to help the Seahawks: Arizona opens the season at home against the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Patriots while Seattle has to go to Foxborough to play the Patriots with Brady in Week 10.
But overall, these are the two best teams in the league going into 2016. Arizona has the No. 3 projection on both offense and defense. Seattle has the No. 2 projection on defense and the No. 4 projection on offense. Arizona's defense can't expect to get quite as many turnovers -- the Cardinals were second in the league with turnovers on 17.0 percent of drives -- but Chandler Jones will improve the pass rush. Seattle still has a problematic offensive line and needs to fill holes left by Brandon Mebane and Bruce Irvin, but the Seahawks have been consistently good for years now and there's no reason to expect something different in 2016.
Our QBASE projection system really loves No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, but rookie quarterbacks still don't have a great track record, class of 2012 aside. The Rams also have to replace two starters in the secondary, plus inside linebackerJames Laurinaitis. Combined with a very difficult schedule, it seems like a recipe for another 7-9 season, albeit one with a lot of hope for the future if Goff is as efficient as we expect.
The 49ers are seriously talking about using Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback all year. They are getting used to yet another new offensive system, Anquan Boldin is gone with no clear replacement, and the strength of the rest of the NFC West gives San Francisco the toughest projected schedule in the league. At least the defense should rebound a bit after finishing 27th in DVOA a year ago.
[h=2]Full NFC projected playoff standings[/h]Here's what the 2016 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections.
1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
4. Carolina Panthers (9-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-7)*
7. Detroit Lions (9-7)
8. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
9. Los Angeles Rams (7-9)
10. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
11. Chicago Bears (7-9)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
13. New York Giants (6-10)
14. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)
15. Washington Redskins (6-10)
16. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
*Wild-card teams
[h=2]Details on our methodology[/h]Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2013 or 2014. (You can find last year's final ratings here.)
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Offensive projections incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback that's done independently of the team's analysis. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (San Francisco is No. 1) to the easiest (Tennessee).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2016, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2016." (Nonetheless, these projections will be much closer to our final forecast than they were in a similar article last May, because we overhauled our projection system last June.) Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict, injuries have a huge impact, and even the better team might lose any given game because on the bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 12-4.
In addition, when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with few teams predicted to have double-digit wins or losses. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published above don't mean that we expect the 2016 season to end with no team above 12-4.
