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Word.
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Messages
2,052
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Werdum -160
Souza inside distance -170
Cyborg won't start 2 -190
Anderson -3.5 +130
Maia-Brown won't start 3 +100
Maia inside distance +120
Alves inside distance -150
Marquardt-Santos starts round 2 -120
Lineker -170
Cummins inside distance +300
Trinando-Medeiros Decision -105
Chagas +370
Tukhugov -155

A couple notes:
-- I'm taking a flyer on Chagas just because I think he's good enough off his back to defend against Moraes. I also believe he will likely get the better of the stand-up.
-- I think Cummins will TKO Lil Nog and it'll probably be sad. Lil Nog isn't as shop worn as his big bro, but it's close. I would've taken Durkin at TKO at +340, but I'm a pussy and I want the safety of the possibility he beats Nog into a roll-over RNC or guillotine.
-- I apparently got a bad line earlier in the week with Lineker at -170. It climbed to about Lineker -220 and I was happy. Now, someone has bet that shit back down to -140 or so. I'm still happy with my spot, but I'm not as confident given the line movement.
-- I feel like Alves inside distance is a gift at -150. Jouban is a much better athlete than Barberena, Covington is a better wrestler, Taleb is much stronger...This is just too much for Bryan. I guess he "earned" it by beating Sage, who was dominating him for a round as well.
-- Name the best wrestler Matt Brown has ever beat. Erick Silva? Mike Pyle? Chris Cope? I think he was a beneficiary of some spectacular match-making over the span of two years - Cope, Wonderboy, Ramos, Swick, Mein, Pyle, Silva. Styles make fights, and all of these guys are perfect for him- even Wonderboy, who at that point in his career, depended fully on keeping range. Brown came inside and beat him in the clinch. Against Maia, you can't clinch.
-- I think Fabricio is better at everything than Stipe. I think he'll keep it at range and beat him in a one-sided decision with kicks and length. I try me best not to play decision bets on HW fights though. On the other end, there are only a few women i give trust for inside distance bets.

Good luck.
 

Word.
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Messages
2,052
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Adding...Mo +200

The Bellator LHW division is so strange. These guys are pretty damn similar and I think they negate each other's wrestling. I'll take the guy with more power. When Phil fights, in the fights he's not dominant he does better against pure strikers or bjj guys than wrestle-boxers (Bader, Rashad, Rumble losses, glover, machida, Magalhaes wins).
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 16, 2010
Messages
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Like the Mo pick also. Good luck and enjoy the night of fights!
 

Word.
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Messages
2,052
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Damn...Lineker is the smaller, angrier Rumble. It's like playing a video game and just keep hitting power shot left, power shot right, power shot left...
 

Member
Handicapper
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Jan 16, 2010
Messages
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Nice hit with Lineker. Played as well. Easy win. I've always liked him and thought he had top 5 potential...
 

When you're broke, you Break
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
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Font was totally outclassed ... cant believe I took the sucker FOTN bet thinking he was going to bang it out tonight
 

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Jan 16, 2010
Messages
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Font was totally outclassed ... cant believe I took the sucker FOTN bet thinking he was going to bang it out tonight
Yea that mofo ran. Corner gave him the perfect advice, jab, jab, jab, he does nothing. Scared of that power I guess...
 

Word.
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Messages
2,052
Tokens
Werdum -160 -1.6
Souza inside distance -170 +1 -.6
Cyborg won't start 2 -190 +1 +.4
Anderson -3.5 +130 -1 -.6
Maia-Brown won't start 3 +100 -1 -1.6
Maia inside distance +120 +1.2 -.4
Alves inside distance -150 -1.5 -1.9
Marquardt-Santos starts round 2 -120 -1.2 -3.1
Lineker -170 +1 -2.1
Cummins inside distance +300 -1 -3.1
Trinando-Medeiros Decision -105 +1 -2.1
Chagas +370 +0 -2.1
Tukhugov -155 -1.6 -3.7
Mo +200 -1 -4.7

5-9 -4.7

Bad night. I thought Mo won rounds 1-2 for sure, and mmadecisions.com agrees with me. I also thought Chagas won rounds 1-2 (but I'm the only one, apparently). On the other hand, they probably should've stopped Trinaldo-Medeiros and Demian Maia barely sunk in that RNC just in time. That's what happens - fun night of fights. HW is such a revolving door.
 

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