[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Cardinals-Dodgers matchup[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
For just the second time this year Sunday Night Baseball viewers get a look at the National League, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals in ESPN's evening matchup.
As projected by many, the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants enter Sunday tied for first place in the NL West, but not many predicted both teams would struggle to stay above .500. With wins in the first two games of this series, Los Angeles is in position to post its first four-game winning streak of the season, while getting back to .500 on games played at home.
For St. Louis, a loss tonight would drop it back to .500 despite entering the game with a gaudy plus-45 run differential. That spread is second-best in the National League; however, echoing a phrase that the organization and its fans are sure to be sick of this season, it considerably trails the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals send Mike Leake to the mound in an attempt to salvage the last game of the series, while the Dodgers counter with left-hander Alex Wood.
Joe Peta (3-1, plus-2.08 units) and Andrew Lange (0-4, minus-4.28 units) weigh in on the game from a betting perspective.
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Westgate line: St. Louis Cardinals (Leake) +140/Los Angeles Dodgers (Wood) -150
Over/under: 7.5
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: Although the Dodgers are the team in first place while the Cardinals languish nearly double-digit games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs, to my eye, it's St. Louis that is having the more encouraging season.
The Cardinals organization, one of the best in MLB, was key to the team remaining division champs the last two years despite having a below-average offense. The Cardinals managed the transition to a new generation of everyday players exceptionally well; now, much younger at three different positions, the Cardinals are neck and neck with the Cubs as the highest-scoring team in the majors. It's probably not going to be a concern this year, but Cubs fans shouldn't get too comfortable; St. Louis is well-equipped to battle Chicago for league dominance over the next five years.
I'm a firm believer that those smitten by the strength of the Cubs, Cardinals, Mets and Nationals six weeks into the 2016 season are foolishly overlooking the Dodgers (and to my eye, the Giants as well) as NL powers over the remaining 120-plus games. As good as the Cardinals' offense has been, there's a reason why Sunday's line is the most lopsided of the three-game series. Both teams are sending starters to the mound with unsightly 2016 ERAs but Alex Wood (4.58 ERA) is exhibiting a much better skill set than Mike Leake (5.10 ERA). Leake may be starting with more than a half-run advantage, but I'd still be willing to bet it's Wood who improves his ERA more over the remainder of the season.
When I first plugged everything into my model on Saturday night, I arrived at a fair price right in the middle of the -120/+110 line. Overnight, however, considerable action or sentiment in the direction of the Dodgers has moved the implied win expectancy of the game about 5.5 percent. That's a considerable overnight move (bordering on massive), and enough for me to make this an easy value play on the Cardinals and their right-handed-heavy lineup.
ESPN Chalk pick: St. Louis +140
Andrew Lange: Alex Wood is a prime example of what a few upticks on the fastball can do for a middle-tier starter. With most of the league well-versed on Wood's herky-jerky motion, he become fairly hittable last season. His strikeout rate dipped from 8.9 per 9 innings to 6.6, his ERA jumped a full run and I really questioned whether he was going to stick as a full-time big league starter. But Wood is now back to missing bats with nearly a strikeout per inning -- 25 over his last 18.1 IP -- and also getting ground balls as a career-high 56 percent rate. Those are good signs for a guy who is only two years removed from posting a 2.78 ERA over 171 innings.
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</article>A look at Mike Leake's peripherals reveals that they are nearly all in line with previous seasons. However, there are some concerns; Leake's hard-hit and line-drive rates are higher than normal and his ground ball rate has dipped below 50 percent, which isn't ideal for someone who doesn't fan many batters. One of my concerns this evening is that because of Leake's struggles this season, he's only averaged 87 pitches in his first six starts. Last time out, which was his best outing of the season (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Angels) he threw 113 pitches -- a mark he topped only once last season. Leake isn't a high-velocity, max-effort arm, but on regular rest, the spike in pitch count is something to be aware of.
When the overnight lines came out, Wood was reasonably priced in the playable -120 to -125 range. I had a feeling he'd get bet at some point, but 25 cents worth of steam later and the Dodgers and Wood are now -150 chalk. That's an inflated price tag and you certainly won't make much in the way of long-term profits betting the tail end of massive line moves. Los Angeles and Wood are the preferred play, but the price just isn't there.
ESPN Chalk pick: Pass
ESPN INSIDER
For just the second time this year Sunday Night Baseball viewers get a look at the National League, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals in ESPN's evening matchup.
As projected by many, the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants enter Sunday tied for first place in the NL West, but not many predicted both teams would struggle to stay above .500. With wins in the first two games of this series, Los Angeles is in position to post its first four-game winning streak of the season, while getting back to .500 on games played at home.
For St. Louis, a loss tonight would drop it back to .500 despite entering the game with a gaudy plus-45 run differential. That spread is second-best in the National League; however, echoing a phrase that the organization and its fans are sure to be sick of this season, it considerably trails the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals send Mike Leake to the mound in an attempt to salvage the last game of the series, while the Dodgers counter with left-hander Alex Wood.
Joe Peta (3-1, plus-2.08 units) and Andrew Lange (0-4, minus-4.28 units) weigh in on the game from a betting perspective.
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Over/under: 7.5
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: Although the Dodgers are the team in first place while the Cardinals languish nearly double-digit games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs, to my eye, it's St. Louis that is having the more encouraging season.
The Cardinals organization, one of the best in MLB, was key to the team remaining division champs the last two years despite having a below-average offense. The Cardinals managed the transition to a new generation of everyday players exceptionally well; now, much younger at three different positions, the Cardinals are neck and neck with the Cubs as the highest-scoring team in the majors. It's probably not going to be a concern this year, but Cubs fans shouldn't get too comfortable; St. Louis is well-equipped to battle Chicago for league dominance over the next five years.
I'm a firm believer that those smitten by the strength of the Cubs, Cardinals, Mets and Nationals six weeks into the 2016 season are foolishly overlooking the Dodgers (and to my eye, the Giants as well) as NL powers over the remaining 120-plus games. As good as the Cardinals' offense has been, there's a reason why Sunday's line is the most lopsided of the three-game series. Both teams are sending starters to the mound with unsightly 2016 ERAs but Alex Wood (4.58 ERA) is exhibiting a much better skill set than Mike Leake (5.10 ERA). Leake may be starting with more than a half-run advantage, but I'd still be willing to bet it's Wood who improves his ERA more over the remainder of the season.
When I first plugged everything into my model on Saturday night, I arrived at a fair price right in the middle of the -120/+110 line. Overnight, however, considerable action or sentiment in the direction of the Dodgers has moved the implied win expectancy of the game about 5.5 percent. That's a considerable overnight move (bordering on massive), and enough for me to make this an easy value play on the Cardinals and their right-handed-heavy lineup.
ESPN Chalk pick: St. Louis +140
Andrew Lange: Alex Wood is a prime example of what a few upticks on the fastball can do for a middle-tier starter. With most of the league well-versed on Wood's herky-jerky motion, he become fairly hittable last season. His strikeout rate dipped from 8.9 per 9 innings to 6.6, his ERA jumped a full run and I really questioned whether he was going to stick as a full-time big league starter. But Wood is now back to missing bats with nearly a strikeout per inning -- 25 over his last 18.1 IP -- and also getting ground balls as a career-high 56 percent rate. Those are good signs for a guy who is only two years removed from posting a 2.78 ERA over 171 innings.
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</article>A look at Mike Leake's peripherals reveals that they are nearly all in line with previous seasons. However, there are some concerns; Leake's hard-hit and line-drive rates are higher than normal and his ground ball rate has dipped below 50 percent, which isn't ideal for someone who doesn't fan many batters. One of my concerns this evening is that because of Leake's struggles this season, he's only averaged 87 pitches in his first six starts. Last time out, which was his best outing of the season (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Angels) he threw 113 pitches -- a mark he topped only once last season. Leake isn't a high-velocity, max-effort arm, but on regular rest, the spike in pitch count is something to be aware of.
When the overnight lines came out, Wood was reasonably priced in the playable -120 to -125 range. I had a feeling he'd get bet at some point, but 25 cents worth of steam later and the Dodgers and Wood are now -150 chalk. That's an inflated price tag and you certainly won't make much in the way of long-term profits betting the tail end of massive line moves. Los Angeles and Wood are the preferred play, but the price just isn't there.
ESPN Chalk pick: Pass
