NBA Western Conference Playoffs Betting Guide

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[h=1]NBA Western Conference finals betting guide[/h]
  • Dave Tuley

    ESPN INSIDER


  • LAS VEGAS -- The NBA's Western Conference finals tip off Monday night right where we expected: at the Golden State Warriors' Oracle Arena. However, while it looked all season like the Warriors were on a collision course with theSan Antonio Spurs to meet for the title of best in the West, their opponent instead is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder, after getting blown out in Game 1, beat the Spurs in four of the next five games, including winning twice at San Antonio, where the Spurs lost only once during the whole regular season.
    A lot is being made of the fact that the Warriors went 3-0 straight-up against the Thunder this season, but we're here to take a look from a betting perspective:
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    DATELINESSCOREBETTING RESULT
    Feb. 6Warriors -8, o/u 233.5Warriors 116-108Push/Under
    Feb. 27Warriors -3, o/u 233.5Warriors 121-118 (OT)Push/Over
    March 3Warriors -7.5/o/u 230Warriors 121-106Warriors/Under

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    Yes, the Warriors were 3-0 and there were bettors that had Golden State -7.5 in the first meeting and would say that the Warriors were 2-0-1 ATS. However, if someone backed the Thunder in all three games and was able to get +8 on the first game and +3.5 that were available in the classic second meeting, they would say the results were 1-1-1 ATS.
    The Thunder led or were tied for the lead in the fourth quarter of all three games, including the 15-point loss on March 3.
    The under was 2-1 in the regular-season meetings (and would have been 3-0 if not for overtime in the Feb. 27 game), but the over/under was set at 233.5 in the first two meetings and then 230 in the last meeting, yet is 224 for Game 1. All three final scores would have gone over this lower adjusted number.
    I'm joined by Erin Rynning in previewing the conference finals (we'll be back tomorrow for the Eastern Conference):

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    [h=2]Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors[/h]Westgate series price: Warriors -380/Thunder +320
    Westgate Game 1 lines: Warriors -7; over/under 224
    PickCenter intel

    Rynning: Give the Thunder a ton of credit for derailing the mighty Spurs and their spectacular regular-season resume, as their supreme athleticism and ability to create shots were on full display. However, their matchup advantages against the Spurs can more easily be countered by the chameleon Warriors.
    For starters, the Thunder's athleticism shined bright in their first two series against the Dallas Mavericks and Spurs. However, the Warriors are a completely different animal with their pace and stable of athletes. Against the Spurs, Kawhi Leonard could only guard one of the spectacular duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. However, the Warriors counter with a much deeper group of individual defenders.
    Meanwhile, the Thunder bigs and Andre Roberson fit nicely against San Antonio's LaMarcus Aldridge and Leonard, but the task gets much trickier against the pace, spacing and well-rounded Warriors on their end of the court. Of course, the step-up in class for the Thunder is well regarded in the betting line. Importantly, one must keep in mind this will be the toughest playoff test to date for the Warriors reaching back to last year's championship run. Whether due to injuries or other teams knocking off the more highly power-rated team, the Thunder will be the highest rated team the Warriors have faced the last two years -- a team with two future Hall of Famers.
    Figuratively, at this juncture in the season my numbers directly correspond with the markets. I expect home court to hold strong, and it won't be a surprise to see this series go deep, but the Warriors are still the more versatile and stronger defensive team.
    Picks: Lean to the home teams throughout the series; also, look to play overs in first halves.Erin Rynning

    Tuley: As pointed out in the intro, the Thunder were right there in all three games against the Warriors. While getting run over late isn't a good habit to get into, it shows that the Thunder can play with the Warriors and hopefully the experience of taking down the Spurs gives them the confidence to finish games in this series.
    I see this as a highly competitive series, especially in regards to taking the Thunder with the points in individual games (I'm not sure if I'm going to take a flier on the series price, which is up to +400 at the William Hill books here in Nevada). My colleague Rynning says his power ratings are in line with the current market, but I have the Warriors as only 2.5 points better than the Thunder, so even with Golden State's strong home court, I wouldn't set this line any higher than 6 (and would take Thunder as any kind of home underdog).


    All eyes are obviously on two-time MVP Stephen Curry, and the Thunder have had varying degrees of success against him. In the first meeting, Curry was 1-for-9 from 3-point range (his worst game of the season at Oracle). He lit it up in the middle game at OKC, as he was 12-of-16 from deep, but then he was only 5-of-15 in the most recent game. Bottom line: He's going to get his points (he averaged 35 points in the three games), but they have the quickness and length to contest some shots and make him closer to human.
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    </article>Westbrook and Durant make the Thunder roll, but OKC is actually 6-0 SU in the playoffs when Westbrook has double-digit assists (2-3 when he doesn't share as much), so I'd much rather see Durant putting up more shots and Westbrook distributing the ball more. Westbrook will certainly have the chance to get his points as well when penetrating the lane.
    Golden State has been off since Wednesday after disposing of a pesky Portland Trail Blazers team in five, while the Thunder have been off since Thursday after being taken to six games by the Spurs, but I don't see the Warriors as being any more rested. The Blazers gave them a battle and while the Warriors were officially 3-2 ATS in the series, one of those ATS wins was only due to covering in overtime -- and the Warriors were lucky to not get the series extended further.
    The Warriors went over the total in their last three games and the Thunder were 2-1 with the under in their last three against the Spurs. If you've been following the betting trends this postseason, you know that unders started incredibly hot and still lead 40-25 (61.5 percent) overall. However, overs were 13-9 in the second round as oddsmakers finally caught up and adjusted the totals lower. As mentioned above, the over/under for Game 1 is set at only 224, so I see some value in the over.
    Picks: Thunder +7 in Game 1, play ATS again in Game 2 if they lose straight-up regardless if they cover or not (if OKC pulls outright upset in Game 1, pass on Game 2 and look to play Thunder at home in Game 3); lean to the overs if the betting total remains in the low- to mid-220s.

 

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