[h=3]NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Betting Guide[/h]
Dave Tuley Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors in Game 1 of the NBA's Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night. And while these are the top two seeds in the East, they took totally opposite ways to get here.
The Cavaliers swept both the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks while the Raptors were taken to Game 7's by both the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. According to ESPN Stats & Info, this is the first Conference final in which a team that has played the minimum number of games through the first two rounds will face a team that has played the maximum. Another stat I love: the Raptors have racked up 6,905 frequent-flier miles while the Cavaliers have only accumulated 1,302.
But that's all trivial: This is ESPN Chalk's Eastern Conference Finals Betting Guide, and we're more interested in stats that can help up pick the winners of the upcoming games.
The Cavaliers are a prohibitive -1600 favorite (risk $16 for every $1 you want to profit) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook with the Raptors at +900 (profit $9 for every $1 wagered). Not too many people are giving the Raptors a chance to win the series, though ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) has Cleveland at a 69 percent chance of advancing to the NBA Finals, so the Raptors' 31 percent chance is closer to odds of 2-1, with the current 9-1 price appearing to offer a lot of value.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
A lot of people are making a big deal of the fact the Raptors won the season series 2-1, but what doesn't get mentioned as much is that Toronto had the benefit of two games at home with the home team winning/covering all three games:
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</tbody></aside>That would normally give hope to an underdog bettor like yours truly, but Cleveland has home-court advantage now. Besides, the Cavaliers are also playing their best recently as opposed to when these teams squared off months ago. I am encouraged by the fact the over was 2-1 in those earlier games with the way the teams are playing now, but I'll address that below in my picks.
I'm joined by Erin Rynning in previewing the conference finals (here was Monday's Western Conference betting guide):
[h=2]Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers[/h]Westgate series price: Cavaliers -1600/Raptors +900
Westgate Game 1 lines: Cavaliers -10.5; over/under 201.5
PickCenter intel
Rynning: The Raptors have squeaked out series wins over Indiana and Miami, but the task becomes a mountain against the Cavaliers and their plethora of scoring options. The Cavaliers are shooting 46.2 percent from the 3-point line in the playoffs and the Raptors were the second-worst 3-point defense in the NBA in the regular season at 37.3 percent, and struggled defending the 3 in the regular season against Cleveland. However, adjustments can be made to attempt to defend the 3-point line in a playoff series and it will be interesting to see how the Raptors try to slow down the Cavaliers potent playoff attack.
Still, it would seem difficult for the Cavaliers to continue to shoot at historic levels and especially at the 50 percent-plus rate they did against the Hawks. Unfortunately for the Raptors, even if they can slow down the Cavaliers on offense, their own offense will struggle to score points in this matchup. The Raptors are shooting just over 41 percent in the playoffs and are easily scouted, relying on the high usage of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
The Cavaliers favored by double digits in the opening contest would seem a tad inflated, but the situation warrants it with the Cavaliers rested and the Raptors banged-up off back-to-back seven-game series. I'll keep an eye on how the Raptors decide to defend the Cavaliers in Game 1 with a possible wager on the Raptors in Game 2.
I do expect lower-scoring games than expected -- like the Raptors have played in the playoffs until the Miami Heat lost Hassan Whiteside and had no choice but to play small. The Cavaliers still have too many answers and options for the Raptors and should get this series in five games.
Picks: Lean to the unders; pass on Game 1 spread with possibly a play on Raptors in Game 2.
Tuley: There are some trends that point to taking the underdog Raptors in Game 1: NBA playoff teams off an eight-day layoff (like the Cavaliers) are 5-6 SU in their next game, according to Elias Sports Bureau, and LeBron James' teams are 3-4 SU in Game 1s of Conference finals, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
But I'm not biting.
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</article>Cleveland has romped in its first two series openers so far this postseason, and even though I cashed with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, there were times when the Warriors were up by double digits that I wish I had passed. Another reason I'm lacking confidence in the Raptors in Game 1 is that center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 points per game and more importantly 9.1 rebounds per game) is out and I really want to watch to see how they make up for his loss against Cleveland. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to roll in Game 1 and then I'll look to take the Raptors plus the points in Game 2. I'll probably also be on the Raptors when the series moves to Toronto (hopefully with Valanciunas back in the lineup) and I'll be hoping to get around +6 in those games.
As alluded to earlier, I like the overs in this series, starting with Game 1. As ER mentioned, Cleveland is putting up historic numbers with its 3-point shooting, which only gives James more room when he drives the lane. In addition, while the Raptors' inconsistent shooting has also been well-documented, Lowry, DeRozan & Co. continue to fire away with no conscience. If they get hot, that'll help the overs, but if they're cold, the Cavaliers should be able to get a lot of points in transition and lead to high-scoring games anyway. With the last meeting of these teams having a total of 206.5, I feel like we're getting a bargain with an over/under of just 201.5 in Game 1.
Picks: Taking over 201.5 in Game 1 and leaning to overs unless bookmakers adjust; pass on Game 1 spread but taking Raptors in Game 2 and when the games are in Toronto.
Dave Tuley Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors in Game 1 of the NBA's Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night. And while these are the top two seeds in the East, they took totally opposite ways to get here.
The Cavaliers swept both the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks while the Raptors were taken to Game 7's by both the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. According to ESPN Stats & Info, this is the first Conference final in which a team that has played the minimum number of games through the first two rounds will face a team that has played the maximum. Another stat I love: the Raptors have racked up 6,905 frequent-flier miles while the Cavaliers have only accumulated 1,302.
But that's all trivial: This is ESPN Chalk's Eastern Conference Finals Betting Guide, and we're more interested in stats that can help up pick the winners of the upcoming games.
The Cavaliers are a prohibitive -1600 favorite (risk $16 for every $1 you want to profit) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook with the Raptors at +900 (profit $9 for every $1 wagered). Not too many people are giving the Raptors a chance to win the series, though ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) has Cleveland at a 69 percent chance of advancing to the NBA Finals, so the Raptors' 31 percent chance is closer to odds of 2-1, with the current 9-1 price appearing to offer a lot of value.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
A lot of people are making a big deal of the fact the Raptors won the season series 2-1, but what doesn't get mentioned as much is that Toronto had the benefit of two games at home with the home team winning/covering all three games:
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| DATE | LINES | SCORE | BETTING RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 25 | Cavaliers -3, o/u 200.5 | Raptors 103, Cavaliers 99 | Raptors/Over |
| Jan. 4 | Cavaliers -8, o/u 194 | Cavaliers 122, Raptors 100 | Cavaliers/Over |
| Feb. 26 | Cavaliers -2.5, o/u 206.5 | Raptors 99, Cavaliers 97 | Raptors/Under |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Cleveland-Toronto Meetings This Regular Season</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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I'm joined by Erin Rynning in previewing the conference finals (here was Monday's Western Conference betting guide):
[h=2]Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers[/h]Westgate series price: Cavaliers -1600/Raptors +900
Westgate Game 1 lines: Cavaliers -10.5; over/under 201.5
PickCenter intel
Rynning: The Raptors have squeaked out series wins over Indiana and Miami, but the task becomes a mountain against the Cavaliers and their plethora of scoring options. The Cavaliers are shooting 46.2 percent from the 3-point line in the playoffs and the Raptors were the second-worst 3-point defense in the NBA in the regular season at 37.3 percent, and struggled defending the 3 in the regular season against Cleveland. However, adjustments can be made to attempt to defend the 3-point line in a playoff series and it will be interesting to see how the Raptors try to slow down the Cavaliers potent playoff attack.
Still, it would seem difficult for the Cavaliers to continue to shoot at historic levels and especially at the 50 percent-plus rate they did against the Hawks. Unfortunately for the Raptors, even if they can slow down the Cavaliers on offense, their own offense will struggle to score points in this matchup. The Raptors are shooting just over 41 percent in the playoffs and are easily scouted, relying on the high usage of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
The Cavaliers favored by double digits in the opening contest would seem a tad inflated, but the situation warrants it with the Cavaliers rested and the Raptors banged-up off back-to-back seven-game series. I'll keep an eye on how the Raptors decide to defend the Cavaliers in Game 1 with a possible wager on the Raptors in Game 2.
I do expect lower-scoring games than expected -- like the Raptors have played in the playoffs until the Miami Heat lost Hassan Whiteside and had no choice but to play small. The Cavaliers still have too many answers and options for the Raptors and should get this series in five games.
Picks: Lean to the unders; pass on Game 1 spread with possibly a play on Raptors in Game 2.
Tuley: There are some trends that point to taking the underdog Raptors in Game 1: NBA playoff teams off an eight-day layoff (like the Cavaliers) are 5-6 SU in their next game, according to Elias Sports Bureau, and LeBron James' teams are 3-4 SU in Game 1s of Conference finals, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
But I'm not biting.
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</article>Cleveland has romped in its first two series openers so far this postseason, and even though I cashed with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, there were times when the Warriors were up by double digits that I wish I had passed. Another reason I'm lacking confidence in the Raptors in Game 1 is that center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 points per game and more importantly 9.1 rebounds per game) is out and I really want to watch to see how they make up for his loss against Cleveland. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to roll in Game 1 and then I'll look to take the Raptors plus the points in Game 2. I'll probably also be on the Raptors when the series moves to Toronto (hopefully with Valanciunas back in the lineup) and I'll be hoping to get around +6 in those games.
As alluded to earlier, I like the overs in this series, starting with Game 1. As ER mentioned, Cleveland is putting up historic numbers with its 3-point shooting, which only gives James more room when he drives the lane. In addition, while the Raptors' inconsistent shooting has also been well-documented, Lowry, DeRozan & Co. continue to fire away with no conscience. If they get hot, that'll help the overs, but if they're cold, the Cavaliers should be able to get a lot of points in transition and lead to high-scoring games anyway. With the last meeting of these teams having a total of 206.5, I feel like we're getting a bargain with an over/under of just 201.5 in Game 1.
Picks: Taking over 201.5 in Game 1 and leaning to overs unless bookmakers adjust; pass on Game 1 spread but taking Raptors in Game 2 and when the games are in Toronto.
