[h=1]Two AFC teams make up the list of Super Bowl LI sleepers[/h]KC JoynerESPN Insider
The most memorable teams in NFL history are the powerhouse Super Bowl champions -- the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1980s San Francisco 49ers, the 1990s Dallas Cowboys.
As enjoyable as those teams were to watch, it's worth remembering the NFL has had its fair share of surprise Super Bowl winners over the years: the 1980 Oakland Raiders, 1981 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2001 New England Patriots.
Since the NFL doesn't appear to have a team in the middle of a true dynasty, the time looks ripe for another team to come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl. Which clubs fall into this category? Two teams fit the bill of not being perceived as playoff contenders, yet having the upside to make it to Super Bowl LI and win the Lombardi Trophy.
[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]It might seem odd to call a team that made the playoffs last season a Super Bowl sleeper, but the Texans' middle-of-the-pack ranking in the current 2017 Super Bowl odds indicate their playoff berth failed to change the perception that this club is not a title contender.
That should not be the mindset surrounding this team, as the Texans are well situated to mimic the 2015 Denver Broncos' championship path.
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Last season, Houston posted upper-tier totals in a wide variety of important defensive metrics. The Texans ranked third in percentage of opponents' drives that ended in a score (27.3 percent), sixth in points allowed per drive (1.5), fourth in Total QBR allowed (44.0) and tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (5.0). No defense forced teams to end a drive with a punt more frequently (51 percent), or allowed a lower third down conversion percentage (28.5 percent).
As long as the Texans' defense plays at or near that level, Houston has an outside chance of going deep into the playoffs, but what puts this team at the top of the Super Bowl sleepers list is its offensive improvements.
The most notable of these is free-agent QB signee Brock Osweiler. He was inconsistent in his first extended stint under center in the NFL, but it should be pointed out that Osweiler had a Total QBR of 67 or higher in three of the eight games he played in. For perspective, consider that Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota, two quarterbacks making their first professional starts last season, each posted only four games of that type of QBR caliber in 2015 despite having a larger volume of starts.
Osweiler will have the benefit of throwing a ton of passes to DeAndre Hopkins, who has been an elite workhorse over the past two seasons in terms of targets (316, ranked fourth), receptions (187, tied for sixth) and yards (2,731, fifth). The addition of speedster Will Fuller, who finished first in the nation in vertical receiving touchdowns (14 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and second in vertical receiving yards (988) despite ranking tied for 29th in vertical targets (50), could give Osweiler one of the best downfield receiving batteries in the league.
The Texans also improved their blocking wall by signing Jeff Allen, a top-rated free-agent offensive lineman and drafting Nick Martin, the second-highest-rated center on the Scouts, Inc. draft board. Houston also brought in potential playmakers via the draft, selecting Braxton Miller and Tyler Ervin. These additions are primary reasons why ESPN's Todd McShay listed the Texans as one of the most improved teams after the 2016 NFL draft.
If these personnel additions help move the offense to another tier and the defense plays anywhere near last season's level, Houston has a solid chance of following in the Broncos' path to Super Bowl success.
[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]Despite having the longest playoff drought in the league, Bills fans are fired up for where this team is headed, as the club is now over the 55,000 mark in season-ticket holders.
It's easy to see why the fans feel this way, as there are many factors pointing toward Buffalo being an up-and-coming powerhouse.
The first is that the Bills could have arguably the best rushing game in the NFL. Buffalo led the league last season in rushing yards (2,432), yards per rush (4.8) and yards per rush before first defensive contact (3.3) and were tied for first in rushing touchdowns (19). The Bills also finished fourth in the league in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a rushing game is when the ball carriers are given good blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt).
The amazing part of that last figure is the team's 9.1 GBYPA figure was actually higher than LeSean McCoy's 8.9 GBYPA. Considering the fact that McCoy ranked tied for ninth among qualifying running backs in GBYPA, it indicates this club has an elite ground game regardless of who carries the ball. That trend should continue since the Bills were able to keep their offensive line intact.
Buffalo is also a lot closer to having an elite passing attack than it might seem. Last season, Tyrod Taylor had eight games with a Total QBR of 70 or higher. He tied for fourth in that measurement, sharing the ranking with Cam Newton,Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton, some very strong company.
The latest in a string of injuries to receiver Sammy Watkins is something of a concern, but Watkins is due to return in time for the regular-season opener.
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</article>It should also be noted Watkins was not the only pass-catcher Taylor had success with on vertical throws. Taylor threw a total of 36 vertical passes toMarquise Goodwin, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan, Greg Salas and Karlos Williamslast season. He completed 19 of those aerials for 449 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 98.7 Total QBR. This shows Taylor is starting to develop the talent all top passers have, which is finding ways to get upper-tier production out of less than upper-tier talents.
Taylor also benefits from being able to put the same level of trust into the offensive line as Buffalo's ball carriers do. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Bills ranked tied for seventh (50.6 percent) in the pass protection metric that measures how often an offense controls the line of scrimmage on a dropback.
The Bills can also lay claim to a very good pass defense, as the team ranked 12th in Total QBR allowed (50.4), ninth in Total QBR on vertical passes (66.3) and ninth in yards allowed per attempt (6.8).
That leaves rush defense as the only area where Buffalo needs an upgrade, and the Bills looked to get that via the draft thanks to the additions of Reggie Ragland (a terrific plugger candidate) and Adolphus Washington (a value third-round pick according to Mel Kiper Jr.). Buffalo could also get some mid- to late-season rush defense help after first-round selection Shaq Lawson returns fromhis shoulder surgery.
With all of those bases covered, Buffalo stands an excellent chance of ending that postseason drought and making a run at its fifth Super Bowl berth.
The most memorable teams in NFL history are the powerhouse Super Bowl champions -- the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1980s San Francisco 49ers, the 1990s Dallas Cowboys.
As enjoyable as those teams were to watch, it's worth remembering the NFL has had its fair share of surprise Super Bowl winners over the years: the 1980 Oakland Raiders, 1981 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2001 New England Patriots.
Since the NFL doesn't appear to have a team in the middle of a true dynasty, the time looks ripe for another team to come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl. Which clubs fall into this category? Two teams fit the bill of not being perceived as playoff contenders, yet having the upside to make it to Super Bowl LI and win the Lombardi Trophy.
[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]It might seem odd to call a team that made the playoffs last season a Super Bowl sleeper, but the Texans' middle-of-the-pack ranking in the current 2017 Super Bowl odds indicate their playoff berth failed to change the perception that this club is not a title contender.
That should not be the mindset surrounding this team, as the Texans are well situated to mimic the 2015 Denver Broncos' championship path.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Last season, Houston posted upper-tier totals in a wide variety of important defensive metrics. The Texans ranked third in percentage of opponents' drives that ended in a score (27.3 percent), sixth in points allowed per drive (1.5), fourth in Total QBR allowed (44.0) and tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (5.0). No defense forced teams to end a drive with a punt more frequently (51 percent), or allowed a lower third down conversion percentage (28.5 percent).
As long as the Texans' defense plays at or near that level, Houston has an outside chance of going deep into the playoffs, but what puts this team at the top of the Super Bowl sleepers list is its offensive improvements.
The most notable of these is free-agent QB signee Brock Osweiler. He was inconsistent in his first extended stint under center in the NFL, but it should be pointed out that Osweiler had a Total QBR of 67 or higher in three of the eight games he played in. For perspective, consider that Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota, two quarterbacks making their first professional starts last season, each posted only four games of that type of QBR caliber in 2015 despite having a larger volume of starts.
Osweiler will have the benefit of throwing a ton of passes to DeAndre Hopkins, who has been an elite workhorse over the past two seasons in terms of targets (316, ranked fourth), receptions (187, tied for sixth) and yards (2,731, fifth). The addition of speedster Will Fuller, who finished first in the nation in vertical receiving touchdowns (14 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and second in vertical receiving yards (988) despite ranking tied for 29th in vertical targets (50), could give Osweiler one of the best downfield receiving batteries in the league.
The Texans also improved their blocking wall by signing Jeff Allen, a top-rated free-agent offensive lineman and drafting Nick Martin, the second-highest-rated center on the Scouts, Inc. draft board. Houston also brought in potential playmakers via the draft, selecting Braxton Miller and Tyler Ervin. These additions are primary reasons why ESPN's Todd McShay listed the Texans as one of the most improved teams after the 2016 NFL draft.
If these personnel additions help move the offense to another tier and the defense plays anywhere near last season's level, Houston has a solid chance of following in the Broncos' path to Super Bowl success.
[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]Despite having the longest playoff drought in the league, Bills fans are fired up for where this team is headed, as the club is now over the 55,000 mark in season-ticket holders.
It's easy to see why the fans feel this way, as there are many factors pointing toward Buffalo being an up-and-coming powerhouse.
The first is that the Bills could have arguably the best rushing game in the NFL. Buffalo led the league last season in rushing yards (2,432), yards per rush (4.8) and yards per rush before first defensive contact (3.3) and were tied for first in rushing touchdowns (19). The Bills also finished fourth in the league in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a rushing game is when the ball carriers are given good blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt).
The amazing part of that last figure is the team's 9.1 GBYPA figure was actually higher than LeSean McCoy's 8.9 GBYPA. Considering the fact that McCoy ranked tied for ninth among qualifying running backs in GBYPA, it indicates this club has an elite ground game regardless of who carries the ball. That trend should continue since the Bills were able to keep their offensive line intact.
Buffalo is also a lot closer to having an elite passing attack than it might seem. Last season, Tyrod Taylor had eight games with a Total QBR of 70 or higher. He tied for fourth in that measurement, sharing the ranking with Cam Newton,Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton, some very strong company.
The latest in a string of injuries to receiver Sammy Watkins is something of a concern, but Watkins is due to return in time for the regular-season opener.
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</article>It should also be noted Watkins was not the only pass-catcher Taylor had success with on vertical throws. Taylor threw a total of 36 vertical passes toMarquise Goodwin, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan, Greg Salas and Karlos Williamslast season. He completed 19 of those aerials for 449 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 98.7 Total QBR. This shows Taylor is starting to develop the talent all top passers have, which is finding ways to get upper-tier production out of less than upper-tier talents.
Taylor also benefits from being able to put the same level of trust into the offensive line as Buffalo's ball carriers do. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Bills ranked tied for seventh (50.6 percent) in the pass protection metric that measures how often an offense controls the line of scrimmage on a dropback.
The Bills can also lay claim to a very good pass defense, as the team ranked 12th in Total QBR allowed (50.4), ninth in Total QBR on vertical passes (66.3) and ninth in yards allowed per attempt (6.8).
That leaves rush defense as the only area where Buffalo needs an upgrade, and the Bills looked to get that via the draft thanks to the additions of Reggie Ragland (a terrific plugger candidate) and Adolphus Washington (a value third-round pick according to Mel Kiper Jr.). Buffalo could also get some mid- to late-season rush defense help after first-round selection Shaq Lawson returns fromhis shoulder surgery.
With all of those bases covered, Buffalo stands an excellent chance of ending that postseason drought and making a run at its fifth Super Bowl berth.
